SMM, July 6 news: In June, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, with the US dollar index gaining over 2% for the month. This was compounded by the electronics industry entering its traditional off-season and weak end-use demand, along with market skepticism over the sustainability of the AI sector's boom, which led to concentrated profit-taking from earlier high-level positions. Multiple factors jointly dragged tin prices lower, with SHFE tin falling 7.08% and LME tin dropping 6.68% in June monthly. Entering July, Warsh remarked at the Sintra Forum that "inflation expectations have declined and inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks." Coupled with US June non-farm payrolls data coming in below expectations, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes cooled somewhat. Meanwhile, tech stocks staged a rebound. Multiple tailwinds drove tin prices to drift higher in early July. As of around 16:51 on July 6, LME tin rose 1.26% to $52,970/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 2.56%; SHFE tin gained 3.09% to 410,360 yuan/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 5.4%. Spot side, in June, tin prices fell over 8%; in July, spot prices rose for several consecutive sessions, but a strong wait-and-see sentiment pervaded the market. For tin spot prices: SMM 1# tin spot prices posted four consecutive gains, quoted at 406,900–415,300 yuan/mt on July 6, with an average price of 411,100 yuan/mt, up 2.96% from the prior trading day. As tin prices rebounded, wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market intensified, with only some rigid demand purchases occurring and subdued overall trading activity. Looking at the monthly trend of tin spot prices, the average price of SMM 1# tin as of June 30 was 387,800 yuan/mt. Compared with the average price of 425,000 yuan/mt on May 29, it fell by 37,200 yuan/mt over the span of just over a month, a decline of 8.75%. Notably, when tin prices approached 380,000 yuan/mt, downstream enterprise restocking demand saw a phase of release. Fundamental side ► Production: June Refined Tin Production Edges Up MoM According to data compiled by SMM based on market communication, in June 2026, China's refined tin production edged up MoM, with overall output remaining relatively steady. The slight uptick in June refined tin production was driven by two main factors: On one hand, raw material supply showed marginal improvement, as previous incremental overseas tin ore imports materialized. Although the pace of production resumptions at Myanmar mines remained slow, ore has been flowing out continuously, alleviating domestic raw material shortages to some extent. On the other hand, increased arrivals of imported ore cargoes drove smelting TCs steadily higher, offering a phased easing of the longstanding raw material tightness and creating conditions for smelters to raise operating rates and boost output. However, future production expansion faces multiple constraints: from May to July every year, Myanmar enters its traditional rainy season, which limits both open-pit mining operations and ore transport. As a result, short-term imported ore volumes are expected to pull back MoM. Overall, the refined tin supply is marginally loose at present, but downstream industries have entered the traditional consumption off-season, weakening both supply and demand sides simultaneously. In the short term, a significant output surge appears unlikely. ►Imports: Tin ore imports rose both YoY and MoM in May; imports from Myanmar surged 384.5% YoY In May, China’s tin ore imports reached 16,800 mt (equivalent to about 6,408 mt in metal content), up 7.07% MoM and 25.61% YoY, an increase of 1,221 mt in metal content from April (which was equivalent to 5,187 mt). January-May cumulative imports totaled 85,900 mt, up 71.41% YoY. In May, China’s tin ingot imports were 1,838 mt, down 34.4% MoM and 11.46% YoY; January-April cumulative imports reached 11,196 mt, up 17.75% YoY. Import and export data for the tin industry chain from 2025 to May 2026 show that the global tin market’s supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant structural adjustments, characterized by accelerating recovery of overseas mine supply, easing of domestic raw material supply pressure, increased smelting output due to lower raw material costs, and constrained exports amid weak overseas demand. In terms of raw material supply, cumulative tin ore imports in January-May 2026 reached 85,998 mt, surging 71.41% YoY, while May alone registered 16,831 mt, up 7.07% MoM and soaring 25.61% YoY. This strong rebound was mainly driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore, with tin ore imports from Myanmar hitting 6,634 mt in May, skyrocketing 384.5% YoY, and the January-May cumulative figure spiking as high as 203.49% YoY. In contrast, although tin ore imports from countries other than Myanmar still maintained a cumulative increase of 34.72%, they declined 15.23% YoY in May alone, indicating a more moderate recovery in ore supply from non-Myanmar sources. ►Inventories: SMM weekly tin ingot social inventory across three regions continued destocking for four consecutive weeks. China’s tin ingot social inventory: According to SMM data, as of July 4, 2026, the total tin ingot social inventory across three regions in China stood at 7,299 mt, a sharp WoW decline of 1,374 mt, or 15.84%, from 8,673 mt the prior week (June 26). In terms of trend, since the stage high of 13,604 mt in early June, China’s tin ingot social inventory has been destocking for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative destocking of as much as 46.4% over the past month. The destocking slope exhibited a “slow-then-steep” characteristic. The current inventory level has fallen back to the year’s low, and the market supply-demand pattern has seen notable marginal improvement. Observing by region, inventory in Shanghai dropped to 3,750 mt, a weekly decrease of 996 mt, contributing 72.5% of the total weekly destocking volume, making it the dominant driver of this destocking round and reflecting faster trade turnover in east China and a substantive rebound in downstream purchase willingness. Guangdong inventory fell in tandem to 3,449 mt, down 378 mt WoW, accounting for 27.5% of total destocking, confirming that downstream rigid demand, led by solder enterprises in south China, maintained resilience and the pace of stockpiling picked up. The underlying logic is driven, on the one hand, by restocking after price pullbacks: the previously high tin price dampened downstream purchases, but this inhibitory effect gradually subsided as prices recently returned to rational levels, unleashing pent-up rigid orders in a concentrated manner and accelerating the digestion of visible inventory. LME Tin Inventory: LME tin inventory data stood at 8,575 mt on June 30, compared with 8,850 mt on May 29, indicating a decline in LME tin inventory during June. SMM Outlook On the macro front: In July, multiple macro events in and outside China will continue to disturb tin price movements. Overseas, focus on the minutes of the June US Fed FOMC meeting, US CPI and PCE inflation data, and the month-end US Fed meeting. Earlier, Waller indicated that inflation risks have eased, while the June non-farm payrolls data missed expectations, leading to a phased cooling of market bets on rate hikes. If subsequent inflation data rebound again and the US Fed strikes a hawkish tone, a stronger US dollar will weigh on tin prices; otherwise, continued easing expectations will provide valuation support for tin prices. Domestically, the central bank has increased liquidity injections, ultra-long special government bonds are being steadily implemented, and stimulus policies related to high-end manufacturing technological transformation and equipment upgrades are gradually taking effect, which will benefit medium and long-term consumption in tin downstream sectors such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy. However, in the short term, the weak pattern of the traditional off-season in the electronics sector is unlikely to reverse quickly, and the pace at which domestic demand policy dividends are released will directly determine the strength of downstream spot restocking. Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall tightness of tin ore supply persists, though marginal supply increase signals have grown; smelters are maintaining steady production with no large-scale production cuts for now. On the demand side, the market has entered the traditional consumption off-season, with downstream solder enterprises generally cautious in procurement, relying solely on rigid-demand purchases, while high prices are significantly suppressing purchase willingness. On the inventory side, tin inventories both in and outside China remain in a destocking trend, providing inventory-side support for tin prices. In summary, changes in macro expectations combined with the performance of the tech sector will influence the amplitude of tin price fluctuations. Tight ore supply and low overall inventories form a relatively strong fundamental floor, underpinning tin prices; but weak demand during the off-season will continue to drag on futures, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Looking ahead, close attention should be paid to the US Fed's policy direction and the prosperity of the semiconductor industry chain, while continuously observing the pace of destocking in and outside China, and waiting for a substantive recovery on the demand side, which can then bring new upward momentum to tin prices. Recommended reading:

