June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US housing starts annualized for May, US building permits total for May, US import price index month-over-month for May, the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision as of June 16, Germany’s June ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the Eurozone’s June ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, and the Bank of Japan’s target rate as of June 16, among other data. Also in focus: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:39, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. As the Trump administration is about to complete its plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease surging fuel prices triggered by the war with Iran, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established in the early 1970s after the Arab oil embargo—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near a record low. If the plan is completed, it would be the second-largest release in the reserve’s history, leaving the reserve at about 243 million barrels, roughly one-third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces America’s flexibility to cope with future supply disruptions. A DOE spokesperson said the department is managing the reserve in line with its intended purpose: helping to stabilize oil markets, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the country more energy secure. (Jin10 Data APP) Morgan Stanley has sharply cut its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to revive regional production and boost supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, compared with a previous forecast of $100, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, down $15 from the prior estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for a Middle East production recovery has been brought forward by one to two weeks. “Many issues remain to be negotiated and key risks persist, but this is an important step toward easing the conflict and increasing oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz,” they said. They added: "Production is expected to gradually recover from mid-July. We anticipate 50% of production will resume by September, 80% by December, and the remainder will be gradually restored in early 2027." (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at a low of $1,965/mt, fluctuating upward during Asian trading hours; entering the European session, it touched a high of $1,981/mt, then gave back some gains towards the close, eventually ending at $1,968.5/mt, up 0.08%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,240 yuan/mt, dipping to a session low of 16,210 yuan/mt early on before edging up to a high of 16,315 yuan/mt, finally settling at 16,265 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. On the macro front: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to a 43-year low. Middle East situation – Trump: Will allow Iran to conduct low-level uranium enrichment. May or may not attend the agreement signing on the 19th. The strait will fully open on Friday. Importantly, oil prices have dropped sharply while the stock market is rising. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice to launch a three-year campaign to tackle energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries. SAFE: In May, foreign-invested enterprises' dividend and profit distribution expenditures increased seasonally, and foreign investors were net buyers of domestic stocks and bonds overall. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead reversed course and rebounded, with suppliers selling along with the market. Some offered wider discounts from last Friday, but some smelters, with low inventory, remained relatively firm in their pricing. Mainstream production region primary lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt, EXW. For secondary lead, smelters had divergent attitudes toward selling. Secondary refined lead quotations against SMM #1 lead were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt, EXW. Downstream enterprises mostly turned cautious, with fewer inquiries; some temporarily focused on digesting inventories, and spot market transactions weakened. Inventory: On June 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,025 mt to 304,850 mt; as of June 15, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, an increase of 3,000 mt from June 8 and an increase of 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast today: Last week, lead prices declined, and downstream dip-buying demand warmed up. Affected by secondary lead smelters holding back from selling and their high quotes, purchasing demand shifted significantly to EXW primary lead cargoes. At present, Henan smelters are still shipping on order. Yesterday, the SHFE lead 2606 contract completed delivery, with suppliers shipping to delivery warehouses in a concentrated manner, and social inventory increased as expected. Currently, both primary and secondary lead enterprises face maintenance and raw material shortages, with supply tight and uncertain. SMM believes that after the delivery, lead ingot inventory buildup pressure will gradually ease, and upside resistance to lead prices is expected to weaken.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary: LME Inventory Running at Low Levels LME Zinc Fluctuates at Highs]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,591/mt, fluctuated upward after opening, touched a high of $3,623/mt, then pulled back all the way, dipped to $3,568/mt during the session, and finally closed up at $3,584.5/mt, up $1.5/mt, or 0.04%. Trading volume dropped to 11,715 lots...

At 4:15 PM on June 8, 2026, a ladle explosion at the SMS-1 steelmaking shop of Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP) — operated by Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL) — unleashed molten metal at over 1,500°C onto the working platform below Caster-2. According to a preliminary report by India's Chief Inspector of Factories, the cause was a sudden release of gas entrapped within the liquid steel, which ruptured the ladle seal before the sliding gate was opened, triggering a catastrophic spill.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes: US and Iran About to Sign Peace Agreement, LME Zinc Stops Falling and Rebounds]: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,526.5/mt. After opening, LME zinc briefly maintained a fluctuating trend, during which it dipped to a low of $3,511.5/mt, then started a fluctuating upward trend, touching a high of $3,590.5/mt near the close, finally closing up at $3,583/mt, up $57.5/mt, an increase of 1.63%...

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt, swung wildly during Asian trading and hit a low of $1,947.5/mt; entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,968.5/mt in late trading, and finally settled at $1,967/mt, up 0.49%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,055 yuan/mt, dipped briefly to a low of 16,035 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, hitting a high of 16,125 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 16,100 yuan/mt, up 0.28%. On the macro front: According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, US President Trump's approval rating among voters in rural America dropped to 50%, the lowest of his presidency. Middle East tensions--Trump: Iran deal reached, free passage through the Strait and US military blockade lifted. The PBOC released its financial statistics report for May 2026: M2 was flat while M1 rose; the incremental scale of aggregate social financing in the first five months reached 17.48 trillion yuan. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to be in the doldrums, once again nearing the 16,000 mark. Suppliers were somewhat divided in their shipments, with quotations featuring both premiums and discounts. Inventories at smelters in major producing regions declined, and suppliers held prices firm when selling. Electrolytic lead from major producing regions was quoted at premiums of 0-100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, EXW. In secondary lead, smelters offered limited cargoes, with some secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, EXW. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, mainly sourcing EXW cargoes from smelters, while transactions for warehouse cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market were modest. Inventory side: On June 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 775 mt to 305,875 mt. As of June 11, total SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations reached 65,400 mt, down 1,700 mt from June 4, and up over 700 mt from June 8. Today's lead price forecast: On the consumption side, lead-acid battery enterprises maintained relatively stable production. After the decline in lead prices, downstream enterprises bought the dip as needed, and considering possible mid-year book closing and inventory checks in late June, some downstream firms made advance purchases. On the supply side, primary and secondary lead enterprises saw both increases and decreases in production, with supply expected to show little difference. In-factory inventories at both types of smelters declined, easing the pressure to sell. In particular, heavy losses at secondary lead smelters discouraged them from offering cargoes. Spot lead is expected to continue being quoted at small premiums against SMM #1 lead, and if SHFE lead falls further, the possibility of spot prices exceeding futures cannot be ruled out.