![Return to Work Drove a Sharp Rise in the Operating Rate of Secondary Aluminum Producers in March[SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imageskkgTu20240508153005.png)
[SMM Analysis]Return to Work Drove a Sharp Rise in the Operating Rate of Secondary Aluminum Producers in March, Expected to Decline in April
Apr 14, 2026 18:50SMM Express: China's steel export prices remained stable today, with most shipments scheduled for May to June. Intraday market inquiries were active, and HRC order-taking also improved recently, with most deals concluded at $480-485/mt, while some transactions in North China were closed at $475/mt. Billet performance remained steady, while slab trading volume saw a significant increase, mostly concentrated among private enterprises.
Apr 14, 2026 17:56[Brief Review of China's Domestic Iron Ore Market] The domestic ore market in Tangshan remained generally stable. The ex-factory prices of iron ore concentrates with 66 grade on a dry basis, tax included, stood at 970-980 yuan/mt. Recently, the pace of steel enterprises' ordering slowed down, with steel mills mainly purchasing as needed, and the overall desire to bargain down prices was relatively strong. Mines and beneficiation plants faced certain resistance in shipments, but most asking prices remained firm, with sellers unwilling to sell below their psychological expectations.
Apr 14, 2026 17:13[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] In terms of supply, coking costs declined somewhat, coke enterprise profits saw some recovery, production remained relatively stable, and downstream demand for coke was strong, with coke inventory at coke enterprises staying at low levels. Demand side, steel mill hot metal production increased slightly, demand for coke was strong, and some steel mills had relatively low coke inventory levels, with urgent procurement requests for coke. In summary, coke fundamentals were in a tight balance, the short-term coke market was expected to hold up well and remain generally stable with slight rise, and regarding the second round of coke price increase, coke and steel enterprises were still in a standoff.
Apr 14, 2026 16:40On April 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.135 million mt of steel in March 2026, up 1.298 million mt MoM, a 16.6% increase MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to March totaled 24.717 million mt, down 9.9% YoY. China imported 512,000 mt of steel in March 2026, up 143,000 mt MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY. China's Steel Exports Increased MoM in March Due to fewer days in February, combined with the Chinese New Year holiday and other factors, steel exports saw a seasonal rebound in March. Earlier SMM survey data on export order-taking also hinted at this trend — domestic sellers gradually resumed taking orders from mid-to-late January, with export order-taking maintaining a relatively high growth rate MoM. On the other hand, the global manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for two consecutive months, with Asia, Europe, and the Americas all rising MoM. China's Steel Imports Increased MoM in March Import side, China's cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY; net steel exports reached 23.378 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for 11 consecutive months, driven by some economies in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, while Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions persisted. China's new export orders index for the manufacturing sector was 49.1% in February, up 4.1 percentage points MoM, showing a relatively notable recovery MoM. Data monitored by the World Steel Association showed that global crude steel production in February 2026 fell 2.2% YoY to 141.8 million mt. Among them, the pullback in China's production was mainly due to physical shutdowns during the Chinese New Year holiday and post-holiday high inventory forcing steel mills to actively cut hot metal production. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world also declined significantly by 8.75% MoM, with notable divergence in production schedule paces across regions — the most prominent being the Middle East, where output dropped markedly due to geopolitical conflicts and tariffs. The contraction in ex-China production, particularly in the Middle East, created opportunities for China's exports, especially semi-finished products. Chart 1 - Iran's Export Data by Product Category As of April 13, 2026, HRC export prices (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $505/mt, $625/mt, and $495/mt respectively, while China's HRC export price (FOB) was $485/mt. Currently, China's HRC export price was +$20/mt, +$140/mt, and +$10/mt lower than those countries respectively. This shows that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has pushed up ex-China steel costs far more than in China , further highlighting China's steel export price advantage. Chart 2 - Global Major Market HRC Prices Based on SMM's latest steel mill export scheduling data, HRC export planned volume this month was 851,000 mt, up 67,000 mt from last month's actual exports, an increase of 8.5% MoM. According to SMM steel export order-taking data, as production gradually resumed in and outside China, steel export order-taking in March increased 13.98% MoM from February. Due to the gap left by Iran's exports to Southeast Asia, the most notable increase was in semi-finished products, while the increase in finished products was relatively limited. Taking all factors into consideration, with order-taking and shipping gradually recovering, SMM expects steel exports in April to continue rebounding MoM. However, differences across product categories may emerge, which is expected to result in relatively limited incremental volume in the General Administration of Customs data released on the 8th, while the product-specific data released on the 20th may show relatively strong performance in semi-finished products. Chart 3 - SMM Steel Export Order Taking VolumeData Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. 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Apr 14, 2026 16:00Brazilian mining giant Vale has officially ordered its first fleet of ethanol-powered ocean-going bulk carriers from Shandong Shipping to service its international iron ore trade. This landmark order is a crucial component of Vale's strategy to decarbonize its maritime supply chain and reduce scope 3 emissions associated with shipping raw materials to global steelmakers. The introduction of alternative fuels in maritime logistics is expected to significantly impact long-term freight costs in the seaborne iron ore market.
Apr 14, 2026 14:55SMM launches the "SMM China Titanium Dioxide Price Index" to provide a transparent pricing reference and reflect market trends, effective from March 20, 2026.
PriceMar 19, 2026 11:59To better serve industrial clients and stay closer to the market, SMM is adding 6 new scrap copper price assessments for Japan/US regions, officially launching on 16/1/2026. 1. New Price Points Copper Scrap - East Asia - Japan Millberry CIF China - Japan Millberry CIF China Taiwan - Japan Millberry CIF Korea Copper Scrap - America - United States Millberry CIF Japan - United States No.1 Copper Material CIF Japan - United States No.2 Copper Material CIF Japan 2. SMM Price Methodology General Principles Shanghai Metals Market (hereinafter referred to as "SMM") is a completely independent third-party service provider that does not participate in any actual transactions. Instead, SMM maintains close communication with buyers and sellers as a market observer or organizer and provides related services to the market. This document sets forth the standards for SMM's East Asia and US scrap copper price assessments. The purpose of establishing these standards is to create a transparent and verifiable SMM price formation mechanism. 3. Formation of SMM East Asia and US Scrap Copper Price Assessments 3.1 Significance of the Assessments In recent years, Japan and the United States have continued to play important roles in the global scrap copper trading system. Their export prices for berry copper and copper scrap hold strong reference value for major Asian consumer markets. Due to differences in origin quality structure, trade flows, and regional demand, actual transaction prices vary across different destinations. To more accurately reflect the true price levels of Japanese and US scrap copper in cross-regional circulation, reduce information asymmetry risks, and help upstream and downstream enterprises more reasonably evaluate procurement costs and formulate trading strategies, SMM plans to add price points including Japan Berry Copper CIF China, Japan Berry Copper CIF South Korea, Japan Berry Copper CIF Taiwan China, US Berry Copper CIF Japan, US No.1 Copper CIF Japan, and US No.2 Copper CIF Japan. These will be collected according to a unified methodology and publicly released to the market for industry reference. SMM price members will be able to access relevant historical price data simultaneously. 3.2 SMM East Asia and US Scrap Copper Price Assessment Methodology 3.2.1 Product Specifications and Standards Currently, scrap copper reference standards follow ISRI standards. If changes occur, SMM will revise accordingly based on actual circumstances. 3.2.2 Price Terms Prices are CIF indicative prices, expressed as a coefficient (%) unit. 3.2.3 Payment Terms Prices reflect payment conditions including TT or other conventional payment methods. 3.2.4 Quote Format and Timing Quoted prices are in range format, showing minimum and maximum prices. For example: Japan Millberry CIF China: 97.5%-98%. New price points will be assessed weekly. SMM will publish prices on the website front page at 3:30 PM on the last day of each working week. 3.2.5 Data Collection Method According to the data collection confirmation agreement, SMM price analysts will regularly collect price information from scrap copper industry contacts in Japan through telephone, WeChat, email, and other methods. This price information includes completed transaction prices and the most likely anticipated transaction prices expected by the enterprise. All instant messaging content and any face-to-face communication records will be archived telephone communication details will be recorded and entered into the database. SMM analysts must comply with the Compliance System when reporting to their supervisors any coerced or threatened communications from market participants, or any inducements attempting to influence assessments. After price publication, SMM will not make corrections or adjustments on that day. 3.2.6 Data Standardization Although SMM has standardized definitions for our prices, market transactions exist in various forms. Each transaction price is influenced by numerous factors, including order size, material brand, delivery time, payment terms, etc. SMM will comprehensively consider market quotes, bids, and transaction information and align them with our standards. We welcome more relevant enterprises along the industry chain to participate in and support SMM in better serving scrap copper industry-related enterprises. For any questions, please contact us. Shanghai Metal Market Copper Department - Aw Yong Yi Cheong Contact: +6011-25798397 Email add: awyong.yicheong@smm.cn
PriceJan 12, 2026 15:35SMM Clarification Statement SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM" or "the Company"), as a professional spot market price reporting agency and information provider, has recently noticed the circulation of false information regarding the fairness of SMM's price assessment. To avoid market misunderstandings, maintain a healthy and transparent market environment, and protect the Company's legitimate rights and interests, SMM hereby makes the following solemn clarification and statement: I. The Difference Between Spot Prices and Futures Prices is a Normal Reflection of Market Mechanisms According to basic economic principles, spot prices reflect the immediate supply-demand relationship and deliverable transaction conditions of the underlying asset, while futures prices reflect market expectations for future supply