SMM, July 31 news: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.72%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.23%. SHFE lead fell 0.99%. SHFE zinc rose 0.87%. SHFE tin rose 1.89%. SHFE nickel rose 0.49%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.15%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.76%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract extended the decline from the previous trading day, falling another 3.44%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.12%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.88%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.76%, rebar fell 0.5%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.86%. Stainless steel rose 0.41%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 3.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.93%. For base metals in the overseas market, as of 11:38, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper and LME aluminum edged up, with gains within 0.1%. LME lead fell 0.29%, LME zinc rose 0.35%. LME tin rose 0.1%. LME nickel fell 0.23%. For precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.68%, COMEX silver fell 0.74%. For domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.47%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.97%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.11%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 1.73%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 0.23% to 1,722 points. As of 11:38 on July 31, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 120 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,790 yuan/mt, up 335 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,690 yuan/mt, up 330 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory fell for three consecutive days, mainly due to reduced arrivals... Macro front Domestic: [NDRC: Recently working with relevant departments to expeditiously formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand, 2026-2030] Zhou Hongwei, deputy director of the Department of National Economy under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a press conference that recently, the NDRC is working with relevant departments to expeditiously formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand (2026-2030). Going forward, the NDRC will work with relevant departments to more forcefully and effectively expand domestic demand. [NBS: July manufacturing PMI at 49.2%, business sentiment pulled back somewhat; high-tech manufacturing continued to expand] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, down 1.1 percentage points MoM, with business sentiment pulling back somewhat. In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.0%, down 1.2 percentage points MoM, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing business sentiment from the previous month. In July, the composite PMI output index was 49.3%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM, suggesting that China's enterprise production and business activities slowed down MoM. Huo Lihui, chief statistician of the NBS Service Survey Center, said that in July, the manufacturing PMI pulled back, while high-tech manufacturing continued to expand. Due to a high base from the rapid growth of the manufacturing sector earlier and the onset of the traditional production off-season for some manufacturing industries, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2%. Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing continued to play a supporting and leading role. The PMIs for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing were 51.4% and 53.3%, respectively, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, maintaining relatively fast expansion and driving the manufacturing sector towards new and better development; the PMIs for consumer goods and high energy-consuming sectors were 47.8% and 47.0%, down 2.4 and 0.1 percentage points MoM, respectively, reflecting a pullback in business sentiment. [PBOC net injected 45 billion yuan via reverse repos today, open market operations net injected 421.5 billion yuan this week] The PBOC today conducted 134 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos. With 89 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos maturing today, a net injection of 45 billion yuan was achieved. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 1,242 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and conducted 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos each day from the 29th to the 31st. With a total of 1,020.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 400 billion yuan of 1-year MLF maturing this week, a net injection of 421.5 billion yuan was realized. (Jin10 data app) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 100.22. Data released by the US government on Thursday showed that the US June PCE price index fell 0.1% MoM, the first monthly decline since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, further explaining why the Fed chose to keep rates unchanged this week. The annual PCE inflation rate slowed to 3.7% from the three-year high of 4.1% in May. However, it remains unclear whether inflation will continue to retreat. The cooling of inflation in June was mainly due to lower oil prices after the fragile temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. The core PCE price index rose 0.1% MoM in June, below market expectations, and the YoY growth rate fell to 3.3% from 3.4%. The Fed considers the PCE price index, especially the core PCE, to be the most accurate indicator of US inflation trends. Currently, it shows that US inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for the sixth consecutive year. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 36.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 63.4%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October is 26.9%, that of a cumulative 25-bps hike is 56.3%, and that of a cumulative 50-bps hike is 16.9%. Citigroup economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark said that Fed Chairman Warsh hinted that other inflation indicators beyond the PCE price index will play a larger role in monetary policy, reducing the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate hike. The core PCE inflation rate in June fell to 3.3% from 3.4%. By comparison, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.6%, closer to the Fed's 2% target. Hollenhorst and Clark said: "In the coming months, the market should see more clearly that the broader inflation measures Warsh is focusing on do not show worrisome signs of accelerating inflation." The market currently expects a 59% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. However, the two economists believe this expectation may be wrong. (Jin10 data app) Other currencies: [BOJ voted 8-1 to keep rates unchanged, will hike rates as conditions warrant] The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate at 1% on Friday, as expected, after having raised the benchmark rate to the highest since 1995 last month. BOJ board member Hajime Takata dissented, calling for a 25-bps hike, arguing that the situation has entered a new phase and the BOJ needs to adopt a flexible approach to deal with upside price risks and changes in overseas financial conditions. The BOJ said it will continue to raise rates in accordance with economic, price developments and financial conditions, that underlying inflation is approaching 2%, financial conditions remain accommodative, and significant downside risks to economic activity and upside risks to prices have both diminished. In its latest economic outlook, the BOJ lowered its core CPI forecast for fiscal 2026 to 2.5% from 2.8%, and raised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026 to 0.6% from 0.5%. (Jin10 data) Data: Today will see the release of US Q2 Employment Cost Index quarterly rate, US July Chicago PMI, US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, US July one-year inflation expectations final reading, US July one-year inflation expectations final reading, UK July Nationwide House Price Index monthly rate, Switzerland June real retail sales annual rate, France July CPI monthly rate preliminary, Germany July seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Canada May GDP monthly rate, Eurozone July CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone July CPI monthly rate preliminary, Japan June unemployment rate, and Japan's central bank target rate through July 31, among other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: China will open a new round of price adjustment window for refined oil products. Amazon and Apple reported earnings after the US stock market close on July 30, Japanese NAND flash memory manufacturer Kioxia reported earnings, the Bank of Japan released its interest rate decision and economic outlook report, and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo held a monetary policy press conference. In crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both markets declined, with US crude down 1.58% and Brent crude down 1.24%. The market saw a mix of bullish and bearish factors: mutual airstrikes between the US and Iran posed geopolitical risks, while recently rebounded shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz eased some supply concerns. Traders remained cautious overall, with limited willingness to make big directional bets. (Wall Street Insights) The previously slowed crude oil transshipment services in the Strait of Hormuz have recently become active again, helping move millions of barrels of crude oil out of the strait. As hostilities in the Middle East escalate, this mode of transportation once again plays a critical role. This transshipment model emerged during the most intense period of conflict, becoming a vital lifeline for some oil-producing countries to maintain exports. Relevant vessels transport crude oil from the Persian Gulf—typically turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection—and then conduct ship-to-ship (STS) transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz, after which the receiving tanker delivers the crude oil to buyers around the world. Although crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-war levels, the crude that has been successfully shipped has played an important role in alleviating market concerns about oil price surges. Two people with direct knowledge of the matter said that for at least two shipping enterprises involved in Strait of Hormuz transport, transshipment volumes are now near levels seen before the escalation of hostilities. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Reuters, citing shipping data firm Kpler, 25 commercial cargo vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday, while shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz remains at low levels, with only two oil tankers passing through. Of the 25 vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, 18 were inbound and 7 were outbound. These vessels included two VLCCs, one Suezmax tanker, and five Aframax tankers. Meanwhile, two vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz carried no cargo. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ►

[Malaysia Lead Market Dynamics] The supply of scrap lead raw materials in Malaysia remains persistently tight. Local secondary lead smelters said that due to insufficient raw material supply, the production of lead ingots has dropped again by about 20% recently, with current production maintained at only a quarter of normal levels. Meanwhile, spot premiums for secondary refined lead in Malaysia have further risen, with CIF premiums reported at $170-180/mt. According to the latest SMM quotation, the CIF premiums for Malaysian lead ingot (Pb 99.985%) are quoted at $155-180/mt, up $15/mt from yesterday.

