[SMM Nickel Flash] Currently, mainstream steel mills have largely completed their peak-season stockpiling, and their overall procurement pace has slowed. Only a small number of enterprises have restocking demand. Downstream purchasing sentiment is generally cautious, and there is a notable price spread between steel mills’ acceptable prices and suppliers’ quotes. Acceptance of high-priced cargoes of high-grade NPI remains limited. As futures decline, steel mills’ procurement interest is weakening further.

[SMM Nickel Flash] The SMM average price of 10-12% high-grade NPI fell by 2.8 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,133 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), and the average Indonesia NPI FOB index price increased by $0.13/nickel unit WoW to $146.52/nickel unit. This week, the high-grade NPI spot market remained in a deadlock overall, with overall transaction volume remaining limited throughout.

The SMM average price for 10-12% high-grade NPI fell by 2.8 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,133 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included); the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price rose by $0.13/nickel unit WoW to $146.52/nickel unit. This week, the high-grade NPI spot market remained in a deadlock overall, with transaction volumes remaining limited throughout.

[SMM Analysis] Futures Drag Down Stainless Steel Prices, Steel Mill Profits Narrow Significantly This week, finished stainless steel product prices and production costs pulled back slightly in tandem. Driven by a sharp decline in SS futures, the drop in stainless steel prices widened noticeably, and steel mills’ overall smelting profits narrowed significantly. Based on 304 cold-rolled calculations, this week’s profit margin was 0.24% based on current raw materials and 0.68% based on inventory raw materials. On the nickel-based raw material side, high-grade NPI ended its previous streak of gains this week and entered a pullback after the rally stalled. During the week, high-grade NPI prices fell under pressure as SHFE nickel futures declined and market sentiment was disrupted by news that Indonesian nickel ore approval quotas may increase. Dragged down by the continued build-up of market pessimism and narrowing profit margins at stainless steel mills, high-grade NPI purchasing activity remained weak and sluggish. As of Friday this week, the delivered duty-paid price in China for 10-12% grade Indonesian high-grade NPI fell by 2 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136 yuan/nickel unit. This week, stainless steel scrap prices held steady for the time being, but the market already showed clear signs of pressure. Affected by falling futures and lower finished steel prices, market pessimism continued to intensify. The weak downward trend in high-grade NPI kept narrowing the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap, and cost support continued to weaken. Although higher production schedules fueled expectations of a recovery in rigid demand, steel mills’ limited profit margins and cautious restocking attitudes provided insufficient support for the market. Against a backdrop of multiple bearish factors resonating, stainless steel scrap will weaken in tandem with futures in the short term and remain in the doldrums overall. As of Friday this week, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai were flat, quoted at 10,450 yuan/mt...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] News Disruption Sends SS Sharply Lower; Stainless Steel Spot Prices Weaken, Trading Sluggish According to SMM on August 14, SS futures saw a sharp pullback. In the night session, the nonferrous metals sector was broadly in the doldrums. SS was already pulling back in tandem with the sector. Coupled with the morning disruption caused by news that Indonesian nickel ore quotas may be increased significantly, SHFE nickel and SS fell sharply in tandem. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,120 yuan/mt. In the spot market, driven by the pullback in SS futures and lower offers from steel mill agents, stainless steel spot prices pulled back significantly. The price drop further reinforced market pessimism, and market trading remained in the doldrums. The Most-Traded SS Futures Contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 traded at 14,245 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums for 304/2B were in the 425-825 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled 304/2B mill-edge coil, the average price in Wuxi fell 100 yuan/mt and that in Foshan fell 150 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi fell 300 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/No.1 coil offers in Wuxi fell 350 yuan/mt; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were flat. This week, stainless steel futures were repeatedly disrupted by macro sentiment and generally maintained a weak pullback trend. During the week, news on Indonesia’s RKAB nickel ore approvals repeatedly disturbed industry expectations. Coupled with the US Fed's hawkish policy stance, the US-Iran geopolitical conflict still...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Pull Back; Stainless Steel Quotes Retreat; Market Trading Sluggish SMM, August 13 – SS futures moved lower and pulled back overall, dragged by broad weakness in nonferrous metals, with SS moving down in tandem. As of the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,385 yuan/mt. In the spot market, dragged by the pullback in SS futures and lower guidance prices at a major stainless steel mill, 304 stainless steel quotes pulled back. However, the price pullback turned market sentiment pessimistic; downstream purchasing was cautious, and intraday inquiries and deals were weak. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 stood at 14,395 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums for 304/2B were in the 475-675 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil, average prices fell by 125 yuan/mt in Wuxi and by 175 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quotes in Wuxi were flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, stainless steel futures were disrupted by both industry news and capital flows, showing wild swings overall, with a fierce tug-of-war between longs and shorts. During the week, news about additional nickel ore quotas under Indonesia’s RKAB repeatedly disrupted market expectations. Combined with shifts in capital flows in futures, SS futures rose initially before pulling back, briefly testing the 15,100 yuan/mt level mid-week, but subsequently, as expectations of growth in nickel ore quotas heated up...