[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 6 – April 10), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 502.9 yuan/gram and closed at 521.45 yuan/gram, up 19.2 yuan/gram or 3.82% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 529.5 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 496.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 377.85 yuan/gram and closed at 385.05 yuan/gram, up 7.65 yuan/gram or 2.03% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 399.85 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 366.2 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,133 lots with a total turnover of 9.348 billion yuan and open interest of 15,303 lots, a WoW decrease of 1,287 lots. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 11,379 lots with a total turnover of 4.348 billion yuan and open interest of 7,216 lots, a WoW increase of 88 lots. US-Iran conflict, Israel launched its most intense airstrikes on Lebanon to date. On April 9, the Speaker of Iran's Parliament issued a statement saying that three key provisions in the proposal (comprehensive ceasefire, airspace security, and uranium enrichment rights) had been violated before negotiations even began, and under such circumstances, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations would be unreasonable. Iranian media issued a statement claiming the Strait of Hormuz had been fully closed. US Fed monetary policy, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson noted that employment faced downside risks while inflation faced upside risks. Nick Timiraos wrote that the ceasefire agreement made the US Fed's decision-making more difficult, as energy fluctuations persisted, leading to a prolonged period of rates being held steady. Tariff side, tariff policy has been one of the core political assets during Trump's administration. If high tariffs cannot be maintained through legal channels, his political influence and foreign negotiation leverage will be significantly weakened. After the "reciprocal tariffs" were overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration implemented temporary tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act in the short term to fill the policy vacuum, and in the medium and long-term may rely on Sections 232 and 301 to sustain a high-tariff policy framework, while threatening on social media to impose 50% tariffs on countries providing military weapons to Iran. Against this backdrop, the final determination in the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Russian unwrought palladium is highly likely to maintain the affirmative conclusions of the preliminary ruling. Additionally, the tariff illegality ruling triggered massive tax refund pressures, exacerbating the US fiscal burden, and after geopolitical premiums are digested, will reinforce the "weak US dollar" logic. Palladium new demand, attention should be paid to China's fiberglass industry's transition from platinum to palladium. Starting April 2026, full-year testing will be conducted, and if successful, annual demand could reach 800,000 ounces, potentially offsetting declining demand from the automotive industry. Watch for palladium test results in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the US International Trade Commission's final-stage injury hearing on the palladium anti-dumping and countervailing duty case on April 27. Watch for the transition following LBMA's appointment of IBA as the platinum and palladium price auction administrator.

On February 26, local time in the US, the third round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran took place in Geneva, Switzerland, mediated by Oman. The talks went through two stages with a break of several hours in between, and a new round of negotiations is expected to take place next week. On February 27, Beijing time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised Chinese citizens in Iran to evacuate as soon as possible. The external security risks facing Iran have significantly increased, with multiple countries issuing advisories for their citizens to leave. Given the current security situation in Iran, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy and Consulates in Iran reminded Chinese citizens not to travel to Iran and advised those already there to strengthen safety precautions and evacuate as soon as possible. The Chinese Embassies and Consulates in Iran and its neighboring countries will provide necessary assistance for the evacuation of Chinese citizens via commercial flights or land routes. On February 27, platinum and palladium showed a significant rise, with platinum's weekly gain reaching 19.29%, making it a standout in the precious metals futures sector. Market uncertainties brought about by US tariffs and geopolitical risks continue to support the performance of precious metals. Fundamentals side, tight supply provided fundamental support for platinum. Coupled with many market participants' bullish outlook, some suppliers held prices firm, providing sentiment support for the rise in platinum and palladium. As of around 3:58 PM on February 27, the main platinum contract rose 5.34% to 623.75 yuan/gram, with a weekly gain of 19.29%; the main palladium contract rose 2.77% to 464.85 yuan/gram, with a weekly gain of 10.86%. The A-share market responded in kind, with the precious metals sector closing up 3.55% on February 27. On February 27, spot platinum was quoted at 606~610 yuan/gram, with an average price of 608 yuan/gram, up 3.67% from the previous trading day. The post-holiday rise in platinum, besides being supported by macro factors and safe-haven demand, also benefited from tight supply, positive market expectations, and some suppliers holding prices firm. Due to some suppliers' optimistic outlook, they were unwilling to sell at low prices, making it difficult to find low-priced goods in the market. However, the supply-demand relationship has not changed significantly since before the holiday. The post-holiday rise was more driven by optimistic sentiment, with downstream players adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that platinum prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Future developments will need to focus on changes in the demand side. Throughout February 2026, platinum and palladium prices experienced a roller-coaster ride amid macroeconomic shocks and geopolitical risks. For the whole month, macro sentiment dominated the pace of fluctuations, with supply-side events reinforcing support, and the structural feature of "strong platinum, weak palladium" continued. At present, geopolitical and macro situations strongly support precious metals: the tense Middle East situation directly boosted safe-haven demand; the downward revision of US GDP coupled with stubborn inflation highlighted gold's value preservation function; the legal battle over tariff policies weakened the US dollar's credibility, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, along with global central banks' gold buying spree, collectively provided a solid bottom for precious metal prices. Fundamentals side, the expansion elasticity of platinum and palladium supply is relatively weak. Since platinum's demand structure is less dependent on traditional fuel vehicle consumption compared to palladium, the supply-demand pattern for platinum is tighter, and it is expected to have strong upward momentum, while palladium is likely to follow platinum in a weaker trend. Risk Warning: US Economic Resilience Exceeds Expectations, US Tariff Adjustments on Platinum and Palladium Exceed Expectations, Geopolitical Risks in Major Production Areas, etc.

[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (February 9 – February 13), the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 540 yuan/gram and closed at 523.8 yuan/gram, up 30.9 yuan/gram or 6.27% WoW. The weekly highest price was 559.1 yuan/gram, and the lowest was 516 yuan/gram. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 436.5 yuan/gram and closed at 416.8 yuan/gram, up 9.55 yuan/gram or 2.34% WoW. The weekly highest price was 443 yuan/gram, and the lowest was 411 yuan/gram. In futures trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 36,713 lots, a total turnover of 19.82 billion yuan, and an open interest of 20,073 lots, a decrease of 1,369 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,112 lots, a total turnover of 7.801 billion yuan, and an open interest of 7,188 lots, a decrease of 874 lots WoW. Recent fluctuations in platinum and palladium primarily reflected sentiment transmission from the precious metals sector, with significant resonance among gold, silver, platinum, and palladium amid macro factors. The nomination of Wash as Fed Chairman in early February triggered a sharp pullback in the precious metals sector. His hawkish anti-inflation stance, advocating for "interest rate cuts + balance sheet reduction + function reduction," combined with stronger-than-expected US PPI, raised market concerns about medium and long-term support for precious metals. Expectations of balance sheet reduction may boost the US dollar, disrupt precious metals pricing logic, and lead to frequent sector corrections. Domestic and overseas platinum and palladium term structures diverged; after the price drop, strong restocking by domestic automotive catalyst producers steepened the domestic term structure slope. Strategically, Trump plans to launch a $12 billion "Gold Reserve Plan" to build a strategic reserve of critical minerals and a preferential trade zone, intending to set price floors and use tariffs and other border measures for protection, aiming to establish a rule system with internal subsidies and external barriers, excluding non-member countries from core supply chain benefits. USGS data showed the US import dependency for platinum and palladium reached 89% and 57%, respectively, in 2025, with strategic reserve premiums bullish for platinum and palladium. Additionally, attention is needed on details of new managers announced by the LME and US anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Russian unwrought palladium. In the spot market, the approaching Chinese New Year holiday atmosphere intensified. Along with cooling investment enthusiasm in precious metals recently, aside from some end-users' rigid pre-holiday stockpiling needs, the overall spot market showed thin trading.

On Monday, international crude oil prices fell, while prices of base metals and precious metals generally rose, with palladium leading the gains.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) fall under the category of rare metals, distinguished by their wear resistance and high-temperature resilience. Their primary application lies in the realm of automotive exhaust catalysts.

ANZ Bank expects that there will be a supply shortage of 400,000 ounces in the platinum market in 2023.