SMM News on August 17: Weaker-than-expected US economic data led the market to lower expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, with the US dollar index pulling back to around 99.5. Coupled with medium and long-term support from geopolitical safe-haven demand and central bank gold purchases, rising international gold and silver prices lifted China’s futures market, in turn boosting sentiment in the precious metals sector of A-shares. As of around 15:10 on August 17, COMEX gold rose 0.48% to $4,458.7/oz; the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.05% to 955.72 yuan/g; COMEX silver climbed 1.47% to $66.065/oz; the most-traded SHFE silver contract increased 2.48% to 16,143 yuan/kg; and silver T+D rose 2.89% to 16,065 yuan/kg. In addition, the most-traded platinum futures contract surged 3.37% to 436 yuan/g, while the most-traded palladium contract advanced 2.03% to 318.95 yuan/g. Equities: As of the close on the 17th, the precious metals sector rose 3.33%. Among individual stocks, Hunan Silver jumped 6.63%, while Shandong Humon Smelting, Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, Xingye Silver&Tin, and Shengda Resources posted leading gains. Spot Market Silver On August 17, the morning ex-works reference average spot price for SMM 1# silver was 16,021 yuan/kg, up 3.21% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, higher silver prices suppressed downstream purchasing demand, and the market saw strong wait-and-see sentiment today. Against the backdrop of a widening spot-futures price spread, suppliers became more cautious in quoting, with transactions mainly driven by rigid demand from some acceptance needs, overall leaning toward parity. In Shanghai, early-session quotations were mainly at TD -5 to +10 yuan/kg, with insufficient purchasing momentum and transactions skewed toward the lower end. In Shenzhen, some national-standard cargoes clustered around a slight discount to parity. Today’s premiums quotations against the SHFE the most-traded contract 2610 were a discount of 70-50 yuan/kg. Overall, silver prices rebounded slightly today, but with the news flow lacking further upward momentum, prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. In the spot market, higher silver prices continued to curb follow-up demand, and downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines at the start of the week. Platinum On August 17, the average spot price of platinum was 431 yuan/g, up 2.62% from the previous trading day. Mainstream quotations for platinum were a discount of 3-2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract. Driven by today’s rise in futures, suppliers slightly widened their discount quotations versus the previous trading day, but downstream consumption remained weak, and purchase willingness was limited after the futures rally, with procurement mainly consisting of small lots for rigid demand. Suppliers faced obstacles in selling high-priced cargoes, and the bargaining room in actual deals widened somewhat. Warehouse warrant premiums were relatively high, and mainstream quotations mostly hovered around a discount of about 1.5 yuan/g to the most-traded contract. Overall, platinum spot market trading remained sluggish today. Views From Various Parties On the outlook for precious metals, some institutions were relatively optimistic while others were more cautious. The views of several institutions are as follows: Everbright Futures believed that multiple US inflation readings cooled and consumption weakened, prompting the market to lower its expectations for a September rate hike. Gold prices last week generally shot up but then met resistance and pulled back. In the short term, upside resistance for gold was evident; however, stagflation, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases provided support, leaving limited room for a sharp pullback. On the US Fed, divisions within the US Fed remained apparent: Richmond Fed President Barkin supported keeping rates unchanged, while Cleveland Fed President Hammack reiterated a rate-hike stance. The market was also watching for comments from Wosh; his speech at the global central bank annual meeting at month-end in August was expected to be exceptionally important and could provide some guidance for the September policy meeting. On the geopolitical front, the contest and negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz were still ongoing. After the US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly weakened, CPI and PPI both came in mild, further confirming a marginal easing of inflation pressures. The market’s extreme pricing for a September rate hike pulled back markedly from earlier highs, which also drove a notable rebound in gold prices. However, as the data were released and the probability of a rate hike declined, the market again became “confused” about the outlook, and profit-taking pushed gold prices somewhat lower. In addition, reports said the Japanese government supported the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike, and the next window for a hike was likely to fall in September or October, triggering a brief bout of liquidity-panic sentiment in the market. In the short term, gold faced substantial resistance in the upper range and needed time to digest it, along with further catalysts from news flow. Nevertheless, it could be expected that deepening US stagflation, persistent geopolitical risks, and continued increases in holdings by China’s central bank would all provide structural support for gold, keeping the probability of a sharp pullback relatively low. (Zhitong Finance) CICC Wealth Futures: The US-Iran issue remained in stalemate. Iran stated that the US must not enter the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, or the Strait of Hormuz in the future; however, Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz was about to become US territory, and the impact of geopolitical factors had yet to be eliminated. In addition, attention should be paid to the US dollar: the US dollar remained weak recently, with the fundamental reason being that US missteps on the military, geopolitical, and financial fronts reduced the US dollar’s safe-haven value. Coupled with midterm election pressure, expectations of passive fiscal tightening, and the trend of “UK gilts-ization of US Treasuries,” the US dollar could weaken further in the medium term, and the year’s high may have already been seen. Overall, gold still had supportive factors in the macro backdrop, and gold prices were expected to retain short-term upward momentum after the pullback. CITIC Securities stated that base metals this week saw some profit-taking at their respective key resistance levels, and base-metals equities also experienced profit-taking. However, given that commodity prices still had significant drivers for further gains, it recommended being more patient with base metals. Gold prices were temporarily under pressure at the $4,500 threshold, but both employment and inflation data reduced the likelihood of rate hikes ahead of the midterm elections, and gold prices remained in a favorable window. A rare high premium emerged on the spot copper side, highlighting an extremely tight inventory situation; copper prices were on the verge of breaking to a new all-time high, and equities—priced at only a little over 10x PE based on a 100,000-yuan copper price—provided a sufficient margin of safety, making the allocation value proposition stand out. (Zhitong Finance) In the latest report released last Thursday, UBS strategists said that falling real interest rates would drive investors back into the gold market, while a weaker US dollar and strong central-bank demand for gold purchases would jointly push gold prices toward the $5,000/oz threshold in H1 next year. (Zhitong Finance) Citadel Securities strategist Scott Rubner, for the first time since 2026, recommended that investors allocate to structured gold positions, saying the current precious-metals market was forming “one of the most attractive upside opportunities in months” . Rubner believed that gold and silver were simultaneously benefiting from multiple tailwinds, including a shift in US Fed policy expectations, continued central-bank gold buying, quant funds still positioned as bears, the options market releasing bullish signals, and retail funds previously drawn by the AI trading wave potentially flowing back in. In his view, multiple factors were creating a rare resonance, and the precious-metals market could enter a new uptrend phase. StoneX senior analyst Matt Simpson said that improving Middle East peace prospects lowered market inflation expectations, pushing gold prices further higher from a consolidation range that had lasted for weeks and sat above $4,000. The US Department of Labor was set to release the non-farm payrolls report tonight. Simpson added: “Regardless of the non-farm payrolls data, $4,000 has proven to be a solid support level—I suspect bulls are waiting for a pullback to seize the opportunity and drive gold prices in a rebound to $4,600. The non-farm payrolls data may