Platinum prices were in the doldrums intraday, with market concerns primarily arising from the uncertainties before the formal signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement on the 19th and the ambiguity from the Israeli side, and platinum futures gave up some of yesterday's gains. In the morning session, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 closed at 435.6 yuan/g, down 1.44%, and the inverted spread between the sell-one price of SGE platinum 9995 and GFEX PT2608 widened to 3-6 yuan/g. Spot side, mainstream platinum quotations were at a discount of 3 yuan/g to parity against the PT2608 contract, with the discount basically flat from the previous trading day, but transactions clearly favored the low end of quotations. According to SMM, with the recent rebound in platinum prices, the offer spread in the platinum spot market was wide, making it very difficult to transact at the high end of mainstream quotations. Downstream enterprises had ample stockpiles and subdued procurement sentiment, with overall transactions being lackluster.

From June 3 to June 5, Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 120+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Conference Background of Tin Forum In 2022, both LME and SHFE tin annual prices closed lower, and the market at the time may not have anticipated that this would serve as the prelude to a three-year upward cycle. From 2023 to 2025, tin prices recorded three consecutive years of gains, with both LME and SHFE tin surging over 30% in 2025. Entering 2026, the upward trend has continued, with tin prices hitting a new record high and becoming one of the most closely watched metals in the industrial metals market. However, this rally has not been smooth. In the past two years, tin prices have fluctuated significantly within an upward channel, driven by deep adjustments in global supply-demand patterns, especially multiple disruptions on the supply side. On the demand side, emerging sectors such as AI servers, PV welding strips, and NEVs have rapidly risen, coupled with a recovery in consumer electronics, continuously highlighting tin's strategic value in high-end manufacturing and steadily expanding rigid demand. On the supply side, global tin resources are highly concentrated, production resumptions in Myanmar have fallen short of expectations, some ex-China mining areas have been disrupted by geopolitical factors, and Indonesia—a key link in global refined tin supply—has seen its industrial policy adjustments become a critical variable affecting market expectations. Reviewing Indonesia's tin industry policy, the past two years have shown a clear trajectory of "standardizing and regulating, tightening exports, and promoting downstream development." In 2024, the Mining Work Plan (RKAB) was adjusted from an annual to a three-year basis, and exports experienced temporary fluctuations during the policy transition. In 2025, Indonesia further strengthened governance over illegal mining, shutting down some illegal tin mines, cracking down on smuggling activities, and adjusting tin ore royalty fees, leading to higher production costs. Entering 2026, the policy direction has become clearer, with studies on restricting refined tin exports, lowering export quotas, and plans to raise tin royalty tax rates, promoting the transition from resource exports to high value-added processing. These adjustments are reshaping the rhythm and trade patterns of the global tin supply chain. As an important platform connecting the global tin industry chain with the Indonesian resource market, the Tin Forum focuses on the latest developments in Indonesia's tin policies, the evolution of the global tin supply-demand pattern, price trend analysis, and industrial cooperation opportunities. It brings together government officials, industry experts, miners, smelters, and downstream end-user representatives to jointly explore new opportunities in the global supply chain amid the transformation of Indonesia's tin industry. Click to view photo gallery of tin forum Tin Forum June 4 Visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is pleased to announce that an SMM-led delegation, headed by SMM Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager Jenny Wu and made up of delegates from the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2026 , conducted a formal visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) on June 4. The event was organized by SMM and co-organized by Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Economic Council, Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI), and MMR, with the Jakarta Futures Exchange as the strategic partner. This visit underscores SMM’s commitment to fostering long-term, win-win partnerships between Indonesia’s top mineral exporters and global metals industry stakeholders. Supply and Demand Exchange Session June 5 Opening Remarks Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Keynote Speech Keynote Speech: DRC Tin Ore: Current Supply Status and Market Dynamics Insights Speaker: Raj Chug, General Manager, Mining Mineral Resources Keynote Speech: African Tin Ore: Resource Potential and Supply Chain Breakthrough Paths Amid Supply Shortages Speaker: Egyul Mamoko， Metallurgist Expert， CTCPM (Cellule Technique de Coordination et de Planification Minière) [Panel Discussion] Global Tin Mine Supply Seminar: Current Status, Opportunities, and Future Challenges Moderator: Vicky Qiao, Senior Analyst at SMM Panelists: Egyul Mamoko, Metallurgist Expert, CTCPM (Cellule Technique de Coordination et de Planification Minière) Erwin Setyawan, Head of Trading & Operation, Jakarta Futures Exchange Joseph G. Miller Esq, Strategic & Defense Metals Specialist/Director, Mission Critical Metals, Mission Critical Metals Keynote Speech: The Development Trend of the Tin Market in China Speaker: Zheyu Zhang, Tin Market Analyst, Marketing Department, Yuntin (Honghe) Investment Development Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Opportunities and Challenges for Smelters Under Indonesia's New Tin Industry Policies Speaker: Yazid Kanca Surya, Chief Executive Officer, Jakarta Futures Exchange Fragmented Global Supply Chain System Reshaping of the Geopolitical Landscape : Trade disputes and geopolitical tensions are profoundly altering traditional commodity trade patterns. Industrial Security :Countries are increasingly prioritizing long-term stable supply of strategic resources over short-term price advantages. Focus on Critical Minerals : Tin’s industry role is no longer isolated; it has become a core issue in the global energy transition and high-end manufacturing sectors. Evolution of the Tin Market The industry is entering a new phase where credibility is as important as capacity. Promoting Downstream Industrialisation (Hilirisasi) •Historical Development Background: Indonesia has long been dominated by the supply of primary processed products, with most downstream value addition achieved outside China. • Strategic Goals : Indonesia is adjusting export policies, trade management, and supply chain oversight to retain high-value-added industries within the country. Strengthening regulation and cracking down on illegal mining are not punitive measures, but rather efforts to build a transparent system to help the local area vigorously promote the development of downstream industries. Smelters Under Pressure Upstream uncertainties: Illegal mining disrupts the market, raw material supply fluctuates, and price trends are difficult to predict. Downstream market requirements: Strict compliance standards, full transparency in raw material traceability, and continuously rising screening thresholds for buyers. Market Volatility Intensifies The uncertainty in the current operating environment has increased significantly. Enterprises must not only cope with production risks, but also simultaneously address the multiple pressures arising from external shocks and rising operating costs. Investment Barriers in Deep Processing Keynote Speech: Deepening Downstream Diversification, Joining Hands to Foster Long-term Prosperity Guest Speaker: HARRY BUDI SIDHARTA, S.T, MM., Vice President Director, PT Timah (Persero) Tbk Keynote Speech: Challenges and Opportunities for China's Tin Industry amid Global Tin Ore Supply Changes Guest Speaker: Huanbo Qin, Market Analyst, International Tin Association China Keynote Speech: Analysis of Global Tin Price Trends and Future Outlook Speaker: Vicky Qiao, Senior Analyst, Shanghai Metals Market Price Trend Overview Price Review: Amid macroeconomic and geopolitical disruptions, market fundamentals have provided structural support Key Points: Tight mine-side supply has established a long-term price floor, while macro liquidity has primarily driven price fluctuations. Tin Resources and Mine Supply Landscape Supply elasticity is limited, accompanied by a high geographic concentration of reserves; the global static mine life is less than 15 years. Rising mine production alongside shrinking global resources has accelerated reserve depletion in producing countries. DRC: Output from major mines remained stable; however, M23 militant activities increased market uncertainty. ►Risks 1. The M23 armed conflict has spread to the Masisi region east of the Bisie mine and the Goma border crossing between the DRC and Rwanda, directly disrupting the original tin ore transportation route via Goma to Dar es Salaam. 2. To mitigate conflict risks, security at the Bisie mine has been reinforced, and freight routes have been adjusted northward to reroute through Uganda, ultimately destined for the port of Mombasa in Kenya. Nevertheless, market concerns persist that further spread of the M23 conflict could disrupt normal production operations at the mine. 3. The DRC recently experienced an Ebola outbreak, with confirmed cases concentrated in Beni and Bunia, areas adjacent to Uganda. Strict disease prevention measures have been implemented at both the mine and along transportation links; Bisie's mining and freight activities have yet to be affected by the pandemic impact. However, the market remains apprehensive about the local mineral supply outlook. Myanmar's Man Maw Tin Mine: Production Resumptions Hindered • 90% of Myanmar's tin ore production is concentrated in Wa State. To ensure rational resource extraction and stable regional development, Wa State suspended all tin ore mining starting in 2023, with new mining permits only reissued in July 2025. Due to the local rainy climate, the mine pits accumulated significant water during the suspension, making drainage the primary challenge upon work resumption. As the water accumulation issue affected multiple pits, the cost-sharing arrangements for drainage among mining enterprises were long delayed and never finalized. The resulting obstruction of drainage work has directly constrained the mine's production resumption progress. •In February 2026, the local government issued detailed rules clarifying the cost-sharing standards for drainage, and the Wa State tin mine immediately began resuming production. •Currently, strict approval and control of civilian explosives in Myanmar, compounded by disruptions to mining and logistics caused by the rainy season, have led to progress in local production resumptions falling short of expectations. Full resumption is expected only by 2027. The number of new tin mine projects globally is scarce, with generally low ore grades and lengthy development-to-production cycles. New projects generally have low ore grades, posing upside risks to future mining costs and increasing operational difficulty. Only three new projects have grades above 1%. Lower ore grades mean that more raw ore must be processed to produce the same amount of tin metal. The future supply landscape will be markedly differentiated, with total planned and under-construction projects reaching 173.5 kt in capacity, and just four major projects accounting for over 67%. Global supply will be highly dependent on these core mine projects, while five new projects in Australia can only bring a small incremental increase with limited impact. Global Tin Ingot Supply The high concentration