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is thrilled to announce that our flagship event 2026 SMM Germany Solar & Energy Storage Forum was successfully held at the Hotel Novotel Muenchen Messe, Munich, Germany on June 23! Focused on the front-line European PV+ESS market, the forum brought together high-ranking executives and veteran industry experts from the global new energy industry chain, serving as a professional platform for in-depth China-Europe PV+ESS industry collaboration and dialogue. Opening Remarks From PV Boom to Storage-Driven Power Markets in Europe Guest Speaker: Liao Yu, Power Operation Center General Manager, LONGi Green Energy Drawing on the real landscape of Europe's energy transition, Mr. Liao systematically addressed four major industry topics: Analyzing the market dynamics behind the surge in PV capacity and frequent negative electricity prices; Reviewing new energy storage policies in key countries such as Germany and the UK, including Germany's energy storage strategy, the UK's capacity market reform, and new grid connection queue regulations; Comparing subsidy incentives and self-consumption revenue models for commercial & industrial and residential ESS across different countries; Examining the current European regulatory framework and its profound implications for the global expansion of China's PV+ESS industry chain. He noted that the industry's logic has fundamentally shifted: PV is no longer just about module manufacturing, nor is it limited to PV + energy storage hardware sales. What we are discussing is not only about cost reduction and efficiency gains in hardware, but also about how to leverage energy storage to enhance generation asset returns, control operation and maintenance costs, and optimize enterprise-wide energy asset life cycle management. Keynote Speech: How China’s Export Tax Policy and Raw Material Volatility Affect PV and Battery Pricing? Guest Speaker: Ryan Tzy Tze Yang, PV Modules and End Use Market Analyst, SMM Ryan pointed out that, hit by the dual cost shock from the cancellation of export tax rebates and raw material price fluctuations, module export quotations rose to around $0.12/W in January. Higher costs are prompting overseas clients to prioritize high-end technology pathways, accelerating the industry’s product mix shift toward high-efficiency modules. Additionally, polysilicon and silver account for a significant share of cell manufacturing costs, and their price movements remain the core variables driving cell cost fluctuations. Global PV installations entered a period of adjustment in 2026 : constrained by grid integration bottlenecks across major regions and tightening policies in multiple countries, new PV installations worldwide are expected to temporarily decline to 435 GW in 2026. Amid this deep adjustment cycle driven by infrastructure and policy constraints, the structure of end-use applications is expected to show resilience, with utility-scale projects maintaining a stable share of approximately 56%. Panel Discussion: EU Solar Projects and China’s PV Supply Chain – Opportunities and Challenges Moderator: Cleo Zhou, Overseas Business Development Manager, SMM Panelists: Ksenia Dray, Global Solar Supply Chain Leader, Res Group Pierre-Louis Raust, Head of Design and EPC Procurement, Power Capital Renewable Energy Allen Xu, Deputy General Manager, Global Marketing, Gokin Solar Co., Ltd. Huang Gengwen, Executive Dean, Module Department, Crystalline Silicon Research Institute The guests noted that the lengthy construction cycle of Europe’s local PV industry chain, wild swings in energy and raw material costs, protracted project approval and grid connection processes, local manufacturing policies that inflate supply chain layout costs, differences in technology roadmap choices and compliance standards between European and Asian industrial systems, the lack of end-user control over upstream resource prices, coupled with capacity diversion by emerging markets, are the main obstacles hindering China-EU cooperation in advancing EU PV projects. In terms of opportunities, the China-EU PV industry is highly complementary, with China offering mature capacity, complete system solutions, cost hedging tools, localized production line support, and mass production cost reduction capabilities, while Europe provides cutting-edge innovative technologies; this division of labor can jointly achieve Europe’s PV goals. Meanwhile, new technologies, customized solutions, and hedging instruments can mitigate Europe’s challenges with costs and project implementation timelines. Keynote Speech: How Technology Choices Shape BESS Economics Guest Speaker: Michael Strobel, Business Director Europe, Great Power Three Core Dimensions of BESS Economics Safety Value: Safeguard asset security and ensure business continuity and stable operation; Investment Return: Enhance life cycle return rates and reduce the levelized cost of energy storage; O&M Management: Ensure reliable equipment operation and cut full-cycle O&M expenses. High Safety Is the Core Principle of BESS Battery Cell : Use of high-quality LFP battery cells; advanced aerogel insulation technology to block thermal propagation; certified to GB, UL, IEC, UN, MSDS, and RoHS standards. Battery Pack: Battery Pack: Aerogel insulation layers block thermal propagation between battery cells. Fuse protection circuits reduce short-circuit risks; Battery Cluster: multi-level (fuses/contactors/disconnect switches) protection; Comprehensive Protection: overcharge/overdischarge/short-circuit protection. Panel Discussion: BESS Project Development in Europe: Grid, Permits, and Reality on the Ground Moderator: Liao Yu, Power Operation Center General Manager, LONGi Green Energy Panelists: Jan Fousek, CEO, Czech Energy Storage Association Gery Bonduelle, Chief of Business Development, Verkor Antonio Montoto, Head of Storage, Greenvolt