[SMM Lithium Battery Anode Raw Material Market Weekly Review: Short-Term Difficulty in Altering the More-Likely-to-Rise-Than-Fall Pattern of Anode Raw Material Coke Prices] August 6: This week, overall anode raw material coke prices in China continued their upward trend, with slight differentiation in the price increases among various categories.

Silica: This week, silica market offers remained stable. Demand side, profit pressure persists in the silicon metal industry, and some silicon metal enterprises implemented production cuts this week, causing the overall operating rate to pull back. Downstream silicon plants, raw material procurement expectations further contracted, with plants following just-in-time procurement for orders and cost control intensity staying high. Overall, the production cuts downstream have not yet been transmitted to silica prices, and the short-term silica market is expected to remain mainly stable. Silicon Coal: Silicon Coal: This week, the silicon coal market saw divergent regional trends, with caking coal prices in Xinjiang reduced by 100 yuan/mt to around 1,250 yuan/mt, while silicon coal offers in other regions remained stable. Demand side, from July to early August, operating rates at silicon metal enterprises in Xinjiang, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan pulled back, weakening downstream just-in-time procurement of silicon coal; the procurement growth brought by production resumptions during the rainy season in south-west China earlier weakened, leaving overall demand stimulation sluggish. Overall, the decline in downstream production further suppressed the silicon coal market, and the short-term silicon coal market remained in the doldrums. Petroleum Coke: This week, the domestic petroleum coke market saw good trading performance, with segment trends diverging and overall prices holding up well. Port spot prices of Formosa Plastics petroleum coke continued to climb, currently at around 1,550-1,600 yuan/mt. According to SMM monitoring, as of this Thursday, the price index for 1# petroleum coke in north-east China was at 4,551.51 yuan/mt, up 3.07% from last Thursday. The price index for 4# petroleum coke in Shandong was at 2,088.15 yuan/mt, down 0.23% from last Thursday. Recently, domestic refinery operating rates rose, increasing market supply, but procurement enthusiasm from the demand side was moderate, coupled with restocking and stockpiling by downstream enterprises at the start of the month providing support, high- and low-sulfur varieties saw continued divergence in trends, and short-term petroleum coke prices are expected to mainly consolidate at highs. Electrodes: Recently, carbon electrode prices edged up, with ordinary power carbon electrodes (diameter 1,272 mm) at 7,200-7,400 yuan/mt and ordinary power carbon electrodes (diameter 960-1,100 mm) at 6,300-6,600 yuan/mt, up around 200 yuan/mt from the previous period. This was mainly due to higher petroleum coke prices on the raw material side pushing up electrode production costs, with some producers moderately increasing their offers. Downstream silicon plants mainly made just-in-time procurement, and coupled with expectations of a weaker operating rate at silicon enterprises, the electrode price adjustment was mainly driven by the cost side, with the demand side remaining under pressure. Subsequent electrode prices are expected to shift to mainly remaining flat.

Recently, Qingdao Haida Ruiyuan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. announced its plan to construct a lithium battery anode material expansion project utilizing existing completed factory facilities. The project is located east of Liugezhuang Village, Tianzhuang Town, Pingdu City, Qingdao, Shandong, with a total investment of 117 million yuan. The site covers a total area of 14,777.5 square meters, with a building area of 14,777.5 square meters. Main production equipment includes mechanical mills, roller mills, reactors, and tunnel kilns. The project primarily uses petroleum coke (needle coke), calcined petroleum coke, and asphalt as raw materials, which undergo pelletizing, roasting, and other processes to produce lithium battery anode materials. The production capacity is 80,000 tons per year.