of primary tin smelting capacity limits the global supply elasticity of tin ingots. Keynote Speech: Achieving the Trading and Risk Hedging of Pure Tin Ingots Through the Standardized Trading Mechanism of the Futures Market – Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Authority Guest Speaker: Ima Siti Fatimah, Head of the Commodity Futures Trading Development Bureau, Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia Keynote Speech: Under the Drive of Geopolitical Policies: Global Strategic Metal Tin Trade Restructuring, Breakthroughs in North American Secondary Production, and New Logic in Solder Consumption Guest Speaker: Joseph G. Miller Esq, Strategic & Defense Metals Specialist/Director, Mission Critical Metals, Mission Critical Metals ► Securing Supply: US Plan to Reshore Critical Metal (Tin) Capacity • Lessons drawn from COVID-19 and World War II. • No primary tin capacity currently exists in North America: no tin ore mining operations, no tin ore smelting capacity. • The US secondary tin market is regionally fragmented. • The US government supports the Nathan Trotter primary/secondary tin smelter. • The Trump administration has made multiple investments in the critical metals sector. • Security situation in the DRC and surrounding regions. ► Data Center Tin Consumption Estimates How much tin is consumed per gigawatt of installed data center capacity? • Servers, GPUs, network systems: 500–1,500 mt. • Power systems, switchgear: 100–400 mt. • Control devices, communication equipment, cooling systems: 50–200 mt. • Tin usage per gigawatt of installed AI data center capacity is approximately 1,200–1,500 mt. Additionally, the speaker noted: the PV industry's annual tin consumption is about 25,000 mt, with average annual new installations of around 30 GW, corresponding to tin demand of 36,000–45,000 mt. Keynote Speech: Due Diligence in the Indonesian Tin Sector: A Tradition of Early Adoption and Pathways for ESG Leadership Guest Speaker: Josue Ruiz, Director of Facility Engagement, Responsible Minerals Initiative Keynote Speech: Malaysian Tin Mine: Market Breakthrough and Global Expansion from the Perspective of Critical Minerals Guest Speaker: DATO DEREK TENG, Director of the SETARA JELITA SDN BHD, President of the MALAYSIA MARITIME SILK ROUTE RESEARCH SOCIETY Critical Minerals in the New Era Strategic Positioning and Core Applications of Tin National Strategic Cornerstone: Listed in the “Critical Minerals List” by many countries, it holds an irreplaceable core position in securing national resource security and maintaining the resilience of global supply chains. Modern Industrial Lifeline: The core raw material for electronic solder manufacturing, it supports semiconductor packaging, PCB circuit boards, and other electronic information industries, serving as the “industrial monosodium glutamate” of modern manufacturing. Frontier Technology Engine: Empowering emerging technologies such as 5G communications, NEV batteries, PV modules, and AI chips, it drives the dual transformation of the digital economy and green transition. Tin: The “Industrial MSG” Driving High-Tech Industries ► A Core Member of the Global Critical Minerals System U.S. Official Designation: According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “2025 Critical Minerals List,” tin is formally listed as a critical mineral, regarded as a strategic resource vital to national economic development and national security. Global Industry Consensus: In the mineral assessment systems of the EU and other developed economies, tin also occupies a core position. It is an indispensable “emerging cornerstone mineral” supporting the global digital economic transformation and the upgrade of the new energy industry. The global tin application structure in 2025 is very clear: 53% is used in semiconductors and high-end electronic solder, 16% in fine tin chemical new materials, 11% in food-grade tinplate and tin cans, and 8% directly in the PV green new energy industry. Tin Applications in High-Growth Sectors Currently, three major high-growth tracks worldwide are continuously driving rigid incremental demand for tin. First, AI computing power and hyperscale data centers: The tin consumption per unit of high-end AI servers is 3–13 times that of ordinary servers. With the explosive growth of global AI computing power demand, the demand for high-end solder will continue to grow rapidly. Second, new energy vehicles: Tin consumption per vehicle is about three times that of internal combustion engine vehicles, and for intelligent car models, it can reach up to 1.5 kg per vehicle. Third, advanced packaging: The solder ball usage of advanced packaging technologies such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is more than five times that of traditional DRAM. Malaysia at a Crossroads The Decline of a Former Empire and Opportunities for Transformation ► Glorious History · Tin Empire: In the 1960s, Malaysia was the world's veritable "Tin Empire." Its tin production once accounted for one-third of the global total, and revenue from tin exports represented as much as 60% of the country's total export revenue, dominating the global tin trade landscape. ► Current Situation · Dual Challenges: However, after industrial iteration, its share of global production was only 0.2% in 2023, with annual output falling to 6,100 mt, marking a sharp decline. Malaysia still holds considerable secondary resource reserves of 780,000 tonnes, with native ore depleted but tailings holding significant potential. ► Future · Reshaping Value Strategic Empowerment: Leverage the new strategic identity of “critical minerals” to enhance discourse power and bargaining power in the international supply chain. Industrial Leap: Shift away from dependence on primary tin ingot exports and move towards high value-added deep processing manufacturing and the establishment of a circular economy system. Core Challenges Faced Currently, Malaysia’s tin industry faces four core structural challenges. Market Breakthrough: Reshaping Value Embrace the New Identity and Extend into Downstream High Value-Added Sectors Build a Regional Circular Economy Center Core Strategy: Fully leverage Malaysia’s industrial advantage as a global electronics manufacturing center, turning the large amount of tin-containing scrap generated during production—including solder dross, waste circuit boards, etc.—into valuable recycled tin resources, and establish an “urban mining” resource recycling system. Keynote Speech: From Waste to Value: How Smelters and Recycling Enterprises Uncover Hidden Treasures in Tin Ore By-Products Guest Speaker: Justin Wang, Director of Marketing and Technology, Stannum Solutions(Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

