[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 20 – April 24), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 524.15 yuan/gram and closed at 498.3 yuan/gram, down 28.2 yuan/gram or 5.36% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 532.35 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 494.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 383.95 yuan/gram and closed at 359.65 yuan/gram, down 25.1 yuan/gram or 6.52% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 390 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 356.8 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 14,536 lots with a total turnover of 7.509 billion yuan and open interest of 15,520 lots, an increase of 98 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 9,748 lots with a total turnover of 3.647 billion yuan and open interest of 7,843 lots, an increase of 428 lots WoW. [Key News] US-Iran conflict: geopolitical concerns resurfaced as the second round of US-Iran negotiations remained unresolved. Trump stated he had ordered the sinking of any vessel laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, announced a three-week extension of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, invited Lebanese and Israeli leaders to visit the US, and warned Iran that the US would resort to military means if Iran refused to negotiate. Iran stated the focus of negotiations had shifted from nuclear issues to a comprehensive ceasefire. US Fed monetary policy: Warsh expressed his policy stance favoring interest rate cuts at a Senate Banking Committee hearing and advocated a return of monetary policy to its fundamentals. This shift implies that the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction. Trade and tariffs: after the reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs via Sections 122, 232, and 301. The final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end may raise tariffs, leading to NYMEX palladium inventory buildup. South Africa's president accepted US credentials, marking a key step in rebuilding South Africa-US relations. If high tariffs on Russian palladium are officially implemented at month-end, the US may leverage the South African market to buffer the gap caused by the sharp decline in Russian palladium supply. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that, effective from the trading session on April 27, the trading commission and intraday close-today commission for the platinum and palladium June contracts would be reduced from 0.025% to 0.01%. Events to watch: continue to focus on geopolitical developments in the Middle East and speeches by US Fed officials. Monitor the trial results of palladium in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end. Precious metals benefited from US midterm election dynamics. Strategically, maintain a bullish stance on platinum and palladium, with pullbacks as opportunities to go long. Watch for regional palladium premiums in the US market. In the short to medium term, the Middle East situation and the Russian palladium tariff ruling are key variables. Risk-wise, be alert to fluctuations in the Middle East situation and delayed expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts.

On February 26, local time in the US, the third round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran took place in Geneva, Switzerland, mediated by Oman. The talks went through two stages with a break of several hours in between, and a new round of negotiations is expected to take place next week. On February 27, Beijing time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised Chinese citizens in Iran to evacuate as soon as possible. The external security risks facing Iran have significantly increased, with multiple countries issuing advisories for their citizens to leave. Given the current security situation in Iran, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy and Consulates in Iran reminded Chinese citizens not to travel to Iran and advised those already there to strengthen safety precautions and evacuate as soon as possible. The Chinese Embassies and Consulates in Iran and its neighboring countries will provide necessary assistance for the evacuation of Chinese citizens via commercial flights or land routes. On February 27, platinum and palladium showed a significant rise, with platinum's weekly gain reaching 19.29%, making it a standout in the precious metals futures sector. Market uncertainties brought about by US tariffs and geopolitical risks continue to support the performance of precious metals. Fundamentals side, tight supply provided fundamental support for platinum. Coupled with many market participants' bullish outlook, some suppliers held prices firm, providing sentiment support for the rise in platinum and palladium. As of around 3:58 PM on February 27, the main platinum contract rose 5.34% to 623.75 yuan/gram, with a weekly gain of 19.29%; the main palladium contract rose 2.77% to 464.85 yuan/gram, with a weekly gain of 10.86%. The A-share market responded in kind, with the precious metals sector closing up 3.55% on February 27. On February 27, spot platinum was quoted at 606~610 yuan/gram, with an average price of 608 yuan/gram, up 3.67% from the previous trading day. The post-holiday rise in platinum, besides being supported by macro factors and safe-haven demand, also benefited from tight supply, positive market expectations, and some suppliers holding prices firm. Due to some suppliers' optimistic outlook, they were unwilling to sell at low prices, making it difficult to find low-priced goods in the market. However, the supply-demand relationship has not changed significantly since before the holiday. The post-holiday rise was more driven by optimistic sentiment, with downstream players adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that platinum prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Future developments will need to focus on changes in the demand side. Throughout February 2026, platinum and palladium prices experienced a roller-coaster ride amid macroeconomic shocks and geopolitical risks. For the whole month, macro sentiment dominated the pace of fluctuations, with supply-side events reinforcing support, and the structural feature of "strong platinum, weak palladium" continued. At present, geopolitical and macro situations strongly support precious metals: the tense Middle East situation directly boosted safe-haven demand; the downward revision of US GDP coupled with stubborn inflation highlighted gold's value preservation function; the legal battle over tariff policies weakened the US dollar's credibility, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, along with global central banks' gold buying spree, collectively provided a solid bottom for precious metal prices. Fundamentals side, the expansion elasticity of platinum and palladium supply is relatively weak. Since platinum's demand structure is less dependent on traditional fuel vehicle consumption compared to palladium, the supply-demand pattern for platinum is tighter, and it is expected to have strong upward momentum, while palladium is likely to follow platinum in a weaker trend. Risk Warning: US Economic Resilience Exceeds Expectations, US Tariff Adjustments on Platinum and Palladium Exceed Expectations, Geopolitical Risks in Major Production Areas, etc.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) fall under the category of rare metals, distinguished by their wear resistance and high-temperature resilience. Their primary application lies in the realm of automotive exhaust catalysts.

According to SMM forecast, the total global supply of palladium in 2023 will be 10,328 koz