Iron ore futures trended strong today. The most-traded DCE I2609 contract closed at 706 yuan/mt, up 0.93% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port rose 3-8 yuan/mt from the prior trading day. Traders offered actively, steel mills purchased as needed, and overall spot cargo transactions were mediocre. The latest SMM survey data showed blast furnace operating rates at steel mills at 89.04%, up 0.11 percentage point WoW. Blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.80%, down 0.1 percentage point WoW. Daily average hot metal production at sampled steel mills stood at 2.4058 million mt, down 2,900 mt WoW. With increased steel mill maintenance, pig iron production is expected to edge down next week. Yet the maintenance cycles are short, keeping near-term iron ore demand relatively stable. In news, as the false invoice incident continues to unfold, credit institutions are expected to tighten risk exposure, potentially hampering near-term iron ore trade liquidity. On balance, ore prices are likely to consolidate in the short run.

According to SMM's tracking survey data, daily average pig iron production in July fell by more than 20,000 mt compared with June. The average daily hot metal production in August is expected to be on par with July, facing significant resistance to growth.

[Market Slump Drives Production Cuts; August Silicon Metal Output Expected to Fall] According to SMM data, silicon metal production in July stood at 388,000 mt, up 8.3% MoM and up 14.7% YoY. Cumulative silicon metal output from January to July 2026 reached 2.3783 million mt, up 8% YoY.

[SMM Analysis: Off-Season Demand Combined with High Copper Prices Puts July Copper Wire and Cable Production Under Pressure] In July, the operating rate of the copper wire and cable industry recorded 69.82%, down 2.4 percentage points MoM and down 1.79 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 75.13%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 47.75%, and that of small-sized enterprises was 46.93%......

[Pr-Nd Oxide Continues to Decline, Dragging Metals Down, Magnetic Material Scrap Waits and Sees, Medium-Heavy Rare Earths Stable] Yesterday, some traders continued to sell at low prices, but metal plants' purchase willingness remained poor. Pr-Nd oxide prices further dropped, market confidence was unstable, and downstream inquiries and trading continued to be sluggish. For medium-heavy rare earths, downstream purchasing enthusiasm for dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide markets remained relatively low, plant quotations remained firm, and prices fluctuated relatively little for the time being.

[Aluminum Divergence Consolidation Recovery Inside and Outside China; Middle East Tensions Ease, Disturbing Aluminum Price Risk Premium] Overall, recent improvement on the macro front, interest rate hike expectations remaining on hold and easing the marginal constraints on the nonferrous metals sector, along with the continued rise in the proportion of liquid aluminum in China, have supported aluminum prices. However, the continued rollout of long-term aluminum capacity outside China, weak traditional end-use demand in China during the traditional off-season, and disturbances from Middle East geopolitical uncertainties are expected to result in aluminum prices consolidating on a strong note.