bring some fluctuations in the short term, but price action has already shown the direction; gold seems to want to rise.” World Gold Council: In July, positive momentum factors offset negative risk factors, leaving gold prices flat in July. Looking ahead, a second wave of high inflation similar to that in the late 1970s cannot be ruled out. But that in itself does not mean gold will surge, as it will depend on real interest rates, the US dollar, growth expectations, demand from Asian investors, and how central banks respond. Kelvin Wong, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, said: “The link between gold and oil prices still exists, because oil prices have a huge impact on inflationary pressures in the global economy. If we can see a clear roadmap for further de-escalation of the (Middle East) situation, gold prices may continue to rise.” (Jinshi Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report said that since the beginning of this year, gold prices shot up and then fell rapidly, but we believe gold is still in a major bull market, driven by the accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, hard-to-bridge geopolitical rifts amid de-globalization, and continued support from ongoing gold purchases by global central banks. Therefore, we believe this round of decline in gold prices is only a temporary adjustment within a bull market. The current pullback has approached historical extremes, and around $4,000/oz is highly likely to be the bottom area for this cycle. Looking ahead, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on gold prices is expected to shift from suppression to support, US Fed monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and together with a surge in US military spending pushing up the deficit, gold prices are expected to return to an upward channel within the year. Everbright Futures, looking ahead to August, said the short-term trend in gold prices depends on how the US-Iran situation evolves. If the conflict continues or spillovers expand, market sentiment may turn weaker again, and under expectations of liquidity risks, gold prices may continue to underperform; but if there is a substantive breakthrough in negotiations, gold prices may stabilize in the short term and see a rebound-driven repair. At that time, if financial markets both inside and outside China recover in tandem, it can be further confirmed. However, it can be expected that with support from rigid central bank buying and allocation demand, even if another pullback occurs, the downside room will be relatively limited. In addition, the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium at the end of August may see Walsh outline a medium-term policy framework; before that, the US CPI data on the 12th will be a key validation indicator. Overall, gold may show a solid bottom and be in a sentiment-repair phase, warranting a cautiously optimistic view. The core risks are that the US-Iran conflict again drives oil prices to climb above $90/oz, US inflation data rebounds far above expectations, and the probability of a September rate hike continues to rise, which may continue to suppress market sentiment; however, judging from the performance of financial markets outside China and oil prices, neither strongly supports a full-scale escalation of the US-Iran conflict. A Reuters poll showed that after gold prices pulled back sharply from record highs in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, but most still expect central bank buying and concerns about fiscal sustainability to provide support. In a survey of 29 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks, the median forecast for 2026 gold prices was $4,509 per ounce. This was below $4,916 three months earlier and marked the first downward revision in 11 quarters. The average forecast price for 2027 was $4,610, versus $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January, but in Q2 they saw a sharp pull back as the Iran war intensified energy inflation and pushed up expectations for rate hikes, posting the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen by about 22%. (Jinshi Data APP) ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noted that gold prices rose on Monday because a sharp drop in oil prices eased inflation concerns and weighed on the US dollar and US Treasury yield. The steep fall in oil prices on Monday alleviated inflation worries and the outlook for further monetary tightening. The move followed a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also pressured the US dollar and US Treasury yield, improving the outlook for non-interest-bearing assets ahead of this week’s US Fed meeting. The market is now focused on the US Fed and the upcoming release of US inflation data for further guidance on the interest-rate outlook. If yield remains subdued, gold prices should continue to find support around current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the US Fed could limit further upside room in the near term. Commerzbank: Cut its year-end gold price forecast to $4,500 per troy ounce. Platinum prices are expected to reach $2,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year, versus a previous forecast of $2,100. Citi said its base case showed that, despite Q3 historically being a seasonal peak for stockpiling, India’s gold imports would remain subdued in Q3. This was due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and a discount in local prices, which curbed demand for fresh imports. However, Citi still set its 0–3 month short-term gold target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumed easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the US Fed; in the near term, many risks could still drive gold prices to retest lower levels, including major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish stance from the US Fed. Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical gold demand for the metal and buying by central banks were supporting the gold market. The analysts added that while gold prices faced near-term headwinds from expectations of US Fed tightening and a firm US dollar, after months of exchange-traded fund outflows, gold investment positioning looked very thin, suggesting that room for further declines could be limited. A high-interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets such as gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs said that, despite pressure from expectations of a more hawkish US Fed, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong; the bank estimated that central banks purchased 81 mt of gold in May, with the three-month average monthly purchases at 67 mt—well above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt. Goldman analysts said, “We believe the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings will continue for many years, as they hedge geopolitical and financial risks through reserve diversification.” The bank forecast that average monthly purchases in this year and next will be 50 mt and 40 mt, respectively. (Jinshi Data APP) Soojin Kim, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, “Recent price action suggests the market is placing greater emphasis on the possibility that US interest rates will stay high for longer, rather than gold’s traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment.” (Jinshi Data APP) Asset manager Fidelity International said it plans to rebuild its gold position, which it reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold’s long-term drivers remain strong. Ian Samson, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said recently, “We plan to increase our gold holdings again; it’s just a question of timing.” He said he cut his gold allocation to neutral from January to February this year, when a multi-year bull market in gold abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market at some point in 2027. The rationale for a return to a bull market would only be undermined if “governments return to fiscal discipline and central banks are truly committed to pushing inflation back down,” “but I don’t think we’re in that world right now.” Samson also said that continued gold purchases by central banks (a key driver of the previous gold bull market) will continue to support gold prices. Recommended Reading:

