SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 20–24, 2026. Middle East conflict escalation and tight Indonesian nickel ore supply keep the benchmark contract elevated near a two-week high, though it slips RMB 105/mt over the week of July 20–24 as social inventories tip back into a build.

China’s NPI prices have remained firm despite falling production costs because freely available inventories have tightened. FeNi, meanwhile, has followed lower benchmark nickel prices and faced competition from cheaper refined nickel, compressing its premium over NPI. The divergence could reverse as Chinese output rises and Indonesian producers switch capacity back to NPI.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 13–17, 2026. Cooling US inflation and tight Indonesian nickel ore supply push the benchmark contract up RMB 450/mt in the week.

[7.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June PPI declined 0.3% MoM, the first drop since last year, while market expectations were for a flat reading; June PPI rose 5.5% YoY, significantly narrowing from the 6.5% in May; June core PPI YoY growth slowed to 4.7%, with only a 0.2% MoM increase, both below market expectations. On July 16, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract surged in early trading, breaking through 130,000 yuan/mt and briefly hitting 133,000 yuan/mt, with a morning gain of 2.9%; LME nickel simultaneously held above $17,000/mt, rising about 2.5% in early trading. Recently, macro, policy, and cost-side positives re-emerged. Combined with a MACD golden cross, nickel prices holding above the 10-day moving average, and bearish funds taking profits, nickel prices have rebound momentum. However, weak demand and high inventory continue to cap upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade within a 127,000–137,000 yuan/mt range. Going forward, attention will focus on the results of Indonesia's July RKAB quota approval and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

[SMM Nickel Flash] SMM learned that Typhoon Bavi caused limited disruption to the production of domestic high-grade NPI and stainless steel mills, with only a few plants in certain regions temporarily suspending production for 1-3 days, without impacting the overall supply-demand pattern. However, the typhoon led to varying degrees of delay in the shipment schedules of imported nickel pig iron over the past half month. With port shipping gradually resuming, the tightness in spot cargo is expected to ease to some extent in the latter half of the month after nickel pig iron concentrates arrive at the port.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 6–10, 2026. Weak nickel prices and soft off-season demand drag the benchmark contract down RMB 310/mt, breaking below the RMB 14,500/mt support level in the week of July 6–10.