SMM, June 10: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market weakened across the board. SHFE lead fell 0.43%, SHFE tin dropped 1.89%, SHFE nickel lost 2.29%, SHFE copper edged down 0.33%, SHFE aluminum declined 0.85%, and SHFE zinc slipped 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.11%, the most-traded alumina contract gained 3.21%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract added 0.53%, the most-traded silicon metal contract increased 2%, while the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.63%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.59%, rebar added 0.13%, HRC edged lower, and stainless steel fell 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract dropped 3.13%, and the most-traded coke contract declined 1.35%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper edged up 0.06%, LME aluminum fell 1.03%, LME lead dropped 0.38%, LME zinc declined 0.24%, LME tin lost 0.92%, and LME nickel slipped 0.36%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.99%, touching an intraday low of $4,195.5/oz, while COMEX silver dropped 1.82%. In domestic precious metals, the most-traded SHFE gold contract declined 3.79%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract slumped 6.79%. Ilya Spivak, global macro head at Tastylive, noted that the real drivers lie in shifting expectations around US Fed policy, rising yields, and a stronger US dollar. "I think these factors are all weighing on gold," he said. Spivak added that if gold breaks below the $4,100 mark, support levels would fundamentally change, and by the end of the year, we may be looking at the next threshold of $3,500. (Jin10 Data APP) Meanwhile, by the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 5.43%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 2.77%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container freight futures contract climbed 3.2% to 3,993 points. As of 11:39 on June 10, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated in the 24,575-24,745 yuan/mt range, Shuangyan was mainly transacted at 24,675-24,835 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream deals were at 24,505-24,675 yuan/mt. In early trading, the market quoted premiums of 20-30 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no quotes against the futures contract yet... Macro Front China side: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): May CPI Rose 1.2% YoY, PPI Rose 3.9% YoY, with PPI Continuing to Increase] NBS data showed that in May 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% YoY. Specifically, urban CPI rose 1.3% YoY, while rural CPI rose 1.1% YoY; food prices fell 1.7% YoY, while non-food prices rose 1.9% YoY; consumer goods prices rose 1.6% YoY, while services prices rose 0.8% YoY. In the January–May average, national CPI rose 1.0% YoY. In May, national CPI edged down 0.1% MoM. In May 2026, China’s national producer price index (PPI) rose 3.9% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The industrial producer purchasing price index rose 5.8% YoY and 1.3% MoM. In the January–May average, PPI rose 1.0% YoY, while the purchasing price index rose 1.6% YoY. Within the purchasing price index in May, price increases were led by non-ferrous metals and wires (22.0%), chemical raw materials (11.8%), fuels and power (10.0%), textile raw materials (2.5%), and ferrous metals (0.3%); meanwhile, declines were seen in building materials and non-metallic products (-5.5%) and agricultural and sideline products (-1.6%). Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on the CPI and PPI data for May 2026. The PBOC conducted a 159-billion-yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. No reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index slipped 0.01% to 99.94. Renewed conflict between the US and Iran drove up both the dollar and oil prices, exacerbating market concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes. Markets are awaiting key US inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. (Jinshi Data APP) At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI data. This is also the most closely watched heavyweight inflation data ahead of the new Fed Chair Warsh's policy rate meeting next week. According to forecasts, four institutions, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, project the overall CPI YoY for May to be in the 4.17%–4.3% range, all above April’s 3.81% . However, their MoM core CPI forecasts are generally below market consensus. (Wall Street CN) According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 98.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 1.8%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July stands at 85.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 12.6%, and that of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.6%. CSC Financial pointed out that, in the short term, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike remains low, and the market's concerns about Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, built on assumptions of sticky US inflation and a persistently hot labor market. CME FedWatch data shows that markets outside China expect the most likely Fed rate hike to begin at the end of October 2026. The current global liquidity tightening and market adjustment represent a front-running reaction to expectations for a Fed rate hike in Q4. For China’s bond market, the increase in expectations of Fed tightening is not a negative factor. China’s bond market is relatively independent and has a relatively small correlation with US Treasuries. Moreover, given the ample liquidity in China, the expected tightening of liquidity outside China and the adjustment in equity markets may not rule out the possibility of driving capital into the bond market, supporting current levels of long-dated bonds. Going forward, the 10-year Chinese government bond yield is expected to continue to fluctuate around the 1.70% mark; a break below 1.70% would still require the emergence of incremental domestic information. Data Releases: Today, the following data will be released: US May unadjusted CPI YoY, US May seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US May unadjusted core CPI YoY, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision due June 10, and China May M2 money supply YoY (pending). In addition, the following should be watched: the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision announcement; and a monetary policy press conference by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers. Crude Oil: As of 11:39, both oil benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.94% and Brent up 0.98%. Renewed supply concerns stemming from the re-erupting conflict in the Middle East, together with declining US crude oil inventories, have provided support to oil prices. Data: US API crude oil inventories for the week ended June 5: -9.119 million barrels (expected -3.421 million, prior -6.757 million). US API gasoline inventories for the week ended June 5: -1.191 million barrels (expected -614,000, prior 3.454 million). (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday local time that, due to the loss of over 11 million barrels per day of crude oil production in the Middle East caused by the conflict, major consuming countries are drawing down inventories at an unprecedented pace to fill the supply gap, and OECD oil inventories are heading towards their lowest levels since at least 2003. EIA stated that, under its current assumption that shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before early 2027, total OECD oil inventories will fall to just below 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in May, the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.4 percentage points MoM, indicating that overall business production and operations in China remained in expansion. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM, with the non-manufacturing prosperity level rebounding. China's PMI Performance in May 2026 I. China's Manufacturing PMI Performance In May, the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM, sitting at the threshold level. By enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 51.1%, up 0.9 percentage points MoM, above the threshold; the PMIs for medium and small enterprises were 48.6% and 48.5% respectively, down 1.9 and 1.6 percentage points MoM, both below the threshold. By sub-indices, among the five sub-indices constituting the manufacturing PMI, the production index was above the threshold, while the new orders index, raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. The production index was 51.2%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM, but still above the threshold, indicating that manufacturing production activity remained in expansion. The new orders index was 49.9%, down 0.7 percentage points MoM, indicating that the prosperity level of manufacturing market demand pulled back somewhat. The raw material inventory index was 48.6%, down 0.7 percentage points MoM, indicating a decline in the inventory of major raw materials in manufacturing. The employment index was 48.6%, down 0.2 percentage points MoM, indicating that the prosperity level of manufacturing employment pulled back somewhat. The supplier delivery time index was 49.2%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers continued to lengthen MoM. II. China's Non-manufacturing PMI Performance In May, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM, with the non-manufacturing prosperity level rebounding. By sector, the construction business activity index was 48.8%, up 0.8 percentage points MoM; the services business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM. Within the services sector, industries such as railway transportation, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, and insurance all had business activity indices in the relatively high prosperity range of above 55.0%; industries such as air transportation and real estate had business activity indices below the threshold. The new orders index was 45.0%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the non-manufacturing market demand improved. By sector, the construction new orders index was 43.5%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month; the services new orders index was 45.3%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The input price index was 52.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall input prices for non-manufacturing business operations continued to rise. By sector, the construction input price index was 53.7%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month; the services input price index was 52.0%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The selling price index was 48.8%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the decline in overall selling prices of non-manufacturing enterprises narrowed. By sector, the construction selling price index was 48.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the services selling price index was 48.9%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month. The employment index was 45.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that employment conditions in non-manufacturing enterprises improved slightly. By sector, the construction employment index was 41.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month; the services employment index was 46.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity expectations index was 54.8%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises' confidence in market development strengthened. By sector, the construction business activity expectations index was 51.5%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month; the services business activity expectations index was 55.4%, unchanged from the previous month. III. China Composite PMI Output Index In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's overall enterprise production and business activities remained in expansion. Composite PMI Output Index Remained in Expansion in May — Interpretation of China's PMI for May 2026 by Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) On May 31, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the NBS and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's PMI. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the NBS, provided an interpretation of the data. In May, the manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.5% respectively, up 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. China's overall economic output remained in expansion. I. Manufacturing PMI at the Threshold In May, the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, indicating that overall business production and operations remained stable. (i) Enterprise production maintained expansion. The production index was 51.2%, above the threshold, as manufacturing production activities continued to expand; the new orders index was 49.9%, suggesting that market demand somewhat slowed down. By sector, the production and new orders indices for industries such as pharmaceuticals, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, and computer, communications, and electronic equipment were all above 53.0%, with both production and demand sides of these industries remaining relatively active; the two indices for industries such as petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing, chemical fibers, rubber and plastic products, and non-metallic mineral products remained below the threshold, with both supply and demand sides still showing insufficiency. (ii) New momentum continued to develop favorably. The PMIs for high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing were 52.9% and 52.1%, respectively, up 0.7 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, both remaining consistently above the threshold. In particular, the PMI for high-tech manufacturing had stayed in expansion territory for 16 consecutive months, with related industries maintaining strong growth and the leading role of new momentum continuing to emerge; the PMIs for consumer goods industries and high energy-consuming industries were 49.7% and 47.1%, respectively, down 1 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with market activity somewhat weakening. (iii) Large enterprise PMI remained consistently above the threshold. The PMI for large enterprises was 51.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, staying in expansion territory throughout the year, as large enterprises sustained a favorable production and operation trend; the PMIs for medium and small enterprises were 48.6% and 48.5%, respectively, with business conditions pulling back. (iv) Price indices fluctuated at high levels. The raw material purchase price index and the ex-factory price index were 60.5% and 51.9%, respectively, both pulling back 3.2 percentage points from the previous month but remaining at relatively high levels in recent periods. Both indices stayed in expansion territory for five consecutive months, as overall market price levels in manufacturing continued to rise. By sector, the two price indices for industries such as textiles, chemical fibers, rubber and plastic products, and ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing remained above 55.0% for three consecutive months, with overall purchase and sales price levels in related industries continuing to rise. II. Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index Rose above the Threshold In May, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, as the non-manufacturing business conditions rebounded. (i) The services business activity index rose into expansion territory. The services business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, with market activity in the services sector somewhat improving. By industry, the business activity indices for industries such as railway transportation, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, and insurance were all above the relatively high prosperity range of 55.0%, with rapid growth in total business volume; the business activity indices for industries such as air transportation and real estate were below the critical point, indicating relatively low prosperity levels in these industries. In terms of market expectations, the service sector business activity expectations index was 55.4%, remaining in the relatively high prosperity range, indicating that most service sector enterprises held generally optimistic expectations for near-term market development. (2) The construction sector business activity index rebounded. The construction sector business activity index was 48.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with improved prosperity levels. In terms of market expectations, the construction sector business activity expectations index was 51.5%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that construction enterprises' confidence in future industry development recovered somewhat. 3. Composite PMI Output Index Continued to Expand In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's enterprise production and business activities generally maintained expansion. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 51.2% and 50.1%, respectively.

SMM News, May 27: Metals market: As of the midday close, most domestic base metals rose, while SHFE copper edged down. SHFE aluminum rose 0.8%. SHFE lead rose 0.33%, SHFE zinc fell 0.72%. SHFE tin rose 0.63%. SHFE nickel rose 1.91%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.52%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.96%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.09%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.47%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 2.17%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.19%, rebar fell 0.69%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.44%, and stainless steel rose 1.49%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.77%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.6%. LME aluminum rose 0.39%. LME lead rose 0.05%. LME zinc rose 0.4%. LME tin rose 1.24%. LME nickel rose 0.32%. Precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.08%, COMEX silver rose 0.63%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.05%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.73%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.15%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.98%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.77%, closing