SMM News, Aug 17: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market rose across the board. SHFE copper rose 1.76%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.58%. SHFE lead rose 0.41%. SHFE zinc rose 0.99%. SHFE tin rose 0.85%. SHFE nickel rose 1%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.69%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.33%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.18%. The most-traded silicon metal contract was flat at 8,665 yuan/mt. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.94%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.77%, rebar fell 0.1%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.46%. Stainless steel rose 0.42%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.66%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.58%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:42, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 1.36%, LME aluminum rose 0.68%, and LME lead rose 0.42%. LME zinc rose 0.58%. LME tin rose 0.43%. LME nickel rose 0.62%. Precious metals: As of 11:42, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 1.02%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.89%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.92%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.64%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.05%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe shipping container freight contract rose 8.59% to 1,725.5 points. As of 11:42 on Aug 17, midday moves in select futures: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Cooling rate-hike expectations provided support, but liquidity-risk disruptions limited gains, with silver prices consolidating at highs. Wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market was strong, and transactions tended toward small declines… Macro Front China: PBOC: Based on the demand of primary dealers for open market operations, the volume of 7-day reverse repo operations on Aug 17, 2026 was zero. Meanwhile, 565.5 billion yuan in overnight reverse repo operations was conducted. (Jinshi Data APP) [China Made Major Progress in Key Technologies for Rare Earth Detection] It was learned today that recently, China made major progress in key technologies for rare earth detection. For a long time, accurately determining the content of rare earth impurities in high-purity rare earths has faced the challenge of matrix interference, which has severely constrained precise control over the quality of rare earth products. To break through this technical bottleneck, a dedicated technical R&D effort was carried out relying on the Key Laboratory of the State Administration for Market Regulation (Rare Earth Product Detection and Traceability) established at Jiangxi University of Science and Technology. Through the unremitting efforts of the research team, breakthroughs were achieved in detection technology, and overall technical capabilities reached a new level. The research team successfully developed multiple key technologies for rare earth detection, among which the inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometry method for directly determining the content of rare earth impurities in high-purity rare earths was particularly outstanding. This technology successfully overcame bottlenecks of traditional detection methods, such as the need to separate the matrix in advance and high detection limits. It offers significant advantages including high sensitivity, high accuracy, and rapid detection, enabling direct and precise determination of trace rare earth impurities in high-purity rare earths and providing solid and strong technical support for quality control of rare earth products. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.55. According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through September was 66.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 33.1%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through October was 53.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike was 6.6%. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said recent CPI data were encouraging, but inflation in May and June had still been relatively high; only if the momentum from June continued over the next three to four months could one be confident that prices were steadily returning to the 2% target. He supported keeping rates unchanged in July, saying inflation remained the biggest concern and that the economy and employment were “basically stable.” He warned that continued declines in retail sales would be concerning, as consumption is a key pillar of the US economy. In addition, he expressed concern about the recent pullback in productivity growth, saying that if AI-driven growth could not be sustained, the narrative around AI and monetary policy would need to be revisited. As for whether to reduce the number of policy meetings, Goolsbee said he had no strong view and was willing to wait for the working group’s recommendations. (Jin10 Data APP) Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius noted in global macro research released on August 16 that a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting “had become very unlikely,” unless the August data released in early September showed a dramatic shift—which was not his base case. This judgment was not based on a single data point, but on three main threads turning simultaneously: cooling consumption, employment trends nearing stagnation, and improving inflation. (Wallstreetcn) On the data front: Today will see the release of data including China’s July total retail sales (YoY), China’s July industrial value added above designated size (YoY), Canada’s July CPI (MoM), the US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, and the US August NAHB Housing Market Index. Key Items to Watch: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance; the National Energy Administration will release data on total society-wide electricity consumption around the 15th of each month. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.22% and Brent up 0.46%. Oil prices edged up on Monday as traders looked for the next catalyst to drive direction. A new round of Israeli strikes on Lebanon, as well as the possibility of new US sanctions on Iran, heightened geopolitical uncertainty. (Jinshi Data APP) Data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler showed that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined over the past weekend as tankers came under attack and US-Iran talks also stalled. Five bulk commodity vessels passed through the strait on Saturday, while none passed on Sunday, a sharp drop from 31 over the previous weekend. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

According to the China Hydrogen Energy Development Report (2026) released by the National Energy Administration on August 11, as of June 2026, the nationwide scale of built and under-construction renewable energy-based hydrogen production capacity had climbed to 1.4 million mt/year, of which more than 250,000 mt/year had been built and commissioned (as of year-end 2025), doubling from year-end 2024. Total hydrogen capacity nationwide exceeded 51 million mt/year, and production exceeded 39 million mt. Commissioned capacity of green ammonia was 700,000 mt/year, and green methanol 380,000 mt/year. Nationwide, about 620 hydrogen refueling stations had been built cumulatively, and the length of commissioned pure-hydrogen pipelines exceeded 350 km. The average price on the hydrogen production side was 26.2 yuan/kg, and the average price on the consumption side was 44.5 yuan/kg. Fuel cell automobile ownership was about 32,000 units. The unit cost of electrolyzers fell from 15,000 yuan/kW two years ago to 7,000 yuan/kW, a cumulative decline of more than 63%. This week, there was temporarily no offline public delivery information. Project Updates Sinopec Xinjiang Kuqa 10kt-Class Green Hydrogen Demonstration Project : Sinopec announced that all 52 alkaline electrolyzers in the project achieved 100% continuous operation at full load, reaching designed capacity. A 300 MW PV direct power supply was used for water electrolysis to produce hydrogen, with green hydrogen purity reaching 99.999% and annual green hydrogen production of 20,000 mt, which was delivered directly via pipeline to Tahe Refining & Chemical to replace the original natural gas-based hydrogen production unit, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 500,000 mt per year. All large circular alkaline electrolyzers used in the project were supplied by China enterprises, with a localisation rate of 100%. Combined with local solar irradiation conditions, the PV-side levelized electricity cost had fallen to 0.15 yuan/kWh, translating into a full green hydrogen production cost of about 18 yuan/kg. From “the world’s largest” to “stable reach full production,” it validated that 10kt-class green hydrogen facilities can operate reliably over long cycles. Shenzhen Energy Etoq Banner Wind and Solar Power Hydrogen Production Integrated Green Ammonia Synthesis Project : The hydrogen production station was fully commissioned. The project was among the first batch of hydrogen energy pilots of the National Energy Administration and a wind and solar power-based hydrogen-to-green-ammonia demonstration project in Inner Mongolia, with a total investment of 3.5 billion yuan. The project was equipped with a 505 MW wind and solar power supply (including 500MW wind power and 5MW off-grid PV), configured with 48 electrolyzers, with a designed annual output of 20,000 mt of green hydrogen. Downstream, it was paired with a 150,000 mt green ammonia synthesis unit, building a full-chain industrial model of “green electricity–green hydrogen–green ammonia.” Hebei Zhangjiakou Kangbao County Renewable Energy Hydrogen Production and Liquefaction Plant Project : It