Power Joanne Xu, Overseas Business Development Manager, SMM The guests noted that, at the grid level, energy storage demand across European countries far exceeds the existing grid capacity. While the responsibilities of TSOs and DSOs are clearly defined, grid operators lack sufficient resources and face approval delays, and foreign investment access is restricted with local content requirements. Policies vary widely across countries; Germany adopts a first-come, first-served mechanism for grid connection quotas, leading to clear regional market differentiation. Moreover, the permitting and implementation stage is fraught with obstacles. Large-scale centralized grid connections bring equipment compatibility and logistics challenges, such as the transportation of large-capacity storage containers. Geopolitical shifts, policy changes, and ongoing fluctuations in raw material and electricity prices constantly erode project returns. The core Central European market is fragmented across multiple countries. As a 10- to 20-year long-term investment, simply chasing low-cost equipment is not advisable. At the same time, future additional electricity loads will further strain the existing grid capacity. In response to these pain points, the speakers also proposed practical solutions: on the one hand, establish an industry association to interface with power grid operators in a unified manner, conduct pre-review of project documentation in advance, and streamline the review process; on the other hand, coordinate multiple parties including EPC contractors, the power grid, equipment suppliers, and financial institutions. For development outside China, rely on local partners to leverage the complementary strengths of the China–Europe industrial ecosystem. Enterprises can also effectively reduce risks by completing end-to-end preparations in advance, establishing a pre-operations and maintenance system, and implementing compliance support in phases. In the long run, grid connection approvals, delays in power grid capacity expansion, and price fluctuations remain the industry’s core challenges. However, the energy storage track offers ample investment opportunities; supported by integrated system solutions, new technology iterations, and industry collaboration, deployment challenges can be gradually alleviated. Meanwhile, the speakers also expect the market to see more high-quality standalone energy storage projects with sustainable and stable operations. That's the end of our 2026 SMM Germany Solar & Energy Storage Forum. Thank you for the support of all industry peers. See you next year!

In June 2026, the phosphorus chemical industry chain underwent a profound round of repricing under extreme cost pressures. Four keywords — "Surge, Hold, Strain, Expand" — capture the full-month landscape.

The northern region serves as the core hub of China’s wire and cable industry. Building on its industrial heritage, full-chain supporting capabilities, and favorable policies under the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development initiative, it has established a complete industrial cluster that integrates raw material processing, wire and cable production, new material R&D, and intelligent equipment manufacturing. The region’s annual output value of the wire and cable sector exceeds 100 billion yuan, supported by a solid industrial foundation and broad market potential. However, compared with the established industrial clusters in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, the northern wire and cable industry still faces shortcomings such as fragmented industrial resources, weak industry-academia-research collaboration, and insufficient risk resilience across the industry chain. Breaking down collaboration barriers has thus become key to upgrading industry quality. will be held on July 23-24, 2026, at the Crowne Plaza Qingdao Jinshui, Shandong . The conference will focus on three major themes: industrial collaboration, green intelligence, and globalization. Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) , in partnership with Jiangsu Guoja Conductor Technology Co., Ltd., invites clients from across the entire industry chain to gather, explore industry opportunities, and promote quality upgrades in the northern wire and cable industry. Click to attend. We look forward to meeting you at the conference. Founded in 1999, Jiangsu Guoja Conductor Technology Co., Ltd. is an enterprise integrating the R&D, design, manufacturing, and sales of five types of flexible aluminum alloy conductors. Driven by market demand and years of product development, the company has formed a distinctive product portfolio. Its main products include flexible aluminum alloy conductors for PV power generation, flexible aluminum alloy conductors for wind turbine twist cables, flexible aluminum alloy conductors for NEV wiring harnesses, and flexible aluminum alloy conductors for aerospace applications. Aluminum Alloy PV Cable — DC Side Copper-Aluminum Transition Connection Solution The company has successively obtained IATF 16949 certification, ISO 9001 quality management system certification, ISO 14001 environmental management system certification, OHSAS 18001 occupational health and safety management system certification, TÜV certification, PCCC certification, and other product certifications, and has been awarded an AAA enterprise credit rating certificate. It also holds 6 invention patents and 42 utility model patents, successfully resolving the copper-aluminum transition issues between aluminum alloy cables on the DC side of PV power stations and PV modules, or between DC-side aluminum alloy cables and inverters, thereby ensuring safe and reliable connections. The company is equipped with over 20 sets of advanced testing equipment and employs several professional testing personnel. Its advanced detection instruments ensure that products comply with IEC international standards, GB national standards, ASTM US standards, JIS Japanese standards, and customer-specific requirements. The company currently maintains cooperation with renowned enterprises from multiple countries such as Australia, South Korea, France, and Denmark, and has deep collaboration with leading players in China’s wire and cable industry. The company always regards quality and service as the foundation of its survival. It conducts strict quality inspections from raw material intake to finished product delivery, and organizes a professional technical team to provide clients with a one-stop service covering pre-sale, in-sale, and after-sale support, earning widespread trust and acclaim from users. Contact Zhang Ting 188 6147 6777 SMM Conference Contact Zhang Guolei 166 0190 0190 zhangguolei@smm.cn

The North is the core hinterland of China's wire and cable industry. Leveraging its industrial heritage, full-chain support, and favorable Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policies, it has established a complete industrial cluster integrating raw material processing, wire and cable production, new material R&D, and smart equipment manufacturing. The regional wire and cable industry's annual output value exceeds 100 billion yuan, with a solid industrial foundation and vast market potential. Compared with the leading industrial clusters in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, the northern wire and cable industry still faces shortcomings such as scattered industrial resources, weak industry-university-research linkages, and insufficient industry chain resilience. Breaking down collaboration barriers has become key to industry upgrading. will be held on July 23-24, 2026 at Crowne Plaza Qingdao Jinshui, Shandong . The conference focuses on three major themes: industrial collaboration, green intelligence, and globalization. SMM joins hands with Hebei Danshu Aluminum Co., Ltd. to invite customers from across the entire industry chain to gather, explore industry opportunities, and boost the quality upgrading of the northern wire and cable industry. Click to attend, and we look forward to meeting you at the conference. Good Conductors, Made by Danshu Hebei Danshu Aluminum Co., Ltd. was founded in January 2024, located in the cable industry cluster area of Ningjin County, Xingtai City, Hebei Province. It is a modern enterprise specializing in the R&D, production, and sales of aluminum and aluminum alloy conductors. Its main business includes non-ferrous metal rolling, aluminum conductors, aluminum alloy conductors, and other core products, widely used in high and low voltage power cables, wires, and other fields. It provides customers with customized production and spot supply services. Relying on its regional industrial advantages and mature production system, the company adheres to quality-first and integrity-based operations. It has standardized production management, comprehensive quality inspection procedures, and import/export operation qualifications, committed to providing stable and reliable aluminum product solutions for clients in the power and cable industries. Serving and empowering customers, "Pioneering and innovating, pursuing excellence" is the constant pursuit of Hebei Danshu Aluminum Co., Ltd. We sincerely look forward to cooperating with both new and long-established customers to create a better future together! Contact Zhang Cong 193 3191 4111 SMM Conference Contact Zhang Guolei 166 0190 0190 zhangguolei@smm.cn

[Overseas Macro Bullishness Battles Supply Bearishness, China's Destocking Supports SHFE Aluminum Bottom] On the domestic front, bullish factors are prominent. The proportion of liquid aluminum has continued to rise. Over the past week, aluminum ingot warehouse withdrawals hit a four-year high, and the pace of inventory destocking has accelerated significantly, forming support for the bottom of SHFE aluminum. Amid the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, overseas, the bullish impact of the US dollar and the bearish forces from supply and geopolitics offset each other. After its earlier excessive decline, LME aluminum's downward momentum has slowed, and in the short term, it is mainly consolidating at lows for repair; domestically, supported by rapid destocking, the probability of underperforming LME aluminum is low. The SHFE and LME markets may show slight divergence, and a sustained unilateral weak trend is unlikely.