[SMM Express] UBS has adopted a more bearish outlook for palladium, lowering its price forecast to around US$1,100/oz as it expects the global market to shift into a supply surplus during 2026. The bank projects an oversupply of approximately 200,000 oz, citing rising recycled metal availability alongside weakening demand from the automotive and investment sectors. Although global mine production is expected to decline compared with 2025, UBS believes the increase in recycled palladium will more than offset lower primary supply. Softer consumption from the autocatalyst industry, which remains the largest source of palladium demand, is also expected to weigh on market fundamentals. The bank noted that China's record palladium imports during the first half of the year were largely driven by the establishment of a new trading exchange rather than stronger underlying industrial demand. As a result, the import surge is not viewed as a signal of improving consumption. Looking ahead, UBS expects the combination of surplus supply and subdued end-user demand to maintain downward pressure on palladium prices. Market participants are likely to monitor recycling flows, vehicle production trends and developments in the automotive sector for further indications of the metal's price direction.

July 31, 2026 - This week, ferrochrome market trading was stagnant and prices fell; the chrome ore market was sluggish, with limited inquiries......

China's Pr-Nd alloy output rose 3.74% MoM and 7.57% YoY in July, driven by stronger toll processing in Inner Mongolia. Tight Pr-Nd oxide supply raised raw material costs, squeezing margins and curbing output at some producers. Weak magnet demand cut downstream operating rates by 3% MoM, leaving the market oversupplied. In August, alloy output is expected to rise about 1% MoM, while magnet production may increase 2.65% MoM, improving market balance.

[SMM Analysis] Off-season Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Fluctuate Limitedly, Steel Mill Profits Basically Stable This week, stainless steel finished product prices remained stable, while production costs edged up slightly but with limited gains, resulting in basically stable overall smelting profits at steel mills. Based on 304 cold-rolling calculations, this week’s profit margins stood at 2.01% when using current raw materials and 2.15% when using inventory raw materials, indicating that stainless steel mills still retained certain smelting profits. On the nickel raw material side, high-grade NPI prices rose and strengthened this week. Shipment disruptions of Indonesian high-grade NPI, combined with month-end restocking purchases by some stainless steel mills and relatively optimistic market expectations for forward NPI prices, drove the price increase. Although mainstream stainless steel mills currently hold sufficient nickel pig iron raw material inventories and spot purchases remained weak, forward order transactions recovered significantly, pushing prices higher. As of this Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesia-origin high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 4 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices remained stable this week, with limited impact from futures consolidation and a slight recovery in NPI. Compared to nickel pig iron, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap became more apparent, providing solid bottom support for prices; expectations of steel mill production resumptions in August also lent positive support. However, narrow profit margins at steel mills and weak end-use demand made cost pass-through difficult, significantly capping the upside room for prices. Overall, in the short term, stainless steel scrap will maintain a consolidating pattern supported by cost advantages and production resumption expectations, with limited overall upside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai area rose by 200 yuan/mt to 10,450 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw materials…

Tata Steel's June-quarter results showed stronger realised prices and a richer product mix helped offset lower steel volumes, highlighting the growing role of value-added products and downstream integration in supporting margins beyond benchmark HRC prices.

SMM July 31 News: The futures stopped rising and edged down today, and the weakness in spot aluminum in South China persisted. Absolute prices remained high. The spot-futures price spread, though expected to weaken, was also elevated. With the weekend approaching and it being month-end, suppliers briefly held prices firm before stepping up shipments to realize profits at high levels. Mainstream quotations were at a discount of 30-10 yuan/mt, down to varying degrees, and discounted supply was ample. On the demand side, downstream users' fear of high prices persisted, leading to sluggish purchases. Traders pushed for lower prices and only made minimal purchases, showing no flexibility beyond fulfilling orders. The oversupply situation continued, and overall transactions were somewhat lackluster. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at a premium of 85-125 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract.