SMM July 30: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets mostly rose, with only SHFE copper, SHFE zinc, and LME copper falling. SHFE copper fell 0.26%, SHFE zinc fell 0.06%, LME copper fell 0.16%, LME nickel led the gains with a 1.15% rise, and the rest of the metals rose within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.45%, and cast aluminum main contract rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel rose 0.59%, rebar led the declines with a 1.14% drop, hot-rolled coil and iron ore both fell around 0.7%, with hot-rolled coil down 0.79% and iron ore down 0.74%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal edged up 0.04%, while coke fell 0.57%. Precious metals: Overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.66% and COMEX silver gained 0.64%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.9% and SHFE silver surged 1.84%. A Reuters survey showed that after gold prices pulled back sharply from their record high in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since end-2023, though most still expect central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability to provide support. The median forecast for gold prices in 2026 from the survey of 29 analysts and traders over the past three weeks was $4,509 per ounce. That was down from $4,916 three months earlier and marked the first downgrade in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 was $4,610, versus $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595/oz in January, then suffered a sharp pullback in Q2 as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and pushed up interest rate hike expectations, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the geopolitical conflict erupted, spot gold has dropped about 22%. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 6:42 on July 30, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [China’s total social logistics value exceeded 180 trillion yuan in H1] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released logistics operation data for H1 this year yesterday (July 29). In H1, logistics demand continued to expand, marked by structural optimization and momentum shift. China’s total social logistics value reached 181.1 trillion yuan in H1, up 5.1% YoY, outpacing GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, demonstrating the logistics sector’s enhanced role in supporting and driving national economic growth. By quarter, growth was 6.2% in Q1 and 4.4% in Q2, maintaining a steady yet progressing trend. (CCTV News) [CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period] The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, together with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and 17 other departments, jointly released the National Climate Change Response 15th Five-Year Plan. According to the Plan, by 2030, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% from 2025, and CO2 emissions per unit of product in sectors covered by the national carbon emission trading market will drop by around 3% from 2025. A national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market that is credible, transparent, methodologically unified, broadly participatory and aligned with international standards will be established; a product carbon footprint management system will be largely in place; monitoring and control of non-CO2 greenhouse gases will be strengthened, with a reduction capacity of 30 million tonnes of CO2e; the climate adaptation work system will be refined; climate-adaptive society construction will achieve phased progress; and awareness and capabilities in tackling climate change will continue to improve. China’s influence, guidance, shaping power and moral appeal in global climate governance will significantly increase. (from Wall Street CN APP) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.59% to 100.82. The US Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with a 9-3 vote, as three regional Fed bank presidents voted for a rate hike. Fed Chairman Warsh said the Fed’s reduced forward guidance on policy intentions has given the central bank more opportunity to listen to the market rather than unilaterally guide market expectations. Warsh noted that US Treasury yields had risen over the past few months, which he believed reflected solid economic fundamentals. He said: “Economic output has been robust. Capital spending and productivity have performed strongly. The labor market is stable and remains resilient. The bond market is sending many of the same messages.” (Jin10 Data) Fed Chairman Warsh said that since the June meeting, financial markets have already priced in much of the Fed’s tightening effects, so he disagreed with describing this decision to hold rates as a “pause.” Warsh said: “I would not characterize today’s decision as a pause in any sense. If you had to label it a pause, then the market’s performance says the exact opposite.” Since the Fed’s mid-June meeting, US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields have each risen about 20bp. Warsh noted that during this period, financial markets did not “pause” adjustments; instead, they continuously repriced based on inflation data and economic growth: on the one hand, inflation data influenced expectations; on the other, strong growth pushed both nominal and real rates higher. He said: “The Fed today did not explicitly adjust the policy rate—that’s correct. But I think this is just the beginning of the policy story, not the end.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 36.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 63.2% and a cumulative 50bp hike is 0% (vs. 17.8%, 60.2%, and 22% respectively before the Fed decision). By October, the probability of unchanged rates is 26.2%, with a cumulative 25bp hike at 55.6%, a cumulative 50bp hike at 18.2%, and a cumulative 75bp hike at 0% (vs. 11.9%, 46.1%, 34.7%, and 7.3% before the decision). (Jin10 Data APP) After the Fed announced it held rates steady on Wednesday, Citi still expects the Fed to cut rates later this year. Economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark noted in a client report that Warsh’s press conference sent two dovish signals: first, he said the Fed would assess progress on curbing inflation using a wide range of data; second, he hinted that rising real yields had already tightened financial conditions to some extent. Citi continues to expect rising unemployment in coming months, which will lead the Fed to cut rates in October, December, and January next year. (Wall Street CN) Macro: Today will see the release of the US Fed interest rate decision (as of July 29), US initial jobless claims for the week ended July 25, US June core PCE price index YoY, US June personal spending MoM, US Q2 advance annualized real GDP QoQ, US Q2 advance real personal consumption QoQ, US Q2 advance annualized core PCE QoQ, US June core PCE MoM; Eurozone Q2 advance GDP YoY, Eurozone June unemployment rate, Eurozone July industrial sentiment, Eurozone July economic sentiment; France Q2 advance GDP YoY; Switzerland July KOF leading indicator; UK BoE rate decision (as of July 30); Germany Q2 advance non-adjusted GDP YoY, Germany July preliminary CPI MoM, and other data. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic surged, with WTI up 6.74% and Brent up 7.35%. With the resumption of major airstrikes in the Middle East, hopes that the US-Israel and Iran conflict would soon end were dashed. Meanwhile, industry data showing a decline in US crude inventories provided further support. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that the renewal of military strikes in the Middle East and renewed emphasis by Iranian officials on controlling shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz—where oil flows are sluggish—are again pushing up oil prices. US President Trump said hours before the Fed decision that the US would carry out retaliatory strikes against Iran, driving prices higher thereafter. DBS energy research head Suvro Sarkar said that with the volatile Middle East conflict, Brent crude will continue to swing wildly in the $80-$100 per barrel range in the near term. (Jin10 Data APP) Kpler head of commodity research Matt Smith said global fuel supplies are extremely tight, which is encouraging refiners to run at full throttle to capture unusually strong margins. After supply disruptions from the Ukraine and Iran wars, the fuel market has almost no buffer. “Super-sized refining margins continue to drive refiners to run as hard as they can, leading to significant draws in crude oil inventories.” (Wall Street CN) US refiners are converting crude into gasoline and diesel at a pace not seen since before the COVID-19 pandemic, but amid a historic fuel shortage crisis, even running at full tilt is unlikely to curb surging prices in the near term. According to EIA data, US refiners processed an average of 17 million barrels per day of crude oil last week, running flat out to meet global and domestic fuel demand. That was the highest weekly average since September 2019. In the Midwest, refineries even set an all-time high for weekly crude processing. (Wall Street CN)

