Policy Intensity Reshaping the Landscape, Costs Returning to Highs, and Structural Tightening of Market Supply

[SMM Analysis: NPI Prices Rose Sharply, Market Shifted to High-Level Standoff] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose 30.5 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,150.5 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price rose 3.58 $/nickel unit WoW to 146.78 $/nickel unit. This week, policies and futures drove prices steadily higher, with the NPI price center moving further up.

Nickel Ore " Transition in Pricing Systems and Standardization of Pyrometallurgical Ore Benchmarks; Convergence of Iron, Cobalt, and Chrome Elements " 1. Price Dynamics and HMA Revisions The Indonesian nickel market experienced overall price volatility this week. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Mineral Benchmark Price (HMA) for the first half of May 2026. Nickel HMA: $17,802/dmt (up $868.57 or 5.13% from $16,933.57 in late April). Cobalt HMA: $55,854/dmt. Iron Ore HMA: $1.56/dmt. Chrome Ore HMA: $6.37/dmt. Current port-delivered prices for 1.6% grade pyrometallurgical ore (saprolite) stand at $74.5–$77.5/wmt, an increase of $1 from last week, remaining largely stable. In contrast, 1.2% grade hydrometallurgical ore (limonite) is priced at approximately $28.33/wmt, down $2 from the previous week. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impacts Pyrometallurgical Ore: As the rainy season concludes in Halmahera and Sulawesi, mine production is expected to rebound significantly in May. Despite RKAB approvals reaching 90%, spot supply for high-grade saprolite remains tight. However, market expectations for easing supply have strengthened. Notably, the average grade of ore accepted by smelters has begun to trend downward. While the decline is not yet significant, some smelters have started blending low-grade ore to mitigate the pressure of high-grade shortages and surging costs. Current pricing follows either a "fixed price" or "HPM + $7–$10 premium" model. Furthermore, some smelters are implementing standardized benchmarks for pyrometallurgical ore (Cobalt 0.05%, Iron 20%, Chrome 1%), regardless of actual ore variations. Bon have shrunk to minimal levels as most are now covered by fixed premiums. Hydrometallurgical Ore: Limonite prices have trended downward, failing to follow the uptick in the new HPM. Demand is under pressure due to potential MHP production cuts caused by a sulfuric acid shortage in May. With relatively stable inventories, smelters continue to exert strong downward pressure on prices. 3. SMM Internal Estimates The new pricing formula has led to increased price divergence and amplified volatility, particularly influenced by higher associated cobalt content in certain ores. SMM calculations show that the new HPM for 1.2% grade limonite is approximately $47.82, significantly higher than current market assessments. The new HPM for 1.6% grade saprolite is $64.85; the inclusion of higher cobalt content in the new formula has markedly amplified price fluctuations. While actual market transaction prices currently remain above this benchmark, the gap is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quotas (RKAB) and Market Outlook According to the ESDM, RKAB approvals for 2026 have reached approximately 90%. SMM statistics indicate that the total approved quota for Indonesian nickel ore stands at roughly 230–240 million wmt. The final quota is widely expected to be finalized by the end of April. Due to the convergence of reduced RKAB expectations, resource uncertainty, and high-grade ore shortages, some smelters have increased trade dividends and premiums to secure supply. The market is closely monitoring Weda Bay Nickel (WBN) . Due to a severely depleted RKAB quota for 2026, WBN plans to enter a "maintenance and care" phase starting in May. The company is actively pursuing a quota increase to alleviate the ore shortage at the IWIP industrial park. During this period, its downstream NPI plants will consume existing strategic inventories to maintain operations. 5. Regulatory Revisions: PP 19/2025 On May 8, the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal held a public hearing on the revision of PP 19/2025 , seeking feedback on adjustments to mineral royalty rates. Nickel Ore: The revision proposes lowering the minimum HMA threshold from <$18,000/t to <$16,000/t, and the maximum threshold from ≥$31,000/t to ≥$26,000/t. The tax tiers would be refined from 5 to 6 levels, with rates ranging from 14% to 19%. Impact: Based on today’s Nickel HMA of $17,802, the applicable royalty rate would rise from 14% to 15% if the revision is implemented. Additional Provisions: A 2% independent levy is proposed for cobalt in nickel matte and non-nickel smelting products, while a 2.5% tax rate is proposed for alloy pig iron. The impact on mainstream NPI projects will depend on Indonesia’s final product classification criteria. Nickel Pig Iron " NPI Average Prices Rally Strongly; Market Enters High-Level Deadlock " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price increased by RMB 30.5 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1150.5 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index increased by USD 3.58 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 146.78 per nickel unit. This week, the high-nickel pig iron market first declined and then rose. This week, favorable policies and exchange movements drove prices steadily higher, pushing the price center further up. However, by the end of the week, the market transitioned from a unilateral uptrend into a high-level deadlock. Upstream producers maintained a strong stance on pricing, with some anchoring their target at RMB 1,200/nickel unit and showing a high reluctance to sell. Conversely, downstream stainless steel mills showed weak acceptance of these high prices. Having completed their initial restocking, these mills saw a decline in procurement appetite, with the maximum acceptable price being limited. Additionally, a correction in the exchange market fueled "fear of heights" (market caution); despite active inquiries, actual transaction volumes were significantly lower than those seen before the holiday. The price gap between high and low-grade materials widened further, intensifying the structural divergence of supply. Looking ahead, while cost support remains, demand follow-through is insufficient. NPI prices are expected to remain in a high-level tug-of-war in the short term. Based on high-nickel pig iron cash costs calculated from nickel ore prices 25 days ago, smelter profit margins continued to recover this week, with many operations returning to profitability. On the raw material side, auxiliary material prices rose, while ore prices remained stable in the Philippines and saw a slight correction in Indonesia. Overall, the expansion of domestic smelter profits this week was primarily driven by the upward shift in NPI prices coupled with lower raw material costs. For next week, raw material prices are unlikely to see significant increases, and NPI prices are expected to remain at high levels, which should lead to further improvements in smelter profit margins. ​​​​​​​

Based on SMM research, the week of April 20 to April 24, 2026, Indonesian stainless steel export prices followed a stable then surging trend. While quotations remained steady early in the week due to prevailing market caution, they collectively rose by USD30/mt by Friday (April 24). This increase was driven by rising nickel ore prices, which pushed NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) production costs higher, lifting FOB Indonesia 300-series prices. Notably, driven by rising global molybdenum costs, 316-series prices are now approaching the USD4,000/mt threshold. Image 1: Review of FOB Indonesia 304 Stainless Steel Prices in April Image 2: Review of FOB Indonesia 316 Stainless Steel Prices in April The upward momentum in overseas stainless steel prices stems from structural tightening at the raw material end. The official implementation of Indonesia’s new Nickel Ore Pricing Formula (HPM), coupled with the announced suspension of operations for maintenance at a major Indonesian nickel mine starting in May, has caused an abrupt tightening of ore supply. This supply crunch is propagating down the value chain, supporting firm NPI quotations and directly inflating the immediate steelmaking costs for mills. On the demand side, the Southeast Asian downstream market is currently in an inventory depletion phase. Upstream mills maintain a strong stance on pricing, pushing for further hikes toward the end of the week. Conversely, downstream buyers remain resistant to these high price levels, restricting procurement to hand-to-mouth replenishment. According to SMM research, local DDP 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices in Malaysia are currently ranging between RM 9.50 and RM 10.50/kg . The European market has witnessed a slight trend of defensive restocking. The core driver is the impending expiry of the current EU TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) on June 30 . Starting July 1 , the updated policy is expected to see quotas slashed by nearly half and potential tax rates doubled. To hedge against high tariff risks in the second half of the year, European traders have recently concentrated purchases on cargoes arriving before the end of June, triggering a counter-seasonal inventory buildup. SMM reports that local DDP 304 CRC prices in Europe are hovering between €2,700 and €2,900/mt . Market activity in Taiwan, China remains relatively subdued, with buyers prioritizing the consumption of existing stocks and showing little appetite for restocking. Although upstream mills continue to raise April ex-factory prices, pushing local 304 CRC prices to a range of NT$ 69,300 to NT$ 74,000/mt, the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers has overshadowed replenishment needs now that prices have hit historical highs, significantly limiting market liquidity. Overall transaction dynamics this week reflect a stark imbalance between the upstream and downstream sectors. Upstream mills, driven by cost pressures, remain firm in their pricing strategies, while downstream buyers maintain a cautious stance, sticking to essential-only purchasing. Given that May list prices have been released and mills remain resolute in their pricing, coupled with the pre-June 30 policy-driven hedging demand in Europe, overseas prices are expected to remain elevated in the short term. SMM anticipates that overseas stainless steel quotations will continue to fluctuate within a high-side range.

Based on SMM Research, stainless steel prices in Southeast Asia are expected to rise USD20–40/ton next week. Continued strength in nickel ore prices has driven up NPI production costs, underpinning overall stainless steel cost levels and fuelling upward price expectations.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Geopolitical Risks Eased, SS Futures Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Stainless Steel Spot Transactions Recovered SMM April 22 reported that SS futures showed a trend of stopping falling and rebounding. The US-Iran conflict cooled down, with the US announcing an indefinite ceasefire and Iran suspending military operations. Influenced by this, non-ferrous futures strengthened, and SS futures rose in tandem. As of the morning session close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,920 yuan/mt. Spot market side, although SS futures stopped falling today, futures prices had already pulled back from earlier levels. In addition, after stainless steel spot prices surged significantly, downstream acceptance was low and transactions were weak. However, traders held low-priced cargoes from earlier periods and had room to offer concessions, so spot quotes pulled back accordingly, with inquiries and transactions recovering somewhat. The most-traded SS contract stopped falling and strengthened. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,885 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 35-235 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted stable in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The current stainless steel market is in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April." Driven by futures, spot quotes strengthened somewhat, but cautious wait-and-see sentiment among downstream end-users persisted, with concerns over short-term price fluctuations and purchases yet to materialize...