NBS data showed that in February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a pullback in the manufacturing sector’s prosperity level. In February, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector’s prosperity level. In February, the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that overall production and business activities of enterprises in China slowed down from the previous month. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Sector Survey Center, interpreted China’s PMI for February 2026. Performance of China’s PMI in February 2026 I. Performance of China’s Manufacturing PMI In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a pullback in the manufacturing sector’s prosperity level. By enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and above the threshold; the PMIs for medium- and small-sized enterprises were 47.5% and 44.8%, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, respectively, and below the threshold. By sub-index, among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new orders index, raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. The production index was 49.6%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing production activities slowed down. The new orders index was 48.6%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the prosperity of market demand in the manufacturing sector. The raw material inventory index was 47.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the decline in inventories of major raw materials in the manufacturing sector narrowed slightly. The employment index was 48.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight pullback in the employment prosperity of manufacturing enterprises. The supplier delivery time index was 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that delivery times of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing sector slowed compared with the previous month. II. Performance of China’s Non-Manufacturing PMI In February, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector’s prosperity level. By industry, the construction business activity index was 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the services business activity index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of service industries, the business activity indices for industries such as accommodation, catering, and culture/sports/entertainment were all in a high prosperity range above 60.0%; the business activity indices for industries such as capital market services and real estate were all below the threshold. The new orders index was 45.2%, down 0.9 percentage points MoM, indicating a pull back in non-manufacturing market demand. By industry, the new orders index for the construction industry was 42.2%, up 2.1 percentage points MoM; the new orders index for the services industry was 45.7%, down 1.4 percentage points MoM. The input prices index was 50.9%, up 0.9 percentage points MoM, indicating an overall increase in the price level of inputs used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business operations. By industry, the input prices index for the construction industry was 49.1%, down 2.9 percentage points MoM; the input prices index for the services industry was 51.2%, up 1.5 percentage points MoM. The selling price index was 48.8%, unchanged from the previous month and still below the threshold, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing selling prices was lower than in the previous month. By industry, the selling price index for the construction industry was 47.6%, down 0.6 percentage points MoM; the selling price index for the services industry was 49.0%, up 0.1 percentage points MoM. The employment index was 46.0%, down 0.1 percentage points MoM, indicating a slight pull back in the employment prosperity of non-manufacturing enterprises. By industry, the employment index for the construction industry was 42.5%, up 1.4 percentage points MoM; the employment index for the services industry was 46.6%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM. The business activity expectations index was 55.0%, down 1.0 percentage point MoM and still in a relatively high prosperity range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises remained confident in market development. By industry, the business activity expectations index for the construction industry was 50.9%, up 1.1 percentage points MoM; the business activity expectations index for the services industry was 55.8%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM. III. Performance of China’s Composite PMI Output Index In February, the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating that overall production and business activities of enterprises in China slowed down compared with the previous month. In February, the manufacturing PMI pulled back, while the non-manufacturing business activity index rebounded slightly. —Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Survey Center, interprets China’s PMI for February 2026 On March 4, 2026, the NBS Service Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China’s PMI. In this regard, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), provided an interpretation. In February, affected by factors such as the Chinese New Year holiday, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0, down 0.3 percentage points MoM; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5, up 0.1 percentage points MoM; and the composite PMI output index was 49.5, down 0.3 percentage points MoM. I. The Manufacturing PMI Pulled Back In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0, with the prosperity level down from the previous month. Judging from historical data, the PMI in the month that includes the Chinese New Year mostly shows some fluctuations. In particular, this year’s Chinese New Year holiday was extended and fell entirely in mid-to-late February, which had some impact on enterprises’ production and operations, and overall market activity in manufacturing declined. (1) Both supply and demand slowed down. The production index and the new orders index were 49.6 and 48.6, down 1.0 and 0.6 percentage points MoM, respectively, indicating a pullback in manufacturing production and market demand. By industry, the production index and new orders index for industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing and computers, communications and electronic equipment were both above the critical point, with supply and demand prosperity remaining in expansion; in industries such as textiles, apparel and accessories and automobiles, both indices remained below the critical point, with weak market activity. (2) The PMI for large enterprises continued to expand. The PMI for large enterprises was 51.5, up 1.2 percentage points MoM, with production and operations remaining in expansion; small and medium-sized enterprises were more affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, with PMIs of 47.5 and 44.8 this month, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points MoM, respectively, and their prosperity levels pulled back. (3) Growth momentum in high-tech manufacturing continued to emerge. The high-tech manufacturing PMI was 51.5, remaining in expansion territory and significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level, indicating a favorable development trend in related industries; the consumer goods industry PMI was 48.8, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, with a rebound in the prosperity level; the PMIs for equipment manufacturing and high energy-consuming industries were 49.8 and 47.8, down 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points MoM, respectively, with their prosperity levels pulling back. (4) Enterprise expectations improved. The index of expectations for production and business activities was 53.2, up 0.6 percentage points MoM, indicating that manufacturing enterprises’ confidence in market development after the Chinese New Year strengthened. By industry, the index of expectations for production and business activities in industries such as general equipment and railway, ship, aerospace and aviation equipment was above 56.0, in a relatively high prosperity range, and related enterprises were more optimistic about near-term industry development. II. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Edged Up Slightly In February, the non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating some improvement in the overall prosperity level of the non-manufacturing sector. (I) The service sector’s prosperity level rebounded. The service sector business activity index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month. By industry, driven by the Chinese New Year holiday effect, business volumes grew relatively quickly in industries related to residents’ travel and consumption; among them, the business activity indices for accommodation, catering, and culture, sports and entertainment all remained in the high-prosperity range above 60.0%, while those for retail and air transport rose to above 52.0%. Meanwhile, the business activity indices for capital market services and real estate remained at low levels, with subdued market activity. From the perspective of market expectations, the service sector business activity expectations index was 55.8%, remaining in a relatively high-prosperity range, indicating that service sector enterprises remained optimistic about near-term market developments. (II) The construction sector’s prosperity level declined. Affected by factors such as employees of enterprises returning to their hometowns in large numbers during the Chinese New Year holiday and the suspension of construction at some projects, the construction sector business activity index fell to 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, and the construction sector’s prosperity level continued to pull back. From the perspective of market expectations, the construction sector business activity expectations index was 50.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning above the threshold, indicating that construction sector enterprises’ confidence in future industry development had somewhat recovered. III. Composite PMI Output Index Pulled Back In February, the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that overall production and business activities of enterprises in China slowed down somewhat MoM. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 49.6% and 49.5%, respectively.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released China's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for January 2026 today (31st). The data showed that in January, China's manufacturing market demand tightened somewhat, but enterprise production maintained an expansionary trend, with the industrial structure continuing to optimize. The service sector operated relatively stably, with business expectations continuously improving. The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI for equipment manufacturing in January was 50.1%, and for high-tech manufacturing, it was 52%. Both equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors are developing steadily and positively, with the manufacturing industrial structure continuously optimizing. Operation of China's Purchasing Managers' Index in January 2026 I. Operation of China's Manufacturing PMI In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a pullback in the level of manufacturing activity. By enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, yet still above the critical point; the PMIs for medium and small enterprises were 48.7% and 47.4% respectively, dropping by 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, both below the critical point. Looking at the sub-indices, among the five sub-indices constituting the manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index were both above the critical point, while the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were all below the critical point. The production index stood at 50.6%, a drop of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, yet still above the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production activities remained in an expansionary state. The new orders index was 49.2%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing market demand. The raw material inventory index was 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued reduction in the stock of major raw materials in the manufacturing sector. The employment index was 48.1%, a decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing a slight pullback in the employment climate for manufacturing enterprises. The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, yet still above the critical point, indicating a continuous acceleration in the delivery times of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing sector. II. Operation of China's Non-Manufacturing PMI In January, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a drop of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, the construction sector's business activity index was 48.8%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous month; the service sector's business activity index was 49.5%, a decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Looking at the service sector, the business activity indices for monetary and financial services, capital market services, insurance, and other industries were all above 65.0%; while the business activity indices for wholesale, accommodation, real estate, and other industries were all below the threshold. The new orders index stood at 46.1%, down 1.2 percentage points MoM, indicating a decline in market demand prosperity in the non-manufacturing sector. By sector, the new orders index for construction was 40.1%, down 7.3 percentage points MoM; the new orders index for services was 47.1%, down 0.2 percentage points MoM. The input prices index was 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points MoM, at the threshold, indicating that input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises' operational activities were generally flat compared to the previous month. By sector, the input prices index for construction was 52.0%, up 1.2 percentage points MoM; the input prices index for services was 49.7%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM. The selling price index was 48.8%, up 0.8 percentage points MoM, indicating that the overall decline in selling prices in the non-manufacturing sector narrowed. By sector, the selling price index for construction was 48.2%, up 0.8 percentage points MoM; the selling price index for services was 48.9%, up 0.8 percentage points MoM. The employment index was 46.1%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating that the employment prosperity of non-manufacturing enterprises was basically stable. By sector, the employment index for construction was 41.1%, up 0.1 percentage points MoM; the employment index for services was 47.0%, unchanged from the previous month. The business activity expectations index was 56.0%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM, still remaining in a high prosperity range, indicating that most non-manufacturing enterprises maintain optimistic market expectations. By sector, the business activity expectations index for construction was 49.8%, down 7.6 percentage points MoM; the business activity expectations index for services was 57.1%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM. III. Operation of China's Composite PMI Output Index In January, the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points MoM, indicating that the overall production and operating activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down compared to the previous month. China's Purchasing Managers' Index Pulled Back in January —Huoli Hui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, Interprets China's Purchasing Managers' Index for January 2026 On January 31, 2026, the NBS Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing released China's Purchasing Managers' Index. In this regard, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), provided an interpretation. In January, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index registered 49.3%, 49.4%, and 49.8%, respectively, down 0.8, 0.8, and 0.9 percentage points MoM, indicating a pullback in economic prosperity. I. Manufacturing PMI Declined Slightly, While Production Continued to Expand In January, as some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off-season and effective market demand remained insufficient, the manufacturing PMI stood at 49.3%, reflecting a decline in prosperity compared to the previous month. (1) Enterprise production continued to expand. The production index was 50.6%, above the threshold, indicating sustained expansion in manufacturing production; the new orders index was 49.2%, reflecting a pullback in market demand. By sector, the production and new orders indices for agricultural and non-staple food processing, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and other industries all exceeded 56.0%, indicating rapid release of production and demand; for petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing, automotive, and other industries, both indices were below the threshold, suggesting slowed market demand and a pullback in production in related sectors. (2) Both price indices rebounded. Influenced by factors such as recent price increases in some bulk commodities, the major raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index registered 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, up 3.0 and 1.7 percentage points MoM. Notably, the ex-factory price index rose above the threshold for the first time in nearly 20 months, indicating an overall improvement in the price level of the manufacturing market. By sector, the major raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index for non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, electrical machinery and equipment, and other industries both rose above 55.0%, reflecting overall price increases for raw material procurement and product sales in related sectors; for timber processing and furniture, petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing, and other industries, both price indices remained below the threshold. (3) The PMI for large enterprises continued to exceed the threshold. The PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, remaining in expansion territory, with their supportive role continuing to be evident; the PMI for medium and small enterprises were 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, down 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points MoM, indicating a pullback in their prosperity levels. (4) High-tech manufacturing continued to lead. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 52.0%, staying at or above the relatively high level of 52.0% for two consecutive months, indicating sustained positive development trends in related industries. The PMI for equipment manufacturing was 50.1%, remaining in expansion territory. The PMI for consumer goods and high-energy-consumption industries were 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively, reflecting a pullback in their prosperity levels. (V) Enterprise Expectations Remain Optimistic. The business activity expectations index stands at 52.6%, continuing to be above the critical point. By industry, the business activity expectations index for agricultural and sideline food processing, food and beverage refining, and tea industries has remained above 56.0% for two consecutive months, indicating strong confidence among related enterprises in the recent development of their respective industries. II. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Pulls Back Slightly, Financial Market Activity Remains High In January, influenced by factors such as a decline in the prosperity of the construction industry, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a pullback in the overall prosperity level of the non-manufacturing sector. (I) Service Sector Prosperity Drops Back Slightly. The service sector business activity index was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, the business activity indices for monetary financial services, capital market services, and insurance were all above 65.0%, showing high market activity; the real estate industry's business activity index fell below 40.0%, with a generally weak prosperity level. In terms of market expectations, the service sector business activity expectations index was 57.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that service enterprises' confidence in the near-term market development has strengthened somewhat. (II) Construction Industry Prosperity Declines. Affected by recent low temperatures and the approaching Chinese New Year holiday, construction production and operations slowed down, with the business activity index at 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points from the previous month, marking a significant pullback in the construction industry's prosperity level. In terms of market expectations, the construction industry business activity expectations index was 49.8%, dropping below the critical point, suggesting that construction enterprises are cautious about the industry's development prospects. III. Composite PMI Output Index Slightly Below Critical Point In January, the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that overall enterprise business activities slowed down compared to the previous month. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 50.6% and 49.4%, respectively.

This week, the global precious metals market has witnessed a historic moment. Following gold's breakthrough above $3,400 per ounce, silver has taken the lead in the gains. Currently, silver prices have surged past the $36 per ounce mark. Note: Performance of COMEX silver Driven by the soaring silver prices, the precious metals sector in the Hong Kong stock market has strengthened once again. As of press time, China Silver Group (00815.HK) has risen by 20.55%, China Gold International Resources (02099.HK) by 3.30%, Zijin Mining (02899.HK) by 2.23%, and Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) by 2.22%. Note: Performance of precious metals stocks in the Hong Kong stock market In terms of news, the Trump administration raised steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% in early June, sparking market concerns that key metals could become the next target for tariff increases. As a core industrial metal in the new energy sector, silver's strategic value is being re-evaluated. Analysts point out that if the US imposes tariffs on silver-related industry chains, it could further exacerbate supply chain tensions. Additionally, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for May fell below the 50 mark to 49.9, and the ADP employment data significantly missed expectations. Coupled with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's dovish stance, market expectations for a September interest rate cut by the US Fed have surged to 97.5%. Historical data shows that silver's price elasticity during interest rate cut cycles is significantly higher than that of gold. During the interest rate cut cycles from 2001-2003 and 2020-2021, silver prices rose by more than 50% in both periods. Among the biggest beneficiaries of this silver rally is undoubtedly China Silver Group, a professional silver producer and comprehensive operator in China, with a business scope covering the entire industry chain of silver manufacturing, new jewelry retail, and silver trading. Institutions say silver may enter a "super cycle" Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, pointed out that with the US dollar index falling to a two-year low and geopolitical risks reigniting, precious metals are experiencing a breakthrough rally. Given that silver's market size is only one-tenth that of gold, the same amount of capital inflows will trigger greater price volatility. Guosen Futures believes that silver, with its dual attributes of being a safe-haven asset and an industrial metal, has greater room for valuation repair amid escalating trade frictions. If the US Fed initiates an interest rate cut cycle, silver's target price could potentially reach $40-50 per ounce.

SMM, June 5: Metal Market: Overnight, domestic market base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE tin rising by 1.51%. SHFE copper fell slightly. SHFE nickel dropped by 0.29%. SHFE lead increased by 0.54%. SHFE aluminum rose by 0.47%, and SHFE zinc remained flat at 22,380 yuan/mt. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose slightly. Overnight, the ferrous metals series all rose, with iron ore increasing by 0.5%, stainless steel rising by 0.47%, rebar up by 0.41%, and HRC gaining 0.16%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell by 1.68%, while coke rose by 0.6%. Overnight, overseas market base metals showed mixed performance, with LME copper rising by 0.16%, LME aluminum increasing by 0.95%, LME lead and LME zinc falling slightly, LME tin gaining 1.65%, and LME nickel dropping by 0.7%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose by 0.6%; COMEX silver increased by 0.06%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose by 0.45%, and SHFE silver remained flat at 8,447 yuan/kg. As of 8:15 on June 5, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [MIIT Deploys to Promote the Development of the AI Industry and Empower New-type Industrialization] Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, chaired a meeting on June 3 to study and promote the ideas and measures for the development of the AI industry and empowering new-type industrialization. The meeting emphasized the need for systematic planning and coordinated promotion to comprehensively implement tasks in strategy, planning, policies, and standards, creating a favorable ecological environment for the development of the AI industry and empowering new-type industrialization, fully stimulating innovation vitality. It is necessary to consolidate the industrial foundation. Strengthen computing power supply, coordinate the layout of general-purpose large models and industry-specific large models, focus on hardware and software adaptation, accelerate the establishment of high-quality industry datasets, and enhance the intelligence level of key products and equipment. It is necessary to shape application advantages. Promote the deployment of large models in key industries of the manufacturing sector, accelerate the refinement of application scenario requirements, accelerate the intelligent upgrading of the entire manufacturing process, and transform production management modes. Cultivate a group of AI-enabled application service providers and accelerate the deployment, application, and iterative upgrading of industry-specific large models. It is necessary to strengthen standard leadership. Coordinate the promotion of AI standardization work, leverage the roles of an effective market and a proactive government, advance standard formulation in a graded, classified, and systematic manner, and effectively leverage the foundational, leading, and supportive roles of standards. It is necessary to expand the industrial ecosystem. Focus on cultivating leading AI enterprises and support the specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative development of small and medium-sized AI enterprises. Improve the AI open-source mechanism, accelerate the construction of high-level AI open-source communities, and create an open and shared open-source ecosystem. Enhance fiscal and tax policy support to guide increased investment from social capital. Continuously expand international cooperation in the artificial intelligence industry. It is essential to balance development and security. Strengthen governance safeguards for security, enhance risk assessment and response, advance breakthroughs in deep synthesis detection technologies, accelerate the formulation of management and service measures for AI ethics, and guide the healthy and orderly development of the industry. (Cailian Press) [National Energy Administration: Organize the First Batch of Pilot Work for New-Type Power System Construction, Encourage Pilot Projects for Next-Generation Coal Power] The National Energy Administration has organized the first batch of pilot work for new-type power system construction. Focusing on cutting-edge directions related to new-type power systems, single-direction pilots will be conducted based on typical projects, while multi-direction comprehensive pilots will be carried out in typical cities to explore new technologies and models for building new-type power systems, aiming to achieve breakthroughs. Priority will be given to key areas, initially focusing on seven directions: grid-forming technology, system-friendly new energy power stations, smart microgrids, synergy between computing power and electricity, virtual power plants, large-scale high-proportion new energy transmission, and next-generation coal power. The approach will be tailored to local conditions, selecting suitable directions for pilot projects based on regional realities and reasonably determining their scale and scope. 》Click for details [CPCA: Preliminary Estimate Shows National Passenger NEV Wholesale Sales at 1.24 Million Units in May, Up 38% YoY] Based on preliminary monthly CPCA data, the national passenger NEV wholesale sales in May are estimated at 1.24 million units, up 38% YoY and 9% MoM. The cumulative wholesale sales from January to May are estimated at 5.22 million units, up 41% YoY. On the US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.48% to 98.79. Supported by a weaker dollar and soft US data, the market grappled with increasing economic uncertainties. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 last month, the lowest since June 2024, while ADP data showed the smallest increase in US private-sector jobs in over two years. All eyes are on Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report for clues on the US Fed’s next move. On other currencies: In May 2025, the final eurozone composite PMI was revised up to 50.2, higher than the preliminary estimate of 49.5 but slightly below April’s 50.4. Although this marks the fifth consecutive month of expansion, overall growth remained marginal and the weakest since February. Manufacturing was the main driver of output growth, offsetting the first decline in services activity since November 2024. Among the four largest economies in the Eurozone, Italy and Spain achieved robust expansion, France approached stability, while Germany remained in contraction. Inflows of new business continued to decline, and job creation remained mild. The volume of outstanding work decreased at a mild pace. On the price front, input cost inflation slowed to a six-month low, while output charges rose only slightly, marking the weakest growth since October 2024. Meanwhile, business confidence improved for the first time since January 2025. (Huitong Finance) Data: Today, data including the global ANZ commodity price index annual rate for May, Australia's goods and services trade balance for April, Australia's export monthly rate for April, Australia's import monthly rate for April, China's Caixin Services PMI for May, Switzerland's unadjusted unemployment rate for May, Switzerland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May, the global leading indicator for turning points in the industrial production cycle for May, the number of job cuts announced by US companies in May (Challenger report), the European Central Bank's (ECB) main refinancing rate for June, the ECB's deposit facility rate for June, the ECB's marginal lending facility rate for June, the US trade balance for April, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31, the number of continuing jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31, Canada's trade balance for April, Canada's IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI for May, Canada's IVEY unadjusted PMI for May, and the global supply chain pressure index for May will be released. Additionally, notable events include: the US Fed releasing the Beige Book on economic conditions; the ECB announcing its interest rate decision; and ECB President Christine Lagarde holding a press conference on monetary policy. Crude Oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, with WTI down 1.06% and Brent down 1.1%. Oil prices came under pressure due to unexpectedly large increases in US gasoline and diesel inventories, OPEC's plan to boost production leading to an expansion in fuel supply, and trade tensions casting a shadow over the energy demand outlook. A report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US gasoline inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels last week, compared to analysts' expectations of a 600,000-barrel increase. Distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels, versus the expected 1 million-barrel rise. Crude oil inventories, however, fell by 4.3 million barrels, compared to analysts' forecasts of a 1 million-barrel decline. OPEC oil-producing countries plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, which also weighed on the market. Russia's oil and gas revenues fell by 35% in May, which may make Moscow more resistant to further OPEC production increases, as these moves would put pressure on crude oil prices. Additionally, some production operations in Canada that were shut down due to wildfires resumed on Wednesday. Wildfires have caused the country's production to decrease by approximately 344,000 barrels per day. (Webstock Inc.)

SMM News on June 4: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals collectively rose, with SHFE tin leading the gains with a 3.14% increase, while the gains of other metals were all within 1%. The main alumina contract rose by 2.17%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 2.55%, the main silicon metal contract rose by 2.9%, and the main polysilicon contract rose by 0.44%. The main European container shipping contract rose by 6.86%. On the ferrous metals series front, prices collectively rose, with stainless steel up by 0.59%, and the gains of other metals all exceeding 1%. Iron ore, rebar, and HRC all rose by more than 1%, with iron ore up by 1.37%, rebar up by 1.57%, and HRC up by 1.61%. Coking coal and coke surged significantly, with coking coal up by 7.19% and coke up by 5.72%. In the overseas market, as of 15:08, overseas market base metals all rose except for LME copper, which fell by 0.05%. LME tin led the gains with a 1.17% increase, while the gains of other metals were all within 1%. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:08, COMEX gold rose by 0.06%, and COMEX silver fell by 0.17%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 0.41%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.05%. Market movements as of 15:08 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Developments: [Announcement: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on June 6 regarding economic and trade cooperation between China and South Asia, as well as the 9th China-South Asia Expo] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on June 6, 2025 (Friday). Yan Dong, Vice Minister of Commerce, and Liu Yong, Vice Governor of Yunnan Province, will introduce the economic and trade cooperation between China and South Asia, as well as the 9th China-South Asia Expo, and answer questions from reporters. [PBOC's Open Market Operations Net Withdraw 600 Million Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 214.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 215.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan was realized on the day. [PBOC's Stimulus Policy Package Ensures Overall Controllable Market Liquidity in June] Against the backdrop of continued monetary policy efforts, the funding market remained loose, achieving a smooth transition across the month-end. As of the close on June 3, funding rates across all tenors declined. The DR007 weighted average rate, an indicator reflecting liquidity conditions, fell sharply by 11.49 basis points to 1.5496%. Analysts believe that overall market liquidity is controllable. It is expected that with the combined effects of precise reverse repo operations and fiscal expenditures in early June, funding rates are likely to remain low, and sentiment in the bond market may stabilize and rebound. (Cailian Press) ► On June 4, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1886 RMB per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:08, the US dollar index fell by 0.12% to 99.15. According to CCTV News, on June 3 local time, the US White House issued a statement saying that US President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivative products from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 AM EST on June 4, 2025. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said on Tuesday that the strong economy gives the US Fed time to assess how tariffs will affect inflation and growth, and he remains open to the possibility of an interest rate cut later this year. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Tuesday that inflation resulting from US import tariffs may soon become apparent, but he noted that it will take longer to see the economic slowdown caused by tariffs. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Macro: Today, data including Australia's Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP quarter-on-quarter rate, Australia's Q1 GDP year-on-year rate, Russia's May SPGI Services PMI, the final value of the UK's May SPGI Services PMI, the change in the US's May ADP employment, Canada's total reserve assets in May, Brazil's May seasonally adjusted SPGI Services PMI, the Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate on June 5, and the US's May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that: 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a Q&A session; 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook will attend the "Fed Listens" event; the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision. Crude oil: As of 15:08, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude oil down 0.39% and Brent crude oil down 0.35%. Pressured by the increase in OPEC+ production and concerns about the global economic outlook overshadowed by tariff tensions, but supported to some extent by concerns about Canadian supply. Analysts are weighing the impact of OPEC+'s production increase and the wildfire situation in Canada on oil market supply. The market still expects the wildfires that have swept across Canada since May to curb supply, despite temporary relief from wet weather. However, analysts at ING said in a client note: "This relief may be short-lived, as the weather is expected to become drier and warmer by the end of the week." Some analysts expect that the reduction in Canadian supply will offset more than half of the production increase planned by OPEC next month. Commenting on the impact of the wildfires, SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye said, "It is estimated that around 350,000 barrels per day of oil have been affected and shut down." "Against this backdrop, the scale of this supply disruption exceeds three-quarters of the production increase that OPEC+ agreed to add to the market in July." (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Aluminum prices rebound, aluminum scrap market adjusts prices differently [Aluminum Scrap Daily Review] ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] June 4: Nickel salt prices remain stable ► Rare earths remain at a stalemate upstream and downstream, prices continue to run smoothly [SMM Rare Earths Daily Review] ► Cost-driven, tungsten products such as ammonium paratungstate and tungsten powder continue to rise [SMM Tungsten Daily Review] ► Silver prices fluctuate at highs, downstream cautiously purchases and waits on the sidelines amidst rigid demand [SMM Daily Review]

SMM June 4 News: Metal Market: As of the midday close, all base metals in the domestic market rose. SHFE copper increased by 0.68%, SHFE zinc by 0.92%, SHFE aluminum by 0.63%, SHFE lead by 0.48%, SHFE tin by 2.64%, and SHFE nickel by 0.94%. In addition, alumina rose by 0.87%, lithium carbonate by 0.74%, silicon metal fell by 0.14%, and polysilicon rose by 2.52%. The ferrous metals series all rose. Iron ore increased by 0.86%, rebar by 0.61%, and HRC by 0.95%. Stainless steel rose by 0.28%. In the coking coal and coke sector: coking coal increased by 2.16%, and coke by 1.62%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:46, all LME metals rose. LME zinc increased by 0.3%, LME copper and LME lead rose slightly, LME aluminum by 0.51%, and LME tin and LME nickel both rose by 0.4%. In the precious metals sector, as of 11:46, COMEX gold increased by 0.272%, and COMEX silver by 0.12%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 0.16%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.26%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the Europe-to-Asia container shipping index rose by 5.38%, closing at 2168.8. As of 11:46 on June 4, some midday futures market movements: 》June 4 SMM Metal Spot Prices Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a discount of 130 yuan/mt to a premium of 0 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 65 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 190 yuan/mt to a discount of 170 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 180 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,295 yuan/mt, up 115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 78,180 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot Market: Inventories in Guangdong have increased significantly for four consecutive days, with current inventories up 14,300 mt from the previous low... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [Announcement: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on June 6 regarding economic and trade cooperation between China and South Asia and the 9th China-South Asia Exposition] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on June 6, 2025 (Friday). Yan Dong, Vice Minister of Commerce, and Liu Yong, Vice Governor of Yunnan Province, will introduce the economic and trade cooperation between China and South Asia and the 9th China-South Asia Exposition, and answer questions from reporters. [PBOC's Open Market Operations Net Withdraw 600 Million Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 214.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 215.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan was realized on the day. [Market Liquidity Remains Generally Controllable in June Thanks to Central Bank’s Stimulus Policy Package] Against the backdrop of continued monetary policy efforts, the funding situation remained loose, enabling a smooth transition across the month. As of the close on June 3, funding rates across all tenors declined, with the DR007 weighted average interest rate, an indicator reflecting liquidity conditions, falling sharply by 11.49 basis points to 1.5496%. Analysts believe that market liquidity remains generally controllable. It is expected that under the combined influence of precise reverse repo operations and fiscal expenditures in early June, funding rates are likely to remain low, and sentiment in the bond market may stabilize and rebound. (Financial News Agency) ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on June 4 was 7.1886 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index rose by 0.03% to 99.3. The US dollar index fluctuated rangebound, as uncertainties in the global trade situation offset the impact of US employment data boosting risk appetite. CCTV News reported that on June 3 local time, the US White House issued a statement saying that US President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%. The tariff policy took effect at 00:01 a.m. Eastern Time on June 4, 2025. US economic data showed that job openings in the US increased by 191,000 in April, but layoffs rose by 196,000, the largest increase in nine months, suggesting that conditions in the labour market are softening. The market is now focusing on the US May non-farm payrolls report due on Friday. US Fed policymakers reiterated on Tuesday that they should exercise caution in formulating monetary policy, as the trade war initiated by Trump continues to inject significant uncertainty and risks of economic weakness into the US economic outlook. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned on Tuesday that the global economic slowdown is exceeding expectations due to the severe impact of the Trump administration's trade policies on the US economy, exacerbating market concerns about the global economy. The OECD forecasts that the US economy is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 2.2%. Global economic growth is expected to be 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, lower than the previous forecasts of 3.1% (for 2025) and 3.0% (for 2026) made in March this year. Other currencies: The final reading of Japan's services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May was revised up to 51.0. Although this is lower than April's 52.4, it is an improvement from the preliminary reading of 50.8, indicating that service sector activity expanded for the second consecutive month. Driven by the upward revision of Japan's services data and increased safe-haven demand, the yen rebounded mildly in the Asian session on Wednesday, exerting downward pressure on the US dollar. Despite the cautious stance expressed by the Bank of Japan Governor, market expectations for an interest rate hike in 2025 still persist. Meanwhile, the US dollar is constrained by expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, concerns over the US fiscal deficit, and uncertainties surrounding trade tensions, limiting the upside of the USD/JPY pair to the resistance zone of 144.30. (Huitong Finance) Data Releases: Today, data including Australia's Q1 seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate, Q1 year-on-year GDP growth rate, Russia's SPGI Services PMI for May, the final UK SPGI Services PMI for May, the US ADP employment change for May, Canada's total reserve assets for May, Brazil's seasonally adjusted SPGI Services PMI for May, the Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate on June 5, and the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for May will be released. Additionally, notable events include: FOMC voter for 2025 and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee participating in a Q&A session; FOMC voter for 2027 and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, along with Fed Governor Lisa Cook, attending the "Fed Listens" event; and the Bank of Canada announcing its interest rate decision. Crude Oil: As of 11:46, crude oil futures have all dropped slightly, with US crude oil down 0.33% and Brent crude oil down 0.32%. Oil prices have declined due to the loosening of the supply-demand balance following an increase in OPEC production and lingering concerns over the global economic outlook amid tariff tensions. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed a decline in US crude oil inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose. The API report indicated that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels, and distillate inventories rose by approximately 760,000 barrels in the week ending May 30. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release crude oil inventory data on Wednesday. Surveys suggest that analysts expect US crude oil inventories to have declined by approximately 1 million barrels in the week ending May 30. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► Inventories continue to rise sharply, with spot premiums falling continuously [SMM South China Copper Spot] ► Market demand remains weak, with spot premiums and discounts plummeting [SMM North China Copper Spot] ► Copper cathode rod exports continue to grow positively on a YoY basis. Can the upward trend continue in May amid tariff concerns? [SMM Analysis] Other metal spot noon reviews will be updated later. Please refresh to view.