SMM, August 3 According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry rose 0.9% month-on-month in July 2026, while falling 1.7% year-on-year, mainly driven by slight increases in the monthly average price of alumina, prebaked anode prices, and electricity prices during the period. The monthly average SMM A00 spot price in July (June 26 – July 25) stood at RMB 22,977 per tonne, down 4.2% month-on-month. Electrolytic aluminum profit margins narrowed by RMB 1,146 per tonne to RMB 6,999 per tonne, with average profitability up 56.8% year-on-year. Measured by the monthly average price, 100% of domestic operating electrolytic aluminum capacity was in profit in July. By cost component: Alumina: According to SMM data, the monthly average SMM Alumina Index in July (June 26 – July 25) was RMB 2,745 per tonne, up 1.6% month-on-month. Alumina prices fluctuated within a range through the month as inventories continued to accumulate; overseas alumina prices, however, rose on restocking ahead of production restarts and new capacity ramp-ups. Entering August, the alumina market is expected to maintain its current supply structure. Against a backdrop of net imports, there is no sign of an inflection point toward inventory drawdown, but cost support has lifted Guinean sellers' asking prices, lending upward momentum to alumina costs. In the near term, the tug-of-war between cost support and loose supply in the spot alumina market is set to continue. With prices relatively low at the start of the month, the August average price is expected to edge down slightly. Auxiliary materials: In July, rigid demand from electrolytic aluminum underpinned domestic anode consumption, while export demand from Southeast Asia offset reductions in the Middle East, leaving the prebaked anode market relatively steady. Long-term contract procurement prices rose marginally by RMB 30 per tonne month-on-month. In the fluoride salt market, downstream buyers maintained rigid procurement and held off on purchases to push prices lower, leading to declines in procurement prices at major producers. Entering August, with cost support softening and supply continuing to expand, prebaked anode prices are expected to edge down slightly; fluoride salt prices, by contrast, are projected to rise on the back of rigid cost support combined with low operating rates. Overall, auxiliary material costs for electrolytic aluminum are expected to decline slightly in August. Electricity prices: Electricity prices rose modestly month-on-month in July. Entering August, electricity prices are expected to remain broadly stable, and overall power costs for electrolytic aluminum are projected to hold steady. In summary, the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of SMM's domestic electrolytic aluminum industry rose slightly in July 2026; electrolytic aluminum costs are expected to decline modestly in August, with the average hovering around RMB 15,700–16,100 per tonne.

According to SMM data, in July 2026, the average tax-inclusive full cost of domestic aluminum industry rebounded 0.9% MoM and fell 1.7% YoY, mainly due to slight rebounds in average monthly alumina prices, prebaked anode prices, and electricity prices during the period. In July, the aluminum profit margin narrowed by 1,146 yuan/mt to 6,999 yuan/mt, with average profit up 56.8% YoY.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] Recently, the groundbreaking ceremony for the annual 300,000 mt prebaked anode project was held at the Shuicheng Economic Development Zone in Liupanshui City. The project is jointly constructed by Sunstone Development Co., Ltd. and Guizhou Aluminum Group Co., Ltd., marking the entry of the strategic cooperation between the two parties into the construction phase and serving as a key measure for Sunstone Development to optimize its capacity layout in Southwest China.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] According to SMM, the tender price of prebaked anode for August at a major aluminum smelter in Shandong fell by 53 yuan/mt MoM, and the spot execution price of prebaked anode for August 2026 will be 5,630 yuan/mt, with an acceptance price of 5,645 yuan/mt.

SMM, July 30 – Raw material side, China’s petroleum coke market saw broadly improved trading this week. Low-sulphur coke remained firm and strengthened further, mainstream medium- and high-sulphur coke moved up broadly, and prices across all specifications edged higher. On the refinery side, major refineries held stable to firmer, supporting the market. CNOOC refineries’ petroleum coke auction transaction prices climbed continuously, with gains concentrated at 50-150 yuan/mt, and the more active auctions boosted bullish sentiment. PetroChina’s low-sulphur coke in-factory inventory in north-east China stayed low, and concentrated release of downstream rigid demand kept prices steady this week. Sinopec refineries saw recently improved downstream purchasing appetite, especially along the Yangtze River where ample anode material energy storage orders supported smooth refinery shipments, providing some floor to coke prices; prices were raised slightly by 10-30 yuan/mt. Independent refineries’ overall shipments performed well, earlier downstream resistance to high medium- and high-sulphur coke prices eased somewhat, restocking purchases increased, and petroleum coke prices strengthened in tandem. SMM’s latest data showed the No. 1 petroleum coke spot price index in north-east China registered 4,415.73 yuan/mt, flat WoW; Shandong’s No. 2 petroleum coke spot price index registered 4,276.73 yuan/mt, up 0.93% WoW; Shandong’s No. 3 petroleum coke spot price index registered 3,738.11 yuan/mt, up 1.12% WoW; and Shandong’s No. 4 petroleum coke spot price index registered 2,093.05 yuan/mt, up 4.46% WoW. During the week, China’s overall refinery operating load remained steady and supply growth in the market was limited; downstream end-user purchasing and stockpiling sentiment was moderate. Combined with strong support from rising crude oil costs driven by international geopolitical disruptions, and amid multiple bullish factors, the domestic petroleum coke market is expected to consolidate on a strong note in the near term, with low-sulphur coke showing stronger price resilience and structural divergence among grades persisting. The coal tar pitch market improved somewhat this week. As of Thursday this week, the average price of coal tar pitch was 4,713 yuan/mt, up 0.18% from last Thursday. Overall, prebaked anode cost support remained relatively firm this week. Supply side, prebaked anode enterprises continued their production pace of producing based on sales. New anode projects in Xinjiang, Guangxi and other regions came onstream successively, with new capacity continuing to be released. Meanwhile, some enterprises saw operating rates pull back slightly due to maintenance, but overall the industry’s supply capability improved steadily and supply flexibility increased further. Demand side, China’s operating aluminum capacity stayed high, providing steady rigid support for prebaked anode consumption. On the export side, new aluminum projects in Indonesia continued to come online, driving sustained improvement in China’s anode exports. Overall, China’s new prebaked anode supply kept materializing, high aluminum operating rates effectively supported domestic demand, and the export market improved marginally. The industry’s supply-demand balance remained generally stable, but as new capacity continued to be released, supply growth slightly outpaced demand growth, intensifying market competition. Commentary: This week, prebaked anode raw material side improved in tandem; petroleum coke market fundamentals provided solid support, coal tar pitch prices recovered slightly, and the industry’s overall production cost edged up. According to SMM data monitoring, as of July 30, China’s prebaked anode production cost stood at 5,597.13 yuan/mt, up 0.73% from last Thursday. Looking ahead, on the cost side, petroleum coke still has strong bottom support and the coal tar pitch market is expected to improve somewhat; overall raw material support for anode costs remains fairly favourable. On the supply-demand front, aluminum enterprises’ high operating rates continued to underpin domestic anode demand, while a marginal recovery in export orders brought incremental growth. However, the concentrated addition of new capacity and continuous supply release have further intensified market competition. As contract rollover approaches, overall raw material market support has eased slightly within the cycle, and prebaked anode prices are expected to decline next month; updates on specific adjustments will follow closely.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] SMM learned that a large domestic prebaked anode sales company raised its base prebaked anode selling price for August 2026 by 59 yuan/mt MoM. The selling prices in various regions are: north-west China: 5,858 yuan/mt; North China: 5,808 yuan/mt; south-west China: 5,858 yuan/mt; South China: 5,858 yuan/mt.