7.22 SMM Alumina Morning Comment Futures: The most-traded alumina 2609 contract showed a retreat after rapid rise overnight, opening at 2,733 yuan/mt, briefly rising to 2,752 yuan/mt before consolidating and pulling back to a low of 2,722 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 2,729 yuan/mt, down 23 yuan/mt from the session high. The daily candlestick formed a small bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure above. Trading volume decreased by 6,948 lots from the previous trading day to 115,000 lots, with volume remaining low and market activity subdued. Open interest decreased by 383 lots to 307,000 lots, as capital continued to flow out slightly and both bulls and bears lacked the willingness to enter continuously. Technically, the closing price of 2,729 yuan/mt remained above the MA5 (2,721.6), MA10 (2,706.2), and MA20 (2,706.95), with the short-term moving averages in a bullish alignment and the short-term center edging higher. However, after peaking at 2,752 yuan/mt during the day, it was clearly blocked and pulled back, with this level forming double resistance with the MA40 (2,740.15), validating the downward pressure from the medium-term moving average. Overall, the futures currently show a consolidation pattern characterized by support from short-term moving averages, notable pressure from the medium-term moving average, and insufficient volume, leaving the near-term direction unclear. Attention should focus on whether the resistance around the MA40 (2,740.15) can be effectively broken, and whether volume can recover sufficiently. If volume remains low and prices cannot reclaim 2,750 yuan/mt, prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note within the 2,720–2,750 yuan/mt range, with support at the MA5 (2,721.6) and the 2,700 round figure. Ore side: As of July 21, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite Index was at $70.36/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $70.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $64/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $58.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $52/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $62.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF average price was $78/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Turkish bauxite CFR price was $78.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Overall, on the domestic ore front, mining operations in Shanxi, Henan, and other areas are gradually resuming, while alumina refineries continue to push for lower prices, leaving domestic ore prices largely in the doldrums. Imported ore side, ocean freight rates stayed high, coupled with ongoing uncertainty over Guinea’s policies, providing some support to ore prices. However, raw material inventory at domestic alumina refineries remained high, purchasing interest was limited, and market price negotiations persisted. In the short term, imported ore prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs. Going forward, close attention still needs to be paid to Guinea’s bauxite quota policy and changes in Australia-China ocean freight rates. Spot Prices: As of July 21, 2026, the SMM Alumina Index stood at 2,719.92 yuan/mt, down 4.16 yuan/mt; the SMM Shandong Alumina Index stood at 2,725.50 yuan/mt, down 4.21 yuan/mt; the SMM Henan Alumina Index stood at 2,752.16 yuan/mt, down 6.75 yuan/mt; the SMM Shanxi Alumina Index stood at 2,757.36 yuan/mt, down 8.04 yuan/mt; the SMM Guizhou Alumina Index stood at 2,731.28 yuan/mt, down 0.80 yuan/mt; and the SMM Guangxi Alumina Index stood at 2,632.27 yuan/mt, down 1.62 yuan/mt. Basis Daily: According to SMM data, on July 21, the SMM Alumina Index was at a discount of 7.08 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract’s latest traded price as of 11:30. Warrant Daily: On July 21, total registered alumina warrants stood at 222,300 mt, down 903 mt from the previous trading day. By region, Shandong registered warrants were 16,176 mt, down 1,800 mt; Henan registered warrants were 1,802 mt, unchanged; Guangxi registered warrants were 12,941 mt, unchanged; Gansu registered warrants were 13,472 mt, down 5,721 mt; and Xinjiang registered warrants were 176,900 mt, up 897 mt. Markets Outside China: As of July 21, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $335/mt; the ocean freight rate was $32.35/mt; and the USD/CNY offered exchange rate was 6.78. Based on these, the equivalent selling price of overseas alumina at major Chinese ports was approximately 2,897.78 yuan/mt, a premium of 177.86 yuan/mt against the SMM Alumina Index that day. Summary: Currently, total alumina inventory in China edged up MoM, with overall changes limited. In terms of structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters declined somewhat, mainly because spot prices remain at relatively high levels, prompting downstream aluminum smelters to slow their procurement of high-priced raw materials and rely more on drawing down existing in-factory inventory. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries increased slightly, but production cuts due to maintenance at some enterprises in Shanxi and new capacity releases in south China largely offset each other, resulting in limited overall growth. At ports, affected by the arrival of new vessels, inventories have rebounded somewhat; regarding warrant inventory, affected by invoicing issues and the narrowing spread between futures and spot prices, the willingness to ship to delivery warehouse has weakened, and inventories have continued to decline; in-transit and station inventories have accumulated somewhat, mainly due to earlier warrants maturing and being released as spot, coupled with continued shipments from Guangxi, which has increased supply in the circulation link. It is expected that in the short term, the overall operating pattern of the alumina market will not change much. Although some enterprises using domestic ore and those with tight ore supply have maintenance plans, the impact on monthly production is limited, and inventory levels are likely to remain at current states. On the price side, as the regional spot mismatch problem gradually eases, the spot price center may pull back slightly, and the subsequent trend is likely to remain under pressure. [All other data beyond publicly available information are derived based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

[Full-Scale US-Iran War Risks Climb, Strengthening Short-Term Upward Drivers for Aluminum Prices] Overall assessment suggests that with the volatile Middle East situation, persistent market concerns over interest rate hikes, and continuously recovering supply, the destocking trend will be hard to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East, the trajectory of geopolitical conflicts, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, and the status of China’s downstream processing orders.

SMM Morning Briefing: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,857/mt, drifted lower in early trading to touch a low of $13,781.5/mt, then its price center rose in a straight line to hit a high of $13,934/mt, and finally closed at $13,905.5/mt, up 1.91%. Trading volume reached 32,700 contracts, and open interest stood at 244,000 contracts, an increase of 344 contracts from the previous trading day, with bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 106,130 yuan/mt, dipped early to 105,830 yuan/mt, then its price center climbed all the way, touching a high of 106,760 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 106,600 yuan/mt, up 1.69%. Trading volume reached 55,000 contracts, and open interest stood at 225,000 contracts, an increase of 9,557 contracts from the previous trading day, with bulls adding positions.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Aluminum Alloy Futures Narrowly Rebounded, Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Continues in Off-Season] On Tuesday, the ADC12 market remained in the doldrums, with the quotation center edging slightly lower. Fundamentally, the pullback in aluminum prices weakened cost support; meanwhile, the off-season effect continued to intensify, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions were sluggish.

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: Korean Giants Frequently Signal Expansion, SHFE Tin Night Session Rises Over 1% to Return to 410,000]

SMM July 22 news: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.69%, SHFE aluminum added 0.56%, SHFE lead fell 0.95%, SHFE zinc rose 0.55%, SHFE tin gained 1.02%. SHFE nickel climbed 0.77%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.22%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.5%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel added 0.2%, iron ore fell 0.13%, and rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose within 0.2%. As for coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.84%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.52%. In the overnight overseas metals market, LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper climbed 1.91%, LME aluminum added 0.81%, LME lead fell 0.48%, LME zinc rose 0.94%, LME tin jumped 1.53%, and LME nickel gained 1.12%. In overnight precious metals, : COMEX gold rose 1.65%, COMEX silver surged 3.5%. The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 3.01%. As of 7:07 on July 22, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic market: [State Administration for Market Regulation: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots] The State Administration for Market Regulation held a press conference on July 21 to introduce the achievements of China’s testing and inspection service industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will implement a three-year action to promote industrial optimization and upgrading and quality improvement of national quality inspection centers through innovative pilot programs, proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots, and drive service model innovation through digital transformation. It will strengthen deep collaboration with industry chain leaders and research institutes, jointly overcome a number of key core technologies, promote the upgrading of testing and inspection from single services to “industry chain synergy,” and transform the role from a “post-event quality gatekeeper” to an “innovation enabler throughout the whole process.” It will coordinate the building of testing capabilities for green and low-carbon development, food safety, and high-risk industrial products, and reinforce the quality defense line for industrial development and public safety. (Jin10 Data App) [Southwest China Adds Large-Scale Hydrogen Source Base] News from CIMC Group: the integrated steel and coke clean energy project in Liupanshui, Guizhou Province, has been officially commissioned and achieved stable operation, becoming a key hydrogen supply node on the “Chongqing-Guizhou-Guangxi” hydrogen corridor. The newly commissioned project is currently the leading demonstration project for hydrogen production from industrial tail gas and resource utilization in south-west China. Relying on the surplus coke oven gas resources of the local steel industry, the project employs an independently developed full-process technology for component separation, converting industrial tail gas originally used for power generation into high-value clean energy. It can produce 24 million m³ of 99.999% fuel cell-grade high-purity hydrogen and approximately 140,000 mt of liquefied natural gas annually, achieving efficient on-site resource conversion. (CCTV News) On the dollar front: The overnight US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.21. Rising oil prices pressured the interest rate market, and market expectations for the Fed to raise rates in July and September both increased today. Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis, believes that energy price fluctuations should dictate the Fed's policy decisions. (Wall Street News) According to CME FedWatch: July probabilities: unchanged (74.9%), cumulative 25 bp hike (25.1%); September probabilities: unchanged (28.9%), cumulative 25 bp hike (55.7%), cumulative 50 bp hike (15.4%). (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, according to a Reuters poll, 78 out of 104 economists (compared with 78 of 102 in last month’s survey) expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026. On the macro front: Today will see the release of the UK’s June CPI m/m, June RPI m/m, and other data. On the crude oil front: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 2.5% and Brent up 2.71%. The US-Iran military conflict entered its 10th day, and Houthi forces announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea plunged 34% in two weeks. (Wall Street News) On the data front: US crude oil inventories rose last week. For the week ending July 17, API crude oil inventories: +2.603 million barrels (expected -500,000, prior -564,000); API gasoline inventories: -1.379 million barrels (expected -1.81 million, prior -1.664 million). Furthermore, Iraq’s oil minister stated that during the Iraqi prime minister’s visit to the US, the total value of agreements signed between the Iraqi Oil Ministry and US companies is expected to reach $200 billion. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), stated that the recent escalation of hostile acts against energy infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas has exacerbated concerns over global energy supply security and added uncertainty to the market outlook. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as a crucial passage bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, faces threats that further exacerbate these concerns. But he also noted that the crude oil market is still supported by several buffer factors. Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are maintaining supply via alternative transportation routes, and some crude oil is still being exported through the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA estimates that Gulf crude oil exports, while below the end-June peak, are still significantly above levels from March to mid-June. Furthermore, increased exports from oil-producing countries such as the US, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan have partially offset supply losses from the Gulf. China's nearly 50% reduction in crude oil imports has also helped stabilize the market. The IEA stated that since the announcement on March 11 to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves, member countries have released about 290 million barrels to the market, with the ongoing release of emergency inventories providing support to the market. (Jinshi Data APP) NYMEX WTI crude oil August futures, affected by contract rollover, will complete the last floor trading at 2:30 on July 22, and the last electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. In addition, some trading platforms' US crude oil contract expiration is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration, so please be extra cautious. Recommended reading: