Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,934.5/mt and moved sideways around the daily average during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it briefly rose to test the $1,940/mt level before weakening again to a low of $1,930/mt. It then rebounded and recovered all losses, touching a high of $1,946/mt before the close and finally settling at $1,945/mt, up $14/mt, or 0.73%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract gapped lower to open at 16,605 yuan/mt. Early in the session, supported by stronger LME lead, it climbed to a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before pulling back and consolidating above the intraday average. It edged up slightly before the close and eventually settled at 16,665 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.15%. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was nearly at a standstill, production cuts by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries also kept escalating. Three sources familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administration in the US had asked Israel to stop further airstrikes on Iran’s energy facilities, especially oil infrastructure. This was said to be the first time the US had clearly restrained Israeli military operations since the joint US-Israeli military action against Iran began. The US made this request partly because of concerns that it could push up global oil prices and trigger large-scale Iranian retaliation against energy infrastructure in the Gulf region. The 2026 draft report on central and local fiscal budgets clarified the total national defense expenditure budget, and Zhang Xiaogang introduced this year’s national defense spending arrangements. In 2026, the national general public budget arranged national defense expenditure of 194 billion yuan, up 6.9% from the previous year’s executed amount, of which central government spending was 191 billion yuan, up 7% from the previous year’s executed amount. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, and with delivery approaching, some suppliers shifted cargoes to ship to delivery warehouse, reducing shipment pressure and relatively narrowing discounts. This was mainly reflected in primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site, with ex-works quotations in mainstream producing areas ranging from discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In addition, secondary lead smelters held prices firm in shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted ex-works around parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. As arrivals of imported lead increased, however, discounts on individual secondary refined lead quotations widened to 200 yuan/mt ex-works. Downstream enterprises bought the dip on demand, mainly purchasing primary lead, and transactions relatively improved. Inventory: As of March 10, LME lead inventory stood at 284,875 mt, flat from the previous day; as of March 9, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued its accumulating trend. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Recently, downstream enterprises have still mainly been digesting inventories, with low enthusiasm for procurement and stockpiling. After lead ingot inventories accumulated at medium- and large-scale smelters in Henan and other regions, they were continuously transferred to social warehouses. For secondary refined lead, as scrap battery prices remained firm while lead prices were in the doldrums, smelters showed low enthusiasm for shipments and ramping up operating rates, and discounts in spot secondary refined lead quotations narrowed, with downstream just-in-time procurement tilting toward primary lead. In addition, secondary refined lead will enter delivery as substitutes, coupled with replenishment from imported lead, refined lead social inventory is expected to find it difficult to reverse the short-term trend of continued accumulation, and lead prices remain under pressure.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Data; LME Zinc Posted a Bullish Candlestick] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,240.0/mt and dipped to $3,221.0/mt in early trading. It then saw its center fluctuate upward at a slow pace. After entering the night session, it accelerated higher and touched a high above $3,343.0/mt, finally closing up at $3,323.0/mt, up $93/mt, a gain of 2.88%. Trading volume increased to 121,000 lots, while open interest fell by 516 lots to 219,000 lots.

As the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, oil industry executives from companies such as ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Shell issued warnings on Tuesday. They stated that further attacks on critical energy infrastructure could have severe consequences for global energy supply and prices.

