As of Friday, SiMn 6517 (cash) in north China was at 5,600-5,700 yuan/mt, down WoW; in south China, SiMn 6517 (cash) was at 5,650-5,750 yuan/mt, down WoW, and SiMn 6014 (cash) there was at 5,450-5,500 yuan/mt, down WoW. Recently, SiMn futures moved weakly sideways in a narrow range, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, low willingness to sell among producers, and weak spot and futures prices.

[SMM Analysis] Weak Off-Season Demand and Firm Raw Materials Drive Up Stainless Steel Costs, Narrowing Profits This week, stainless steel production costs edged up slightly, while product prices remained stable overall, leading to a slight narrowing of steel mill profit margins. Using 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the current raw material-calculated profit margin was 2.16%, while the inventory raw material-calculated profit margin was 1.44%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, this week high-grade NPI prices edged up. Although the market has entered the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, with weak end-use demand, insufficient market confidence, and strong steel mill desires to bargain down prices, the limited production cuts for 300-series stainless steel in June meant a relatively small decline in demand for high-grade NPI. Combined with persistent disturbances from Indonesian news and a firm stance on holding prices from upstream players, these factors collectively drove high-grade NPI prices to hold up well. As of this Friday, the mainstream grade of 10%-12% high-grade NPI rose by 0.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,144 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, this week stainless steel scrap prices edged up. Driven by the linkage effect of firm spot finished steel and strong high-grade NPI, scrap prices also moved higher synchronously. However, under the suppression of multiple bearish factors such as weak demand in the traditional off-season, tight supply of tax invoices, and steel mill process limitations, its upside room was limited. Currently, bullish and bearish factors are counterbalancing each other, and it is expected that in the short term, stainless steel scrap prices will mainly remain stable. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cut prices in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,450 yuan/mt. Chrome-based raw material cost side, this week high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained stable. Although in the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, in June steel...

According to statistics from SMM, China's output of high-carbon ferrochrome in May 2026 rose by 5.09% month-on-month and 23.85% year-on-year.

[SMM Weekly Platinum and Palladium Review] This week (May 11 – May 15), the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on China's GFEX opened at 509 yuan/gram and closed at 499.05 yuan/gram, down 14.95 yuan/gram or 2.91% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 542.25 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 496.05 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 366 yuan/gram and closed at 345 yuan/gram, down 26.45 yuan/gram or 7.12% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 376.85 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 340 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 32,874 lots with a total turnover of 17.139 billion yuan and open interest of 9,970 lots, down 4,309 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,453 lots with a total turnover of 6.651 billion yuan and open interest of 6,565 lots, down 499 lots WoW. Platinum and palladium first rose and then declined during the week. Peru experienced a sudden energy crisis within the week and issued a national emergency decree. Power rationing was expected to cause mine shutdowns, thereby affecting supply. As the world's 12th largest mining country, Peru holds 21.8% of global silver reserves, which triggered a silver rally. Driven by sector spillover effects, platinum and palladium also rose accordingly. The subsequent decline was concentrated on Friday, when platinum and palladium plunged sharply intraday. Trump's visit to China eased tariff expectations and suppressed strategic resource premiums, while a rising US dollar index and elevated medium- to long-term US Treasury yields jointly weighed on precious metal valuations. On the Middle East geopolitical front: Gulf states discussed post-war regional governance. Saudi Arabia proposed a non-aggression pact, and Israel's defense minister stated that military action against Iran might be taken again. On the US Fed front: the US Senate confirmed Warsh as Fed Chairman by a vote of 54 to 45. However, Powell is expected to remain as a Fed governor. This vote marked the most partisan-divided confirmation in history. "The strongest dissenting governor" Miran officially submitted his resignation on Thursday, stating that the current interest rates were too high. On trade and tariffs: during Trump's visit to China, the two sides reached multiple important consensuses, agreeing to manage tariff differences and restart dedicated trade negotiations. The US suspended new tariffs on China and will gradually reduce punitive tariffs. Both sides enhanced strategic mutual trust and expanded cooperation across multiple areas, laying an important foundation for the easing and stable development of bilateral relations. In terms of supply: South Africa's power shortage eased significantly, and PGM mine expansions progressed; Nornickel's Q1 platinum and palladium production declined sharply, mainly due to Western sanctions affecting its payments, logistics, and equipment imports. Nornickel's platinum and palladium production is expected to see significant production cuts in 2026. On the demand side: PGM demand from the fiberglass industry showed positive momentum. In 2026, China's fiberglass industry is expected to shift from platinum-based to palladium-based applications, with multiple enterprises deploying related technologies and considerable substitution potential. Recent precious metals market trading focused on uncertainties arising from recurring Middle East geopolitical conflicts, US Fed monetary policy expectations, economic stagflation, and financial market risks. Continued attention should be paid to changes in Middle East geopolitical dynamics, the implementation of power rationing in Peru, and speeches by US Fed officials, as well as palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector.