SMM, July 29: On July 29, precious metals futures in and outside China showed mediocre performance, while A-share precious metals equities moved relatively independently, with futures and equities diverging. As the US Fed’s interest rate meeting approached, trading in precious metals futures turned cautious, with growing wait-and-see sentiment and neither bulls nor bears establishing a consistent direction, keeping prices moving sideways. The A-share precious metals sector trended relatively strong. On one hand, the sector had undergone earlier corrections, leaving room for valuation repair; on the other, the market traded on the medium- and long-term trend of gold prices and miners’ profit expectations, while positive H1 earnings previews from precious metals companies like Chifeng Gold also boosted market sentiment. Futures market: As of around 14:13 on July 29, COMEX gold fell 0.13% to $4,033.4/oz; SHFE gold main contract fell 0.59% to 883.12 yuan/g; COMEX silver rose 0.97% to $58.085/oz; SHFE silver main contract fell 0.27% to 14,181 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 0.79% to 14,120 yuan/kg. Stock market: At the close on July 29, the precious metals sector rose 2.58%. Among individual stocks, Western Gold surged over 5%, and Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver&Tin, Shandong Humon Smelting, Shandong Gold, Hunan Silver, and Shanjin International led the gains. News [Chifeng Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 54%-61% YoY] Chifeng Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 1.7–1.78 billion yuan, up 54%–61% YoY. [Zhaojin Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 347.48%–436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 200–240 million yuan, up 347.48%–436.98% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 80–116 million yuan, up 490.44%–756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 81.06%–122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 570–700 million yuan, up 81.06%–122.36% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 272–402 million yuan, down 2.03%–33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 280.16%–333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 13, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 500–570 million yuan, up 280.16%–333.39% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 490–580 million yuan, up 172.96%–223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: Expected H1 2026 Net Profit at 4.1 Billion-4.6 Billion Yuan, Up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to parent to be 4.1 billion to 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY; deducted non-recurring profit is expected to be 4.05 billion to 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%-53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On July 29, the SMM #1 silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 14,038 yuan/kg, up 0.4% from the previous trading day. Spot market side, the month-end supply-demand dual weakness pattern persisted. Suppliers showed growing sentiment to hold back from selling, with some offers leaning toward premiums, while downstream buyers preferred negotiated deals at slight discounts, though transactions were basically maintained near parity today. Early session quotes in the Shanghai area were mainly centered around TD parity to a premium of 10 yuan/kg, with deals leaning toward the lower end. Affected by seasonal factors, silver ingot production pulled back slightly this month, and both domestic and overseas demand was sluggish. Overall, offers remained firm but transactions were limited. In the Shenzhen area, some national standard material was concentrated around a discount of 5 yuan/kg against the TD contract to parity; low-priced cargoes existed but did not cause significant disruption to spot trade. Today's premium and discount quote for the spot market against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract was at a discount of 60 to 50 yuan/kg. Overall, the market focus was on the US Fed's July policy meeting and the digestion of subsequent policy signals. Spot market side, the month-end supply-demand dual weakness pattern persisted, with deals maintained near parity. Market Voices Outlook for precious metals from some institutions is as follows: A Reuters survey showed that analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since late 2023, following a sharp pullback from record highs in January, but most still expect support from central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability. The median forecast for gold prices in 2026 from the survey of 29 analysts and traders over the past three weeks was $4,509 per ounce. That was down from $4,916 three months ago and marked the first forecast cut in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 was $4,610, compared with $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January but suffered a sharp pullback in Q2, posting their worst quarter since 2013, as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and pushed up rate hike expectations. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jin10 Data APP) ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey pointed out that gold prices rose on Monday, driven by a sharp decline in oil prices that eased inflation concerns and weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields. The sharp drop in oil prices on Monday eased inflation concerns and the prospect of further monetary tightening. This move followed a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week's Fed meeting. Markets are now focusing on the US Fed and the upcoming US inflation data for further guidance on the rate outlook. If yields remain subdued, gold should continue to find support around current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could cap further upside room in the near term. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain subdued in Q3, despite the third quarter historically being a peak season for seasonal stockpiling. This is due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts, which are curbing fresh import demand. However, Citi maintains its 0-3 month short-term gold price target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the US Fed turning less hawkish; many near-term risks could still cause gold prices to revisit lower levels, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed stance. UBS gold strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic on gold’s medium- to long-term outlook. She noted in a commentary that gold prices have been rising since the start of this week, with mainland China and Hong Kong gold stocks surging about 20% over three days, which is a positive signal. “We believe market confidence in gold is starting to improve and we continue to expect gold prices to rebound from current levels by year-end,” she said. The UBS Global team remains optimistic on gold’s medium-term outlook and forecasts gold prices will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 by end-2027, respectively. She noted that key events to watch next are the US Fed’s policy tone at the late-July FOMC meeting and further developments in the Middle East. (Jin10 Data APP) ANZ Research analysts said in a report that physical gold demand for the metal and central bank buying are supporting the gold market. They added that while gold faces near-term headwinds from hawkish Fed expectations and a firm US dollar, investment positioning in gold looks light after months of ETF outflows, suggesting that further downside may be limited. High interest rate environments usually drag on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs stated that despite pressure from expectations of a tighter US Fed stance, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong, and according to the bank's estimates, central banks bought 81 mt of gold in May, with a three-month average monthly purchase volume of 67 mt, well above the average of 17 mt before 2022. Goldman analysts said, "We believe the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings will persist for years as they hedge geopolitical and financial risks through reserve diversification." The bank forecasts average monthly purchases of 50 mt for this year and 40 mt for next year. (Jin10 Data APP) Soojin Kim, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, "Recent price movements indicate that the market is paying more attention to the possibility that US interest rates will stay high for longer, rather than gold's traditional safe-haven demand. This makes gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a widespread deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jin10 Data APP) Fidelity International, an asset manager, said it plans to rebuild its gold positions, which were reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold's long-term drivers remain strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, "We plan to rebuild our gold positions; it is just a question of timing." He said he reduced his gold allocation to a neutral level during January-February, just as gold's multi-year bull run came to an abrupt end. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic of a return to a bull market would only be undermined if "governments return to fiscal discipline and central banks truly commit to pushing inflation back down," but "I don't think we are in that world right now." Samson added that continued gold purchases by central banks—a key driver of the previous bull run—will continue to support gold prices. A research report from Guoxin Securities shows that after a deep pullback in H1, gold prices are gradually showing signs of bottoming near $4,000, with only an event catalyst needed to fuel a rally. It suggests building positions near $4,000 in batches on dips and avoiding chasing rallies. The core allocation logic: First, valuations are at historically low levels, offering a prominent margin of safety. After the deep pullback in H1, the valuation levels of gold mining companies have plunged from the beginning of the year to low levels, offering high odds. Going forward, besides a valuation recovery, they are expected to also benefit from price elasticity brought by rising gold prices. Second, the earnings elasticity advantage is significant. Gold stocks act as an amplifier for gold prices—ore mining costs are rigid, and gold price increases directly translate into profit growth, with earnings elasticity far exceeding the gold price rise itself. A research report from Huayuan Securities notes: In the medium term, the market’s core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of “inflation stickiness resilience exceeding expectations → the US Fed maintaining high interest rates for an extended period → repeated intensification of interest rate hike expectations within the year.” The gold price center is still dominated by US real Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and the overall trend is likely to continue to consolidate on a subdued note. Currently, ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East are stuck in repeated games, with significant differences between the parties on core demands such as troop withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility inspection mechanisms, and control rights and passage fee rules for the Strait of Hormuz waterway. The recurring nature of geopolitical conflicts continues to disrupt global crude oil supply expectations, and the upside risk of energy prices may further consolidate inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the US Fed’s tight policy stance. At the same time, the synchronous rise of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has formed a dual headwind. Combined with gold’s safe-haven attribute temporarily giving way to interest rate pricing logic, the upside room for gold prices may continue to be constrained. Key events to watch in the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict situation and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the US Fed interest rate decision to be announced on July 30; 3) the US June PCE to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold’s upward logic has not weakened; rather, it has been further strengthened amid changes in the global macro and geopolitical landscape. 1) The constraints of the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying great power competition are undermining the stability of the US dollar credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets towards diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into an important asset for hedging sovereign credit risk, geopolitical fragmentation risk, and the risk of restructuring the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks still provide solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC’s continued increase in holdings further validates the official sector’s long-term allocation demand. 3) In the late cycle of the US economy, it faces multiple constraints of high interest rates, credit contraction, and a slowdown in growth. In the future, whether the US Fed cuts interest rates due to economic slowdown or is forced to maintain high rates for longer due to inflation stickiness, gold has strong long-term allocation value: the former favors a decline in real interest rates, while the latter strengthens safe-haven and credit risk resistance demand. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window in the medium and long term, and the price center is expected to continue shifting upward amid the reshaping of the global macro and geopolitical landscape. Recommended Reading:

On July 15, 2026, Ukrainian pellet producer Ferrexpo released its production report and trading update for Q2 2026. The report shows: Production: Total iron ore production in Q2 2026 was 963,000 mt , up 63% QoQ but down 24% YoY. Of this, pellet production was 860,000 mt, up 64% QoQ and 5% YoY; iron ore concentrates (Fe 67%) production was 103,000 mt, up 52% QoQ but down 77% YoY. Within pellet products, direct reduction (DR) grade pellet (Fe 67%) production was 163,000 mt; high-grade pellet (Fe 65%) production was 697,000 mt, up 33% QoQ but down 15% YoY. The 63% QoQ increase in total iron ore production in Q2 was mainly because production had largely been suspended in Q1 due to attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and stabilized production resumed in Q2. However, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, logistics disruptions, and other factors, the group currently still operates only one pellet production line. The company stated that in Q2, it improved its sales mix by exporting DR-grade pellets, and continued to manage client distribution and product mix under constrained conditions. Meanwhile, the group still faces operational pressures from the regional conflict, logistics restrictions, labor shortages, and the suspension of VAT refunds, and continues to protect working capital through cost-cutting, procurement controls, and the suspension of non-essential capital expenditures. Future plans : Ferrexpo stated that the board sees equity financing as the most feasible option at present, with a minimum fundraising target of $100 million, to support working capital, near-term operational needs, production ramp-up, and previously deferred stripping, mining, and capital expenditures. Based on current productivity, energy price forecasts, and the optimized sales mix, the group expects that its available net cash can support operations under current constrained conditions until early Q4 2026.

