China’s NPI prices have remained firm despite falling production costs because freely available inventories have tightened. FeNi, meanwhile, has followed lower benchmark nickel prices and faced competition from cheaper refined nickel, compressing its premium over NPI. The divergence could reverse as Chinese output rises and Indonesian producers switch capacity back to NPI.

In H1 2026, the Indonesian 10-12% high-grade NPI (delivered to port, tax inclusive) market trended steadily upward, with the SMM average price rising 12% compared to the same period in 2025. Price movements were characterized by “stepwise increases and fluctuations at highs.” Each round of supply-demand imbalance and policy disruption pushed prices onto a higher level.

The global stainless steel market navigated a series of sharp sentiment. The opening weeks saw Indonesia's mill closures and price hikes push the cost narrative to its highest point of the year, before a combination of easing geopolitical tensions triggered the first price reduction since December 2025. The month's defining characteristic was similar to April's. What differentiated May was the sharply higher amplitude of both the policy signals and the emotional swings that accompanied them.

Indonesian authorities suspended over 50 mining firms during work plan inspections, while power issues are forcing Weda Bay industrial park to cut NPI output in June, keeping raw material costs elevated and global nickel prices high. As a result, Chinese Taiwan's upstream stainless steel mills are expected to announce flat-to-higher prices for June, following five consecutive months of increases. While semiconductor expansion and green energy infrastructure support local demand, sustained price hikes risk triggering buyer resistance among exporters. Market participants anticipate mills will balance high production costs against domestic market tolerance, pointing to a steady-to-slightly-higher pricing outcome.

SMM data shows that overseas stainless steel prices saw their first correction after six months of gains during May 18–22. Indonesia’s leading mills cut FOB 300 series stainless steel by USD30/mt, then kept prices stable through out the week. Policy-driven supply concerns from Indonesia and IWIP NPI cuts pushed LME nickel above USD 18,800/mt. The market focus shifted from price weakness to cost support, while demand remained resistant to high prices.

Rumored NPI production cuts at one of Indonesia's largest nickel hubs reveal a deeper structural shift — and a stark gap in per-megawatt-hour returns between aluminum and nickel.