According to SMM data, in July 2026, total aluminum production outside China fell 6.7% YoY, while daily average production outside China rebounded 1.6% MoM, mainly due to progress in production resumptions at aluminum plants in the Middle East and Iceland, as well as production ramp-ups and power-on commissioning at projects in Indonesia, Vietnam and other regions, which boosted output.

SMM News, July 31: According to SMM data, total aluminum production outside China in July 2026 fell 6.7% YoY, mainly due to lower plant loads at Middle Eastern smelters. The daily average production outside China rebounded 1.6% MoM, mainly driven by advancing production resumptions in the Middle East and Iceland, as well as production ramp-ups and new capacity commissioning in Indonesia, Vietnam, and other regions. In July, there were many updates on operating aluminum capacity outside China, summarized as follows: On July 1, Hydro announced on its official website that the Slovalco smelter had reached an agreement with the Slovak government, allowing the resumption of 75,000 mt of aluminum capacity, with production expected to start in Q4 2026. On July 2, according to overseas media reports, Magnitude 7 Metals will restart the Line 1 pots at its aluminum smelter in Marston, Missouri, adding 75,000 mt/year of primary aluminum capacity by the end of 2026. On July 2, EGA announced progress in restoring production at its Al Taweelah plant. All anode removal from the pots was complete; pot cleaning was about 90% finished; and over 20% of the pots had been cleared of solidified aluminum. The first repaired pot was successfully restarted on May 26, and as of July 2, 89 pots (out of a total of 1,262) were in operation. On July 3, Vedanta Aluminum released its production report, showing that the Balco smelter recorded aluminum production of 168,000 mt in FY27 (Q2 2026), up 10% QoQ and 17% YoY, mainly driven by trial production from expanded capacity. On July 15, Rio Tinto released its Q2 performance report, noting that aluminum capacity at Kitimat, NZAS, and AP60 continued to rise. The last two potlines at the Arvida smelter were shut down as planned in June, and the Arvida AP60 is planned to reach full production by the end of this year. On July 16, Alcoa announced its Q2 results, with production reaching 636,000 mt, up 5% QoQ, mainly driven by the completion of the restart at the San Ciprián smelter in Spain, ongoing ramp-up at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, and completed restarts at the Lista smelter in Norway and the Portland smelter in Australia. Looking ahead to August 2026, production resumptions in the Middle East are expected to continue advancing; new projects that started production earlier in Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to keep ramping up production; and the expanded capacity at India's Balco is expected to sustain its production ramp-up. Although conflict in the Middle East erupted once again, market feedback indicated that it did not affect aluminum smelter production again. Overall, aluminum production outside China is expected to maintain its MoM growth trend in the short term. However, recent market rumors have emerged that construction progress of aluminum projects in the Middle East, Indonesia, and other areas is slower than expected. Going forward, close attention should be paid to announcements from relevant aluminum smelters in the Middle East, Indonesia, and India.