SMM, July 13 – Metals Market: In overnight trading last Friday, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME aluminum led the declines with a 2.07% drop, while SHFE nickel led the gains with a 0.78% rise. The remaining metals all had changes within 1%. The main alumina contract fell 0.4%, and the main cast aluminum contract fell 0.78%. In overnight trading last Friday, ferrous metals fell except for stainless steel and iron ore. Stainless steel rose 0.03%, and iron ore rose 0.27%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both edged down. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 1.03%, and coke fell 1.15%. In overnight trading last Friday, for precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, with a weekly edge up of 0.08%. COMEX silver fell 0.74%, with a weekly decline of 1.25%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.56%, with a weekly decline of 0.83%, and SHFE silver fell 0.58%, with a weekly decline of 2.63%. HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing expectations of a hawkish turn in Fed monetary policy and a stronger US dollar that continues to pressure gold prices. The bank cut its 2026 average price forecast from $4,864 per ounce to $4,560, and its 2027 forecast from $5,000 to $4,925. HSBC expects gold prices to fluctuate in a range of $3,800 to $4,700 for the rest of 2026, ending the year near $4,750. (Wall Street CN) As of 7:17 on July 11, last Friday’s overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestically: [State Council Executive Meeting: Promote the Scaled Development of Emerging Pillar Industries Across the Entire Chain, Strengthen Basic Research and Key Software and Hardware Breakthroughs] According to CCTV, Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting that studied work related to cultivating emerging pillar industries. The meeting pointed out the need to promote the scaled development of emerging pillar industries across the entire chain, strengthen basic research and breakthroughs in key software and hardware, and accelerate technological iteration and ecosystem improvement. It also highlighted the need to optimize regulatory models and guide localities to develop according to their own conditions and in differentiated ways. (Jinshi Data APP) [Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs: Implement Temporary Export Ban Management on Helium] The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement, stating that in accordance with relevant provisions of the Foreign Trade Law of the People’s Republic of China, they have decided to implement temporary export ban management on helium (Customs commodity code: 2804290010). This announcement takes effect from the date of issuance, and subsequent adjustments will be announced separately. (Jinshi Data APP) [National Electricity Load Hits a Record High of 1.518 Billion kW] Since the beginning of this year, the national economy has continued to develop towards new and better directions, with end-user electrification levels steadily rising. Combined with recent high temperatures in many parts of the country, electricity loads have rapidly climbed. On July 10, China’s nationwide electricity load hit a record high for the first time this year, peaking at 1.518 billion kW, an increase of 10 million kW from the historical extreme. Since the start of summer, the south China regional power grid and multiple provincial grids, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Ningxia, Gansu, Fujian and Shaanxi, have set new record highs in electricity load more than 20 times cumulatively. The repeated record highs in electricity demand this year were driven primarily by three factors: First, steady growth in industrial electricity consumption. High-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing are booming, and electricity use by emerging industries such as NEVs, energy storage and computing equipment continues to expand. Second, relatively rapid growth in service sector electricity consumption. Since the beginning of this year, the YoY growth rate of electricity consumption in the battery swapping and charging service industry and the internet data service industry has both exceeded 40%. Third, high temperatures have pushed up electricity loads. As residents’ living standards continue to improve, the proportion of air-conditioning cooling load in the national total is approaching 30%, and in some provinces it exceeds 40%. (National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)) [National Energy Administration: The share of non-fossil energy consumption will increase by an average of about 1 percentage point per annum by 2028] The National Energy Administration issued the “Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026–2028).” The plan proposes that, by 2028, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will increase by an average of about 1 percentage point per annum; the coal consumption rate of coal-fired power units will be reasonably controlled, and the proportion of coal-fired capacity achieving the current energy efficiency benchmark level will strive to increase by 15 percentage points; a number of zero-carbon and low-carbon coal mining areas and oil regions will be established; support will be given to establishing a number of zero-carbon industrial parks, with significant progress made in energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries and continuously improved levels of green energy use. The plan proposes vigorously promoting energy saving and carbon reduction in thermal power. It will steadily and orderly shut down a batch of coal-fired power units of 300,000 kW class and below where conditions permit, while encouraging the construction of replacement units meeting next-generation coal power standards; promote the implementation of a number of supercritical/ultra-supercritical cross-generational upgrades and retrofits for 600,000 kW class coal-fired units. Support will be given to implementing zero-carbon and low-carbon fuel co-firing and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) retrofit construction for units where conditions allow, with carbon emission levels per kWh after retrofitting expected to be reduced by about 10%. It will implement a batch of coal power, gas power and new energy integration projects, supporting coal power and new energy in achieving integrated carbon reduction effects through methods such as coupled peak shaving and peak supply via thermal storage and energy storage, and integrated collection and transmission. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar side: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.96, posting a weekly gain of 0.05%. The Fed’s semi-annual report showed that in 2026, US economic activity maintained robust expansion overall, primarily driven by high-tech investment and government spending. Factory output grew strongly due to AI-related data center investments, and production capacity continued to improve. However, the housing market stalled, and the external economy was weighed down by the Middle East conflict and tariffs, resulting in sluggish growth. The labour market was generally stable, with both wages and productivity increasing, but slowing immigration led to a decline in labour supply, while small businesses and households still faced relatively tight credit conditions. Inflation remained elevated and firmed further in spring, with asset prices above historical norms. The financial system was resilient overall, with ample bank reserves, and the private credit market continued to function normally despite some redemption pressures. Long-term inflation expectations remained well anchored near the 2% target, although the uncertainty brought by the Iran conflict was a primary risk. (Jin10 Data App) The report noted that the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained about twice the 2% target as of this May. This was also the first monetary policy report released since the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office. Warsh will testify before the House and Senate committees on Tuesday and Wednesday this week respectively, undergoing routine mid-year review on monetary policy. (Wall Street CN) According to CME “Fed Watch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 33.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 31.0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 18.0%. (Jin10 Data App) Other currencies: According to a Reuters report, three sources familiar with the Bank of Japan’s thinking said the BOJ plans to keep interest rates unchanged in July but will maintain its policy guidance, committing to continue pushing ahead with the rate hike process. One source said, “With oil prices falling, downside risks to the economy have diminished somewhat. But the high cost of past imports will continue to exert upward pressure on prices.” Two other sources expressed similar views. They also stated that the BOJ may raise its FY2026 economic growth forecast in its July quarterly report and will continue to watch for inflation overshoot risks, as cost increases from a weak yen and strong AI demand partially offset the impact of falling oil prices. (Jin10 Data App) ING economists Marieke Blom and Amrita Naik Nimbalkar said in a report that if the eurozone savings rate falls to pre-pandemic levels, it could unlock goods and services demand worth approximately 1% of GDP. In Q1 of this year, household savings stood at 14.3% of disposable income, higher than the pre-pandemic five-year average of 12.5%. In the US, the savings rate in the last quarter of 2025 was 10.2%, a level which could add nearly 2% to eurozone GDP. Consumption is expected to remain weak as higher mortgage rates, slowing credit growth and precautionary savings weigh on spending. However, they said a shift from bank deposits to investments could lay the foundation for stronger spending and domestic demand in the coming years. (Jin10 Data App) On the macro front: This week, China will release data including June trade balance in US dollar terms, June trade balance, June YoY exports and imports, Q2 GDP YoY, June total retail sales YoY, June industrial added value above designated size YoY, June nationwide electricity consumption YoY, and June nationwide electricity consumption. The US will release data including June unadjusted CPI YoY, June seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, June seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, June unadjusted core CPI YoY, June PPI YoY, June PPI MoM, July NY Empire State manufacturing index, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, June retail sales MoM, July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, June NFIB small business optimism index, ADP employment change weekly for the week ending June 27, July NAHB housing market index, May business inventories MoM, June pending home sales index MoM, June annualized housing starts total, June building permits total, June import price index MoM, June industrial output MoM, July preliminary one-year inflation expectations, and July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The Eurozone will release data including May industrial output MoM, May seasonally adjusted trade balance, May seasonally adjusted current account, June final CPI YoY, and June final CPI MoM. The UK will release data including May three-month GDP MoM, May manufacturing output MoM, May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and May industrial output MoM. Data such as Canada’s May wholesale sales MoM and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision as of July 15 will also be released. In addition, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on H1 2026 import and export situation; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance; the National Energy Administration will release nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. China’s refined oil products will see a new pricing adjustment window open. Fed Governor Waller will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at the hearing on the “Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report”; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs at the hearing on the “Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report.” On July 16, the Fed will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak; Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy. Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak; the Bank of Canada will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and BoC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil side: Overnight last Friday, oil prices on both benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 0.79% and Brent crude down 1.42%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude rose 4.11% and Brent crude rose 4.3%, together ending a prior four-week losing streak. Markets are still pinning hopes on when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen for navigation. Notably, after the US and Iran conflict escalated this week, the weekly oil price shed its four-week losing streak, gaining over 4% for the week. According to CCTV News, on Friday, July 10, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform “Truth Social,” stating that Iran wanted to continue “negotiations” with the US, and the US had agreed to continue negotiations. Trump also said the US had clearly informed Iran that the ceasefire was over. Subsequently, Xinhua News Agency, citing US media reports, said a new round of US and Iran negotiations may be held in Switzerland this week. However, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency, sources close to the Iranian negotiating team said the claim that Iran and the US would hold a new round of talks this week was untrue. According to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on Friday that Iran has never sought to negotiate with the US but agreed to a visit by mediators to Iran. (Wall Street CN) CCTV reporters learned from the Iranian side that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi will lead a diplomatic delegation to visit Oman on the 11th. During the visit, the two sides plan to engage in dialogue and exchange views on bilateral relations and the regional situation, especially the current conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) Data released on the 10th by international market services firm Kpler showed that on July 9, the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz area fell to 22 from 30 the previous day, marking the second consecutive day of declining strait traffic volume. Kpler said this data includes both commercial and non-commercial vessels, with commercial vessel traffic slightly higher than non-commercial. “The renewed escalation of US-Iran military confrontation has weakened market confidence that diplomatic efforts can bring stability to the situation in the near term.” (Xinhua News Agency) Barclays: Risks to the forecasts of $96/bbl and $85/bbl for Brent crude oil prices in 2026 and 2027 respectively are fairly balanced. This week, OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report (specific release time of the monthly report is pending, typically published around 18-21 Beijing time).

I. Key Points In H1 2026, nickel prices exhibited wide fluctuations characterized by a “rebound from lows—consolidation at highs—pullback and consolidation” pattern. The most-traded LME nickel contract surged from $14,000/mt at the beginning of the year to near $20,000 in May, before pulling back to $16,000-17,000 in July; the most-traded SHFE nickel contract climbed from 110,000 yuan/mt to above 150,000 yuan/mt, and then retreated to 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt. The driving logic of this market move was the intertwined resonance of three main themes: a shift in Indonesia’s resource policies, repeated fluctuations in global macro liquidity expectations, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on raw material costs. The center of nickel prices did rise compared to 2025, but the “shadow of surplus” has not dissipated. In H2 2026, the key variables for tracking nickel prices are as follows: First, the approval results of Indonesia’s RKAB quota revision in July. A significant increase in the quota would substantially narrow the supply deficit and weigh on nickel prices. Second, the Fed’s policy path — whether the hawkish signal from the June dot plot will persist — which affects the US dollar index and the valuation center of commodities. Third, sulphur supply and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which determines the cost support strength along the MHP–nickel sulphate–refined nickel chain. Fourth, demand from stainless steel and NEV ternary power batteries. Fifth, the pace of global visible inventory destocking. Sustained destocking would serve as a real support signal, while high inventories would limit price elasticity. Under a neutral scenario, LME nickel prices are expected to trade in the range of $15,500-17,500/mt in H2. II. Macro Environment – Reversal of Liquidity Expectations, Substantial Impact of Geopolitical Costs, and the ‘Dual Strength’ Pattern of the RMB 1. Fed Policy Path: ‘From Dovish to Hawkish’ At the beginning of the year, the market widely expected 50-100 bp of rate cuts in H1 2026, and the US dollar index fell below 97 at one point, creating a relatively loose liquidity environment. However, mid-year, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance surprised the market. The June meeting kept rates unchanged and the dot plot signaled a bias toward rate hikes, leading to a systematic revision of the previously priced “dovish delivery” logic. This directly weighed on the valuation of industrial metals such as nickel, serving as a key macro trigger for the nickel price decline in June. 2. Geopolitical Conflicts Expanded from ‘Safe-Haven Trades’ to ‘Real Cost Shocks’ The Middle East situation (tensions among the US, Israel and Iran, and disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz) not only pushed up energy and safe-haven premiums, but also, through the critical link of sulphur supply, directly raised the production cost of Indonesia’s MHP (each mt of MHP in metal content consumes about 10 mt of sulphur), forming the core driver of the pulse-like surge in nickel prices in May. After a ceasefire agreement was reached between the US and Iran in mid-June, energy and safe-haven premiums receded, leading to a peak and subsequent pullback in commodities, confirming the dual impact of geopolitical variables on nickel prices. 3. China’s Macroeconomy and RMB ‘Dual Strength’ Provide a Unique Offset Against a generally stronger US dollar, the onshore RMB bucked the trend, appreciating from 6.98 to 6.79 (a gain of about 2.9%). The relative strength of the RMB, with the exchange rate declining (USD/CNY fell), caused import costs to drop sharply, opening the import window and generating arbitrage profits. However, as large volumes of imported nickel flowed into the domestic market, the spot supply of nickel plates in China increased, accelerating the pace of inventory buildup and weighing on domestic prices. At the same time, LME nickel inventories decreased, leading to a repair of the SHFE/LME nickel price ratio, and the import window closed again in May. III. Indonesia's Industrial Policy—Systemic Transformation from "Expanding Capacity" to "Controlling the Chain to Raise Prices" In H1 2026, Indonesia's nickel industry policy completed a strategic shift, systematically deploying a policy package centered on "controlling supply, stabilizing prices, and enhancing resource added value," which became the core fundamental variable driving wide fluctuations in nickel prices. 1. Significant tightening of total RKAB quotas and tilted allocation structure At the beginning of the year, Indonesia's ESDM announced that the 2026 nickel ore quota would be drastically cut from 379 million wmt in 2025 to 270 million wmt. The world's largest single nickel mine project, WBN, saw its 2026 quota suffer a "cliff-like" reduction; its quota was exhausted in May, leading to full-scale production cuts and shutdowns, stoking persistent concerns over tight supply in H1. The Indonesian authorities have clarified that July 1 to 31, 2026 will be the mid-year application period for supplementary RKAB quotas, prioritizing compliant miners with integrated domestic downstream smelting capacity (such as supporting NPI or HPAL projects). The mid-year policy game over RKAB quotas is intensifying. 2. HPM pricing formula reform shifts from single nickel pricing to multi-element comprehensive pricing The new formula effective April 15 incorporates associated elements such as iron, cobalt, and chromium into the value component for the first time. Indonesia sought to recapture the undervalued value of associated resources into the pricing system, raising benchmark prices for nickel ore and intermediate products across the cost side. However, this reform met strong opposition from the domestic smelting industry, which argued that it would further squeeze smelting profits amid already surging sulfur and energy costs. 