SMM June 17 news: Metal market: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance overnight, with SHFE tin slightly down. SHFE copper rose 0.45%. SHFE nickel fell 0.48%. SHFE lead gained 0.35%. SHFE aluminum edged down 0.02%, while SHFE zinc advanced 0.62%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract increased 0.18%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract climbed 0.64%. Overnight ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.07%, stainless steel down 0.2%, rebar gaining 0.17%, and HRC slightly higher. For coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 1.08%, coke increased 0.85%. Overnight overseas market metals saw LME base metals generally rise, with LME copper up 0.52%, LME aluminum gaining 0.56%, LME lead rising 0.8%, LME zinc jumping 1.41%, while LME tin fell 0.44% and LME nickel declined 0.42%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold dropped 1.4%; COMEX silver edged up 0.04%. SHFE gold fell 1.37%, SHFE silver decreased 0.08%. As of 8:15 am June 17, overnight closing quotes 》Click to view SMM futures data dashboard Macro front Domestic: [Notice: MOFCOM to hold press conference on 19th regarding key work in commerce sector] The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference at 3 pm on Thursday, June 19, 2025, where its spokesperson will introduce recent key work in the commerce sector and take questions from reporters. [NAFMII convenes symposium on supporting high-quality development of automakers in China's interbank market] NAFMII held a symposium on June 16, 2025, discussing interbank market support for high-quality development of automakers. Representatives from automakers and lead underwriters attended, with the meeting chaired by NAFMII Vice President Zhong Xu. The association presented interbank market support for the automotive industry. Representatives from 9 companies - FAW, SAIC, BAIC Group, BYD, Geely Holding, Great Wall Motor, NIO Group, XPeng Motors, and Xiaomi Group - described challenges faced amid cut-throat competition and proposed suggestions for optimizing financing environment. Lead underwriters conducted on-site matchmaking for automakers' financing needs. Next, NAFMII will implement the Party Central Committee and State Council's strategic deployment on developing new quality productive forces through technological innovation, strengthen bond market system building and product innovation, optimize financial services tailored for the automotive sector, encourage automakers to increase bond financing while maintaining healthy development and avoiding disorderly competition, and actively promote intelligent, high-end, green transformation to advance China's automotive industry toward high-quality development. Cailian Press) [CPCA: 52,000 Pickup Trucks Sold in May, Up 13.6% YoY] According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), in May 2025, 51,700 pickup trucks were produced nationwide, up 20.8% compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, 255,000 pickup trucks were produced, up 23.4% YoY. In May 2025, 52,000 pickup trucks were sold in the market, up 13.6% compared to May 2024, and down 8.1% MoM from the previous month, remaining at a high level in the past five years. From January to May 2025, 258,000 pickup trucks were sold, up 18.2% YoY compared to January-May 2024. [Goldman Sachs Bullish Again: Global Capital Returns to China, Optimistic About China's "Top 10" Stocks] Kinger Lau, Chief China Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, recently released a research report titled "The Return of China's Private Enterprises: The Tide Has Turned." Lau pointed out that driven by various macro, policy, and micro factors, the medium-term investment prospects for China's private enterprises are improving. Goldman Sachs has listed China's "Top 10," namely the ten Chinese private publicly listed firms that Goldman Sachs is particularly bullish on. They are: Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta. 》Click for details US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.03% overnight, closing at 98.15. The market is focused on the tense situation between Israel and Iran, as well as the US Fed's policy meeting this week. The Fed meeting will conclude on Wednesday. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the market will be watching how the Fed views recent data, which generally indicate softening economic activity, but the risk of rising price pressures remains high. Other Currencies: Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) began their annual summit in Canada. With about three weeks left until Trump's deadline for trade agreements, the market remains nervous as agreements with major trading partners such as the EU and Japan have not yet been signed. They will be looking for any progress made in any bilateral talks with the US on the sidelines of the G7 leaders' summit. (Webstock Inc.) Data: Today, data such as the Bank of Japan's policy benchmark interest rate on June 17, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone in June, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany in June, the US monthly import price index for May, the US annual import price index for May, the US monthly retail sales for May, the US monthly core retail sales for May, the US annual retail sales for May, the US monthly retail sales control group associated with GDP for May - seasonally adjusted, the US monthly industrial output for May, the US capacity utilization rate for May, the US monthly manufacturing output for May, the US manufacturing capacity utilization rate for May, and the US annual industrial output for May - seasonally adjusted, will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that: Today, 182 billion yuan of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) matured; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision; US President Trump visited Canada from June 15 to 17 to attend the G7 Leaders' Summit. Crude oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, with WTI down 2.06% and Brent down 2.33%. Market concerns about disruptions to crude oil supplies in the Middle East eased, leading to a decline in oil prices. The US Navy said on Monday that electronic interference with commercial shipping navigation systems around the Strait of Hormuz had surged in recent days, affecting vessels passing through the area. Approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption, or about 18-19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate, and fuels, passes through the Strait. Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces about 3.3 million bpd of oil and fuels and exports more than 2 million bpd. Analysts and OPEC observers said that the spare capacity of OPEC oil-producing countries to increase production to offset any disruptions is roughly equivalent to Iran's production. A preliminary survey showed that US crude oil and distillate inventories likely fell last week, while gasoline inventories may have increased. Before the weekly inventory report was released, the average forecast of four surveyed analysts was that US crude oil inventories increased by about 600,000 barrels in the week ending June 13. US distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, were expected to decrease by about 100,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories were expected to increase by 200,000 barrels. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 4:30 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 10:30 PM Beijing time on Wednesday. (Webstock Inc.)