entered the final sprint toward commissioning. Phase I investment was 1 billion yuan, with a designed annual output of 12,000 mt of green hydrogen, and it will soon be formally commissioned and reach full production. The project was built by Hebei Hongmeng New Energy; at present, a single production line has completed the full hydrogen production test process, with all indicators meeting the designed standards. As the core gas source end of the Kangbao–Caofeidian long-distance green hydrogen pipeline (total length of about 1,037.82 km), once commissioned it will fill the low-carbon fuel gap in core industrial scenarios in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Huadian Yushu Hydrogen-Based Energy Integration Demonstration Project : First public announcement for EIA public participation. The project is located in the Chemical Industry Park of Wukeshu Economic and Technological Development Zone, Yushu, Changchun, and plans to build a 240,000 mt/year green methanol production line, deploy 800 MW of wind power and supporting power transmission lines, and a 32,000 mt/year green hydrogen production project, with 44 sets of 2,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzers and 22 sets of 2,000 m³ hydrogen spherical tanks, as well as a 250,000 mt/year methanol unit. Phase I will implement 300 MW of wind power and a 10,000 mt/year green hydrogen project, with a total investment of about 3.121 billion yuan, and plans to start construction in November 2025 and complete in June 2027. Gansu 100,000 mt/year Green Methanol Production Project : Approved. The project will couple water electrolysis hydrogen production with biomass gasification, and build units including gasification, purification, methanol synthesis, and rectification, supported by 48 sets of water electrolysis hydrogen production systems, with a total investment of 1.05 billion yuan. Shaanxi Dingbian County Green Hydrogen Base Project : Dingbian County, Shaanxi, and Shaanxi Hydrogen Energy Company signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement for a green hydrogen base with a total investment of 30 billion yuan. The first phase will build new energy and hydrogen production plants with 12,000 mt/year capacity of green hydrogen, and also plans an entire industry chain layout including hydrogen refueling stations, green ammonia, natural gas hydrogen blending, and hydrogen pipeline transmission. China’s First High-Pressure, Long-Distance Green Hydrogen Pipeline (Damaoqi–Baotou) : The main part of the project is basically completed, entering the final sprint toward commissioning. The pipeline has a total length of 195 km, connecting the Baiyun’ebo wind and solar power hydrogen production base with Baotou’s industrial core area. The project overcame the challenge of hydrogen embrittlement in high-pressure hydrogen transmission; relying on rare-earth-modified L360MH steel-grade dedicated pipes, it established a safety evaluation system centered on the hydrogen embrittlement sensitivity index, fracture toughness, and fatigue crack growth rate, breaking through the technical bottleneck of long-distance pure hydrogen transmission. Construction in mountainous areas is currently in the final stage, and pigging and pressure testing are being carried out on the plain section. DianTou Green Energy Yancheng Jidian Green Hydrogen Production, Storage, Transportation, and Utilization Integrated (Phase I) Demonstration Project : Tendering for water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment has been launched. The project is located in Dafeng District, Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, and adopts alkaline water electrolysis technology. The total planned hydrogen production scale is 8,000 Nm³/h. This tender will procure 4 sets of alkaline electrolyzers with a rated hydrogen production capacity of 1,000 Nm³/h, 2 sets of 2,000 Nm³/h gas-liquid separation skids, 4 sets of IGBT rectifier power supply skids, and 2 sets of dual-split rectifier transformers with a capacity of no less than 11.5 MVA. Qianjiang Qingbei Hydrogen Energy Project : Construction has entered the final stage, and equipment commissioning is being rolled out in full. The installation of hydrogen production equipment has been fully completed, with an annual output of 23 million Nm³ of high-purity green hydrogen. After Phase II is completed, the total capacity will reach 20,000 Nm³/h, making it the largest green electricity-based hydrogen production base in Central China. Zhejiang Jinjuhua Chemical Co., Ltd. : A 5,000 Nm³/h comprehensive utilization project for hydrogen resources has been filed. The project will be implemented in the High-tech Area of Zhizao New City, Quzhou City, and is a “zero land” technical renovation project for industrial enterprises in Zhejiang Province, with a total investment of 16.62 million yuan. Relying on the existing hydrogen transmission pipeline and current site, the project will install 5,000 Nm³/h hydrogen pressurization equipment to recover vented hydrogen from the electrolysis plant for supply to the methanol unit, and will be equipped with a high-speed magnetic-levitation turbo generator set to tap into power generation from the pressure differential of carbon dioxide. Baotou Haoyu New Energy Co., Ltd. : The Airport Road integrated oil-gas-electric-hydrogen energy supply station project has completed an extension filing. The project is located in Donghe District, Baotou City, with a total investment of 40 million yuan and a total site area of approximately 3,000 m², to be implemented in two phases. One integrated oil-gas-electric-hydrogen energy supply station will be newly built, equipped with CNG refueling, gasoline fueling, eight fast charging piles, and hydrogen refueling facilities. Saudi NEOM Green Hydrogen and Green Ammonia Project : All engineering construction has been completed and the project has entered the commissioning stage, with plans to achieve commercial operation in 2027. The project has a total investment of $8.4 billion (approximately 57 billion yuan) and is equally held by ACWAPower, AirProducts, and NEOM. It is supported by a 4 GW wind and solar power complementary renewable energy power station and 2.2 GW of electrolyzer capacity. After commissioning, it will produce 600 mt of zero-carbon green hydrogen per day, all of which will be converted into green ammonia for export, with annual conversion of up to 1.2 million mt of green ammonia. The hydrogen production segment adopts Thyssenkrupp Nucera alkaline water electrolysis technology, and Thyssenkrupp has delivered more than 1 GW of electrolyzer capacity. Netherlands PosHYdon Offshore Wind-to-Hydrogen Demonstration Project : It has been successfully commissioned on the in-service PL-Q13a-A offshore natural gas jacket platform and has produced green hydrogen. The platform is approximately 13 km from the Scheveningen coast and is the first fully electrified production platform in the Dutch North Sea. Led by TNO and jointly implemented by 15 organizations including DEME, Eni, Gasunie, and NelHydrogen, the project focuses on testing electrolyzer operating efficiency under conditions of fluctuating wind power output, and plans to release core test results to the public in autumn 2026. Sasol and Envision Energy : Sasol has commissioned Envision Energy to conduct a design study for the green hydrogen system at its Sasolburg operating base in South Africa. The collaboration was showcased during the South Africa–China Energy Investment Conference, and the design study will assess integrated solutions for renewable power generation, energy storage, and electrolyzer technologies. Green hydrogen produced in Sasolburg may be used in the future to produce eMethanol and potential sustainable aviation fuel (eSAF). The design phase is expected to be completed by year-end. Policy Review 1. Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration on Issuing the “15th Five-Year” Plan for Coal Industry Development (issued on August 10, Fa Gai Neng Yuan [2026] No. 979). For the first time, the plan includes hydrogen-powered mining trucks in its core deployment, proposing to “orderly carry out large-scale replacement of fuel-powered heavy-duty trucks with electric heavy-duty trucks and hydrogen-powered mining trucks” in open-pit mine transportation, and to “reasonably plan and build charging and battery swapping stations and hydrogen refueling stations in eligible mining areas.” It also encourages coal-to-oil and gas and coal chemical projects to carry out large-scale substitution with green hydrogen, promoting the implementation and application of hydrogen energy in production and transportation in the coal industry and in industrial integration scenarios. 2. The National Energy Administration released the China Hydrogen Energy Development Report (2026) (August 11). The report showed that in 2025, China’s full hydrogen value chain of “production, storage, transportation, and use” achieved rapid growth; capacity of renewable energy-based hydrogen production that was completed and put into operation exceeded 250,000 mt/year, up more than 1x YoY. Large-scale pilot projects for hydrogen-ammonia-methanol were carried out in the Three-North region, with diversified application scenarios for wind and solar power–hydrogen coupling implemented in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Hebei, and other areas. The report assessed that China’s hydrogen energy industry is moving from “pilot demonstration” to “large-scale application,” and during the “15th Five-Year” period will gradually shift from a “policy-driven” to a new “market-driven” stage. It proposed formulating an implementation plan for hydrogen energy industry development to clarify development approaches and key tasks. 3. Notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Emergency Management on Issuing the “15th Five-Year” Plan for the Development of the Safety and Emergency Equipment Industry (August 13). The plan includes hydrogen safety storage, transportation, and measurement-and-control technologies—together with lithium battery thermal runaway prevention and control and energy storage safety monitoring—into the safety production technology directions for key industry sectors. It clearly lists hydrogen safety-related technologies as key research priorities in the safety and emergency equipment field during the “15th Five-Year” period, providing national-level policy guidance for building a safety system for the hydrogen energy industry. 4. The Zhengzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology released a public notice on proposed recipients of reward funds for the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles (August 10). Pursuant to Zheng Gong Xin [2026] No. 61, following enterprise self-application, expert review, third-party audit, and other procedures, 43 enterprises including Zhengzhou Yutong Group Co., Ltd. and their corresponding projects were preliminarily identified as proposed recipients of reward funds for the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles. The public notice period runs from August 10 to August 16, 2026. 5. Fujian Province Issued the “15th Five-Year Plan” for the Development of Emerging and Future Industries. The document proposed that, in the medium term, it is expected to promote scaled preparation of clean energy such as green hydrogen, accelerate the development of production and refueling systems for hydrogen-based green fuels, and expand diversified hydrogen energy application scenarios; in the long term, it is expected to develop distinctive technology pathways such as “ammonia–hydrogen” and build a green hydrogen-based fuel production site along the southeastern coast. 6. The People’s Government of Liaoning Province issued a notice to promote the standardized, scaled, and market-oriented development of new-type energy storage from three aspects—planning guidance, market mechanisms, and institutional management—carry out pilot demonstrations for molten salt ESS, hydrogen energy storage, and others, emphasize the value of long duration energy storage (LDES), and clarify the diversified development of technology pathways. 7. The Guangzhou Municipal National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released a public notice soliciting opinions on the “Guangzhou Energy Development ‘15th Five-Year Plan’.” It proposed advancing the substitution of petroleum consumption in the transportation sector with electricity, green hydrogen-based energy, sustainable aviation fuel, and others, and accelerating the promotion of new energy vehicles such as EVs and hydrogen fuel vehicles. The target is to put into operation 50,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, 30 hydrogen fuel cell vessels, and 2,000 long-range hydrogen-powered drones by 2030. 8. The General Office of the People’s Government of Sichuan Province issued the “Work Plan of Sichuan Province to Intensify Efforts to Promote the Scaled Development and Application of New Energy Trucks.” The plan proposed expanding the application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, continuously promoting the quality improvement and capacity expansion of the “Chengdu–Chongqing Hydrogen Corridor,” and building in batches green hydrogen routes such as the “Sichuan–Tibet Route,” “Chengdu–Deyang–Meishan–Ziyang Metropolitan Area,” “Panzhihua–Xichang–Ya’an–Chengdu,” “Chengdu–Deyang–Mianyang–Guangyuan,” “Chengdu–Ziyang–Zigong–Luzhou,” and “Chengdu–Suining–Nanchong–Dazhou.” 9. The People’s Government of Beijing Municipality issued the “Beautiful Beijing Development Plan for the ‘15th Five-Year Plan’ Period.” It emphasized improving measures such as convenient access for new energy vehicles, promoting the application of hydrogen fuel vehicles, and continuously advancing the new energy transition of trucks and buses. Enterprise Updates Dongfang Electric (Dongfang Hydrogen Energy) : On August 11, Dongfang Electric released an announcement of a board resolution, which reviewed and approved the proposal for Dongfang Hydrogen Energy’s Series B financing. Dongfang Hydrogen Energy planned to conduct Series B financing of no more than 1.17 billion yuan, with Dongfang Electric, Dongfang Boiler, and external investors making capital increases simultaneously. After the capital increase is completed, the combined shareholding of the two will remain unchanged at 52.95%. The funds will be used for hydrogen energy industry cultivation, technology iteration, and capacity development. This financing will become one of the few single-round financings at the 1 billion level in China’s hydrogen energy industry in non-IPO and non-SPAC scenarios. Houpu Co., Ltd. : Disclosed its 2026 semi-annual report. In H1, revenue reached 425 million yuan, up 8.36% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was 83.05 million yuan, up 518.55% YoY, turning losses into profits. The company has established a full-chain product and service system covering production, storage, refuelling, and use: its third-generation 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment completed an iterative upgrade and continued supplying European green hydrogen projects; its solid-state hydrogen storage system achieved commercial deployment and participated in a 100-kg-class solid-state hydrogen storage and hydrogen refuelling integration demonstration project in Southwest China; 35 MPa hydrogen refuelling turnkey equipment achieved batch deliveries, and 70 MPa equipment expanded into the general aviation sector; core components such as hydrogen nozzles and high-pressure hydrogen flow meters completed localisation substitution; and the liquid hydrogen refueller completed factory testing. The company also launched multi-steady-state flexible-system green ammonia synthesis technology, with maximum unit production of up to 10,000 mt/year, operating flexibility of 30%–110%, and green ammonia purity ≥99.9%. EPC projects have already been implemented in practice, including CNNC HuiNeng’s Inner Mongolia PV hydrogen-to-ammonia coupling project and Zhangye skid-mounted wind power hydrogen production and green ammonia production project. Rongcheng New Energy Group : Multiple implementation actions took place this week. On August 6, a batch delivery ceremony for 40 hydrogen-powered cold-chain trucks was held in Haikou; they are expected to serve frontline cold-chain transportation across Hainan, supported by an integrated methanol-to-hydrogen production and refuelling station to enable on-site hydrogen production and on-site refuelling. On August 7, Rongcheng New Energy and Wenfeng Group held a commissioning ceremony for the second batch of hydrogen heavy-duty trucks; following the commercial deployment of the first batch, this further expanded zero-carbon transport capacity in Tangshan, adopting an integrated model of "vehicle leasing + energy replenishment + scenario operations". In addition, four hydrogen car models under Rongcheng New Energy (a 170 kW hydrogen heavy-duty truck and 110 kW hydrogen sprinkling truck, road sweeper, and compressed garbage truck) were included in MIIT’s 410th batch of product announcements, covering two major application scenarios: trunk logistics and urban sanitation. Guoruichen (Qingdao) New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : On August 7, it held a full-chain hydrogen energy launch event, systematically showcasing for the first time an independent technology matrix spanning the entire industry chain of "production–storage–refuelling–use". It launched a new-generation PEM water electrolysis hydrogen production device tailored to the intermittency of wind and solar power, paired with a self-developed integrated wind-and-solar-plus-storage hydrogen smart energy management system; developed a room-temperature, low-pressure solid-state hydrogen storage device based on R&D of new-type lightweight, high-capacity hydrogen storage alloys; and rolled out full-power-range hydrogen fuel cell systems covering multi-tier application scenarios, including lightweight metal-plate stacks for low-altitude scenarios and graphite-plate stacks for heavy-duty truck scenarios. It implemented a modular hydrogen two-wheeler (hydrogen swapping takes only seconds) and an industrial-grade hydrogen drone with a driving range of up to 2.5 hours, and released a three-tier hydrogen supply network solution of "wind and solar power–hydrogen production–micro-stations" as well as a comprehensive solution for a "hydrogen zero-carbon industrial park". Anhui Mingtian Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : As a national-level “Little Giant” enterprise specialising in niche sectors with cutting-edge technologies, it built China’s first 10,000-set-scale fuel cell industrialisation plant, with products covering fuel cell stacks across the full power range of 10 kW–260 kW. It has cumulatively filed more than 400 national patents; the service life of its fuel cell systems increased from 1,000 hours to over 20,000 hours, and the cost dropped from 25,000 yuan per kW to 2,000 yuan. The price of a single air compressor fell from 178,000 yuan for imported units to 14,000 yuan through localisation. Its self-developed MTSYS-120 marine fuel cell system obtained Anhui province’s first China Classification Society (CCS) type approval certificate for hydrogen fuel cells; the system power is 120 kW and can be expanded to the megawatt (MW) level through modular combinations. Shunhua New Energy : On August 11, the Shunhua Hydrogen Energy Equipment Innovation Center Science and Technology Industrial Park, with a total investment of approximately 150 million yuan, was officially put into operation in Jiading, Shanghai. The park is a Shanghai “industrial buildings upward” demonstration project, integrating hydrogen energy equipment R&D, production, and settlement. At the opening ceremony, Shunhua New Energy signed strategic cooperation agreements with Shanghai Electric Green Energy Company and Hunan Liyu Gas Power, planning to jointly develop emerging hydrogen energy application scenarios such as offshore new energy and green-fuel power generation. Zhongchuang Yonghydrogen : Its self-developed mobile integrated hydrogen production and refuelling engineering prototype officially rolled off the line. The overall equipment volume is only 0.4–1 m³, and it can produce high-purity hydrogen with a purity of over 99.99% using only deionised water as the raw material. It is equipped with 5%–120% ultra-wide load dynamic regulation technology, supports on-demand use and charging, requires no civil works construction and no supporting pipeline network, and can be widely adapted to diverse scenarios including hydrogen forklifts, sanitation vehicles, vehicles and vessels, two-wheeled hydrogen vehicles, portable hydrogen power supplies, and scientific research experiments. CIMC Enric Holdings Limited : Anhydrous ammonia transport vehicles escorted the world’s largest single-batch green ammonia export. A 3,750 mt shipment of green ammonia produced in Da’an, Jilin was loaded and departed from Lianyungang, Jiangsu for South Korea, setting a new world record for single-batch green ammonia exports. The green ammonia came from SPIC’s “Hydrogen Continent · Da’an Green Ammonia” demonstration project (annual output: 32,000 mt of green hydrogen and 180,000 mt of green ammonia). The project has operated safely and stably for more than 300 days, achieving five “world’s first” milestones, including the world’s first ISCCEU green ammonia certification. Hangzhou Fenghua Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : On August 6, it successfully won the bid for projects related to the China Energy Engineering Group Zhejiang Institute’s Marine Integrated Energy Island, validating the performance of its PEM electrolyser products and marking further technological innovation and business implementation in offshore wind power hydrogen production scenarios. Adjustment to Electricity Price Policy for Hydrogen Energy Equipment Manufacturing Enterprises in Inner Mongolia : The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region removed provisions in the original policy under which production electricity consumption by hydrogen energy equipment manufacturing enterprises referenced the electricity prices for strategic emerging industries, and production electricity consumption by enterprises in eastern Inner Mongolia participated in market transactions with a 100% new energy allocation. Hydrogen energy equipment manufacturing enterprises will no longer enjoy the above exclusive electricity price policy and will revert to the market-based trading mechanism for ordinary large-scale industrial electricity consumption. Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui Chemical Co., Ltd. : On August 14, the company stated that the world’s first kt-scale pilot plant for producing sustainable aviation fuel via CO2 hydrogenation, jointly developed with Professor Wei Fei’s team at Tsinghua University and Sichuan Aolifen Catalytic Materials Co., Ltd., successfully passed a 72-hour continuous operation assessment, opening up a new green technology pathway from CO2 to aviation propulsion fuels. Patent Applications 1. Hopewind (China) filed patent application CN122512780A, disclosing “Hydrogen Production Power Supply, Renewable Energy Hydrogen Production System, and Hydrogen Production Power Supply Control Method.” The hydrogen production power supply includes a first-stage AC/DC converter and a second-stage DC/DC converter, and can autonomously maintain AC bus stability when renewable energy power fluctuates, avoiding shutdown of the hydrogen production system due to power shortfalls, ensuring continuity of hydrogen production operations, and extending the service life of the electrolyzer. 2. Huizhou EVE Hydrogen Energy Co., Ltd. (China) filed patent application CN122543087A, disclosing “Catalyst Layer, Electrode, Membrane Electrode Assembly, Electrolysis Device, and Electrolysis Process.” The catalyst layer material includes a catalyst and an adhesive containing modified groups. The modified groups include cationic hydrophilic groups and non-ionic groups, enabling the catalyst layer to firmly bind water molecules while maintaining an appropriate hydrophilic–hydrophobic balance, improving water retention and interfacial performance, thereby enhancing the performance of the catalyst layer, membrane electrode assembly, and electrolysis device. 3. Shanghai Qingshang Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (China) filed patent application CN122558479A, disclosing “A Nano Aluminum-Based Reversible Hydrogen Storage Composite Material and Its Preparation Method.” Using aluminum powder (50-60 parts), composite catalyst (5-6 parts), copper powder (2-3 parts), titanium powder (2-3 parts), cobalt powder (1-2 parts), and grinding aid (6-7 parts) as raw material, and through processes such as pressing, sintering, and ball-milling hydrogenation, aluminum trihydride (with relatively high hydrogen storage density) is generated within the aluminum-based alloy material. By compounding the composite catalyst and a nanostructure, reversible hydrogen absorption and desorption of the nano aluminum-based reversible hydrogen storage composite material is achieved. 4. China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co., Ltd. (China) obtained patent CN224582854U, disclosing “An Integrated Power Generation System for Subsea Hydrogen Energy Storage”. The system includes a power conversion module, a power aggregation module, a water electrolysis hydrogen production module, and a hydrogen energy storage module. It uses electricity generated by offshore power generation facilities to electrolyse seawater to produce hydrogen and store it, maximising the rational use of resources and improving the stable operation of the power grid. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications 1. Sinopec’s Xinjiang Kuqa 10kt-class green hydrogen demonstration project achieved 100% full-load continuous operation of all 52 alkaline electrolyser units, reaching the designed capacity. All large circular alkaline electrolysers used in the project were supplied by enterprises in China, with a localisation rate of 100%. The unit cost of electrolysers decreased from 15,000 yuan/kW two years ago to 7,000 yuan/kW. Combined with local solar irradiation conditions, the PV-side levelised cost of electricity decreased to 0.15 yuan/kWh, translating into a total green hydrogen production cost of approximately 18 yuan/kg, preliminarily demonstrating economic competitiveness with fossil-fuel-based hydrogen production. This achievement verified that 10kt-class green hydrogen facilities can operate reliably over long cycles, providing the most solid data support for subsequent large-scale commercialisation. 2. Shandong Saikesaisi Hydrogen Energy Co., Ltd. took the lead in China in achieving a breakthrough in megawatt-class PEM water electrolysis hydrogen production core technology, becoming the first enterprise in China to realise the development, assembly, and industrialisation deployment of megawatt-class PEM electrolysers, breaking the monopoly of overseas core technologies. Without sacrificing performance, the enterprise significantly reduced the use of precious metals in catalysts within hydrogen production electrolysers, substantially lowering system costs, and established a step-by-step validation pathway from laboratory prototypes to 100-watt-class small-scale testing, 10-kW pilot-scale testing, and then megawatt-class engineering prototypes. 