3. Indonesian government officially releases new export control regulations for ferronickel (FeNi) and NPI In July, Indonesia further strengthened export supervision of high-value-added nickel products under Finance Minister Regulation (KMK) No.32/MK/BC/2026 (implementing Trade Minister Regulation No.17/2026). The new regulation targets products under HS Code Ex.7202.60.00, including ferronickel (FeNi) ingots and lumps with nickel content ≥8%, sponge ferronickel (Sponge FeNi) and granular ferronickel (Nugget FeNi) with nickel content ≥4%, as well as low-grade ferronickel products with 2% ≤ Ni <4% and iron content ≥75% (covering some NPI products). Export requires a surveyor's report (LS) and relevant export licenses; from January 1, 2027, export will generally only be allowed through state-owned export enterprises (BUMN Ekspor), with exemptions under specific circumstances. Overall, Indonesia is currently tightening quotas, raising taxes and fees, and imposing export controls to elevate resource value, seeking to keep nickel prices within its officially recognized desired range ($19,000-20,000/mt) over the long term. On the other hand, it must balance stability of the industry chain and foreign investor confidence in actual implementation, thus exhibiting a game-like characteristic of "tight first then loose, adjusting while implementing."The extreme policy uncertainty was one of the core reasons behind the wide fluctuations in nickel prices in H1. IV. Changes in Nickel Intermediate Product Raw Materials: Restructuring of the Cost Transmission Chain 1. MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte: A Dynamic Game Dominated by "Auxiliary Material Costs" There are three main production routes for nickel sulphate raw materials: MHP (hydrometallurgy): the dominant route with the largest long-term growth, but highly dependent on sulphur; high-grade nickel matte (pyrometallurgy RKEF conversion / oxygen-enriched side-blowing route): an alternative route with low dependence on sulphur and relatively stable cost elasticity; nickel briquette dissolution: the least economical, feasible only within specific price spread windows. The sharp fluctuations in sulphur prices in H1 reshaped the cost structure of the entire nickel industry chain. Producing one mt in metal content of MHP requires approximately 10 mt of sulphur, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted Indonesia’s sulphur import channels, forcing Huayou Cobalt’s Huafei Nickel-Cobalt to cut production on some lines starting in May. Sulphur prices surged, with the SMM sulphur CIF Indonesia price peaking at $1,300/mt, and the cost shock was transmitted step by step along the “sulphur—MHP—nickel sulphate—electrodeposited nickel” chain, becoming one of the core drivers behind the rapid nickel price rise in May. The high-grade nickel matte route, relying on pyrometallurgy, is far less dependent on sulphur than MHP. Consequently, during the sulphur price spike, high-grade nickel matte’s cost advantage over MHP widened significantly, creating direct substitution pressure on MHP’s market share. In terms of production trends, Indonesia’s MHP production edged up about 0.02% YoY to 206,000 mt in metal content in January-June 2026. Over the same period, high-grade nickel matte posted the most impressive growth, with production up about 123% YoY to 185,000 mt in metal content, strengthening its position in the competition for nickel sulphate raw materials. In the medium and long term, however, once sulphur supply normalizes and MHP costs pull back, the MHP route, with its scale effects and relatively mature cost curve, will reclaim its dominant share of the nickel sulphate raw material market; after all, MHP projects’ capacity base is far larger than that of high-grade nickel matte, and its cobalt by-product also provides a substantial marginal revenue contribution (about $4,500/mt Ni). 2. Production Capacity Switching Game Between High-Grade Nickel Matte and NPI High-grade nickel matte and NPI share the same RKEF production lines and laterite nickel ore resources, differing only in whether a sulphidation conversion stage is added at the end. The conversion decision is essentially a profit-maximization problem: when the marginal revenue of high-grade nickel matte relative to NPI covers the additional equipment and process losses of sulphidation conversion, lines switch to high-grade nickel matte; otherwise, they tend toward NPI. The conversion profit chart shows that profit for NPI-to-high-grade-nickel-matte conversion appeared only in April-May. After MHP production cuts in May, the monthly nickel sulphate raw material deficit was about 8,000 mt Ni, theoretically requiring increased high-grade nickel matte production to fill. However, due to RKAB quota constraints and the continued decline in NPI feed grade, integrated enterprises prioritized supplying stainless steel, making it difficult for high-grade nickel matte to offset the MHP raw material shortfall. This was a key reason why nickel sulphate prices remained firm even after refined nickel prices fell sharply in May. 5. Refined Nickel Supply-Demand Pattern: High Inventory vs. Structural Tightness Expectations 1. Supply Side: Electrodeposited Nickel Capacity Continues to Expand, Production Hits Repeated Records The most certain trend on the supply side is the sustained release of electrodeposited nickel capacity and production in China and Indonesia. According to SMM data, from January to June 2026, China’s refined nickel production was 215,000 mt, a YoY growth rate of 9%; Indonesia’s refined nickel production was 56,000 mt, a YoY growth rate of 97%. Meanwhile, at the beginning of 2026, China’s refined nickel trade pattern underwent a temporary reversal. Previously, benefiting from the explosion in electrodeposited nickel capacity, China had once been expanding its net exports of refined nickel. However, entering Q1 2026, as the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets opened up and the import arbitrage window was activated, China turned back into a net importer of refined nickel, with net imports exceeding 80,000 mt in January-April. 