[SMM Analysis: LME Copper Prices Fluctuate at Highs; Procurement Slows Across China, Japan, and South Korea Amid Flat Market Turnover]This week, LME copper prices fluctuated at high levels. Quotations for bare bright copper held high at 98.5%–99% payability. In contrast, offers for No. 2 ccopper material scrap(Birch/Cliff) showed distinct divergence. However the global recycled raw material market currently exhibits a gridlock defined by "weak supply and demand."

SMM, June 18: This week, trading sentiment weakened somewhat for domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises, with prices running steady. As of now, SMM’s aluminum fluoride reference price is 11,280-11,700 yuan/mt; cryolite prices also held steady, with SMM’s reference price at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side, the 97% fluorite wet powder market was largely stable, with mainstream delivery-to-factory prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt, and notable price spreads by region. Supply side, mine operating rates in the north continued to recover, and Mongolian imports gradually arrived at ports, resulting in a looser supply-demand pattern; however, a coal mine accident in Shanxi triggered expectations of stricter mine safety and environmental oversight, which may cause periodic disruptions to some mines’ production going forward, leaving a wait-and-see sentiment on the supply side. Demand side remained subdued—downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises, constrained by insufficient operating rates at refrigerant and fluoropolymer terminals, mainly made just-in-time procurement, with limited large-order follow-through. Consequently, fluorite prices are likely to stay weak in the near term. Meanwhile, the aluminum hydroxide market firmed slightly, with SMM’s weighted average price at 1,683 yuan/mt, up 1.2% WoW; the sulphuric acid market hovered at highs, as sulphur cost support and production cuts for maintenance tightened supply in some regions, but cautious demand during the phosphate fertiliser off-season capped upside room, while LFP and fine chemicals provided just-in-time demand support. Raw material side, both aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid strengthened, further lifting overall production costs, yet costs could not be effectively passed downstream, putting the industry as a whole under notable pressure. Supply side, a pattern of ‘rigidly high costs—persistent profit pressure—low operating rates’ persisted, with the industry operating rate holding around 40%, limiting effective incremental supply. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained high and stable, providing rigid support, but aluminum smelters focused on just-in-time restocking and pushing for lower prices, adopting a wait-and-see stance without releasing additional demand for the time being. On balance, the aluminum fluoride market currently lacks directional drivers, caught in a tug-of-war stalemate between upstream and downstream, with transactions limited to just-in-time procurement, and prices expected to largely stay steady in the near term, leaving limited room for wild swings. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material cost-side dynamics and marginal changes in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

This week (June 12, 2026 – June 18, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters across three provinces was 65.19%, down 1.01 percentage points WoW. This week, production at smelters in Henan and Yunnan remained stable, with overall operating rates basically flat WoW. A medium-sized smelter in Hunan began equipment maintenance early in the week, with production expected to resume after maintenance concludes in mid-July, leading to a slight pullback in the regional operating rate. In other regions, a smelter in Jiangxi slightly ramped up production this week following the completion of maintenance, driving the operating rate in east China higher.

This week, ferrous metals edged higher before extending their pullback, with coking coal posting the largest decline. At the beginning of the week, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on launching a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and news that the U.S. and Iran were to sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th improved market sentiment, lifting all ferrous metals. In the latter half of the week, expectations for an eighth round of coke price hikes materialized in the futures market. However, as steel mill profits narrowed further and spot coke had largely priced in the eighth increase, further upside room was limited. Combined with emerging expectations of peak hot metal output, futures began to correct and cost support weakened. Meanwhile, May macro data came in below expectations, dragging the entire ferrous metals complex lower...

[Silicon metal futures fluctuate narrowly, spot market largely stable]: Downstream and trader procurement sentiment is cautious, with some users digesting previous low-price inventories. Clients outside China have purchase price expectations lower than current prices, and sentiment for new orders in the market is sluggish. Some users expect to purchase via futures point pricing at around 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt. On the supply side, the increase in operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the rainy season is already within expectations, with few new variables in the market. As variables on both supply and demand sides are highly deterministic in the short term, market sentiment in the buyer-seller tug-of-war appears rational. The silicon metal price center is expected to remain near the low end of the range in the near term.

June 18: North China ports: South African high-iron manganese ore: 31.4-32.1 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate: 37.5-38 yuan/mtu, down WoW; Gabonese ore: 40.6-41 yuan/mtu, down WoW; 46% Australian lumps: 43.3-43.8 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African medium-iron ore: 37.5-38 yuan/mtu, flat WoW. South China ports: South African high-iron manganese ore: 34.1-34.6 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate: 36.5-37 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabonese ore: 41-41.5 yuan/mtu, down WoW; 46% Australian lumps: 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron ore: 37-37.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW. The manganese ore market remains stable but stagnant, with sluggish end-use demand and a dominant wait-and-see sentiment in trading.