and demand, including factors such as capital cost and carrying costs. Both follow the principle of "convergence at maturity," meaning that futures prices gradually converge towards spot prices as the contract expiration date approaches. Therefore, during the life of the contract, the difference between spot prices and futures prices, especially with far-month contracts, is a normal phenomenon under the market pricing mechanism. II. Historical Data Proves the Rationality of the Price Spread Structure To objectively present the facts, SMM has made a price spread analysis chart based on publicly available market data: The chart clearly shows that from September 2023 to 2025, the monthly price spread between the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price and the GFEX lithium carbonate futures contract prices fluctuated between positive and negative territory, always remaining within a reasonable range, and exhibited a significant convergence trend as the contract expiration date approached. This fully aligns with the market rule of futures and spot price convergence. Comparing a certain periods' futures prices (especially those of far-month most-traded contracts) with spot assessment prices and concluding that there is a "consistent significant deviation" is fundamentally flawed in methodology and can easily mislead market judgment. Any behavior that selectively highlights short-term trends in the price spread without considering the broader context is partial and irresponsible, failing to reflect the overall market situation. III. Recent Market Risk Control Measures Recently, to maintain the stable operation of the lithium carbonate futures market and prevent potential risks, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, in accordance with its risk management rules, issued multiple notifications consecutively between November and December 2025, implementing a series of risk control measures for relevant contracts, including adjustments to transaction fee standards and trading limits. These measures represent the exchange's commitment to fulfill its self-regulatory duties in accordance with the law during specific market periods, aiming to promote the steady development of the market. IV. The Emergence, Nature, and Harm of False Information It is noteworthy that during this sensitive period, when the aforementioned risk control measures were being intensively implemented, a significant amount of false information began circulating on the Internet. While such information varies in content, it shares an identical core narrative: False claims have been made that SMM’s prices "consistently and significantly deviate from fair value and futures prices" and that "there are illegal benefit-related connections with certain institutions". These claims are entirely groundless. The timing and manner of their dissemination indicate that their purpose is not professional discussion but rather an attempt to exert improper pressure on SMM by confusing the price logic of spot and futures markets, interfere with the neutrality of spot price assessments, and consequently potentially mislead market expectations and disrupt the normal relationship between futures and spot prices. SMM hereby solemnly declares that SMM is always committed to price discovery in the spot market, does not participate in any futures market trading operations, and resolutely maintains market order. V. The Compliance, Neutrality, and Supervision Mechanisms of SMM's Price Assessment As a professional market price assessment agency, SMM always adheres to the principles of neutrality, objectivity, and fairness. SMM's price assessment methodology strictly follows the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) "Principles for Financial Benchmarks" and is subject to audits by independent third-party audit firms. In terms of internal governance, SMM has established a comprehensive firewall system to ensure that personnel and management involved in the price assessment process do not hold any related futures or spot positions, thereby eliminating conflicts of interest at an institutional level. SMM also has no history of any penalties from securities regulatory authorities for violations. We consistently maintain an open attitude towards market supervision based on facts. VI. Appeal to the Public SMM strongly condemns the recent malicious fabrication and dissemination of false information in the market, which damages SMM's commercial reputation and attempts to disrupt the order of the futures and spot markets, and has initiated legal proceedings to protect its rights. Currently, SMM is comprehensively and continuously collecting and preserving evidence related to the infringements. For suspected infringing acts, the Company will take all legal measures, including but not limited to reporting to relevant regulatory authorities and filing complaints with relevant online platforms, to resolutely pursue the legal liability of the infringing parties. SMM reserves the right to pursue all legal consequences against the relevant responsible parties. We once again call on all market participants to enhance their legal awareness and professional discernment capabilities, obtain information from authoritative channels, analyze the market rationally, resolutely resist and refuse to spread any unverified and unfounded rumors, and jointly maintain a fair, orderly, and healthy development environment for the industry chain. SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Dec 26, 2025
Dec 26, 2025 17:30