SMM News, July 31: According to SMM statistics, total outside-China aluminum production in July 2026 fell 6.7% YoY, mainly due to a YoY decline in operating rates at Middle East aluminum smelters. Outside-China daily average production rebounded 1.6% MoM, mainly driven by ongoing production resumptions at smelters in the Middle East and Iceland, as well as output increases brought by project ramp-ups and power-on commissioning in Indonesia, Vietnam, and other locations. In July, there were many updates on operating aluminum capacity outside China. The details are as follows: On July 1, an announcement on Hydro’s official website showed that the Slovalco aluminum smelter had reached an agreement with the Slovak government, allowing it to resume production of 75,000 mt of aluminum capacity, with production expected to start in 2026 Q4. On July 2, according to overseas media reports, Magnitude 7 Metals will restart the No. 1 potline at its aluminum smelter in Marston, Missouri, adding 75,000 mt/year of primary aluminum capacity by the end of 2026. On July 2, EGA announced that its plant in Al Taweelah had made progress in restoring production: anode removal for all pots had been fully completed; pot cleaning was about 90% complete; and solidified aluminum blocks in over 20% of pots had been cleared. On May 26, the first repaired pot was successfully restarted; as of July 2, 89 pots were in operation (1,262 pots in total). On July 3, Vedanta Aluminium released a production report showing that in FY27 (2026 Q2), aluminum production at the Balco smelter reached 168,000 mt, up 10% QoQ and up 17% YoY, mainly benefiting from trial production output from expanded capacity. On July 15, Rio Tinto released its Q2 results report, noting continued capacity increases at Kitimat, NZAS, and AP60. The last two potlines at the Arvida aluminum smelter were closed as planned in June, and Arvida AP60 is expected to reach full production by year-end. On July 16, Alcoa released its Q2 results report. Its production reached 636,000 mt, up 5% QoQ, mainly benefiting from the completion of production resumptions at the San Ciprián smelter in Spain, ongoing production resumptions at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, and the completion of production resumptions at the Lista smelter in Norway and the Portland smelter in Australia. Looking ahead to August 2026, production resumptions in the Middle East are expected to continue; new projects previously commissioned in Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to continue ramping up production; and Balco’s expanded capacity in India is expected to continue ramping up. Although the Middle East conflict has flared up again, market feedback indicates it has not affected smelter production again. Overall, outside-China aluminum production is expected to maintain the MoM growth trend in the short term. However, recent market rumors suggest that construction progress for some aluminum projects in the Middle East and Indonesia has fallen short of expectations, and continued attention should be paid to subsequent announcements from relevant smelters in the Middle East, Indonesia, and India. [Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM (Guo Mingxin 021-20707919)

SMM, July 31: Sentiment in the A-share semiconductor industry chain futures market recovered, as improving industry chain fundamentals transmitted upward, driving a strong rally in the upstream strategic minor metal sector. As of around 10:15 on July 31, the minor metal sector index had risen 4.54%. Among individual stocks, Dongfang Tantalum and Yunnan Germanium hit their daily limit up, while Yunnan Tin, Xiamen Tungsten, China Rare Earth Nonferrous, China Tungsten High-Tech, Zhangyuan Tungsten, Xianglu Tungsten, and Dongfang Zirconium were among the top gainers. The rally in the minor metal sector was driven by the resonance of multiple industry dynamics. On one hand, demand for semiconductors and AI computing recovered, and expansion expectations for high-speed optical modules and AI servers improved. Germanium and tantalum, as core raw materials for semiconductor optoelectronic devices and high-end tantalum capacitors, saw continued strengthening of downstream demand from emerging industries. On the other hand, germanium and tantalum are strategic dispersed metals with concentrated global supply. Supply tightening expectations arose from geopolitical uncertainties outside China and domestic resource controls. Meanwhile, the ongoing localisation of high-end semiconductor materials further boosted market allocation sentiment, lifting the sector's performance. News [Yunnan Germanium: subsidiary signs major indium phosphide wafer supply contract worth 570 million to 855 million yuan; H1 net profit expected to rise YoY] Yunnan Germanium announced on July 24 that its controlling subsidiary Yunnan Xinyao recently signed a supply agreement with a client to sell indium phosphide wafers (substrates). The total contract value is estimated at between 570.08 million yuan and 855.12 million yuan (tax inclusive), representing 53.48% to 80.23% of the company's audited operating revenue in 2025. The contract will be performed from August 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027. Regarding the impact on the listed company, Yunnan Germanium stated: If the contract is successfully executed, it is expected to have a positive impact on the company's operating results for the performance years. The specific impact and the reporting periods affected will depend on the actual fulfillment of the contract and will be subject to the revenue confirmed by the company's audit. [Dongfang Tantalum: domestic demand for high value-added products such as superalloys and semiconductor tantalum targets is gradually rising] Dongfang Tantalum stated during an institutional survey on July 23 that with the sustained development of China's high-tech and new infrastructure sectors, domestic demand for high value-added products such as superalloys, semiconductor tantalum targets, and high-purity niobium materials is gradually rising. In recent years, the company has been fully advancing the technological upgrading and capacity expansion of its production lines, rationally organizing production, and gradually releasing new capacity. Guided by the strategy of achieving self-reliance in the industry chain, the localisation substitution process has evolved from individual product breakthroughs to systematic solutions, providing a solid foundation for the growth of tantalum, niobium and their alloy products. [Yunnan Tin: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit of 1.47–1.57 Billion Yuan, Up 38.43%–47.85% YoY] Yunnan Tin disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting attributable net profit in H1 2026 to be 1.47 billion to 1.57 billion yuan, up 38.43%–47.85% YoY; and recurring net profit is expected to be 1.88 billion to 1.98 billion yuan, up 44.23%–51.91% YoY. Spot Market Tin Overnight, some US chip stocks rebounded, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged, boosting the performance of tin, known as the “computing metal.” SHFE tin opened higher on July 31, lifting spot prices. In the tin spot market: On July 31, the average price of SMM 1# tin was 425,850 yuan/mt, up 1.51% from the previous trading day. As tin prices rose, spot market trading was sluggish. Fundamentals: (1) Supply: Tight ore and ingot supply, low inventory, amplifying elasticity. Myanmar’s rainy season extends through end-August, with mine flooding and logistics disruptions; Wa State’s June tin ore output was only 6,392 mt in physical content. China’s tin ore imports in July are expected to be basically flat MoM. The slow pace of production resumptions in Wa State has been priced in ahead of time, with no major shutdowns in the near term, but supply contraction expectations during the rainy season have yet to fully materialize. Indonesia’s tin ingot imports in July are expected to show some recovery MoM. (2) Demand: Improved solder operating rates, but acceptance of high prices needs to be tested. The operating rate at solder enterprises was 78.8% in June, up 4.6 percentage points from May; however, after the sharp spot price rally on July 30, downstream users were cautious and stayed on the sidelines, and whether high-priced spot cargoes can be absorbed still requires verification. Stockpiling for new Apple/Huawei models in late August is the next demand trigger point. Institutional Views A research report from Minmetals Securities points out: Germanium accounts for 60% of applications in optical communication and satellite PV fields, making it a metal for “AI computing power + space energy.” With its excellent refractive index tuning capability and radiation resistance, germanium has become a key material for AI data center optical interconnects and low-earth-orbit satellite PV systems. Looking at changes in demand structure, from 2020 to 2026, downstream germanium consumption grew from 160 mt to 240 mt, with optical communication’s share rising to 40% and satellite PV’s share to 20%, together accounting for 60% of total downstream demand. It expects that 90% of the demand growth in 2027 will come from two high-growth sectors: AI hardware and satellite PV. A research report from Caitong Securities shows: As AI computing power demand explodes, the market size of indium phosphide, used as a chip substrate material, will continue to expand. Indium resources are scarce and subject to policy restrictions, and product prices are entering an uptrend. High-purity red phosphorus is a very important semiconductor base material, with high purification technology barriers. Against the backdrop of accelerated AI application deployment driving related infrastructure construction, the indium phosphide substrate industry chain is expected to see dual opportunities from demand growth and domestic substitution. It is recommended to focus on enterprises with resource and technological advantages in the links of indium phosphide, indium, and high-purity red phosphorus. A research report from Datong Securities shows that minor metals have staged an independent rally, with tightened supply combined with strategic attributes leading to a value revaluation. The rare earth sector is preemptively pricing in new regulatory controls, with Myanmar ore imports disrupted, tight spot supply of Pr-Nd oxide driving prices sharply higher; tungsten and antimony ore grades are declining along with environmental protection-driven production restrictions, widening the supply gap, while PV and hard alloy demand remains firm during the off-season, and inventories are at low levels. AI computing power and communications sectors are boosting demand for gallium and germanium, and coupled with export control policies, concentrated stockpiling outside China is widening the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets. Scarce resources are resonating with financial attributes, and the sector continues to be favoured by capital. Recommended Reads: