[8.4 Morning Briefing] Trump stated that an agreement has been reached regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and an agreement on denuclearization will also be reached, with negotiations scheduled to begin on Monday afternoon; Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-conflict state, and the new shipping lane agreed with Oman will be determined through mutual consultations. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged below 130,000 yuan in the morning session, closing at 129,520 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session, down 1.91%. As U.S.-Iran negotiations begin, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume navigation, sulfur cost support has weakened, and nickel prices have fallen sharply. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

[7.29 Morning Meeting Minutes] The US Fed is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a press conference as usual at 2:30 a.m., which has been dubbed by the industry as the most unpredictable Fed decision. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged sharply in the night session, with prices gradually rebounding in the morning session before closing at 131,660 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. The short-term trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2609) is expected to be 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

[7.28 Morning Meeting Minutes] On July 24, Trump ordered a suspension of airstrikes on Iran (following 13 consecutive nights of strikes), primarily due to the depletion of air defense interceptor reserves and to leave room for diplomatic negotiations. Iran announced a suspension of reciprocal strikes on the 26th. Brent crude oil plunged 5% at Monday's open to around $92, and WTI fell to around $84.70. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract fell in morning trading, closing at 132,170 yuan/mt, down 0.42%. The US-Iran conflict has pressed pause, crude oil prices dropped significantly, and as sulfur cost support weakened, nickel prices pulled back. The US Fed will hold its July FOMC meeting on July 29, and the market widely expects interest rates to remain unchanged, easing macro pressure. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt in the near term.

[7.27 Morning Briefing] The central bank announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 24, 2026, the People's Bank of China conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1-year tenor via fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple price bidding. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged during the night session, but rebounded slightly by the morning close to 132,610 yuan/mt, up 0.2%. Nickel inventories have continued destocking recently, supporting a rebound in nickel prices; meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict and the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz have once again raised concerns over sulfur supply disruptions, and nickel prices are holding up well in the short term.

The SMM average price for 10-12% high-grade NPI fell WoW by 2.2 yuan/nickel unit to 1,127.2 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index price average fell WoW by $0.42/nickel unit to $145.34/nickel unit.

[July 23 Morning Briefing] Indonesia's Finance Minister Purbaya stated on Tuesday in his concluding speech during the bill debate that the establishment of the Indonesian International Financial Center (Pusat Finansial Indonesia Internasional, PFII) would attract foreign capital flows and sustainable investment portfolios, which would serve as a long-term funding source, expand the country's economic output, and enable Indonesia's economy to grow more rapidly. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract drifted higher during the morning session, and as of the morning close it reported 131,860 yuan/mt, up 1.36%. Base metals strengthened across the board, with funds buying low-valuation varieties on dips, driving a phased valuation repair in nickel prices. Meanwhile, nickel futures drifted higher on the news of Indonesian quotas.