On May 22, 2026, DCE iron ore futures weakened today. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 792 yuan/mt, down 0.13% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were basically flat compared to the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering quotes; steel mill purchases were mostly driven by rigid demand; overall spot market transactions were thin. As of May 22, total inventory at main ports nationwide reached 148.09 million mt, down 670,000 mt WoW; meanwhile, daily average port pick-up volume was 3.202 million mt, edging down 42,000 mt. Overall port data indicated that iron ore rigid demand was strongly supported by fundamentals, as daily average pig iron production remained at elevated levels. In addition, steel mill profits were currently favorable, and hot metal production is still expected to edge up going forward, with iron ore rigid demand providing bottom support for ore prices. Iron ore is expected to have limited downside room next week, likely to bottom out and then move sideways.

On May 20, 2026, DCE iron ore futures saw intense trading. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 800 yuan/mt, up 0.19% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were basically flat compared to the previous day. Traders showed moderate quoting activity; steel mills restocked on demand with few inquiries; overall spot market transactions were limited. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM reached 89.53%, down 0.04 percentage points WoW. Daily average hot metal production at sample steel mills was 2.4258 million mt, down 1,000 mt WoW. Overall hot metal production remained at a high level, driving strong price support from rigid demand for iron ore. Currently, after fluctuations driven by macro news in previous days, iron ore's downward momentum has eased as rigid demand from hot metal persists. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, maintaining at a relatively high level, until new developments enter the market.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in April 2026, China's crude steel production was 83.63 million mt, down 2.8% YoY; pig iron production was 70.69 million mt, down 3.6% YoY; steel production was 122.63 million mt, down 1.7% YoY. From January to April, China's crude steel production was 331.12 million mt, down 4.1% YoY; pig iron production was 282.28 million mt, down 3.1% YoY; steel production was 471.94 million mt, down 1.3% YoY.

On May 15, 2026, iron ore futures showed a weak trend. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 809.5 yuan/mt, down 0.67% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 2-5 yuan from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering quotes; steel mills purchased as needed; overall spot transaction activity was relatively tepid. According to the latest SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide stood at 148.76 million mt, down 1.09 million mt WoW. Overall inventory saw slight destocking, with supply tightening marginally, though remaining relatively ample overall. Meanwhile, some blast furnaces were under maintenance, and daily average hot metal production pulled back slightly. Daily average port pick-up volume edged down 21,000 mt to 3.244 million mt. Although pig iron production pulled back due to individual blast furnaces entering maintenance, given the robust demand for steel outside China and relatively comfortable profit margins at steel mills, iron ore fundamentals remained well-supported. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term until new developments enter the market. [SMM Steel]

According to the latest statistics from the GACC, total iron ore imports in April 2026 amounted to 103.854 million tonnes, representing a decrease of 889,000 tonnes from the previous month, a month-on-month decline of 0.8%. From January to April, cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates reached 418.587 million tonnes, marking an 8.0% increase year-on-year. In April, steel mills generally exhibited subdued purchasing activity due to the limited cost-effectiveness of imported iron ore. Concurrently, rising premiums and shipping costs further compressed import margins, diminishing the purchasing intentions of some importers. Nonetheless, strong downstream demand resulted in high utilisation rates of blast furnaces within steel mills, sustaining elevated levels of pig iron production and maintaining robust iron ore demand. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to adjustments in some iron ore shipping routes originally designated for export to that region, with China increasingly serving as a transit and receiving hub, which contributed to an overall increase in China's iron ore imports. Consequently, despite a slight decrease in April, import levels remained broadly stable under the influence of various factors. Looking ahead to May, the gradual recovery of port facilities in major importing countries from weather-related disruptions is expected to facilitate a significant increase in shipments from key iron ore-producing nations. Meanwhile, steel mills are anticipated to sustain high operating rates driven by profit margins, indicating that demand for iron ore imports is likely to remain strong. Furthermore, overseas mines that commenced production earlier are still in the ramp-up phase, which will support continued shipment growth. The Simandou iron ore mine is projected to reach its first shipping peak in May, with the majority of shipments destined for China. However, the Labour Day holiday in May, which reduces working days and could impact customs clearance efficiency and data collection, may result in a marginal increase in China's iron ore imports compared to April.

Ukrainian mining and steel group Metinvest reported its Q1 2026 operational results, showing pig iron production rose 18% year-on-year to 476,000 metric tons (mt). However, crude steel production saw a marginal decline of 1% to 494,000 mt. Notably, iron ore concentrate production surged by 91% year-on-year to 4.86 million mt as the company maximized utilization of its mining assets for export. The disparity between rising pig iron and stagnant steel output reflects a strategic focus on exporting semi-finished products and raw materials to the EU market. This increased availability of Ukrainian iron ore and merchant pig iron provides a crucial supply buffer for European electric arc furnace operators amidst global scrap shortages.