Published: Jun 16, 2026 - 11:32 PM (Kitco News) – Gold’s 26% decline during the Iran conflict came from a boost to the dollar, yields and equities which overwhelmed the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal, but persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and central bank demand remain intact, and gold prices will still reach nearly $4,800 in 2026 and $4,900 in 2027, according to Barclays. In a research note published Monday, the UK banking giant’s cross-asset research team led by Lefteris Farmakis and Themistoklis Fiotakis said gold’s three-month selloff was driven by the stronger U.S. dollar, white-hot equity markets absorbing all the available risk capital, and the unwinding of leveraged gold positions, with Russian and Turkish central bank gold sales also contributing to the weakness. The analysts said gold’s slide from its January peak to its June trough reflected a normalization of real interest rates, markets pricing out Fed rate cuts this year, and the short-term appeal of rising stocks detracting from gold’s investment appeal. The Barclays team calculated that the rise in the dollar index and the 10% S&P 500 rally accounted for 10% of the gold price decline, with the remainder coming from position unwinding in the metals markets. The analysts said these factors are temporary, however, and that gold’s structural drivers — persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and continued reserve diversification — are still intact, and they will reassert themselves as the geopolitical stress related to the Hormuz crisis dissipates. They characterized these drivers as “slow-moving variables whose influence accumulates over time,” which is why they were ill-suited to support gold prices during the short-term shock of the Iranian crisis. Barclays calculated that every percentage-point increase in inflation gives gold a 5% uplift, and they believe the inflationary impulse of the Iran energy shock will be supportive. The bank estimates gold’s fair value price currently sits at $4,150 per ounce, and they expect a rebound now that the Iran conflict appears to be winding down. The Barclays team said they now anticipate a reassertion of the dollar’s downward trend, a return to consistent central bank buying and sustained upward pressure on inflation from higher energy prices. Barclays said they are maintaining their 2026 and 2027 gold price forecasts at $4,791 and $4,900 per ounce, but warned that there may still be some short-term mark-to-market downside. The analysts also recommended exposure to gold mining stocks, including Endeavour, Hochschild, Fresnillo, Newmont and Agnico Eagle. “Recent price gyrations notwithstanding, if there is a period when gold ought to be trading at a premium, it is now,” they said. Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-16/barclays-sees-gold-hitting-4791-2026-4900-2027-iran-correction-fades

June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jinshi Data APP) [RBA holds rates steady as expected, but warns rate hikes may not be over] The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy is slowing despite tighter financial conditions, but warned it could hike again if needed to control inflation. The RBA said inflation remains high and the central bank will do whatever is necessary to bring it down, "including by raising the cash rate target further if needed." Markets had already priced in a hold, as domestic inflation, consumption, and employment data continued to soften; meanwhile, the Middle East peace deal and moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks. The Board said in its statement: "The resolution of the Middle East conflict is still at an early stage, and there remain plausible scenarios where inflation is above, and activity is below, the expectations set out in the May baseline forecasts. It will take some time for global oil supply issues to be resolved, which will continue to put upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation." The unanimous decision was largely in line with expectations, with swap markets pricing in around a 30% chance of an RBA rate hike in August and only 16 basis points of tightening for the full year—equivalent to less than one hike. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US May housing starts annualized, US May building permits, US May import price index month-over-month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, and other data. Also watch for: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology holds a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The RBA announces its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. On the crude oil front: As of 11:39, crude prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. With the Trump administration about to complete the plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels, which is only around a third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the US's flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson said the government is managing the reserve in accordance with its intended use, which is to help stabilize the oil market, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the US more energy-secure. (Jin10 Data App) Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, down from a previous forecast of $100 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, a decline of $15 from the earlier estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for the region's production recovery has been moved forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues still need to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but this is a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict and boosting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz," they said, adding, "Production is expected to resume gradually from mid-July, with output anticipated to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and the remainder early in 2027." (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

At 4:15 PM on June 8, 2026, a ladle explosion at the SMS-1 steelmaking shop of Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP) — operated by Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL) — unleashed molten metal at over 1,500°C onto the working platform below Caster-2. According to a preliminary report by India's Chief Inspector of Factories, the cause was a sudden release of gas entrapped within the liquid steel, which ruptured the ladle seal before the sliding gate was opened, triggering a catastrophic spill.