[Price Review] Silver fluctuated upward this week, charting an independent trend with gains significantly outpacing gold. On the news front, Peru was hit by a sudden energy crisis and issued a national emergency decree; power rationing is expected to cause mine shutdowns, thereby affecting supply. As the world's 12th largest mining country, Peru holds 21.8% of global silver reserves, which ignited the silver rally. On the macro front, US April non-farm payrolls and CPI both exceeded expectations, with the inflation rebound reinforcing the US Fed's stance on delaying interest rate cuts, with probabilities of holding rates unchanged in June and July reaching 93.5% and 86.5%, respectively. Industrial demand side, the spot market remained weak; rising absolute silver prices continued to suppress downstream demand. Suppliers generally reported sluggish market transactions and weak buying sentiment, leading to low enthusiasm for offering quotes, a widening price spread between high and low quotes, and an overall tepid trading atmosphere in the spot market, with spot inventory continuing to accumulate. Gold/silver ratio, as of May 13, the LBMA gold/silver ratio fell to 54, hitting a new low since 2013. [Key Data] Bullish: Peru was hit by a sudden nationwide energy crisis and declared a state of emergency lasting until year-end, with mine power usage restricted. If strict power rationing is enforced, silver production is expected to decline by 3%-10%, and the global supply-demand gap is expected to widen by 15%-30%. US April non-farm payrolls data showed a continued divergence of "strong services, weak manufacturing," highlighting a stagflation pattern. Bearish US April CPI came in at 3.8% YoY and core CPI at 2.8% YoY, both exceeding expectations, reinforcing the US Fed's stance on delaying interest rate cuts. US-Iran negotiations reached an impasse, with the US side fully rejecting Iran's proposal amid major core disagreements; shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist. Hawkish Warsh was officially confirmed as the next Fed Chairman, and multiple officials stated they do not rule out the possibility of resuming rate hikes. [Recent Focus] May 15: New Fed Chairman Warsh's first public speech. May 16: US April retail sales, May New York Fed Manufacturing Index. May 17: US initial jobless claims, April industrial production MoM. May 20: US April core PCE price index. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to see wild swings at elevated levels next week, with the core variables being the implementation of power rationing in Peru and progress in US-Iran negotiations. Amid the risk of prolonged US inflation, stagflation trades are poised to become the core narrative for the next round of precious metals rallies. If a de-escalation in geopolitical conflicts drives oil prices to pull back, it will provide favorable conditions for opening a monetary easing window after Warsh assumes the role of Fed Chairman. On the fundamentals side in China, downstream buying sentiment remained persistently weak. The continued rise in the absolute price of silver kept suppressing downstream demand, with heavy wait-and-see sentiment. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate, and the mainstream spot transaction discount in the market is expected to remain in the range of a 40-10 yuan/kg discount to the SGE TD price.

On May 11, 2026, the Peruvian government issued Emergency Decree No. 003-2026 in response to an energy crisis, triggering widespread market concerns over non-ferrous metal supply. However, through an in-depth analysis of the underlying energy consumption structure of the tin industry and Peru's domestic supply landscape, we believe this decree will have negligible actual impact on global tin ingot supply. The market's current anxiety stems more from supply concerns. This article aims to strip away macro noise and restore the true operational logic of the tin industry. I. The Nature of the Energy Crisis and Its Relevance to Tin Smelting The core of this Peruvian crisis is a "gas shortage" triggered by a natural gas pipeline rupture, which could potentially lead to power shortages. The logical basis for market concerns about mining sector damage lies in "high energy consumption." However, from the perspective of tin's physicochemical properties and smelting processes, tin is not a high energy-consuming metal: Short process flow: Tin smelting primarily employs Ausmelt and similar smelting processes to reduce tin concentrates into crude tin. Although this process requires high temperatures, the electricity consumption per mt of tin is far lower than that of aluminum or blister copper smelting. Low share in cost structure: In the production cost of tin ingots, raw materials (tin concentrates) typically account for over 80%, while energy (electricity, heavy oil/coal) costs represent an extremely low proportion. Even in the face of power rationing or short-term price increases, the marginal impact on the comprehensive production cost of tin ingots is almost negligible. II. Peru's Domestic Tin Industry Landscape: Peru's sole tin producer and the world's second-largest tin company — Minsur: Proprietary clean energy advantage: Minsur's San Rafael mine and Pisco smelter rely heavily on proprietary hydropower stations in the Peruvian Andes for their electricity supply. Peru's natural gas crisis primarily affects industries and residential users dependent on natural gas, with limited impact on mining areas powered mainly by hydropower. Volume: In 2025, Peru's tin concentrates production was approximately 33,800 mt, accounting for around 10% of global total production. Policy orientation: The government's emergency decree primarily focuses on safeguarding the nation's energy lifeline (such as Petroperú's operations), rather than directly intervening in the supply-demand balance of metals. III. Where Is the Real "Pain Point" in Global Tin Supply? Rather than focusing on Peru's natural gas pipeline, attention should be directed toward the true bottlenecks constraining global tin supply: Myanmar Wa State production halt: Production resumptions in the Wa State region have been slow, and Myanmar's rainy season is approaching. Indonesia's seasonal disruptions:Indonesia's rainy season and RKAB (mining and production quota) policies cause periodic disruptions to global tin ingot exports every year. These are the core variables that will determine future tin price trends. Peru's energy crisis plays a negligible role among them. IV. Conclusions and Investment Recommendations Based on the above analysis, we conclude that Peru's energy crisis legislation has negligible actual impact on tin ingot supply, and current concerns represent an overreaction by the market. Supply side:Peru's tin ingot supply will remain highly stable. The global tin ingot supply bottleneck remains in Myanmar, Indonesia, and other regions, not in Peru's natural gas pipeline. Price side:Tin prices will not experience fundamentally driven increases due to Peru's energy crisis. Short-term tin price fluctuations are more likely driven by macro sentiment, rallies in other metals (such as copper and silver), or sentiment-driven speculation by capital exploiting the "Peru crisis" narrative. Strategy recommendation: Investors are advised to strip away the noise from Peru's energy crisis when monitoring tin price trends and return to fundamentals. Key focus should be on expectations for production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State, Indonesia's export policies, and marginal changes in downstream electronic solder demand.