On Friday (June 13) local time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that it was prepared to release emergency oil reserves if the crude oil market faced shortages following Israel's attack on Iran. This statement drew criticism from its "rival," the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which claimed that such remarks would only create panic sentiment in the market. The IEA primarily represents some oil-consuming countries, while OPEC represents major oil-producing countries. In recent years, the two have continued to have disagreements on issues such as global oil demand trends and the pace of energy transition. Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the IEA, stated that the current market supply was sufficient, but the agency was ready to take action if necessary. He added that the IEA's oil security system had 1.2 billion barrels of strategic and emergency oil reserves. In response, Haitham Al Ghais, the Secretary General of OPEC, criticized the IEA for repeatedly emphasizing the need to release emergency oil reserves, an unnecessary move that created false alarms and sparked panic sentiment in the market. Al Ghais emphasized that there had been no changes in either crude oil supply or market dynamics, so "there was no need to take unnecessary measures." It is worth mentioning that after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the US and its allies coordinated with the IEA to release emergency oil reserves, a move that was also strongly opposed by OPEC at the time. Reviewing the current incident, according to CCTV News, Israel launched a "pre-emptive strike" on nuclear facilities and military targets inside Iran in the early hours of Friday (June 13). Influenced by this news, international oil prices surged significantly, with the main Brent crude oil futures contract rising by 7% to $78.53 per barrel at one point, the highest level since January this year. Shortly before the news was released, the Islamic Republic News Agency of Iran reported that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned Israel's attack on Iran that day and stated that Iran would take a legitimate and forceful response. These statements led market participants to worry that the situation might escalate further, potentially affecting energy infrastructure in Iran and its neighboring countries, and even leading to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in the day, JPMorgan Chase wrote in a report that if a larger-scale conflict broke out in the Middle East, leading to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil market could face severe supply disruptions. JPMorgan Chase believed that under extreme geopolitical circumstances, international oil prices could nearly double, rising to levels between $120 and $130. "Oil prices have surged significantly... and future movements will largely depend on whether Iran repeats the 2019 playbook of attacking tankers, pipelines, and critical energy infrastructure," Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a report. In September 2019, Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a drone attack on Saudi Aramco's oil processing facilities in Abqaiq, disrupting 5.7 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabia's capacity and causing severe market volatility. There are concerns that a similar "Abqaiq incident" could recur.

SMM News on June 6: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals collectively rose. SHFE copper and SHFE tin both surged over 1%, with SHFE copper up 1.04% and SHFE tin up 1.79%. The remaining metals all rose less than 1%, while the main alumina contract fell 2.91%, recording two consecutive days of decline. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose 0.23%, the main silicon metal contract rose 2.1%, and the main polysilicon contract rose 0.35%. The main European container shipping contract fell 4.35%. The ferrous metals series generally rose, with only stainless steel declining by 0.16%. Iron ore rose 0.86%, rebar rose 0.57%, and HRC rose 0.55%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose 3.18%, and coke rose 0.67%. In the overseas market, as of 15:08, overseas market base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.09%, LME lead rose 0.58%, and LME zinc rose 0.54%. The remaining metals all dropped slightly. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:08, COMEX gold rose 0.26%, and COMEX silver rose 1.38%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.15%, and SHFE silver rose 4.49%. The SHFE silver price surged to a record high of 8,855 yuan/kg during the session, marking a new all-time high since its listing. 》8,834! SHFE silver hits new high since listing! Precious metals sector rises over 3%, with Hunan Silver hitting daily limit [SMM Flash News] Market conditions as of 15:08 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [China's Warehousing Index for May was 50.5%, Operating in Expansion Territory for 7 Consecutive Months] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released China's warehousing index for May today (the 6th). The data changes indicated that warehousing business activities were active, demand maintained growth, and the warehousing industry maintained a stable and improving operational trend. China's warehousing index for May was 50.5%, pulling back 0.2 percentage points MoM, and operating in expansion territory for seven consecutive months. [Cailian Press C50 Wind Vane Index Survey: New Social Financing in May May Increase YoY, M2 YoY Growth Rate Expected to Continue Rebounding] The latest results of Cailian Press's "C50 Wind Vane Index" showed that the median forecast of market institutions for new RMB loans in May was 600 billion yuan, a decrease of 350 billion yuan YoY. The median forecast for new social financing in May was 2.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 260 billion yuan YoY. Meanwhile, the market expects that with improved liquidity and a low base effect, the M2 YoY growth rate in May may continue to rebound. In terms of prices, the CPI in May may remain relatively stable, while the decline in PPI may continue to widen. On a YoY basis, the median forecast for CPI YoY growth rate in May by market institutions was -0.2%, and the median forecast for PPI YoY growth rate in May was -3.3%. (Cailian Press) ► The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market on June 6 was 7.1845 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:08, the US dollar index rose 0.14% to 98.89. US economic data has repeatedly fallen short of expectations, leading to increased expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts in H2. The number of initial jobless claims in the US, seasonally adjusted, for the week ending May 31 was 247,000, significantly higher than the expected 235,000, reaching the highest level since the week ending October 5 last year. The number of continuing jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 24 was 1.904 million, slightly lower than the previous week, remaining above 1.9 million for the second consecutive week. Federal Reserve Governor Cook said on Thursday that she supports maintaining US short-term borrowing costs at the current "moderately restrictive" level as long as the threat of tariffs driving up inflation persists. Kansas City Fed President Schmid said that while the extent to which tariffs will drag on economic growth and employment remains unclear, he is more concerned about the short-term impact of tariffs on inflation. Macro side: [Global manufacturing PMI below 50% for three consecutive months, global economy hovering at low levels] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the global manufacturing PMI for May today (6th). The global manufacturing PMI for May was 49.2%, up 0.1 percentage point MoM, remaining below 50% for three consecutive months. By region, the manufacturing PMI for the Americas in May was 48.4%, unchanged from the previous month and below 49% for three consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing sector in the Americas continues to be in contraction territory. From the data of major countries, the manufacturing PMI for the US in May was 48.5%, down 0.2 percentage point MoM, declining MoM for four consecutive months. The data changes indicate that under the influence of US tariff hikes, the US manufacturing sector continues to weaken. Today, data such as Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial production MoM for April, Germany's working-day adjusted industrial production YoY for April, Germany's seasonally adjusted exports MoM for April, France's trade balance for April, the final value of the eurozone's seasonally adjusted QoQ GDP growth rate for Q1, the final value of the eurozone's seasonally adjusted YoY GDP growth rate for Q1, the eurozone's retail sales MoM for April, the eurozone's retail sales YoY for April, Canada's leading indicators MoM for May, the seasonally adjusted change in US non-farm payrolls for May, the US average hourly earnings YoY for May, the change in US private non-farm payrolls for May, the US labor force participation rate for May, the seasonally adjusted change in US manufacturing employment for May, the US unemployment rate for May, the change in Canadian employment for May, and the Canadian unemployment rate for May will be released. In addition, it is noteworthy that Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler delivered a speech at the Economic Club of New York, and Patrick Harker, the 2026 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, spoke about the economic outlook. Crude oil: As of 15:08, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with WTI crude down 0.24% and Brent crude down 0.18%. After two consecutive weeks of decline, both benchmark crude oils are expected to record weekly gains this week. According to a report by Xinhua News Agency, on the evening of June 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a scheduled phone call with US President Donald Trump. The two heads of state agreed that their respective teams should continue to implement the Geneva consensus and hold a new round of talks as soon as possible. This has deepened the market's optimistic expectations for economic growth and increased oil demand. Canadian Minister of Industry Mélanie Joly stated that Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump are in direct communication. News related to tariff negotiations, as well as data showing the impact of trade uncertainties and US tariffs on the global economy, continue to influence oil price trends. Analysts from BMI, a research arm of Fitch, said in a report on Friday, "The US may increase sanctions on Venezuela to limit its crude oil exports, and the Israel-Palestine situation also poses an upside risk to oil prices. However, weakening oil demand and increased supply from OPEC and non-OPEC producers will deepen the downward pressure on oil prices in the coming quarters." Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has cut the price of its crude oil for Asian buyers in July to the lowest level in nearly two months, but the reduction was smaller than expected. This follows an agreement by eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries to increase July production by 411,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia has been pushing for a larger production increase as part of a broader strategy to regain market share and discipline OPEC+ members whose production exceeds their quotas. (Webstock Inc.) SMM Daily Review ► The off-season in June starts with sluggish demand and high stainless steel inventory, with weak trading activity. [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] ► The eurozone's interest rate cut has driven a new upward trend in silver prices, but downstream demand for spot silver remains weak, with limited just-in-time procurement and sluggish trading in the spot market. [SMM Daily Review] SMM Weekly Review ► As the contract rollover approaches, Shanghai spot copper prices are stuck at parity, with caution advised against a further widening of the price spread between futures contracts. [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper Weekly Review] ► Post-holiday, downstream procurement enthusiasm remains weak, and spot prices are in the doldrums. [SMM SiMn Weekly Review] ► The operating rate of copper wire and cable enterprises continues to decline, with gradually weakening downstream demand. [SMM Wire and Cable Market Weekly Review]