SMM June 16 News: Metal market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market generally rose, with SHFE copper down 0.47% and SHFE aluminum down 1.69%. SHFE lead gained 0.96%. SHFE zinc rose 0.45%. SHFE tin climbed 1.17%. SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 0.48%, and lithium carbonate main contract slid 2.4%. The most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, while the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell, with iron ore down 0.2%, rebar down 0.38%, and HRC down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, and the most-traded coke contract edged up 0.1%. In overseas base metals markets, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum dropped 0.71%, and LME lead rose 0.18%. LME zinc gained 0.14%, LME tin fell 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold dipped 0.21% and COMEX silver slid 0.68%. In the domestic precious metals market: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.63%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.65%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe route) futures contract rose 1.42% to 3,834 points. As of 11:39 on June 16, some futures midday quotes: Spot Market and Fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, the spread in quoted prices remained wide today. The overall consumer market showed sluggishness in mid-to-late June, with the continuously rising silver prices suppressing some demand... Macro Front China: [NBS: In May, Industrial Added Value Above Designated Size Grew by 4.5%, National Economy Maintained Overall Stability with New and Improved Growth Drivers] In May, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments conscientiously implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implemented the new development philosophy, accelerated the establishment of a new development pattern, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively responded to external shocks and challenges. Production supply remained stable with slight increases, employment and prices were generally stable, foreign trade resilience continued to show, new growth drivers grew and expanded, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability with new and improved growth drivers. NBS data showed: In May, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous month. On a MoM basis, May's industrial added value of enterprises above designated size grew by 0.40% compared with April. From January to May, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation: China Commodity Development Report Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the "China Commodity Development Report (2026)" today (16th). According to the report, China remains one of the world's most important commodity import markets, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans, and other commodities staying high. Facing challenges, commodity market resilience has strengthened. According to the report, from 2025 to 2026, China's commodity market generally presents a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensified external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience allocation. In 2025, China's goods trade scale maintained strong resilience, with major commodity imports remaining high. The import volumes of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans, and other commodities continued to demonstrate the Chinese market's global absorption capacity. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Injects Net 296.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 449.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 153 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 296.5 billion yuan. US Dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index edged up 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June was 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 91.3%, with a 7.4% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US-Iran deal was announced, oil prices fell back and the US Treasury market subsequently strengthened, reducing the pressure on the Fed to hike rates this year. Falconio stated: "Even before the ceasefire agreement, Treasury yields were still rising because the market was pricing in an almost 100% probability of a rate hike in December." "Now the situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. Therefore, 2-year Treasury yields are beginning to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Warsh will preside over his first rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of previously surging crude oil prices reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting a rate hike this year have grown. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, tilting the policy outlook more hawkish. However, she still believes the next Fed move will be a rate cut, occurring in 2027. US asset manager PGIM holds an out-of-consensus view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to cool an overheating economy, then reverse the hikes in 2027. The company had previously forecast Fed rate cuts this year as recently as April. PGIM stated the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new response strategy. Given this backdrop, and considering the Fed has missed its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM stated, "Warsh will have political cover if the rate hikes are framed as a 'precaution' to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury volatility." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will relatively quickly reverse these hikes, implementing three rate cuts in 2027, and another in 2028, reaching a terminal rate of 3.375%—lower than the current rate, possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) Other Currencies: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its target rate by 25 bps from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three consecutive meetings. The BoJ raised rates to the highest level in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-anticipated move signaling its commitment to addressing inflationary risks from the Middle East conflict. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-to-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This is the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BoJ's policy rate to levels not seen since 1995. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who is hospitalized for treatment, was absent from the meeting and did not participate in the vote. The afternoon press conference will be hosted by BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, whose remarks will be closely watched for clues on how the BoJ will continue to assess the negative economic fallout from the Iran war. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today's releases include the US ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US annualized housing starts for May, US building permits total for May, US import price index MoM for May, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the Eurozone's June ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, and Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, among others. Additionally, watch for: a State Council Information Office press conference on the national economic situation; the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology's seminar launching the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan; the RBA's interest rate decision and RBA Governor Bullock's monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: As of 11:39, both benchmark oil prices fell, with WTI oil down 0.09% and Brent oil down 0.26%. As the Trump administration nears completion of its plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to alleviate fuel price spikes triggered by the Iran war, US emergency crude stockpiles have dropped to their lowest level since 1983. According to data released Monday by the DOE, the SPR—established after the 1970s Arab oil embargo—has fallen to approximately 340 million barrels, near a historic low. If the plan is completed, it would mark the second-largest release in the reserve's history, leaving roughly 243 million barrels, or about one-third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces US flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. An Energy Department spokesperson stated that the government is managing the reserve according to its intended purpose: helping stabilize oil markets, protecting the US from supply disruptions, and enhancing US energy security. (Jin10 Data APP) Morgan Stanley sharply cut its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as the tentative US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil output and increase supply. In a June 15 report, analysts including Martijn Rats said they now forecast Brent crude to average $90/bbl in Q3, down from a prior estimate of $100/bbl, and $80/bbl for the final three months of the year, a $15 reduction from their earlier forecast. They also noted the expected timeline for restoring Middle East production has been pulled forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues remain to be negotiated and key risks persist, but this is a significant step toward de-escalating the conflict and increasing oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz," they said. "We expect a gradual production ramp-up starting from mid-July, with 50% of output restored by September, 80% by December, and the rest coming back online gradually in early 2027." (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► Midday commentaries for other metals' spot markets will be updated later, please refresh to check~

SMM Nickel June 16 Update: Macro and market news: (1) The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy interest rate from 0.75% to 1.0%, bringing it to the highest level in 31 years. The long-anticipated move signals its commitment to addressing inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. (2) Iranian media: The US has begun lifting its maritime blockade, with multiple Iranian vessels passing through US-blockaded waters without incident. Spot market: On June 16, SMM #1 refined nickel spot prices fell by 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,500 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2607) moved sideways in early trading. As of the morning session close, it was reported at 135,700 yuan/mt, up 0.27%. The finalized US-Iran deal has significantly eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the tail risk to energy supply receding. The pullback in crude oil has cooled global inflation expectations. If the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eases the ex-China sulfur supply crisis, cost support for nickel prices will weaken. Meanwhile, nickel prices remain constrained by high inventories. In the near term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the range of 133,000-140,000 yuan/mt.

Today in North China, spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract were reported at discounts of 190–130 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 160 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price stood at 104,580 yuan/mt, down 1,025 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

On June 16, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,500 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the prior day, while the range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands was -400-400 yuan/mt.