Fri, May 22, 2026 at 9:56 PM GMT+8 JPMorgan has reduced its gold price forecasts for 2026, pointing to softer short-term demand conditions, although the bank continues to hold a bullish longer-term outlook and still expects gold to climb toward $6,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year. The bank lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from a previous estimate of $5,708, citing weaker investor participation and subdued market positioning in the near term. According to JPMorgan, gold is currently trading within a narrow technical range between its 200-day moving average near $4,340 per ounce and its 50-day moving average around $4,730 per ounce, while futures market activity and ETF inflows remain relatively muted. “Gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment,” analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote, adding that concerns over the possibility of Federal Reserve interest rate increases in response to energy-driven inflation are limiting investor confidence in the short term. Despite the downgrade to its forecasts, JPMorgan stressed that it views the recent weakness as a temporary pause rather than a fundamental change in trend. The bank said its constructive long-term thesis — based on fiscal risks, currency debasement concerns, geopolitical fragmentation and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policymaking — remains intact, but is “on hold until more clarity arrives around a resolution of the Iran conflict.” One of the key developments JPMorgan is monitoring is a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which the bank’s oil analysts expect could occur in June. Analysts believe such a development would ease inflation-related risks and begin reversing recent gains in the U.S. dollar and real bond yields, potentially triggering a recovery in gold prices toward technical resistance levels between $4,900 and $5,100 per ounce. The bank also expects investors who previously reduced gold exposure to gradually return to the market, supporting a rebound in demand during the second half of the year. JPMorgan reduced its forecast for central bank gold purchases in 2026 to 640 tonnes from 800 tonnes previously, after officially reported net buying dropped to just 16 tonnes during the first quarter amid increased selling activity. However, including unreported purchases, total central bank buying still reached 244 tonnes during the quarter, based on estimates from the World Gold Council and Metals Focus. The bank additionally cut its forecast for ETF inflows to around 400 tonnes for the full year from an earlier projection of 580 tonnes, although it noted that global ETF holdings remain up by 108 tonnes since the start of the year. Analysts said the largest risk to their outlook would be a scenario in which strong U.S. labour market conditions and rising inflation force the Federal Reserve into a prolonged cycle of interest rate hikes, potentially leading to sustained outflows from Western gold-backed ETFs. Source： https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/goldman-maintains-bullish-gold-outlook-141040865.html

May 17, 2026 HSBC has increased its silver price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, although the bank continues to expect limited upside for the precious metal over the medium term. HSBC now projects silver will average $75 per troy ounce in 2026 and $68 per ounce in 2027, compared with previous forecasts of $68.25 and $57, respectively. Silver Rally Fueled by Safe-Haven Demand and Tight Supply Silver surged to a record nominal high of $121 per ounce in late January, supported by soaring gold prices, constrained supply conditions and strong safe-haven demand linked to tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions. The metal later pulled back sharply to around $64 per ounce in early February following a conflict-driven rise in the U.S. dollar and weakness in gold prices, before recovering to trade above $86 per ounce. HSBC Sees Smaller Supply Deficits Ahead Despite raising its price outlook, HSBC maintained a cautious stance, arguing that shrinking supply deficits and softer industrial and jewellery demand are likely to prevent sustained gains. The bank expects the global silver market deficit to narrow to 73 million ounces in 2026 from 143 million ounces in 2025, before tightening further to 25 million ounces in 2027 as mine production and recycling supply increase. “Moderating deficits, in our view, will not be sufficient to propel silver sharply higher for prolonged periods,” said James Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC. The bank expects prices to weaken during the second half of both 2026 and 2027. Industrial and Jewellery Demand Expected to Ease Industrial demand, which accounts for more than half of global silver consumption, declined to 657 million ounces in 2025 from a record 679 million ounces the previous year. HSBC said manufacturers have increasingly sought to reduce or substitute silver usage in response to elevated prices, and the bank expects that trend to continue. The bank forecasts industrial silver demand will decline further to 642 million ounces in 2026 and 618 million ounces in 2027. Jewellery demand is also projected to fall to 157 million ounces this year from 189 million ounces in 2025. Supply Growth Seen Supporting Market Rebalancing On the supply side, HSBC expects mine production to remain broadly unchanged at 848 million ounces in 2026 before rising to 868 million ounces in 2027. Recycling supply is forecast to increase to 216 million ounces this year from 197 million ounces in 2025. Dollar Weakness and Geopolitics Could Offer Support James Steel said expectations for a weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could continue to provide some support for silver prices. However, he cautioned that “the gold:silver ratio is likely to widen, allowing silver to ease even if gold rallies.” HSBC set year-end silver price targets of $70 per ounce for 2026 and $65 per ounce for 2027. Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/hsbc-raises-silver-forecasts-for-2026-and-2027-but-warns-upside-may-be-limited