2. Demand Side: New Energy Recovery, Stainless Steel Support, and Steady Alloy & Special Steel In H1 2026, stainless steel, the largest downstream application of nickel, maintained mild growth. Total stainless steel production in China and Indonesia from January to June was approximately 23 million mt, up about 2% YoY. Steel mills maintained relatively high operating rates throughout H1, with stable apparent consumption. In the new energy (ternary battery) sector, nickel demand saw a strong recovery. From January to June, China’s ternary cathode precursor production was 528,000 mt, up 32% YoY; ternary cathode material production was 493,000 mt, up 40% YoY. Alloy & special steel and electroplating, although accounting for a relatively low share of total primary nickel consumption, played a critical role in refined nickel demand in H1 due to their irreplaceability. From January to June, China’s total refined nickel demand was approximately 140,000 mt, up 9% YoY. Military and aerospace demand strengthened, while high-end manufacturing demand remained steady with moderate growth. 3. Inventory Side: Global Visible Inventory Remains at Historical Highs Despite wild swings in nickel prices in H1, global visible nickel inventory remained at relatively high historical levels. LME nickel inventory fluctuated in the range of 270,000-280,000 mt for an extended period. China’s social inventory and exchange warrants experienced significant buildup. As of July, SMM refined nickel social inventory reached 130,000 mt, with total global inventory hitting a high of 497,000 mt. High visible inventory posed a significant constraint on nickel price rises. In June, after digesting supply disruption narratives, the market refocused on the fundamental reality of “high inventory and lackluster demand,” and nickel prices pulled back from a temporary high to around $16,100/mt. 6. H2 2026 Risk Alerts and Nickel Price Forecasts Based on the logic of H1, nickel price trends in H2 are expected to maintain a fundamental pattern dominated by policy gaming, with macro factors amplifying volatility. The following variables merit close monitoring: 1. The final outcome of the RKAB quota revision approval in Indonesia in July; 2. whether the US Fed's policy path in H2 will continue its hawkish stance; 3. whether sulfur supply can substantially return to normal, and whether there is a risk of repeated disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz situation; 4. whether end-use demand from stainless steel and new energy sectors can show a substantial improvement; 5. the destocking pace of global visible inventory. Based on the above price influencing factors, a scenario analysis for nickel prices is conducted: Bearish scenario (quotas being more accommodative than expected): quota increase ≥30% + sulfur pullback + high inventory pressure → LME nickel $14,000—$16,000/mt. Neutral scenario (highest probability): quota slightly increased but still tight + sulfur consolidates at highs → LME nickel $15,500—$17,500/mt. Bullish scenario (tight quotas + secondary cost surge): quotas continue to tighten + export controls + repeated geopolitical tensions push up sulfur → LME nickel $17,000—$19,000/mt.

1 July, 2026 Executive summary In one of the most dramatic starts to any year, gold soared to record highs in January, crossing above US$5,500/oz intraday before dipping below US$4,000/oz in late June. Down roughly 7% year-to-date, gold nonetheless ranks among the top performers over the past year, as other assets play catch-up. The first half of 2026 showed that gold remains sensitive to heightened geopolitical concerns and abrupt shifts in investor sentiment. It also showcased the growing relevance of Asian markets in gold price discovery. At current levels, gold’s price is broadly in line with a global backdrop of moderate growth, cooling but still elevated inflation, and expectations of further – but limited – central bank tightening. Under these conditions, gold will likely stay relatively rangebound (±5%). But the stage is set for a possible breakout. On the upside, clear catalysts – a worsening economy or renewed geopolitical shock, a shift towards lower interest-rate expectations, or a wave of dip buying – could reignite gold’s momentum and lift it back towards US$4,500/oz or above. If the signals are strong, gold could push even higher. Conversely, an environment of resilient growth, rising yields, and calmer markets could see gold slip further – though a fall of more than 10% from current levels may be tempered by bargain-hunting demand. Meanwhile, enduring central bank demand and policy shifts in key markets like India are additional wildcards that could subtly influence gold’s path in the second half. Chart 1: Gold’s current price is in line with macro consensus expectations but deviations from this environment can resume gold’s upward trend or bring price consolidation H2 2026 implied gold performance based on hypothetical macroeconomic scenarios* Sources: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, Oxford Economics, World Gold Council; Disclaimer *Historical data based on the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD as of 26 June 2026. Ranges are not price forecasts but hypothetical illustrations of the potential scenario outcomes based on our Gold Valuation Framework . ‘Macro consensus’ implies a range between -5% and 5%; ‘Uptrend’ implies 5% to 20% upside; ‘Price consolidation’ implies 5% to 15% downside. The reference point is the average LBMA Gold Price for the week ending 26 June 2026. For more details, see Table 3 . Login or register to keep reading... Login or register to read the text, view charts and download the files.. Registration is free, quick and easy. It gives you access to all downloads on this website. source： https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-mid-year-outlook-2026