The essence of this supply crunch is a "three-layered squeeze": Layer 1: Physical cutoff – the Hormuz blockade severed Middle Eastern supply, halting nearly half of global seaborne trade. Layer 2: Policy lockdown – overlapping export bans from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey blocked alternative supply sources, further tightening global tradable volumes. Layer 3: Capacity and inventory collapse – war-damaged Middle Eastern production facilities are slow to restart.

SMM June 16 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME tin led the gains with a 2.54% increase, while SHFE tin rose 1.52%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.8%, and LME aluminum dropped 4.52%, with the rest of the metals posting % changes within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 1.5%, and cast aluminum main contract declined 1.41%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally fell. Iron ore rose 0.39%, hot-rolled coil edged up 0.18%, and stainless steel gained 1.72%, while declines for the remaining metals were relatively small. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.7% and coke dipped 0.36%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 2.18% and COMEX silver jumped 3.07%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 1.77% and SHFE silver climbed 2.49%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM on June 16: Macro Front Domestically: [NDRC and other departments: Launch a three-year action plan targeting energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades in key sectors] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments decided to organize and implement a three-year action plan targeting energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades in key sectors including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It was mentioned that these key industries account for large-scale, high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them the top priority for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting in 2026, the plan will focus on nine sectors—steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power—to fully implement energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades over three years, driving enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency levels as much as possible and significantly improve the industry's green, low-carbon development. Starting in 2028, the implementation scope is to be further expanded based on actual conditions, with additional sectors advanced progressively, and various regions can proceed in an orderly manner ahead of schedule in line with work needs. [PBOC's reverse repo delivers a net injection of 206.5 billion yuan today] The People's Bank of China conducted 425 billion yuan in seven-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 218.5 billion yuan in reverse repo matured. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index edged down 0.11% to 99.68. US asset manager PGIM holds a fringe view that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year to cool an overheating economy, before reversing the hikes in 2027. The firm had forecast rate cuts this year as recently as April. PGIM stated the US economy is "exceptionally strong," and persistently sticky inflation requires a new approach. Given this backdrop, and with the Fed having missed its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects three rate hikes this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. "The rate hikes would be politically palatable for Warsh if they are characterized as 'preventive' measures to address supply-side inflation and the recent gyrations in long-term Treasuries," PGIM said. However, the firm noted it expects the Fed "to reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and one further cut in 2028, taking the terminal rate to 3.375%—below the current rate and likely close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said the oil price pullback following the US-Iran agreement announcement saw the Treasury market strengthen, easing pressure on the Fed to hike rates this year. "Even before the ceasefire deal, as oil prices were coming down, the two-year yield was still rising because markets were pricing in a near-100% probability of a December hike," Falconio said. "Now what's happening is oil prices are falling and markets are unwinding those rate-hike expectations. As a result, the two-year yield is starting to decline." New Fed Chairman Warsh will preside over his first interest rate decision this week. After the recent surge in crude oil prices reignited inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been growing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. However, she still believes the Fed's next move will be a cut, occurring in 2027. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of cumulative 25bp of cuts. For July, the probability of holding rates unchanged is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 7.4%, and the probability of cumulative 25bp of cuts is 1.4%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data Front: Data to be released today include China's May total retail sales YoY, China's May value-added of industrial output above designated size YoY, the US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending May 30, US May annualized housing starts, US May building permits, US May import price index MoM, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision as of June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, and the Bank of Japan's target rate as of June 16. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 4.38% and Brent crude down 4.55%. The US and Iran simultaneously announced a ceasefire memorandum of understanding was reached, with Trump authorizing a "free and open" Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. As the Trump administration nears completion of its plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude oil supply has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) on June 15, the US SPR, established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s, has dropped to a near-historic low of approximately 340 million barrels. (From Wallstreetcn APP) According to local news from Iran on the 16th, three oil tankers and two ships carrying essential Iranian goods have breached the US-imposed naval blockade. Separate reports indicated that multiple Iranian vessels successfully transited the blocked area. According to vessel-tracking data, an Iranian Very Large Crude Carrier was heading from international waters toward an Iranian port and had passed the blockade zone. A ship carrying livestock feed had also crossed the blockade and was en route to Iran. Additionally, another Iranian oil tanker fully loaded with crude has passed through the Gulf of Oman and the blockade line, heading to its export destination. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP)

Today HRC futures held up well, with the most-traded contract settling at 3,397, up 0.68%. In the spot market, spot HRC offers rose 10-20 yuan/mt in many regions, while cold galvanized prices remained largely stable, and overall transaction performance was moderate. In news, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other authorities issued a notice on launching a three-year campaign to promote energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation in key industries. Starting from 2026, focusing on nine industries including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal power, comprehensive transformation will be carried out over three years; attention will be paid to subsequent implementation and progress. Outside China, Pakistan’s prime minister said on the 15th local time that after intensive negotiations, the US and Iran had reached a peace agreement, and Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would be fully opened. On the fundamentals, HRC inventory is expected to continue destocking this week, with limited accumulation of fundamentals. Considering the overall weakening demand during the off-season, steel prices lack self-driving force. In the short term, they are expected to hold up well, following raw material prices. Attention needs to be paid to the changing Middle East situation and its impact on future export orders.

SMM June 15 News: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals moved higher across the board. SHFE copper rose 1.35%, SHFE tin rose 4.35%. SHFE nickel rose 1.27%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.31%, SHFE zinc rose 2.37%, SHFE lead rose 1.21%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.67%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged lower. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.8%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.67%. Ferrous metals rose broadly, with iron ore up 0.39%, rebar up 0.41%, hot-rolled coil up 0.5%, and stainless steel up 1.54%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.97%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.06%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:38, LME metals nearly all rose. LME copper rose 0.89%, LME aluminum fell 0.17%, LME lead rose 0.56%, LME zinc rose 0.85%, LME tin rose 2.35%, LME nickel rose 1.12%. Precious metals: As of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 2.47%, COMEX silver rose 3.52%. Domestic precious metals: The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 4.58%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 7.93%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.67%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.36%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe route container shipping futures contract fell 3.44% to 3,773.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 15, some futures midday market quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, mainstream transaction prices for #0 zinc were concentrated at 24,650-24,885 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream transactions were at 24,740-24,945 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transactions were at 24,580-24,815 yuan/mt. In early trading, market quotes against SMM’s average price were at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt, with no quotes against the futures price yet... Macro Front Domestic: [NDRC and Other Departments: Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Key Industries’ Energy-Saving and Carbon-Reducing Transformation] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments have decided to organize a three-year campaign for energy-saving and carbon-reducing transformation in key industries, including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It was mentioned that key industries have large-scale and high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them the top priority for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting from 2026, nine key industries—steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power—will be the focus of a three-year initiative to fully implement energy-saving and carbon-reduction retrofits. This aims to drive enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency levels as much as possible, leading to a marked improvement in the green and low-carbon development of these industries. Beginning in 2028, the scope of implementation will be further expanded based on practical circumstances, with additional industries advanced in a phased manner. All regions may proceed in an orderly fashion as needed, based on local conditions. [PBOC Reverse Repo Injects Net 206.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted a 425 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 218.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.27% to 99.53. Easing tensions in the Middle East led the market to scale back bets on US Fed interest rate hikes. Interest rate swaps showed traders now see a roughly 60% probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points before December, down from about 80% last Friday. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, according to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. The probability of holding rates steady through July is 91.3%, with a 7.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 1.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: US consumer confidence rebounded for the first time in four months in early June, as lower gasoline prices offered some relief to Americans grappling with surging inflation. A survey released Friday showed the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for June rose to 48.9 from May's record low of 44.8. Economists had expected a modest recovery to 46. Consumers anticipated prices would rise 4.6% YoY over the next year, down from 4.8% in May. They also projected costs would climb at an average annual rate of 3.4% over the next five to ten years, also below the prior month's expected increase. Although gasoline prices remain higher than pre-Ukraine war levels, the decline in recent weeks has lessened pessimism about personal finances among Americans. The report showed a notable improvement in sentiment among lower-income consumers, who typically allocate a larger share of their budgets to fuel costs. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the Iran war and the resulting wave of inflation, overall economic sentiment remains at historically depressed levels. Survey Director Joanne Hsu stated, "While there has been some relief, gasoline prices still have a significant impact on consumers. As a result, current price levels remain broadly unacceptable to consumers and have dampened their view of the economy." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Switzerland’s May Consumer Confidence Index, the Eurozone’s April seasonally adjusted trade balance, Eurozone April industrial production MoM, Canada April wholesale sales MoM, the US June Empire State manufacturing index, US May industrial production MoM, the US June NAHB Housing Market Index, and China’s May total electricity consumption YoY (to be determined), among other data. Attention should also be paid to: ECB President Lagarde’s speech; the National Energy Administration’s release of total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; and the opening of the G7 summit, which runs through June 17. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell sharply, with WTI down 5.58% and Brent down 4.76%. A US-Iran peace agreement is expected to be signed soon, easing market concerns over crude supply and putting oil prices under pressure. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump stated on social media on the 14th that with the signing of the US-Iran agreement on the 19th, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened for mine-clearing operations. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister also indicated that an immediate and permanent halt to military operations on multiple fronts, including in Lebanon, will be announced starting tonight. Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the US nationwide average gasoline price fell below $4 per gallon on Sunday for the first time since April 20. He expects that in an optimistic scenario, the nationwide average price could fall below $3.75 per gallon before July 4, but the hurricane season could be a major variable in the latter half of the summer. " The coming weeks are critical—any major misstep could significantly impact the subsequent oil price trajectory." (Wall Street CN) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China's alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW, and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW. This week, Haozheng Hydrogen Energy successfully completed all tests on an alkaline hydrogen production electrolyzer, with all performance indicators meeting standards, and it was officially shipped to the client's project site. Eve Hydrogen Energy reached an important delivery period, as its 100 Nm³/h centralized hydrogen production system successfully passed all factory detection tests and was officially dispatched to Shandong. Project-related developments: Guangdong Qingneng New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The fuel cell and electrolysis hydrogen production system project completed filing. The project is located at Building D3, No. 1 Xiangda Road, Dancao Logistics Center, Dancao Town, Nanhai District, Foshan City, with a total investment of 200 million yuan, to be constructed by Guangdong Qingneng New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. as the construction entity. On one hand, the project advances the expansion of fuel cell-related businesses at the headquarters base, deploying multiple production lines for new-type compression-molded graphite plates, supporting stacks, and air-cooled fuel cells. On the other hand, it simultaneously builds AEM electrolysis hydrogen production lines, developing core material capacity for membrane electrode assemblies, bipolar plates, and other components. State Administration for Market Regulation: A re-tender announcement was issued for the research project on safety-critical standards for hydrogen refueling station infrastructure, with a project budget and maximum price cap both set at 1.1 million yuan (China Government Procurement Network). This procurement will focus on developing two national standards: liquid hydrogen vehicle refueling protocols and rubber O-rings for high-pressure hydrogen equipment, and plans to produce draft versions for public comment or approval (China Government Procurement Network). The project performance period runs until December 31, 2026, and consortium bids are not accepted (China Government Procurement Network). This initiative will fill the gaps in relevant standards in China, strengthen the intrinsic safety assurance of hydrogen refueling stations, and facilitate the standardized and orderly development of the hydrogen energy industry. China Risun Group Limited: China's first domestically developed 5 mt/day hydrogen expansion refrigeration hydrogen liquefaction project was successfully completed and put into operation at Risun Group's Dingzhou Park. The equipment used in this project is China's first large-scale liquefaction equipment adopting the hydrogen Claude cycle process with 100% localisation of core components. It successfully overcame multiple key industry technologies, with overall performance benchmarked against international first-class standards. The unit energy consumption of the core liquefaction system was as low as 11.84 kWh/kg, representing a reduction of over 40% compared to traditional processes, effectively lowering liquid hydrogen production costs and supporting the autonomous development of China's hydrogen energy industry. Heilongjiang Coal Chemical Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. : Zhongmei Longhua held discussions with the government of Ar Horqin Banner, Chifeng City. Both parties focused on existing new energy cooperation projects, advancing computing power industry deployment and coordinating the construction of green energy transmission corridors. Previously, the two parties had signed a 12.8 billion yuan agreement for a 2GW new energy base and an annual 500,000 mt biomass pellet project, covering 1.8GW wind power and 0.2GW PV. During this round of discussions, they finalised an additional computing power synergy project, planning to build a thousand-P-level intelligent computing power centre leveraging a green electricity direct supply model to revitalise clean energy resources. In addition, the two parties will also fully align with the Chifeng-to-Jinzhou hydrogen-ammonia-methanol transmission pipeline, deploying green hydrogen, green ammonia, and green methanol capacity to build an integrated green energy industry chain encompassing green electricity production, energy conversion, and cross-provincial transmission. Jiyuan (Siping) Green Energy Co., Ltd. : The results of SPIC's 87th batch of centralised tenders for 2025 were announced. Sungrow Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. won the bid for the alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment for the Jidian Co., Ltd. Lishu Wind and Solar Power Green Hydrogen Production Coupled with Biomass Green Methanol Project (Section II). Located in Siping, Jilin, the project has a hydrogen production capacity of 30,000 Nm³/h and plans to commence construction in August 2025, with a total construction period of 22 months, implemented in two sections. Upon completion, the project will promote the commercialisation of green hydrogen coupled with biomass for green methanol production, facilitating the integrated development of new energy and chemical industries. China Coal Ordos Energy Chemical Co., Ltd.: The 3,000 Nm³/h electrolysis hydrogen production unit for China Coal Ordos Energy Chemical's 100,000 mt "Liquid Sunshine" project, manufactured by China First Heavy Industries Nuclear Power and Petrochemical, was successfully shipped from the Dalian Mianhua Island nuclear power equipment manufacturing base, advancing the "Liquid Sunshine" project and empowering the integrated development of hydrogen energy and new energy. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co., Ltd.: The completion ceremony of the green electricity hydrogen production and natural gas hydrogen blending comprehensive testing platform was held at Guofu Hydrogen Energy's Zhangjiagang base. Jointly developed by Guofu Hydrogen Energy and Towngas Group, the platform conducts green electricity hydrogen production utilising local 52,000 m² rooftop distributed PV and alkaline electrolysers. Employing a follow-up flow gas mixing process, it can achieve precise natural gas hydrogen blending at ratios from 0% to 30%, with a maximum hydrogen blending volume of 100 standard m³ per hour. The platform integrates four modules — hydrogen production, gas mixing, combustion, and data acquisition — focusing on hydrogen blending condition verification, energy efficiency assessment, and cost estimation research. With significant environmental protection benefits, it can reduce CO₂ emissions by 1,144 mt in the first year. The project is expected to consume 2.16 million kWh of green electricity over its full lifecycle, facilitating clean energy integration and low-carbon development. SPIC: The announcement of candidate winners for the 23rd batch of centralised tenders for 2026 — the EPC general contracting for the SPIC Green Energy Da'an Gaseous Hydrogen Storage Technical Renovation Project — was released. According to the announcement, the first candidate winner was China Wuhuan Engineering Co., Ltd. with a bid price of 55.2 million yuan, and the second candidate winner was China Petroleum and Natural Gas First Construction Co., Ltd. with a bid price of 71.39 million yuan. The project is located in the Jilin Western (Da'an) Clean Energy Chemical Industry Park in Liangjiazi Town, Da'an City, Baicheng City, Jilin Province. It involves the construction of 6 units of 1850m³ spherical tanks and 1 unit of 8000Nm³/h compressor, with a total hydrogen storage capacity of 177,600Nm³ and an effective hydrogen storage capacity of 144,300Nm³. The tender scope covers the design, supply, construction, commissioning, and all work within the warranty period for the gaseous hydrogen storage complete equipment and auxiliary facilities. Upon completion, it will enhance local green hydrogen storage and supply capability, facilitating the large-scale development of the hydrogen energy industry. Hainan Shenneng Materials Co., Ltd. : The announcement of successful bid candidates for the commissioning, trial operation, and demonstration operation services of the Hainan New Energy Offshore Wind Power Hydrogen Production Comprehensive Utilization Key Technology R&D and Engineering Demonstration Project was released. The bid inviter is Hainan Shenneng Materials Co., Ltd. The announcement shows that the first successful bid candidate is Sinochem Second Construction Group Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 5.83 million yuan; the second successful bid candidate is China Petrochemical Engineering Construction Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 5.875 million yuan. The project aims to implement the construction requirements of Hainan's clean energy priority development demonstration zone, focusing on offshore wind power hydrogen production and comprehensive utilization technology research. It will achieve breakthroughs in key technologies such as floating platform hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and transportation, and hydrogen-to-ammonia/methanol, develop core equipment and an offshore wind power hydrogen production comprehensive utilization floating platform, providing technical and engineering support for Hainan's clean energy island construction and large-scale offshore hydrogen production. Policy Review 1. Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration on Matters Related to the Orderly Promotion of Multi-user Green Electricity Direct Connection Development. The document states that support is given to new energy power generation projects that have not yet commenced power grid connection engineering construction, as well as new energy power generation projects that cannot be connected to grid due to reasons such as new energy consumption constraints, to carry out multi-user green electricity direct connection after completing the corresponding change procedures. Distributed PV may participate in multi-user green electricity direct connection through centralized current collection. Priority support is given to computing facilities, green hydrogen-ammonia-methanol and other emerging industries and future industries to carry out green electricity direct connection. Projects shall meet national industrial policy requirements, and enterprises are strictly prohibited from conducting illegal activities through green electricity direct connection. 2. Notice of the Hubei Provincial Department of Transportation on Implementing Toll Subsidy Policies for Hydrogen Energy Vehicles Traveling on Hubei Provincial Expressways. The document states that hydrogen energy vehicles (with hydrogen fuel cell as the sole power source) that legally transport cargo, are equipped with and normally use ETC, and travel on expressways within Hubei Province (with entry and exit records and inter-station travel routes all within Hubei Province) shall be exempted from expressway tolls. The tolls exempted by relevant expressway operation and management entities shall be fully subsidized by provincial fiscal funds. 3. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice of the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Organizing and Carrying Out Industrial Energy Conservation Supervision Work in 2026." It mentioned that energy efficiency supervision will be conducted in key industry sectors. In accordance with mandatory energy consumption quota standards for relevant industries, as well as requirements such as energy efficiency benchmark and baseline levels, energy conservation supervision will be carried out on enterprises in industries including steel, synthetic ammonia, oil refining, ethylene, caustic soda, soda ash, and methanol, with the principle of achieving full coverage of energy conservation supervision for enterprises in the above industries within the region during 2026–2027 (full coverage of calcium carbide-based PVC producers shall be achieved in 2026). Energy efficiency supervision of key industry chains will also be conducted. In accordance with mandatory energy consumption quota standards for relevant industries, mandatory energy efficiency standards for products and equipment, and other requirements, focusing on key industry chains such as PV modules, wind turbines, EV and ESS batteries, and water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, special energy conservation supervision will be carried out on key enterprises in segments including raw materials, production and manufacturing, and terminal assembly, with a focus on verifying enterprise energy consumption in production processes and energy efficiency of major products. Enterprise Updates Guohong Hydrogen Energy Technology (Jiaxing) Co., Ltd. : China's first inland 64-TEU hydrogen fuel cell-powered container ship "Dongfang Hydrogen Port" set sail from Zhapu Port Area of Jiaxing Port and was officially put into operation. It is reported that Guohong Hydrogen Energy provided two sets of independently developed Honghan C240 marine hydrogen fuel cell systems. This is currently the highest-power hydrogen fuel cell system in China and the first to be applied to ships (single-unit rated power of 240 kW). Yuchai Xinlan (Jiangsu) Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Yuchai Hydrogen Energy General Manager Lu Guoquan and Zhongyuan Electric Laboratory Deputy Director Zhang Xueshen signed a strategic cooperation agreement on behalf of their respective parties. According to the agreement, both parties will leverage their respective technological advantages and resources to establish a long-term, stable, and in-depth strategic partnership, focusing on comprehensive cooperation in four core areas: water electrolysis for hydrogen production, hydrogen fuel internal combustion engines, green energy management, and hydrogen energy demonstration projects. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co., Ltd.: Joining hands with Three Gorges Zhongyi, Jiaosheng New Energy, and other shipping industry chain partners, the company held the "Zero-Carbon Yangtze, Green Shipping" industrial ecosystem strategy launch conference. At the conference, Guofu Hydrogen Energy officially released its "River-Sea Strategy Plan" and held the rollout ceremony of its first 80-cubic-meter marine LNG storage tank, marking its official entry from the land-based hydrogen energy equipment sector into the green shipping track. According to the plan, Guofu Hydrogen Energy will promote the improvement of the shipping ecosystem closed loop, attract industry partners to co-build the ecosystem, and plans to complete the leap from product finalization and demonstration applications to ecosystem formation within three years, facilitating the zero-carbon transformation of Yangtze River shipping. Haida Qingneng Ship (Dalian) Co., Ltd. : China's first inland waterway 64-TEU hydrogen fuel cell-powered container ship, the "Dongfang Hydrogen Port," successfully set sail from Jiaxing Port and was put into operation on a designated route, achieving a new breakthrough in the application of hydrogen fuel cell vessels on inland waterways. Designed by Haida Qingneng Ship with a full set of hydrogen power systems, the vessel has a cargo capacity of approximately 1,450 mt and a driving range of 380 kilometers. It is equipped with a large power hydrogen fuel cell system, achieving zero carbon emissions throughout the entire voyage, and has also completed the integrated integration of large-capacity hydrogen storage and control systems. The core technologies were jointly developed by the enterprise and Dalian Maritime University. This commissioning also fully demonstrated that hydrogen-powered vessel propulsion systems are mature and reliable, promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of inland waterway shipping. PetroChina Company Limited Shenzhen New Energy Research Institute : PetroChina's first 2,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolysis water-to-hydrogen system successfully completed its initial test run, with all parameters meeting design requirements. The overall technical level ranks among the industry's best, and the hydrogen produced has a purity as high as 99.9995%. The system was led by PetroChina Shenzhen Institute and jointly developed by multiple enterprises, integrating large-capacity electrolyzers with high-efficiency separation and purification equipment. Actual testing showed that the high-grade hydrogen can meet the usage requirements of multiple industries. The system will subsequently be connected to the Dushanzi Petrochemical hydrogen pipeline network for production application, helping the petrochemical industry accelerate its green and low-carbon transformation. China Huadian Engineering Corporation Limited : Its top ten new technologies and new products of 2026 were unveiled in Beijing, accelerating the expansion of its technological achievement portfolio and boosting the development of new quality productive forces. Among them, the independently developed "Hua'an" U1000 skid-mounted green ammonia synthesis unit was officially launched, overcoming key technologies for distributed green ammonia production. The unit focuses on compact skid-mounted and modular design, addressing the pain points of traditional ammonia synthesis units such as high investment, long construction cycles, and difficulty in adapting to wind and solar power fluctuations. It features four major advantages: low temperature and low pressure, flexible adaptation, intelligent integration, and rapid deployment, filling the technological gap in small-scale green ammonia equipment in China. It integrates multiple innovations: equipped with a low-temperature and low-pressure catalyst jointly developed with the Institute of Process Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, adopting a proprietary patented dual-tower reactor, and equipped with self-developed "source-grid-hydrogen-ammonia" full-chain flexible control technology, enabling wide-load regulation and adaptation to wind and solar power fluctuations. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing a Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity approaching that of platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint / Technical Specifications 1 The team led by Academician Chen Zhongwei and Associate Researcher Zhang Meng from the National Key Laboratory of Catalysis for Energy Conversion at the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics developed a high specific power cathode-closed air-cooled stack technology, which passed the scientific and technological achievement evaluation by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation. This technology effectively resolves the industry contradiction between water retention and oxygen mass transfer in air-cooled fuel cells, addressing technical challenges such as low-humidity performance degradation, carbon corrosion, membrane drying and flooding, and high-power thermal management. 2 Two group standards on hydrogen production by water electrolysis were officially released and implemented, namely the "Safety Technical Specification for Hydrogen Production by Water Electrolysis" and the "Calculation Method for Economic Operation Indicators of Hydrogen Production by Water Electrolysis." 3 Petronor collaborated with H2SITE to advance membrane technology for hydrogen production, improving high-purity hydrogen supply and low-carbon efficiency in refining. 4 Dalian University of Technology designed an electron pump catalyst with an asymmetric photo-responsive structure that maintains the asymmetry of electron distribution. 5 A research team from the School of Electrical Engineering and the National Key Laboratory of Electrical Materials and Electrical Insulation at Xi'an Jiaotong University successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis.

SMM May 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw a broad sell-off across both domestic and overseas metals markets, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline at 4.03%, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum -2.36%, SHFE tin -2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead -1.39%, LME zinc -1.35%, LME nickel -1.9%, SHFE copper -1.29%, SHFE nickel -1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead -0.6%, SHFE zinc -0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Last Friday's overnight session saw broad declines in ferrous metals. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil -0.63%, rebar -0.62%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke fell 1.32%. Last Friday's overnight session for precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly driven by rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar with no resolution in sight, while the US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference and provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed would raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation would force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next January, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have stemmed from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, consumer spending had not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas due to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund amount increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated that based on internal data analysis, "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger point is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: This week, China will release data including April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, the one-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, April pending home sales index MoM, April annualized housing starts, April building permits, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, May NAHB Housing Market Index, May one-year inflation expectations final, and April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including March three-month ILO unemployment rate, April unemployment rate, April claimant count, April CPI MoM, April Retail Price Index MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May Services PMI preliminary, May CBI Industrial Orders balance, May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, April public sector net borrowing, and April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including April PPI MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Q1 final non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and May IFO Business Climate Index. The eurozone will release data including March seasonally adjusted trade balance, April CPI YoY final, April CPI MoM final, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, March seasonally adjusted current account, and May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including April CPI MoM and March retail sales MoM. Japan's April core CPI YoY, France's May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage remained unresolved, and both benchmarks rose. WTI gained 4.44% and Brent gained 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73% and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is pushing up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies holding leases in the reserve, such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, and accelerate government review of projects like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increases in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)