In Q1 2026, China's secondary lead market navigated through turbulence amid holiday effects and industry difficulties. Following a sharp production decline of over 140,000 mt in February, the market saw a post-holiday recovery rebound in March, but the recovery fell short of expectations, with the industry mired in the dual constraints of "profit pressure and tight raw material supply." Looking ahead to April, although large smelters are expected to resume production in a concentrated manner……

According to the latest release from the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics showed that China’s SiMn exports were 2,539.52 mt in January 2026, down 50.55% MoM and down 31.84% YoY. China’s SiMn imports were 0 mt in January 2026, down 100% MoM and down 100% YoY. By import and export regional structure, SiMn exports were mainly destined for Indonesia.

》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis SMM News on June 25: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2508 contract opened at 20,300 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,360 yuan/mt, a low of 20,240 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,355 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 117,000 lots, and open interest was 254,000 lots. SMM Commentary: On the macro front, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran has eased geopolitical risks, reducing the demand for capital flight, which is short-term bearish for aluminum prices. US Fed Chair Powell's neutral stance, combined with potential expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and pressure from Trump, may boost the economy, providing support for aluminum prices. The PBOC and six other departments jointly issued a document to stimulate consumption, which is bullish for end-user aluminum demand. On the fundamental side, domestic aluminum smelters' operating capacity remains stable, with the proportion of liquid aluminum staying high, and the market supply of casting ingots remains tight. On the demand side, overall, most downstream sectors are in the traditional off-season. Downstream production cuts in central China have been significant, with weak spot transactions and sustained large discounts in the market. The weakening off-season demand in the PV and home appliance sectors cannot be ignored, with a noticeable drop in the operating rates of related sectors. The wire and cable sector has seen a decline in operating rates due to the end of the previous delivery period and high aluminum prices. In terms of inventory, the destocking pace has slowed, and low inventory still supports the futures market. Inventory buildup occurred on Monday this week, and it needs to be observed whether the destocking turning point has officially formed. However, spot premiums/discounts have gradually pulled back. Overall, in the short term, aluminum prices are suppressed by inventory accumulation and geopolitical easing. However, in the medium term, macro policies (such as domestic consumption stimulus and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts) may boost demand. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate downward in the short term, and subsequent focus should be on changes in inventory and demand. Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,894 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,920 yuan/mt, a low of 2,885 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,919 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 233,000 lots, and open interest was 285,000 lots. SMM Commentary: Last week, some alumina refineries completed maintenance and resumed production. Meanwhile, considering ore costs, there were new reports of production cuts. The operating capacity of alumina refineries increased and decreased in parallel. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina refineries decreased by 440,000 mt/year MoM to 88.57 million mt/year last week. Spot alumina supply remained loose, and the total inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by 8,600 mt to 2.655 million mt last week. In the short term, the alumina fundamental side is expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern, and spot alumina prices are expected to drop back slightly. Affected by the easing of overseas geopolitical conflicts, the futures market fluctuated downward yesterday. However, influenced by uncertainties in overseas economic policies, the night session fluctuated upward at one point. Subsequent attention should be paid to the capacity changes of domestic alumina enterprises and their profitability. Today, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy ag2511 futures contract opened at 19,625 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,700 yuan/mt and a low of 19,530 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 19,700 yuan/mt. The trading volume was 3,000 lots, and the open interest was 8,000 lots. SMM Commentary: On Tuesday, the SMM ADC12 price remained stable at 19,900-20,100 yuan/mt. Pressured by the ongoing traditional off-season, demand remained weak, and market transactions were sluggish. The lack of growth in terminal orders constrained the upward movement of ADC12 prices, while the influx of low-priced goods exacerbated market competition. However, the cost side remained relatively firm, providing some support to prices. It is anticipated that under the deepening impact of the off-season, ADC12 prices will remain in the doldrums in the short term. Close attention should be paid to changes in raw material circulation and signs of marginal improvement in demand. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Softening US Economy Coupled with Tense Middle East Situation, Domestic Low Inventory Supports Aluminum Prices to Hold Up Well] Macro side, the softening US economic data and tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East have made the market nervous. US retail sales in May were weaker than expected, but consumer spending remained supported by robust wage growth. Fundamentals side, the operating capacity of domestic primary aluminum remained stable, and the reduction in casting ingot volume has kept domestic aluminum ingot inventory in a state of destocking. Cost side, there are expectations of weaker prices for alumina and auxiliary materials, weakening the cost support for primary aluminum. Demand side, it faces dual pressures from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises will be under pressure in the short term. Overall, the current low inventory and expectations of a higher proportion of liquid aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but the off-season pressure on the demand side limits the upside room. Spot aluminum ingot in major consumption areas may soon face a situation of weak supply and demand, and aluminum prices may hold up well in the short term.

[SMM Commentary on Tin Futures: Supply Faces Off Against Off-Season Demand, SHFE and LME Tin Prices Under Narrow Pressure] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract continued its pattern of being in the doldrums, opening at 264,400 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 265,560 yuan/mt, touching a low of 263,020 yuan/mt, and finally closing at 263,730 yuan/mt, down 0.3% from the previous trading day, with a turnover of 17.375 billion yuan. Market trading activity declined slightly, with the price fluctuation range narrowing to 263,000-265,000 yuan/mt, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified.

[SMM Midday Review of Spot Aluminum: Spot Aluminum Transactions Weaken Significantly, Premiums Pull Back, Market Discounts Improve] Inventory side, according to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data from three locations, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 331,500 mt on June 17, experiencing a destocking of 0.2 mt compared to the previous trading day. In the short term, the relatively low arrival of aluminum ingots and the reduction in inventory are conducive to high spot premiums in the spot market. However, there is a strong fear of high prices in the spot market, with downstream purchase willingness being poor. Transactions are occurring at market discounts. It is expected that spot premiums will show a narrowing trend in the short term.