at 2,949 points. As of 11:38 on May 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Cargo and Fundamentals Alumina: SMM statistics show that the scale of alumina projects under construction and under planning in Guinea has exceeded... Macro Front China: [NBS: From January to April, profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 18.2%; non-ferrous metals sector profits surged 117.8%] NBS data showed that from January to April, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 2.44 trillion yuan, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April, the mining sector posted profits of 361.84 billion yuan, up 26.0% YoY; the manufacturing sector posted profits of 1.80 trillion yuan, up 20.4%; and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector posted profits of 272.01 billion yuan, down 1.9%. From January to April, profitability of major industries was as follows: non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing (up 1.2x YoY), computer, communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (up 1.1x), chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing (up 73.4%), coal mining and washing (up 21.0%), textile (up 11.2%), petroleum and natural gas extraction (up 8.1%), petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing (turned from loss to profit), general equipment manufacturing (down 0.6%), electricity and heat production and supply (down 2.5%), special equipment manufacturing (down 7.2%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (down 11.4%), agricultural and sideline food processing (down 11.8%), automobile manufacturing (down 16.8%), non-metallic minerals products (down 50.7%), and ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing (down 51.5%). [PBOC Conducts 177.6 Billion Yuan in Open Market Reverse Repo Operations with Net Injection of 127.6 Billion Yuan in a Single Day] The PBOC conducted 177.6 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. 50 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 99.1. According to Nikkei, Fed's Kashkari stated that the US Fed may implement a "series" of interest rate hikes in response to inflation concerns triggered by the Middle East situation. During the late-April FOMC meeting, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Kashkari and two other officials dissented against the decision to include language in the Fed's statement hinting at future monetary easing. In a written interview, Kashkari said: "I think the next rate adjustment could be an interest rate cut, or it could be a rate hike." He used this to express his differing views. Kashkari said the outcome would depend on inflation trends, which depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon or remain effectively closed due to further damage to infrastructure in the region, the latter of which would exacerbate the global energy shortage. Kashkari said the concern was that long-term inflation expectations of enterprises and households "could become unanchored." He said the FOMC "may well need to respond forcefully," and rate hikes, or even a series of rate hikes, could be necessary measures. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.2%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 88.6%, with an 11.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that the resilience of the global economy is being tested by the Middle East conflict, while a glimmer of hope for the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has emerged. The US economy is likely to continue growing mildly but unevenly this year, the pace of the EU's weak recovery is being delayed, and Japan's private-sector demand is inevitably subject to disruptions from energy shortages. High oil prices are already pushing up global inflation, with headline inflation rates in Europe and the US likely to fluctuate at highs this year, while Japan's headline inflation rate may continue its mild performance. The US Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year, while potential rate hikes by the European and Japanese central banks are imminent, and the "unrestrained" fiscal stances of Japanese and European political circles could constitute a source of market risk this year. We maintain our view that US equities will outperform US Treasuries and the US dollar index will find support, while gold prices are expected to break out of their current range as tail risks to inflation dissipate. Other currencies: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, opting to continue observing the impact of the global energy shock on domestic consumption and medium-term inflation. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%, in line with market expectations. The RBNZ's latest projections show a rising likelihood of at least two 25bp rate hikes before year-end. In its post-meeting statement, the RBNZ said: "Taken together, the OCR will likely need to be raised sooner and by more than projected in the February Monetary Policy Statement." "The pace of hikes will depend on the relative impact of persistent wage and pricing behavior versus weakening economic activity on medium-term inflation pressures." Following the statement, NZD/USD rose. (Jin10 Data) Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo said vigilance is needed regarding the impact of surging oil prices on underlying inflation trends, but did not clearly signal how this factor would influence next month's policy meeting outcome. Ueda said on Wednesday: "Japan's experience shows that oil price shocks are never just oil price shocks; they actually test the entire inflation mechanism." Reviewing the impact of oil crises since the 1970s, he noted: "We are in fact experiencing the fifth oil price shock." "If a temporary shock alters wages, inflation expectations, and corporate pricing behavior, it may evolve into persistent inflation." Ueda did not directly signal the future policy path, but as his remarks reflected concerns over the impact of high oil prices, markets may further strengthen speculation about the prospect of a rate hike at the BoJ's June