Driven by the combined impact of macro policies and geopolitical factors, the stainless steel market outside China saw a marked upward shift in the cost center. Indonesia’s decision to impose tariffs on nickel and coal exports, together with the implementation of Europe’s CBAM carbon tax, directly ignited bullish sentiment across the raw material supply chain, leading to firm Indonesian export offers and a sharp surge in European alloy surcharges. Pushed strongly by costs, steel mills across many parts of Asia intensively raised their list prices. However, end-use demand outside China showed significant structural divergence, with Japan and South Korea remaining resilient while Taiwan, China came under pressure. As the rapid price rally in the earlier period triggered downstream fear of high prices, current procurement is strictly limited to rigid demand. Looking ahead, the specific implementation details of Indonesia’s tariffs and validation of substantive demand will become the core variables shaping futures. In the short term, markets outside China are likely to hover at highs while maintaining a cautious wait-and-see stance.

Century Aluminum Company (CENX) has reported higher costs and expenses in 2025. Cost of sales increased by 10.9 per cent compared to the previous year. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose by about 41 per cent. Other operating costs also increased by more than 100 per cent. The main cost pressures came from key inputs like alumina, electricity and carbon products. These made up over 84 per cent of total production costs. Changes in energy and raw material prices have also added pressure. Equipment issues at the Grundartangi plant in Iceland affected the cost efficiency.

【SMM Steel】ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih will halt its Foundry and Mechanical Plant (LMZ) in three months, cutting over 1,700 jobs. Total cuts exceed 2,400 with the blooming shop also closing. Soaring power costs from infrastructure attacks and expensive imports made steel production unviable. EU's CBAM, effective 2026 with no Ukraine exemption, blocked European market access, drying up LMZ orders.

[SMM Daily Chrome Review: Ore-Side Uptrend Continued, with Cost Support for Ferrochrome] News on March 4, 2026: The ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was flat MoM from the previous trading day…

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the joint military strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has become the largest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions on the order of several million mt while also pushing up smelting costs. Coupled with risk-off market sentiment, aluminum price volatility may be amplified. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalation of the conflict, strait blockades, and raw material supply cutoffs, as well as further impacts on aluminum prices from macro disruptions, and to respond prudently to operational and investment risks arising from supply chain fluctuations.

SMM February 28 news: According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in February 2026 fell 0.9% MoM and dropped 5.7% YoY. During the period, alumina raw material costs and auxiliary material costs declined, and the total cost pulled back slightly. The average SMM A00 spot price (January 26–February 25) in February was largely stable, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 7,707 yuan/mt. If the industry calculates based on the monthly average price, 100% of domestic operating aluminum capacity was profitable in February. Cost breakdown: Alumina raw material side : SMM data showed the average SMM alumina index in February was 2,621 yuan/mt (January 26–February 25), down 1.7% MoM. Production cuts at alumina plants during the month shifted inventory to destocking, but after the holiday, some aluminum smelters proactively reduced inventory, resulting in actual demand being lower than theoretical demand. Prices saw only a slight rebound by month-end, and the monthly average price dropped MoM. Entering March, alumina prices face both bullish and bearish factors. On one hand, operating alumina capacity is expected to decline MoM; on the other hand, aluminum smelters’ proactive destocking is expected to reduce demand. Overall, alumina raw material prices are projected to change by a relatively small margin. Auxiliary material market side : Both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back in February. In March, prebaked anode and aluminum fluoride prices are expected to maintain a slight downward trend, and auxiliary material costs are projected to decrease. Electricity price side : Electricity prices were generally stable in February, with slight declines in some regions, leading to a small drop in the national average aluminum power cost. Entering March, electricity prices are expected to remain largely stable, and aluminum power costs are projected to hold steady. Overall, SMM expects the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in March 2026 to be largely stable, averaging around 15,750–16,150 yuan/mt.