Inter-product price spreads are a segment of the rebar spread system characterized by complex logic and abundant trading opportunities. Unlike the spot-futures price spread, which reflects the spot-futures structure, and calendar spreads, which reflect near- and far-term expectations, the core of inter-product price spreads lies in macroeconomic structural adjustment and profit distribution across the industry chain. From the perspective of the industry chain, inter-product price spreads for long steel products are mainly concentrated in the following four areas:

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2605 contract opened at 84,640 yuan/mt. In early trading, the center of copper prices bottomed at 84,620 yuan/mt, then rose to a high of 86,140 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 86,020 yuan/mt, up 1.68%. Open interest stood at 6,205 lots, down 74 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 4,289 lots, up 991 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, the Iranian president said he was willing to end the war, provided that its demands were met and guarantees against further attacks were secured. The US defense secretary said the next few days would determine the direction of the conflict, and Trump planned to end the fighting within two to three weeks; meanwhile, the Iranian foreign minister said there had been no negotiations with the US, though information had been exchanged, and there had been no response yet to the "15-point plan." The current Middle East conflict has somewhat eased, crude oil prices plunged, inflation expectations cooled, and the US dollar index came under pressure and pulled back, all of which were bullish for copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side, imported cargoes have continued to arrive recently, and overall spot availability was relatively ample; demand side, affected by the rebound in copper prices, the market mainly maintained just-in-time procurement during the day. The SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 97,030 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract price of 86,020 yuan/mt, its tax-inclusive price was 97,203 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2605 contract and BC copper was -173 yuan/mt, with the inversion maintained and widening from the previous day.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Initial Signs of Geopolitical Peace Emerge, SHFE Tin Prices Rebound Amid Improved Market Sentiment]

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,216/mt and dipped to $12,181.5/mt in early trading. Copper prices then fluctuated upward in center and, near the close, touched a high of $12,420/mt, finally closing at $12,382.5/mt, up 1.64%. Trading volume reached 18,800 lots, and open interest stood at 298,900 lots, an increase of 3,875 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,730 yuan/mt and fluctuated rangebound in early trading, hitting a low of 95,550 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated upward all the way to a high of 96,780 yuan/mt, finally closing at 96,760 yuan/mt, up 1.26%. Trading volume reached 56,200 lots, and open interest stood at 186,300 lots, an increase of 598 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by increased long positions.

[SHFE Aluminum Night Session Closed Higher, with Geopolitics and Fundamentals Jointly Supporting Aluminum Prices] Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, together with support from expectations of the gradual release of peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

SMM News, March 31 According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of domestic aluminum industry in March 2026 rose 0.5% MoM and fell 5.7% YoY, mainly due to a slight rebound in alumina raw material costs during the period. In March, Middle East production cuts pushed up aluminum prices in and outside China. The SMM A00 monthly average spot price (February 26-March 25) rose 2.9% MoM, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 8,316 yuan/mt. Based on monthly average price calculations, 100% of China’s operating aluminum capacity was profitable in March. From the cost breakdown side: Alumina raw materials : According to SMM data, the monthly average of the SMM alumina index in March was 2,685 yuan/mt (January 26-February 25), up 2.4% MoM. During the month, total operating alumina capacity was basically stable, but the Middle East geopolitical conflict raised ocean freight rates for alumina and bauxite, and domestic alumina costs are expected to move higher. Futures prices drove spot prices higher, lifting the monthly average alumina price. Entering April, the upward momentum in spot alumina prices at month-end March appeared slightly insufficient. Some new projects are expected to come online in April or ramp up operating capacity, but as the base price at the beginning of the month was already at a high level, alumina raw material costs in April are expected to post a slight increase. Auxiliary materials market : In March, both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back, lowering aluminum auxiliary material costs. Entering April, the Middle East geopolitical conflict raised international oil prices, and higher costs continued to push up petroleum coke prices, which in turn supported higher prebaked anode prices. The April prebaked anode tender price at a large aluminum plant in Shandong rose 300 yuan/mt MoM; for aluminum fluoride, prices are also expected to rise significantly in April due to higher raw material costs. Overall, auxiliary material costs are expected to increase significantly in April. Electricity prices : Electricity prices were generally stable in March. Entering April, power prices are expected to remain broadly stable, and aluminum power costs are expected to hold steady. Overall, in March 2026, SMM expected the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of dometstic aluminum industry to rise slightly; in April, it was expected to increase significantly MoM, with the average at around 16,150-16,550 yuan/mt.