SMM, July 30 – Raw material side, China’s petroleum coke market saw broadly improved trading this week. Low-sulphur coke remained firm and strengthened further, mainstream medium- and high-sulphur coke moved up broadly, and prices across all specifications edged higher. On the refinery side, major refineries held stable to firmer, supporting the market. CNOOC refineries’ petroleum coke auction transaction prices climbed continuously, with gains concentrated at 50-150 yuan/mt, and the more active auctions boosted bullish sentiment. PetroChina’s low-sulphur coke in-factory inventory in north-east China stayed low, and concentrated release of downstream rigid demand kept prices steady this week. Sinopec refineries saw recently improved downstream purchasing appetite, especially along the Yangtze River where ample anode material energy storage orders supported smooth refinery shipments, providing some floor to coke prices; prices were raised slightly by 10-30 yuan/mt. Independent refineries’ overall shipments performed well, earlier downstream resistance to high medium- and high-sulphur coke prices eased somewhat, restocking purchases increased, and petroleum coke prices strengthened in tandem. SMM’s latest data showed the No. 1 petroleum coke spot price index in north-east China registered 4,415.73 yuan/mt, flat WoW; Shandong’s No. 2 petroleum coke spot price index registered 4,276.73 yuan/mt, up 0.93% WoW; Shandong’s No. 3 petroleum coke spot price index registered 3,738.11 yuan/mt, up 1.12% WoW; and Shandong’s No. 4 petroleum coke spot price index registered 2,093.05 yuan/mt, up 4.46% WoW. During the week, China’s overall refinery operating load remained steady and supply growth in the market was limited; downstream end-user purchasing and stockpiling sentiment was moderate. Combined with strong support from rising crude oil costs driven by international geopolitical disruptions, and amid multiple bullish factors, the domestic petroleum coke market is expected to consolidate on a strong note in the near term, with low-sulphur coke showing stronger price resilience and structural divergence among grades persisting. The coal tar pitch market improved somewhat this week. As of Thursday this week, the average price of coal tar pitch was 4,713 yuan/mt, up 0.18% from last Thursday. Overall, prebaked anode cost support remained relatively firm this week. Supply side, prebaked anode enterprises continued their production pace of producing based on sales. New anode projects in Xinjiang, Guangxi and other regions came onstream successively, with new capacity continuing to be released. Meanwhile, some enterprises saw operating rates pull back slightly due to maintenance, but overall the industry’s supply capability improved steadily and supply flexibility increased further. Demand side, China’s operating aluminum capacity stayed high, providing steady rigid support for prebaked anode consumption. On the export side, new aluminum projects in Indonesia continued to come online, driving sustained improvement in China’s anode exports. Overall, China’s new prebaked anode supply kept materializing, high aluminum operating rates effectively supported domestic demand, and the export market improved marginally. The industry’s supply-demand balance remained generally stable, but as new capacity continued to be released, supply growth slightly outpaced demand growth, intensifying market competition. Commentary: This week, prebaked anode raw material side improved in tandem; petroleum coke market fundamentals provided solid support, coal tar pitch prices recovered slightly, and the industry’s overall production cost edged up. According to SMM data monitoring, as of July 30, China’s prebaked anode production cost stood at 5,597.13 yuan/mt, up 0.73% from last Thursday. Looking ahead, on the cost side, petroleum coke still has strong bottom support and the coal tar pitch market is expected to improve somewhat; overall raw material support for anode costs remains fairly favourable. On the supply-demand front, aluminum enterprises’ high operating rates continued to underpin domestic anode demand, while a marginal recovery in export orders brought incremental growth. However, the concentrated addition of new capacity and continuous supply release have further intensified market competition. As contract rollover approaches, overall raw material market support has eased slightly within the cycle, and prebaked anode prices are expected to decline next month; updates on specific adjustments will follow closely.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] This week, the overall trading in China's petroleum coke market improved. Low-sulphur petroleum coke remained firm and strong, while mainstream medium- and high-sulphur petroleum coke prices generally rose. Petroleum coke prices across all specifications edged higher. The latest SMM data shows that the north-east China No.1 petroleum coke spot price index was 4,415.73 yuan/mt, flat WoW; the Shandong No.2 petroleum coke spot price index was 4,276.73 yuan/mt, up 0.93% WoW; the Shandong No.3 petroleum coke spot price index was 3,738.11 yuan/mt, up 1.12% WoW; and the Shandong No.4 petroleum coke spot price index was 2,093.05 yuan/mt, up 4.46% WoW.

Silica: This week, silica prices remained stable overall. Supply side, affected by weather and other seasonal factors in some producing areas, the mining pace at mines slowed, leading to a temporary reduction in ore supply, which lent support to local markets. However, overall silica ore reserves were ample and cross-regional flows relatively sufficient, so the overall supply landscape remained loose. Demand side, the silicon metal market continued to consolidate at lows, with industry profits under pressure. Downstream silicon plants maintained only monthly just-in-time procurement orders for raw materials and strictly controlled procurement costs. In the short term, silica prices are expected to remain steady. Silicon coal: This week, the silicon coal market saw regional divergence, with the price in Shaanxi slightly lowered by 15 yuan/mt to 820-850 yuan/mt, while quotes in other regions remained stable for now. Demand side, production resumptions during the rainy season in south-west China boosted downstream silicon plants' operating rates, leading to a marginal rebound in just-in-time procurement volumes of silicon coal. However, support was limited, so the demand boost remained weak. Supply side, coal processing plants whose main product is coking coal continued to produce silicon coal according to orders, with no inventory pressure, while those mainly exporting silicon coal faced slow shipments and significant inventory pressure amid weak overall demand, resulting in a supply-demand mismatch pattern for the industry. Cost side, upstream coking coal prices have recently shown signs of softening, which will weaken cost support; thus, the silicon coal market is expected to be in the doldrums in the short term. Petroleum coke: This week, trading in China's petroleum coke market was active, with prices of petroleum coke across specifications all rising. Port spot transactions of Formosa Plastics petroleum coke diverged, with mainstream prices still at 1,450-1,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, as of this Thursday, the Shandong 4# petroleum coke price index was reported at 2,093.05 yuan/mt, up 4.46% WoW. Recently, domestic refinery operations have been stable, procurement enthusiasm on the demand side remained moderate, and coupled with external geopolitical disruptions, petroleum coke prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the short term. Electrode: This week, electrodes used in silicon production remained at low prices. Supply side showed structural divergence: major producers, with captive downstream silicon plants, mainly supplied for self-use, so their inventory and shipment pressure were relatively manageable. In contrast, small and medium-sized electrode producers faced intense competition, and with the overall sluggish silicon metal market, downstream small and medium silicon plants operated at low loads, had limited orders, slow shipments, and in-factory inventory pressure. Demand side, although silicon metal production increased MoM in July, electrodes account for a relatively small proportion of smelting unit consumption, with rigid and inelastic demand; thus, downstream procurement mainly met rigid demand to maintain normal production, with limited actual growth, making it difficult to effectively boost the market. Under the dual influence of supply and demand, prices of electrode used in silicon production will remain consolidating at lows. If you would like more detailed market information and dynamics, or have other information needs, please call 021-20707889.