meeting. Overnight swap market pricing shows traders currently assign roughly a 75% probability to a 25bp rate hike by the BoJ next month. (Jin10 Data) Australia's April core inflation rate remained above the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range, further reinforcing market expectations that the RBA will maintain its hawkish stance after consecutive rate hikes this year. Data on Wednesday showed the closely watched core inflation gauge—the annual trimmed mean inflation rate excluding volatile items—rose 3.4% YoY, in line with economists' expectations. The RBA targets keeping inflation near the midpoint of its 2%-3% target band. Interest rate swap markets currently price the probability of another rate hike in August at around 50%, down from 64% before the data release. Under the dual pressure of high borrowing costs and surging fuel prices driven by the Iran war, the Australian economy is beginning to show signs of weakness. The unemployment rate in April rose to a four-and-a-half-year high, while approximately one-third of enterprises reported declining revenue over the past four weeks, and half reported rising operating costs. The market widely expects that after raising rates at all three meetings earlier this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in June. Sue-Ellen Luke, head of price statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, said: "Automotive fuel prices currently remain 23.5% higher than before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. The impact of rising oil prices is also reflected in goods and services with higher transportation and logistics costs." (Jin10 Data) Data: Today will see the release of the RBNZ interest rate decision as of May 27, Switzerland's May ZEW Investor Confidence Index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 9, and the US May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo delivering a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the BOJ; the RBNZ releasing its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; RBNZ Governor Breman holding a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:38, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 2.03% and Brent down 1.75%. Oil prices fell in Asian early trading as traders weighed the prospects of a US-Iran deal. Front-month Brent crude declined. Despite a resurgence in hostilities, hopes remain for an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran signaled that the attacks would not derail negotiations, while US Secretary of State Rubio said it would take a few days to finalise a potential deal. Uncertainty remains high. Kieran Tomkins of Capital Economics noted that while crude oil options data suggest investors expect prices to pull back over the next three months, their conviction is unusually low. He said options indicate investors see a swift resumption of supply through the strait as the most likely outcome, but their implied expectations suggest a 37% probability that oil prices will exceed $100 per barrel in three months. (Zhitong Finance) On the evening of May 26 local time, the Public Relations Department of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy announced that over the past 24 hours, 25 vessels including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz with permission, under the coordination and security guarantee of the IRGC Navy. Meanwhile, the IRGC Navy stated that it is exercising "effective and authoritative" control over the Strait of Hormuz, and any act of aggression will be met with a severe response. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

According to NBS data, from January to April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.6% YoY in real terms (all value-added growth rates are real growth rates after deducting price factors). In April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.1% YoY. On a MoM basis, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size in April increased 0.05% from the previous month. By three major sectors, in April, the value added of the mining industry grew 3.8% YoY, manufacturing grew 4.0%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 5.3%. By economic type, in April, the value added of state-holding enterprises grew 3.0% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 4.2%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 4.1%; and private enterprises grew 2.8%. By industry, in April, 29 out of 41 major industrial categories maintained YoY growth in value added. Among them, coal mining and washing grew 3.8%, oil and natural gas extraction grew 4.6%, agricultural and sideline food processing grew 3.5%, liquor, beverages, and refined tea manufacturing declined 1.4%, textiles grew 2.3%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing grew 5.3%, non-metallic minerals products manufacturing declined 6.5%, ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing grew 1.0%, non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing declined 1.0%, general equipment manufacturing grew 5.5%, special equipment manufacturing grew 6.2%, automobile manufacturing grew 9.2%, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing grew 8.2%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing grew 3.1%, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing grew 15.6%, and electricity and heat production and supply grew 6.2%. By product, in April, 321 out of 626 products of industrial enterprises above designated size recorded YoY growth in production. Among them, steel products (122.63 million mt, down 1.7% YoY), cement (145.71 million mt, down 10.8%), ten kinds of non-ferrous metals (6.94 million mt, up 2.8%), ethylene (3.15 million mt, down 4.1%), automobiles (2.564 million units, down 2.6%), of which NEVs (1.296 million units, up 3.8%); power generation (744 billion kWh, up 2.6%); and crude oil processing volume (54.65 million mt, down 5.8%). In April, the sales ratio of products of industrial enterprises above designated size was 97.1%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY; the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,373.3 billion yuan, up 10.6% YoY in nominal terms.

SMM News, April 27: On April 24, 2026, market rumors emerged that Guinea would cap its bauxite export volume at 150 million tons, with the relevant policy to be officially released on April 25. The news drove a sharp rise in alumina during the overnight session that day. The main alumina contract 2609 hit a high of 2,899 yuan per ton and closed at 2,894 yuan per ton, up 2.76% from the previous settlement price. As of April 25, 2026, no updated official policy documents had been released on relevant government websites in Guinea. Per market rumors, Guinea’s bauxite exports will be restricted to 150 million tons. Should the final policy be implemented as rumored, based on Guinea’s general bauxite trade flow ratios and historical shipment volumes, SMM estimates that domestic bauxite imports from Guinea will drop to approximately 132 million tons in 2026. Customs data for 2025 showed domestic imports of Guinea bauxite stood at around 149 million tons, Australian bauxite imports at roughly 37.42 million tons, and non-mainstream source bauxite imports at about 14.26 million tons. If Guinea bauxite imports fall to 132 million tons in 2026, Australian bauxite imports remain largely stable, and non-mainstream bauxite imports edge down to around 12.5 million tons, the total domestic bauxite import volume is projected to decline to roughly 182 million tons. SMM forecasts domestic bauxite output to reach 79 million tons in 2026 (including volumes supplied for non-metallurgical alumina production), putting the total domestic bauxite supply at approximately 261 million tons for the year. SMM estimates domestic metallurgical alumina output at 87.22 million tons in 2026, sufficient to support a annually aluminum production capacity of 45.3 million tons. The alumina market will shift to a net import status. Factoring in bauxite demand for non-metallurgical alumina segments, overall bauxite total demand is expected to hit around 262 million tons. On the whole, the bauxite market fundamentals are set to shift into a tight balance in 2026. Amid raw material inventory buildup demand from newly commissioned alumina capacity, the bauxite market is theoretically poised to face mild tight supply conditions. However, actual market performance is expected to be looser than modelled calculations, for the following key reasons: Electrolytic aluminum production cuts in the Middle East have exacerbated overseas alumina surplus, while global bauxite supply contraction has lifted price expectations. Rising domestic bauxite prices will push up local alumina production costs, further enhancing the cost competitiveness of overseas alumina. Higher alumina imports will replace part of bauxite imports, easing domestic bauxite supply tightness. Elevated inventory levels will ease market tightness. In 2025, high price incentives drove a substantial increase in bauxite supply, resulting in a notable supply surplus and sharp inventory accumulation.Data from SMM showed domestic port bauxite inventories stood at 21.32 million tons and bonded ore inventories at alumina refineries at about 57.06 million tons by early 2026, with combined inventories reaching 78.38 million tons. Ample inventory buffers will keep actual market conditions looser than theoretical projections. In summary, if Guinea finalizes its policy to cap total bauxite exports at 150 million tons with no major fluctuations in ocean freight rates, bauxite prices are expected to trend a little bit higher. Nevertheless, substantial overseas alumina surplus and increased substitutable alumina imports will cap upside potential for bauxite prices. Barring unforeseen black swan events, neither bauxite nor alumina prices are likely to replicate the strong rally seen from late 2024 to early 2025. In the short term, both buyers and sellers in the bauxite market are adopting a wait-and-see stance, pending official updates on Guinea’s new policy. Market sentiment remains cautious, and prices are projected to move in a volatile range ahead of clear policy guidance.

According to NBS data, in March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.7% YoY in real terms. On a MoM basis, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 0.28% from the previous month in March. From January to March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size was up 6.1% YoY. Value Added of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size Up 5.7% in March 2026 In March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.7% YoY in real terms (all value added growth rates are real growth rates after deducting price factors). On a MoM basis, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 0.28% from the previous month in March. From January to March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size was up 6.1% YoY. By three major sectors, in March, the value added of the mining sector grew 5.7% YoY, manufacturing grew 6.0%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water grew 3.5%. By economic type, in March, the value added of state-holding enterprises grew 5.9% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 6.2%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 3.7%; and private enterprises grew 4.0%. By industry, in March, 30 out of 41 major industrial sectors maintained YoY growth in value added. Among them, coal mining and washing grew 5.3%, oil and natural gas extraction grew 9.4%, agricultural and sideline food processing grew 8.0%, liquor, beverage and refined tea manufacturing grew 2.4%, textile industry grew 1.7%, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing grew 9.0%, non-metallic minerals product manufacturing declined 5.5%, ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing grew 1.7%, non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing remained flat YoY, general equipment manufacturing grew 6.3%, special equipment manufacturing grew 6.2%, automobile manufacturing grew 7.5%, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing grew 13.3%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing grew 5.4%, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing grew 12.5%, and electricity and heat production and supply grew 4.2%. By product, in March, 329 out of 626 products of industrial enterprises above designated size recorded YoY growth in production. Among them, steel products totaled 130.98 million mt, down 2.3% YoY; cement 123.1 million mt, down 21.0%; ten kinds of non-ferrous metals 7.07 million mt, up 2.2%; ethylene 3.64 million mt, up 6.8%; automobiles 3.067 million units, down 0.1%, of which NEVs 1.336 million units, up 1.2%; power generation 802.5 billion kWh, up 1.4%; crude oil processing volume 61.67 million mt, down 2.2%. In March, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 93.8%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY; the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,458 billion yuan, up 8.7% YoY in nominal terms.