3. The main part of the project for the nation’s first high-pressure, long-distance green hydrogen pipeline (the Damaoqi–Baotou long-distance hydrogen transmission pipeline) was basically completed. The pipeline has a total length of 195 km. The project overcame the challenge of hydrogen embrittlement in high-pressure hydrogen transmission, and, in collaboration with research institutes, developed dedicated L360MH steel-grade pipes with added rare-earth elements. It innovatively established a safety evaluation system centred on the hydrogen embrittlement sensitivity index, fracture toughness, and fatigue crack growth rate, providing a replicable and scalable high-pressure pure hydrogen pipeline engineering model for the large-scale construction of China’s hydrogen energy storage and transportation infrastructure. 4. The draft standard GB/T34593 Safety Requirements for Fuel Cell Engines, led by FAW Jiefang as the principal drafter, was reviewed and discussed at the 42nd (second in 2026) meeting of the Electric Vehicles Sub-Technical Committee of the National Automotive Standardization Technical Committee and the Fuel Cell EV Standards Working Group. The revised national standard is about to be implemented. The industry will accelerate the phase-out of low-reliability and non-compliant products, driving market competition to shift from simple parameter comparisons to a comprehensive contest of safety, durability, and life cycle cost, and shifting the industrial development model from “promotion first, regulation later” to standards-first and regulation-led. 5. The world’s first kt-scale pilot plant for producing sustainable aviation fuel via CO₂ hydrogenation (jointly developed by Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui Chemical, Professor Wei Fei’s team at Tsinghua University, and Sichuan Aolifen Catalytic Materials Co., Ltd.) successfully passed a 72-hour continuous operation assessment, opening up a new green technology pathway from CO₂ to aviation propulsion fuel and laying a critical foundation for the industrial-scale deployment of sustainable aviation fuel produced from green hydrogen coupled with CO₂. 6. The main structure of the plant building for CSSC Peric Hydrogen Energy’s Shuangyashan Jixian electrolyzer manufacturing base was topped out. This project is Heilongjiang Province’s first equipment manufacturing project for hydrogen production via water electrolysis, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan. It is expected to achieve an annual output of 30 large electrolyzers in the 1,000–2,000 Nm³/h class. Leveraging the mature technology of CSSC (Handan) Peric Hydrogen Energy, it is committed to realizing independent and controllable capabilities across the entire industry chain from key equipment to end-use products, and to providing key supporting equipment for Jixian County’s green methanol industry.

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Prices Consolidate at Highs, Spot Trading Skews Toward Lower Levels] SMM News, August 17: Cooling rate-hike expectations provided support, but liquidity risk disruptions limited gains, and silver prices consolidated at highs. Wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market was strong, and trading skewed toward lower levels.

South Africa’s June production of platinum group metals (PGMs) fell 8.4% YoY, the main factor dragging down national mining output; South Africa’s total mining output in June was -4.0% YoY. In April, supported by a low base, PGMs once surged 36.5% YoY, but turned negative consecutively in May–June, indicating that the supply-side recovery fell short of expectations; mining sales benefited from international platinum and palladium prices maintaining strong YoY gains. The data are preliminary, and the statistics bureau does not break out physical output for individual products such as platinum and palladium.

SMM News on August 15: Metals market: Overnight last Friday, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.49%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper fell 0.31% for the week. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,945 yuan/mt. SHFE lead fell 0.22%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, and SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel edged up 0.07%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.19%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.49%, iron ore fell 0.35%, and rebar fell 0.03%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.97%. Overnight last Friday, in overseas metals, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.26%; on a weekly basis, LME copper extended gains for seven consecutive weeks, rising 1.07% for the week. LME aluminum rose 0.22%. LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.45%. LME tin rose 0.36%. LME nickel rose 0.3%. Overnight last Friday, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.26%; COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 0.73% for the week. COMEX silver fell 0.26%; COMEX silver recorded a second consecutive weekly gain, up 2.09% for the week. Overnight last Friday, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.6%; SHFE gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 1.68% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.57%; SHFE silver extended gains for four consecutive weeks, up 3.45% for the week. As of 7:17 on August 15, the overnight closing performance last Friday: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate Social Financing Rose by 22.25 Trillion Yuan in the First Seven Months; M2 Up 7.7% YoY in July] According to preliminary statistics from the PBOC, in the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period a year earlier. Among this, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 1.017 trillion yuan, an increase of 214 billion yuan less YoY; foreign-currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, increased by 169.4 billion yuan, an increase of 241.9 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 81 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1 billion yuan more YoY; trust loans decreased by 67.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 226.4 billion yuan more YoY; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 178.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan less YoY; net financing via enterprise bonds was 252 billion yuan, 110 billion yuan more YoY; net financing via government bonds was 776 billion yuan, 115 billion yuan less YoY; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 406.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan more YoY. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 827.1 billion yuan, including a decrease of 928.1 billion yuan in short-term loans and an increase of 101 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 11 trillion yuan, including an increase of 434 million yuan in short-term loans, an increase of 532 million yuan in medium and long-term loans, and an increase of 119 million yuan in bill financing; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 394.4 billion yuan. At month-end in July, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 11.546 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 1.482 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. In the first seven months, net cash injections totaled 725.5 billion yuan. [Shanghai: Promoting the Momentum-Building of Leading Industries Such as Integrated Circuits, Civil Aviation, Intelligent Vehicles, and High-End Equipment] Today (August 14), Chen Jining, Secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, spent the entire day conducting a survey in the Lin-gang Special Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone and chaired a symposium. Chen noted that the Lin-gang Special Area must always place advanced manufacturing in a prominent position and unswervingly enhance its capacity level and core competitiveness. It should seize opportunities in digital-intelligent and green transformation, and while ensuring project implementation, place greater emphasis on cultivating an industrial ecosystem—fostering industry leaders and high-growth enterprises, planning industrial platforms and enhancing service capabilities, strengthening the resilience and stickiness of industrial development, and promoting the momentum-building of leading industries such as integrated circuits, civil aviation, intelligent vehicles, and high-end equipment. It should leverage the advantage of abundant manufacturing scenarios to advance the digital-intelligent transformation of industry, and increase the application of industrial robots, vertical models, and intelligent agents in key links such as production and manufacturing and equipment operation and maintenance, driving systematic, end-to-end transformation across industrial design, pilot-scale validation, inspection and detection, and marketing and operations. It should optimize the business environment and improve services for enterprises, accelerating the cultivation of world-class enterprises. It should deepen reforms of management systems in development zones, and refine and improve reform plans around key links such as functional positioning, spatial integration, professional services, and assessment and evaluation. (Shanghai Release) US dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.32% overnight last Friday to 99.64. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index rose 0.04% for the week. US retail sales released on Friday fell 0.6% MoM in July, the largest decline in more than a year. Combined with mild inflation data this week, market pricing for a US Fed rate hike in September further collapsed. The US dollar index declined. With a mild CPI on Wednesday, zero MoM growth in PPI on Thursday, and a downside surprise in retail sales on Friday, the three-hit combination drove the probability of a September rate hike down from 75% at month-end in July to around 25%. CME FedWatch showed that 67% of traders bet on no change in September. The focus of market pricing has shifted from “how many more rate hikes” to “whether this rate-hike cycle has already ended.” (Wallstreetcn) The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that July retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, the biggest decline in more than a year, versus market expectations of a slight increase. Core control group sales excluding autos, building materials, and gas stations fell 0.4%, the weakest performance since January 2025. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August released the same day came in at just 51, well below the expected 54.5. (Wallstreetcn) As households grew concerned about worsening business conditions and rising inflation, US consumer sentiment fell for the first time in three months. According to survey data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the preliminary August consumer sentiment index dropped to 51, below the final July reading of 55.2. The median economist forecast was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, edging up MoM and well above the level before the Iran conflict broke out in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years. After improving for two consecutive months, consumers’ confidence in both the short-term and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Since the start of the year, consumers’ expectations for the labour market have changed relatively little. The survey showed consumers are increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment have eased. The survey covered responses collected from July 28 to August 10. During this period, the US national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released on Friday showed US retail sales in July posted the biggest drop in more than a year, as consumers cut back on purchases of autos and from online stores. (Jinshi Data APP) US Fed’s Goolsbee said he supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July. He noted that the latest two productivity readings were not ideal, and if productivity continues to weaken, the US Fed may need to reassess market expectations for artificial intelligence (AI). Goolsbee said the latest CPI data were encouraging, but more data are needed before making a judgment; persistent weakness in consumption is concerning, though the current retail sales weakness is only a one-month performance. Meanwhile, US GDP and the labour market were basically stable overall. (From the Wallstreetcn APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 67.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 32.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October is 53.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 6.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including China’s July total retail sales (YoY), China’s July industrial output above designated size (YoY), Canada’s July CPI (MoM), the US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, the US August NAHB Housing Market Index, the UK three-month ILO unemployment rate for June, the UK July unemployment rate, the UK July claimant count, Germany’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the Eurozone’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 1, the annualized total US July housing starts, total US July building permits, the US July import price index (MoM), the US July industrial production (MoM), the US July pending home sales index (MoM), the UK July CPI (MoM), the UK July retail price index (MoM), the Eurozone’s June seasonally adjusted current account, the Eurozone’s final July CPI (YoY), the Eurozone’s final July CPI (MoM), the share of Swift RMB in global payments for China in July, China’s one-year loan prime rate through August 20, Australia’s July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July PPI (MoM), Switzerland’s July trade balance, the UK August CBI industrial trends orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, the US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the US July Conference Board Leading Index (MoM), the UK August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, Japan’s July core CPI (YoY), the UK July public sector net borrowing, the UK July seasonally adjusted retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for France, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for Germany, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the UK, the preliminary August services PMI for the UK, Canada’s June retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the US, the preliminary global services PMI, and the preliminary August consumer confidence index for the Eurozone, among others. In addition, this week also required attention to: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on national economic performance; ECB President Lagarde attending the “Global Economic Outlook” session at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; the US Fed releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; and Hang Seng Indexes Company announcing the results of the Hang Seng Index Series review for 2026 Q2. On crude oil: Overnight on Friday, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.42% and Brent up 2.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures rose 5.4% for the week, while Brent posted a positive weekly close, up 6.31% for the week. International oil prices rose as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly ground to a halt. Two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz that day, bringing passage to a near standstill; the US said it could maintain a maritime blockade of Iran indefinitely, and Trump said he would impose severe economic strikes on Iran. Capital Economics estimated that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were currently only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, far below pre-conflict levels. Prompt Brent maintained a spot premiums structure, indicating continued tightness in physical supply. Capacity at three of the world’s four major refining hubs was damaged, and the surge in refined product prices was being directly passed through to end consumers. (Wallstreetcn) Traders said that as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, Asian refiners were seeking alternative supplies for delivery later this year, and at least four Asian refiners bought US crude oil this week. Both the US and Iran claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel traffic through the strait fell below this month’s average in the latter half of the week. With no sign of a near-term resumption of smooth shipping through the strait, tightening fuel supplies will lift refining margins, prompting refiners to lock in crude oil inventory needed for the coming months from markets outside the Gulf region. South Korea’s GS Caltex bought 2 million barrels of Mars crude from Shell, plan to deliver in November. Traders said the cargo was priced at a premium of about $13-$14 per barrel to the October Dubai benchmark price. Japan’s third-largest refiner, Cosmo Energy Holdings, bought Mars crude from Trafigura; Japan’s largest refiner, ENEOS, purchased 2 million barrels of WTI crude from Trafigura, plan to deliver in November, at a premium of more than $10 per barrel to October WTI prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US oil production is expected to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, versus 13.82 million barrels per day in July; September is expected to average 13.77 million barrels per day. (Jinshi Data APP) Notably, due to position rolling and contract rollover, NYMEX New York crude oil September futures will complete the last floor trading at 2:30 on August 21 and the last electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange’s expiry and rollover notices to manage risk. In addition, the expiry time for US oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule; please pay close attention. Recommended Reading: