04 July 2026, 10:49 UTC JPMorgan turned cautious on gold and cut its Q4 2026 forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500. The revised target drops from around $6,000, with gold seen averaging $4,300 in Q3 2026. JPMorgan kept its long-term bullish view, citing central bank buying and strong physical demand. JPMorgan just turned cautious on gold in the short term. The bank cut its Q4 2026 forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500 per ounce, down from around $6,000. The recalibration follows weaker demand from key buying sectors. This move signals fresh caution ahead, even as JPMorgan keeps its longer-term bullish thesis fully intact. JPMorgan Slashed Its Gold Forecast 25% A price forecast is an analyst’s projection of where an asset may trade over a defined future period. JPMorgan now projects an average gold price of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter. Furthermore, it sees the metal rising to $4,500 in Q4. The cut is significant in scale. The bank previously targeted roughly $6,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter. As a result, the new $4,500 target represents a roughly 25% reduction from prior expectations for the same period. The recalibration stems from softer demand. Purchasing power has weakened among gold’s major demand centers. Moreover, the metal has become more sensitive to shifts in real interest rates, capping the near-term price ceiling. The bank described the situation as “range-bound”. As a result, traders should expect sideways price action before any second-half recovery takes hold. Other institutions remain more bullish. Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification. Furthermore, UBS targets $5,200 over the next 12 months as markets reassess Fed policy and dollar pressure intensifies. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley also eyes $5,200 in H2 2026, but warns that gold needs stronger ETF inflows first. The precious metal is currently trading at $4,175, up 1.26% over the last 24 hours. However, it is now down 26% from its all-time high near $5,600 reached in January 2026, according to TradingView data. Why JPMorgan’s Long-Term Bullish View Holds Despite the cut, JPMorgan’s medium- to long-term view remains firmly positive. The bank pointed to two structural forces that could drive gold prices through 2027. Each factor supports demand well beyond the current short-term consolidation phase across global markets. First, central banks worldwide continue accumulating gold reserves at an increased pace. Furthermore, physical demand for the precious metal is expected to keep strengthening over the coming months. Both trends provide a durable floor under prices across the entire outlook. Second, institutional investors continue to allocate tangible portions of their portfolios to gold for hedging purposes. Moreover, that pattern shows no sign of reversing. As a result, JPMorgan expects gold to retain its role as both a safe-haven asset and an alternative reserve currency. The JPMorgan forecast also carries implications for crypto markets. Gold and Bitcoin have traded as competing macro hedges throughout 2025 and into 2026. As a result, a “range-bound” gold price could potentially shift some institutional capital toward the crypto market in the short term. However, the bank’s long-term bullish stance means gold will not lose its importance as a store of value any time soon. The near-term caution simply reflects a temporary pause rather than a structural break in the broader multi-year uptrend. Source： https://beincrypto.com/jpmorgan-changes-gold-price-outlook-q4-2026/

July 2, 2026 Following the extreme price drop from $5,500 to below $4,000 per ounce, the gold market is currently struggling to find direction. The key question now is: Will the second half of 2026 cement a sideways trend, or will new factors spark the next rally? The latest outlook from the World Gold Council (WGC) provides answers to these questions. Currently, the precious metal is stabilizing amid moderate growth, persistent inflation, and easing concerns about interest rates. The WGC sees the fair value for the coming months at around $4,100, but expects a fluctuation range of five percent. However, a massive upward breakout remains a realistic scenario: economic downturns, geopolitical escalations, or falling interest rate expectations could quickly drive the price back above $4,500, the WGC said. On the downside, the market is well-protected, as experience shows that pullbacks of more than 10 percent quickly attract countercyclical buyers. The extreme price volatility in the first half of the year, triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict, would gradually subside, the WGC continued, and return to historical averages. The regional dynamics are particularly interesting: While sharp sell-offs have recently occurred primarily during U.S. trading hours, Asian investors have regularly driven strong recoveries. This underscores Asia’s growing market influence on global price formation. Gold: Asia’s Market Influence Grows According to WGC experts, two heavyweights will significantly dictate price trends for the rest of the year: central banks and the Indian market. Despite isolated portfolio shifts in the first quarter, WGC data for 2026 signal sustained buying interest from the official sector. Every additional purchase above the long-term average not only strengthens physical demand but also sends a strong buying signal to institutional investors. The situation in India is the opposite. To conserve foreign exchange reserves in the face of high energy prices, the Indian government has drastically raised gold import duties from 6 to 15 percent and has actively worked to curb purchases. Although this fundamental shift for the world’s second-largest gold market has, according to the WGC, already been largely priced in at current levels, a further economic slowdown in India could place additional pressure on physical demand there as well as on the market for gold-backed loans. In summary, gold remains caught between these forces. Without new macroeconomic catalysts, stabilization at current levels is the most likely scenario. However, should new signs of crisis emerge, the fundamental upside potential is immense, while the downside risk is effectively limited by the reliable network of central banks and long-term investors. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-forecast-wgc-sees-potential-for-a-breakout-above-usd4-500

SMM July 4 news: Metal market: Last Friday night, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead added 0.38%, SHFE zinc increased 0.87%, and SHFE tin jumped 3.8%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Last Friday night, ferrous metals mostly closed higher. Stainless steel dropped 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar gained 0.39%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Last Friday night, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.54%, LME aluminum added 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%, LME zinc climbed 2.17%, LME tin surged 4.99%, and LME nickel rose 0.4%. Last Friday night, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.49%, posting a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver gained 2.87%, closing the week higher with a 5.26% increase. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, ending the week up 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.61%, posting a weekly rise of 8.82%. JPMorgan said that in the short term, gold prices may be capped by weakening demand and are likely to remain moving sideways overall. The main reasons are weaker purchasing power in key demand areas and renewed sensitivity of gold to changes in real interest rates, which may limit further price gains. However, the bank maintains a medium- to long-term bullish outlook. It expects gold to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price of around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan believes the rally may continue, driven mainly by continued central bank buying, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will support gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 a.m. on July 4, last Friday night's closing quotations: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and deepening reforms and expanding opening up] On July 1, Premier Li Qiang, also secretary of the CPC Leadership Group of the State Council, presided over a meeting of the group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [PBOC: To conduct 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on July 6, with 3-month tenor] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed-quantity, interest rate tender with multiple-price winning bids, with a tenor of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (adjusted for holidays if it falls on a holiday). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.91. On the weekly chart: The dollar index fell on a weekly basis, down 0.44% for the week, its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. The decline occurred as US June employment data cooled noticeably, leading the market to lower expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, and the dollar index fell this week. Against a weaker dollar backdrop, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% for the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% for the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY once pulling back to around 161, though still at elevated levels. Japan continued to release signals of forex intervention, with finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring markets and remain prepared to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's movement has clearly been influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations, and if subsequent economic data continue to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure. However, whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japan's policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he considers Fed Chairman Warsh to be on the dovish side within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A day earlier, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks; a week earlier, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hoped the Fed would remain "open-minded" on inflation and expects the Fed to ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabel Mateos y Lago said: "If July's nonfarm payrolls are very strong, close to or exceeding 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike remains valid." Ahead of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets expected a roughly 20% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 rate decision, down from 33% before the release of the payrolls report. Markets still expect the US Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until December at the earliest. For the ECB, Lagarde said, "The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. But it is worth noting that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra meeting did not rule out skipping this additional hike." She warned that the normalization of energy supply could take six months or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she also believes that consumer prices outside energy-affected areas will not face pressure. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said, "The US non-farm payrolls data was actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is where the real divergence between Europe and the US lies." Subran believes that after last month's hike, the ECB will not act again. "That was an insurance hike, but judging from the current data, it seems that moment has passed," he said. "The trauma effect of the war (with Iran) takes time to manifest. The economy is still bearing the costs of war, but the situation is much better than a few weeks ago."(Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone, the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike. Mullan said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials have made clear that "we will not enter a new rate-hiking cycle." Mullan said, "For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level." Mullan added, "Falling oil prices will ease inflation pressure in the services sector," and "we have not yet seen second-round effects."(Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of Switzerland June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone May PPI m/m, Eurozone May retail sales m/m, US June S&P Global Services PMI Final, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France May trade balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 20, US May trade balance, China June foreign exchange reserves, Japan May trade balance, New Zealand interest rate decision for July 8, US May wholesale sales m/m, China June CPI y/y, China June PPI y/y, Germany May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, US June existing home sales annualized, Germany June CPI m/m final, France June CPI m/m final, Switzerland June consumer confidence index, Canada June employment change, China June M2 money supply y/y, and other data. Additionally, events to watch this week include: a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repo maturing today; speeches from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank Seim; Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremman holds a monetary policy press conference; the Fed releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the ECB releases minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech. Crude Oil: In overnight trading last Friday, both oil futures edged up slightly, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On the weekly chart: WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive week, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also declined for a fourth straight week, down 0.91% for the week. The crude oil market is relatively stable, with Brent stabilizing near $72 per barrel as the market weighs the supply outlook around the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street News) Data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show: In the week ending June 30, Brent crude futures speculators cut their net long positions by 34,704 contracts to 55,634 contracts. Gasoil futures speculators cut their net long positions by 2,664 contracts to 57,852 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Data show that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from May, exceeding 10 million bpd, but still 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in oil markets, enabling millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf region to enter international markets, allowing producers to raise output and push oil prices down to pre-war levels. Kpler data show that combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd. Vortexa, another cargo analytics firm, estimated June shipments at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May, but still well below the 16.5 million bpd recorded a year earlier. According to data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, the UAE’s crude exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May’s level. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, three sources said that Venezuela’s largest refinery, the 645,000-bpd Amuay refinery, has resumed operations after a power outage on Friday and is currently processing about 140,000 bpd of crude, with the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

Published：June 30, 2026 Paper Market Volatility vs. Sound Fundamentals Gold and silver prices have recently fallen significantly, but for star investor Eric Sprott, the long-term outlook remains sound. In an interview with Sprott Money, he explained that the recent price declines were primarily due to high volatility in the futures markets and were not a sign of weakening fundamentals. Comparisons with the sharp, historic declines of 1980 and 2008 show that precious metals have always recovered once economic realities have pushed the paper market back into the background. At the end of January, the example of the silver price demonstrated just how strongly the futures market —with its massive short positions held by major commercial banks and sudden margin calls—can distort short-term price movements. Macroeconomic Environment and Demand from Asia Provide Support The mining billionaire is instead focusing on the overall macroeconomic picture. In light of skyrocketing government deficits, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and central banks caught between fighting inflation and promoting growth, Sprott anticipates a long-term loss of purchasing power for Western currencies. This loss of confidence in the fiat system makes physical gold indispensable as a hard asset. Physical demand from Asia provides an additional boost: While China imports large quantities and keeps its own production within the country, India remains a dominant buyer, according to Sprott, despite regulatory interventions. This is accompanied by central banks increasingly diversifying their reserves into precious metals. Silver: Supply Shortage Meets Technology Boom Silver plays a special role for Eric Sprott, as its rapidly growing industrial significance complements its monetary function. Megatrends such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and the expansion of data centers will drive sustained growth in demand, he explained. Since a large portion of this industrially used silver is permanently consumed and not recycled, the structural supply deficit of recent years continues to worsen. According to Sprott, this leads to a clear conclusion for investors: While futures positions may cause short-term market volatility, the long-term upward trend in gold and silver is sustainably underpinned by the global debt burden, Asian buyers, and massive industrial silver consumption. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-and-silver-forecast-why-star-investor-eric-sprott-calls-the-price-drop-short-term-noise

June 21, 2026 As of June 19, 2026, by Florian Grummes While the start of spring on March 23 initially sparked a broad recovery in the price of silver and even led to a surprising peak of $89.36, silver prices have come under significant pressure again since May 13. It wasn’t until a sell-off low of $61.50 that a strong—though so far short-lived—rally to $71.55 began last week. Since Wednesday evening, however, precious metal prices have once again come under heavy selling pressure. The trigger was the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which caused a sharp pullback in precious metal prices. The open price gap at $68.35 was quickly closed, after which the silver price fell further to $63.28. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the previous recovery has already been lost. Since the beginning of the year, silver has also posted a decline of about 10%. Compared to the price of gold, however, silver has proven somewhat more stable and has so far managed to narrowly hold above its March low of around $61. Interest Rate Shock Following Leadership Change at the Fed The already challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is now facing additional headwinds from monetary policy. At its June 17, 2026, meeting, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, left key interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, but at the same time signaled that, from the central bank’s perspective, inflation remains significantly too high. This has brought the possibility of a more restrictive monetary policy more sharply into the markets’ focus, as several Fed policymakers consider an interest rate hike possible this year. For precious metals, this is a rather negative signal, as a great many market participants remain heavily focused on U.S. monetary policy. Higher yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and a stronger dollar increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset like silver, thereby limiting its upside potential. Price Declines Following a Change in Leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve © Barclays, Bloomberg Statistically speaking, a change in leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve is often followed by significant price declines in the stock and financial markets during the first three months, as market participants must first reassess the monetary policy stance and reaction patterns. At the same time, decision-making processes and communication practices take time to establish themselves, which can lead to increased volatility and cautious positioning in the markets in the short term. Of particular importance this time is the shift in communication at the top of the central bank. Under the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, the previous practice of providing advance notice regarding the future path of interest rates has largely been discontinued, which could further increase uncertainty in the markets. Warsh intends to place a strong emphasis on combating inflation, a move that many market participants immediately interpreted as a signal of tighter monetary policy. Restrictive Monetary Policy Weighs on the Markets Instead of the previously hoped-for interest rate cuts, there are now increasing signs of possible rate hikes, which makes stocks less attractive, as higher interest rates increase financing costs and cause future earnings to be discounted more heavily. This uncertainty led to a significant decline in the S&P 500, with other indices also posting losses. In addition, Warsh’s first press conference reinforced the impression of a shift in policy within the Fed, causing investors to become more cautious for the time being and potentially withdraw capital from riskier investments. This underscores how sensitively the markets react to changes in monetary policy and how those changes are communicated. Real Economy and Industry Are Weakening In addition to monetary policy, the real economy is also sending mixed signals. Weak data from the freight and trucking sectors suggest that industrial activity is losing momentum, which is particularly relevant for silver given its heavy industrial use. Unlike gold, silver is not only a monetary store of value but also an industrial metal. When the economy loses momentum, this can dampen physical demand and temporarily slow upward price movements. Gold and Central Banks as a Strategic Tailwind 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey © World Gold Council T he same, gold remains the most important benchmark for the price of silver. While gold was able to recover quickly to over $4,380 following the recent correction—only to then plummet to $4,121—strategic demand from central banks remains a strong tailwind for the entire precious metals sector. The Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 shows that, over the past four years, central banks worldwide have accumulated an average of 1,000 metric tons of gold per year—significantly more than in the previous decade. Furthermore, 89 percent of the central banks surveyed expect global gold reserves to rise over the next twelve months, while 74 percent anticipate a decline in the dollar’s share of global reserves. This trend does not apply identically to silver, but it provides strong indirect support. When real assets, diversification, and geopolitical hedging gain importance, silver typically benefits as a downstream, more volatile companion to the gold market. Silver in U.S. Dollars – Early Summer Volatility Silver in U.S. dollars, daily chart as of June 19, 2026. © Gold.de From a technical perspective, the silver price has been moving largely sideways since the first sell-off in early February. However, the series of lower highs underscores the clearly corrective nature of the movement. In the range between approximately $61 and $64, the bulls have so far consistently repelled the bears’ attacks and repeatedly initiated bullish counter-moves. Most recently, silver rebounded last week from $61.50 to Monday’s high of $71.55. This recovery, however, proved short-lived, and silver prices fell back to today’s low of $63.28. As a result, silver is now trading below both its slightly declining 50-day moving average ($79.01) and its still-rising 200-day moving average ($68.24). The 200-day moving average, in particular, should actually stabilize the current sell-off and allow for at least a broader consolidation around the $68 level in the coming weeks. While the weekly stochastic has now reached oversold territory, the momentum oscillator on the daily chart is already pointing downward again. Overall, this paints a picture that can, at best, be interpreted as an early-summer shakeout. In other words, before the summer rally begins, precious metal prices are slowly forming a solid foundation amid erratic and rather weak price action. Once that foundation is laid, a significant recovery should follow in response to the correction that has lasted about four and a half months. In the process, the silver price should then be able to reclaim its 50-day moving average. However, should the stock markets come under pressure and hopes for a de-escalation and continued peace negotiations in the Middle East prove to be illusory, the outlook could darken significantly this summer. In this case, price action on the silver market could also be interpreted as a descending triangle. A break below the $60 to $61 level would confirm this scenario and trigger price targets well below $50. Conclusion: Silver—A Summer Rally Despite an Interest Rate Shock? Silver is currently at a macroeconomic and technical tipping point. In the short term, headwinds dominate: tighter monetary policy, rising real interest rates, and an economic slowdown all argue against a rapid and dynamic upward move. At the same time, the Fed’s policy shift is causing increased uncertainty—a factor that typically draws liquidity away from more cyclical assets like silver. However, two stabilizing forces counter this: a correction that has already been underway for about four and a half months, and increasingly oversold market conditions. Combined with structurally strong demand for gold, this creates an environment that suggests a bottoming-out phase rather than an immediate trend reversal. The support zone around $60 to $61 is therefore crucial. If this support holds, the current period of weakness is likely to turn out to be a classic early-summer bottoming process, from which a recovery toward the 50-day moving average and beyond should become possible as early as midsummer. However, if silver falls sustainably below $60, this would confirm the formation of a descending triangle. In this scenario, the correction would transition into a new downtrend—with price targets well below $50. The coming weeks are therefore likely to be shaped less by trend strength than by decision-making—with an uncomfortably high degree of dependence on geopolitical maneuvers, monetary policy communication, and macroeconomic surprises. Author: Florian Grummes Precious Metals Expert and Technical Analyst www.goldnewsletter.de Source: GOLD.DE

(Kitco News) – Even when real yields decline and the dollar weakens, gold prices could struggle to catch a bid as strong equity markets will continue to draw investors to risk assets, according to commodity analysts at Société Générale. The French banking giant cautioned that gold investors may be in for an extended period of muted ETF flows combined with a pause in central bank purchases. “The market is finely balanced, and the path of monetary policy remains the key variable for gold through its impact on real rates and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset,” they wrote. “Our analyst’s central scenario is driven by persistent inflation, oil-driven price shocks and a clear ‘higher for-longer’ rates regime.” SocGen analysts expect the world’s major central banks will remain cautious, with “the Fed on hold, the ECB still leaning hawkish, and the BoJ gradually tightening.” Going forward, the analysts see two potential macroeconomic paths. The first is “an AI-led, inflationary growth cycle keeping policy tight,” while the second involves “an energy-driven stagflation shock, particularly in the event of prolonged supply disruptions.” “Our analysts expect inflation across the US and Europe to stay elevated into early 2027 before moderating, providing only temporary support to gold’s hedge appeal,” they warned. “Crucially, they view policy stability rather than easing as the baseline, limiting upside for gold in the near term.” SocGen said they do expect some support to emerge later “as real yields gradually decline and the USD initially softens,” but they warned that even then, gold’s upside will be limited by “resilient global growth, strong equity markets and a continued investor preference for risk assets.” “On the demand side, subdued ETF inflows and constrained central bank activity limit the strength of financial demand, though a recovery is anticipated into 2027,” they added. “Physical demand, particularly jewellery, shows resilience in value terms and could provide marginal support as prices consolidate.” Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-17/persistent-inflation-oil-driven-price-shocks-and-higher-longer-rates-will