In H1, the industry showed distinct characteristics: upstream raw material imports experienced a mix of hot and cold trends, while mid-and downstream aluminum processing product exports saw explosive growth. Diverging domestic and overseas demand, shifting overseas manufacturing orders, and changes in the overseas raw material supply landscape are jointly reshaping the trade pattern of China's aluminum industry chain.

In June, China's total magnesium product exports reached 39,400 mt, up 4.8% MoM and 10.9% YoY. Of this, magnesium ingot exports were 22,700 mt, down 5.5% MoM, mainly dragged down by the traditional off-season demand in and outside China. In contrast, magnesium powder and magnesium alloy exports performed strongly, up 21.2% and 33.2% MoM respectively, driven by periodic restocking, downstream stockpiling in advance, and the rapid development of sectors such as lightweight vehicles.

[Magnesium Plant Maintenance Dragged Down Weekly Output, Supply Strong and Demand Weak with Continuous Inventory Buildup] This week, the magnesium ingot market in the main production areas retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, maintenance positives supported prices, but high downstream inventories and fear of high prices suppressed transactions, with some producers offering discounts to sell, putting magnesium prices under pressure and causing them to weaken. Tianjin port FOB prices passively followed the decline in China’s EXW prices, as sluggish demand during the summer break outside China and elevated ocean freight rates suppressed deals. Dolomite prices were stable, providing limited cost support. Magnesium powder and magnesium alloy prices first declined and then stabilized, following the trend of magnesium ingot. Downstream sectors such as steel mill desulfurization, titanium sponge, and die-casting enterprises entered the off-season, with transactions remaining sluggish, leaving the oversupply pattern unchanged. In the short term, the magnesium market will continue to move sideways.

7.17 SMM Alumina Morning Comment Futures: On the night of July 17, the most-traded alumina 2609 night session futures contract opened at 2,681 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 2,694 yuan/mt, fell to a low of 2,675 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,691 yuan/mt, down 16 yuan/mt, or 0.59%, from the previous trading day’s settlement price. Trading volume was 82,600 lots, open interest stood at 375,800 lots, up 8,623 lots day on day. From a technical perspective, the price is trading below the MA5 (2,691.80) and also below the MA10 (2,703.10), MA30 (2,795.43), and MA60 (2,804.62), with the medium- and long-term moving averages maintaining a bearish stance. On the MACD front, the DIF (-39.15) is below the DEA (-33.91), and the MACD histogram recorded -10.48, showing that bearish momentum still dominates. However, the negative histogram continued to narrow from the previous trading day, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening. Overnight, alumina futures drifted lower and again lost the 2,700 yuan/mt level, accompanied by an increase in open interest, signaling that bears are still entering the market. In the short term, futures are likely to remain weak. Attention should be paid to support near 2,660 yuan/mt and changes in capital flows. Ore: As of July 16, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $70.36/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite FOB average price was $39/mt, flat; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $70.5/mt, flat; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $64/mt, flat; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $58.5/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $52/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $62.5/mt, flat; the Ghana bauxite CIF average price was $78/mt, flat; and the bauxite CFR Turkey price was $78.5/mt, flat. Overall, on the domestic ore front, mines in Shanxi, Henan, and other areas are gradually resuming operations. Alumina refineries continue to push for lower ore purchase prices, and domestic ore prices remain generally in the doldrums. On the imported ore front, ocean freight rates stay high, and ongoing policy uncertainty in Guinea provides some support for ore prices. However, China’s alumina refineries still hold high raw material inventories, limiting their buying interest, and price negotiations in the market persist. Imported ore prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to Guinea’s bauxite quota policy and changes in Australia-China ocean freight rates. Spot prices: As of July 16, 2026, the SMM Alumina Index stood at 2,730.17 yuan/mt, down 5.18 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong Alumina Index stood at 2,736.66 yuan/mt, down 7.5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan Alumina Index stood at 2,764.75 yuan/mt, down 4.87 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi Alumina Index stood at 2,772.50 yuan/mt, down 7.22 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou Alumina Index stood at 2,735.04 yuan/mt, down 0.8 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi Alumina Index stood at 2,642.70 yuan/mt, down 3.25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Daily spot-futures spread: According to SMM data, on July 16 the SMM Alumina Index showed a discount of 37.17 yuan/mt to the latest traded price of the most-traded contract as of 11:30. Daily warrant report: On July 16, total registered alumina warrants stood at 276,400 mt, up by 7,483 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 30,908 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; Henan stood at 1,802 mt, unchanged; Guangxi stood at 12,941 mt, unchanged; Gansu stood at 14,403 mt, unchanged; Xinjiang stood at 216,300 mt, up by 7,483 mt from the previous trading day. Markets outside China: As of July 16, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price stood at $328/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Australia-China ocean freight rate stood at $32.35/mt, up $1.2/mt from the previous trading day; the USD/CNY selling rate stood at 6.7837. Based on this calculation, the equivalent domestic mainstream port selling price for seaborne alumina was about 2,842.29 yuan/mt, which was 112.12 yuan/mt above the SMM Alumina Index that day. Summary: China's total alumina inventory edged up MoM, with little overall change. By segment, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters declined, mainly because current spot alumina prices stayed high, prompting some smelters to actively reduce high-priced in-factory inventory and leading to lower raw material stockpiling; in-factory inventory at alumina refineries edged up, as maintenance-related production cuts in Shanxi were offset by production increases in south China, resulting in relatively limited overall changes. At ports, new vessel arrivals gradually added to port inventory; warrant inventory showed a downtrend, affected by invoicing issues and the spot-futures spread, which weakened the willingness to ship to delivery warehouses; in-transit and station inventory accumulated, mainly because warrants gradually expired, converting to spot cargoes, while shipments from Guangxi continued, increasing in-transit cargoes. The operating pattern of alumina is expected to see little change this week. Some enterprises using domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to ore supply issues, but the impact on monthly production will be limited, and overall inventory will remain at current levels. Price side, as the regional alumina mismatch issue gradually eases, the spot price center is expected to pull back, and the subsequent trend will be under pressure. [Data other than public information are all processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

[SMM Weekly Magnesium Review: China Magnesium Market Retreats After Rapid Rise; Foreign Trade Remains Sluggish] This week, the magnesium ingot market in the main producing areas retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, maintenance provided support to quotations, but downstream high inventory and fear of high prices suppressed transactions. Some producers offered discounts to sell, and magnesium prices weakened under pressure. Tianjin port FOB prices followed the decline of domestic EXW prices passively. Outside China, summer break led to weak demand, and high ocean freight rates suppressed transactions. Dolomite prices remained stable, with limited cost support. Magnesium powder and magnesium alloy followed magnesium ingot by falling first and then stabilizing. Downstream steel mill desulfurization, titanium sponge, and die-casting enterprises entered the off-season, with sluggish transactions. The oversupply pattern remained unchanged. In the short term, the magnesium market is expected to continue moving sideways.

SMM, July 16: Domestic Bauxite: Supply disruptions push up domestic ore prices; alumina enterprises' long-term contract purchase prices rise overall Affected by coking coal-related incidents in Shanxi, mining in major domestic bauxite producing areas such as Shanxi and Henan faced some short-term disruptions, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Driven by supply tightening expectations, the domestic ore price center edged higher. Meanwhile, alumina prices remained at relatively high levels, and alumina enterprises' tolerance of rising raw material costs was moderate; in the short term, they mostly passively accepted the current ore prices. As of today, in Shanxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, VAT-exclusive EXW price at crushing plants was around 530-550 yuan/mt; in Henan, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, VAT-exclusive EXW price at crushing plants was around 500-540 yuan/mt; in Guiyang, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 60% alumina content, VAT-inclusive EXW price was 490-540 yuan/mt; in Guangxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content, VAT-exclusive EXW price at crushing plants was 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported Bauxite: Rising international oil prices drove up both mine costs and ocean freight rates, leading to diverging imported bauxite prices According to data as of July 10, weekly port departures of bauxite from major Guinean ports totaled 3.1869 million mt, down 219,400 mt from the previous week, with shipments basically stable. As US-Iran tensions heated up again, oil prices rose once more, and ocean freight rates from Guinea to China soon followed with an upward trend; market offers rose to the $34-35/mt range, and mine costs across various mines increased to varying degrees. Coupled with Guinean policy uncertainties and transport impacts from adverse weather, Guinean mines tightened control over bauxite shipments. In Australia, as of July 10, weekly port departures of bauxite from major Australian ports totaled 721,300 mt, down 346,800 mt from the previous week, a slight decline in shipments; further attention is needed on shipment pace from Australian mines and changes in port departures. As of July 10, China's bauxite port arrivals reached 3.9968 million mt, down 98,700 mt from the previous week; continued monitoring is required of the impact of elevated and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on future arrival pace and landed costs. In terms of prices, Guinean bauxite long-term contract quotations for July were in the $70-71.5/mt range, little changed from June. Meanwhile, bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained high, remaining relatively stable this week, with days of inventories at about 95 days, exerting some top pressure on ore prices. For Guinean bauxite, as transportation costs from Guinea to China rebounded and mine costs increased, coupled with the shipment reductions caused by the traditional rainy season and adverse weather, upstream producers and traders maintained firm quotes, remaining stable in the high price range of $70-72/mt; due to the dual impact of sustained high inventories and contracting profits, domestic alumina refineries lowered their intended transaction prices to $70/mt or lower; the upstream and downstream of the bauxite market experienced severe price divergences, market transactions slowed down, gradually returning to a state of bargaining. As of Thursday this week, a total of three bauxite transactions were reported: one deal of grade 45/3 Guinean bauxite was transacted at $70.5/mt CIF northern ports, with arrival expected in late August; one deal of grade 45/3 Guinean bauxite was transacted at $71/mt CIF northern ports; one deal of grade 45/3 Guinean bauxite was transacted at $72/mt CIF northern ports, with arrival expected from late July to early August. As of Thursday this week, Guinean bauxite FOB quotes were $38-40/mt, with the average price flat compared to last Thursday; Guinean bauxite CIF price was reported at $69-72/mt, with the average price falling by $0.5/mt from last Thursday; the SMM imported bauxite index price was reported at $70.36/mt, up $0.18/mt from last Thursday. Future bauxite prices will still depend on the cost situations of individual mines, the impact of Guinea's traditional rainy season and the government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments, and SMM will continue to closely monitor the market trends and transactions in the bauxite market. Overall, domestic ore market prices maintained the current level; meanwhile, inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained high (about 96 days), and the price negotiation between buyers and sellers continued; the uncertainty over Guinea's quota policy, the decline in shipments, and the traditional rainy season also exerted some upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, due to the dual impact of costs and policy leading to reduced shipments, imported ore prices are expected to continue the high-level bargaining pattern; afterwards, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and trends in ocean freight rates.