Published：May 13, 2026 The World Bank recently revised its precious metals outlook for 2026. The group now anticipates this basket of commodities to rise collectively by 42% in 2026. This represents a significant upward shift in projections, primarily fueled by the escalating Middle East conflict, rampant energy supply disruptions, dampened global growth, and heightened financial uncertainty. Precious Metals Lead the Commodity Complex In January 2026, the World Bank issued a commodities report that predicted a positive jump in its precious metals index for the year. This grouping holds gold, silver, and platinum, notably excluding palladium. Within Q1 alone, each asset in this basket of precious metals soared above the group’s expectations. Furthermore, each of these metals climbed to record highs in the early innings of the year. Gold prices shot up beyond $5,400/oz. Silver exploded to $116/oz. Platinum prices jumped to $2,770/oz. In late April, the World Bank issued another commodities report raising its precious metals outlook. Now, the group projects this collection of metals will surge by 42% throughout 2026, compared to the averages in 2025. Crucially, precious metals are projected to outperform nearly all other commodities, including base metals, fertilizer, and even energy prices. The global bank’s forecasts position silver as the highest-performing metal in 2026, with platinum as a close second. While gold is also expected to rise significantly, the yellow metal’s already elevated value means smaller percentage gains. Why the World Bank Expects Precious Metals to Rise A handful of long-running and newly forming factors are propelling the World Bank’s precious metals predictions higher for 2026. This fuel is a combination of geopolitical, macroeconomic, and fiscal policy issues: 1. Geopolitical Safe-Haven Demand Among the more pressing and immediate tailwinds for precious metals is war in Iran , which has spilt over into the broader Middle East region. The conflict has effectively choked off the Hormuz Strait, where nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows through. Drone and artillery attacks on various energy installations throughout the Gulf States further complicate the energy crisis. In response, investors have been actively rotating into safe-haven assets, such as precious metals, to offset the economically damaging effects of the oil shock and broader energy shortage. Historically, gold has consistently shown a tendency to perform well during periods of geopolitical turmoil and a loss of confidence in fiat systems. 2. Inflationary Energy Shock March marked the single largest inflation-adjusted quarterly rise in oil since 1988, per the Energy Information Administration . Throughout Q1, Brent crude nearly doubled, leaping from $61 to $118 per barrel. In March alone, liquid natural gas costs rose by 59% in European markets and by 94% in Asia. This collective surge in energy prices threatens to drive global inflation higher as loftier fuel costs drive up prices in virtually all sectors. The World Bank revised its inflation forecasts for Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) to a staggering 5.1%. Once again, precious metals stand to gain, especially gold, which has a proven track record going back centuries for keeping pace with inflation . 3. Market Volatility & Policy Uncertainty The international financial institution further warns that the combination of geopolitical instability and rising inflation threatens to undermine market confidence and fiscal policy direction. Mainstream assets heavily tied to fiat currencies tend to wane during periods of high uncertainty, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets . Gold demand is likely to increase from central banks, major financial institutions, and retail investors as traditional assets struggle. 4. Slowing Growth & Stagflation Risks At the same time, EMDE inflation is expected to rise, and growth across most economies is projected to fall, creating a one-two punch of economic hardship. This trend is playing out in advanced economies, too, with the U.S. gross domestic product hitting only 0.7% in Q4 2025 . The economy recovered slightly in Q1 2026, reaching 2%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis , but it remains far from ideal levels. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis The alarming trifecta of slowing growth, rising inflation, and soaring commodity prices has the World Bank cautioning about the elevated odds of stagflation . In this challenging economic climate, all the tailwinds for precious metals would only intensify. Precious Metals Forecasts Remain Elevated Although precious metals have moderated since their early-year highs, experts across various sectors remain bullish on the upward potential of these commodities. Most notably, 2026 gold price forecasts remain above $6,000/oz. Meanwhile, silver price predictions for the year sit near $105/oz. These positive expectations fall right in line with the World Bank’s upward revision of its earlier predictions, signaling a strong potential for further growth among these key precious metals. Navigate Global Turmoil with Our Free Precious Metals Guide If you’re interested in learning more about how you can strategically position your portfolio to take advantage of these precious metals, grab a FREE copy of our Precious Metals Investment Guide . It covers everything you need to know about buying, holding, and managing physical gold and silver to protect your wealth. Source： https://www.sbcgold.com/blog/world-bank-sees-precious-metals-surging-42-in-2026-amid-global-turmoil/