Philippine Nickel Ore Market: Ample Inventories at Chinese and Indonesian Smelters, Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers Driving Nickel Ore Prices Under Pressure Philippine nickel ore prices declined this week. Price-wise, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes: Ni 1.3% grade at $53-56/wmt, Ni 1.4% grade at $61-64/wmt, Ni 1.5% grade at $68-71/wmt. In addition, the 1.3% grade CIF average price from the Philippines to Indonesia was quoted at $48-50/wmt, and the 1.4% grade CIF average price at $56-58/wmt. Recently, Philippine nickel ore prices have generally faced downward pressure. In terms of supply, as the rainy season ended in major producing areas, shipments of Philippine nickel ore increased significantly. Most mines resumed normal shipping, effectively easing the previously tight supply situation. Meanwhile, demand side, large smelters from China and Indonesia were leveraging ample inventories and favorable supply availability in the market to push for lower prices. As buyers on both sides only accepted lower prices, miners had to compromise. In terms of export flows, nickel ore shipments to Indonesia were relatively low this week, indicating a slow procurement pace in the Indonesian market. Given the still-weak recovery in nickel ore shipments to Indonesia, bearish market sentiment is expected to drag nickel ore prices further down. Inventory side, as of May 8 (Friday), nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 4.55 million mt, up 150,000 mt WoW, with total port inventory equivalent to approximately 35,700 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China's NPI prices continued to rise overall this week, while spot transaction prices edged down to 1,146 yuan/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market overall hovered at highs this week, with significant divergence between sellers and buyers. The price center shifted slightly lower amid the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, and overall market sentiment remained subdued. Smelters' continued push for lower prices on the raw material side caused the nickel ore CIF price center to shift further downward. As a result, Philippine ore FOB price support was extremely lacking. Considering destocking and maintaining trade turnover, miners are expected to make concessions in subsequent quotes. Currently, bearish sentiment dominates the market, and there remains room for further downside in prices in the short term. Prices are expected to maintain a downward trend in May. Indonesian Nickel Ore Market: Indonesian Nickel Benchmark Price Breaks Through $18,000, Extreme Weather and Policy Dynamics Intensify Price Divergence Indonesian nickel ore market prices fluctuated overall this week. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially released the nickel mineral benchmark price (HMA) for the second half of May 2026. The HMA for the first half of May was: nickel at $18,849.3/mt (up $1,047.15 from the first period of May 2026 at $17,802.14, a 5.88% increase); cobalt at $55,854/mt; iron ore at $1.58/mt; chrome ore at $6.37/mt. Currently, the CIF price of 1.6%-grade saprolite ore reached $77.8–80.8/wmt, up $3.3 from last week. The price of 1.2%-grade limonite ore was approximately $28.33/wmt, flat from last week. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impact Saprolite ore: Production from major mines is expected to edge up in May. Although Indonesia has largely entered the dry season, abnormally heavy rainfall hit the central and southern Sulawesi region mid-week. As a result, land transportation and barge transshipment plans at some small and medium-sized mines were forced to halt. Despite RKAB approval progress reaching 90%, spot supply of high-grade saprolite ore remains tight; nevertheless, market expectations for easing supply have strengthened notably compared to earlier periods. Notably, the average grade of ore accepted by smelters has begun to trend downward. Although the decline is not yet significant, some smelters have started blending low-grade ore into their raw materials to alleviate the pressure from high-grade ore shortages and surging costs. Pricing side, smelters currently primarily adopt fixed pricing or a "HPM + $7–10 premium" model. Additionally, some smelters have begun implementing uniform saprolite ore benchmark specifications (cobalt 0.05%, iron 20%, chromium 1%), regardless of differences in actual ore output from individual mines. Furthermore, composition bonuses in the market have been reduced to minimal levels, as most bonuses are already incorporated into the fixed premium. Overall, as HMA has already breached the $18,000/mt threshold and the nickel ore royalty has risen to 15%, downside room for Indonesian nickel ore prices is limited in the short term. Limonite ore: Limonite ore prices declined and did not follow the increase in the new HPM. Affected by a potential sulphuric acid supply deficit in May that could lead to MHP production cuts, limonite ore demand was under pressure. Against a backdrop of relatively stable inventory, smelters continued to push for lower prices aggressively. 3. SMM Internal Estimates: The new formula led to ore price divergence and amplified fluctuations (particularly affected by the relatively high associated cobalt content in certain ores). SMM estimates showed that the new HPM for 1.2%-grade limonite ore was approximately $49.95, already significantly higher than actual market assessed prices; the new HPM for 1.6%-grade saprolite ore was $70.83, and under the new pricing formula, price fluctuations were notably amplified due to the higher cobalt content in certain ores. Although current actual market transaction prices remain above this benchmark, the gap between the two is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quota (RKAB) and Market Outlook: Indonesia's ESDM indicated that the 2026 RKAB approval progress has reached approximately 90%. According to SMM statistics, the cumulative approved RKAB quota for Indonesian nickel ore totalled approximately 230–240 million wmt. The market widely expects the final quota to be officially finalised by month-end of April. Affected by the combined impact of expectations of RKAB quota reductions, resource uncertainty, and the shortage of high-grade ore, some smelters have already begun raising trade premiums and surcharges to secure supply sources. The market has recently been closely watching the announcement by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia on Monday (May 11, 2026) that the government will postpone its plan to impose export duties (bea keluar) on nickel downstream products in order to formulate a reasonable pricing formula that is a "win-win" for both the country and enterprises. Although this tariff is intended to drive the transformation of the nickel industry, which currently achieves only 40% deep processing, toward higher value-added products (such as moving beyond merely producing NPI), the government decided to temporarily "shelve" the proposal after hearing industry opinions.

The Full End of the Philippines' Rainy Season, Coupled With the Fuel Emergency, May Put Downward Pressure on Nickel Ore Prices The Full End of the Philippines' Rainy Season, Coupled With the Fuel Emergency, May Put Downward Pressure on Nickel Ore Prices This week, Philippine nickel ore prices edged down. In terms of prices, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotations were $64-67/wmt for Ni 1.3% grade, $71-74/wmt for Ni 1.4% grade, and $78-81/wmt for Ni 1.5% grade. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $65.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $72.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Weather side, weather conditions in the Philippines improved significantly this week WoW. Rainfall in major mining areas such as Surigao, Homonhon, and Tawi-Tawi trended lower, while Zambales and Palawan remained relatively dry. This shift indicated that major mining areas had gradually entered the mining season, releasing room for nickel ore supply. Demand side, despite elevated freight costs, several Chinese smelters had already started procurement. As of Friday, March 27, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 4.63 million mt, down 190,000 mt WoW. Current total port inventory was equivalent to about 36,400 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, domestic NPI prices were basically flat this week, while spot transaction prices fell by about 1,083.5 yuan per nickel unit. Smelters' acceptance of high-priced raw materials had peaked, which may prompt slight concessions in CIF prices, and nickel ore FOB and CIF prices are expected to be more likely to fall than rise in the short term. Indonesia Market: Delayed RKAB Approval Progress, Coupled With Expectations for Policy Transition, Is Expected to Further Lift the Price Center of Nickel Ore This week, prices of Indonesia's local nickel ore rose. Indonesia's nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the second half of March was set at $17,329/dmt, up 1.32% MoM. According to SMM's Indonesia nickel ore premium data, average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were quoted at $36, $40, and $40.5/wmt, respectively. Among them, the domestic-trade port-arrival price for 1.6% grade was $67.6-74.6/wmt. The simultaneous strengthening of both premiums this month reflected the release of smelters' restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota cuts, while the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up in tandem to $25-27/wmt. From supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 27, 2026, weather conditions across Indonesia's nickel mining areas were as follows: Morowali was expected to see cumulative rainfall of 0.065-0.08 this week, and strong thunderstorms would severely affect open-pit mining and ore transportation; Konawe had scattered showers, with rainfall of about 0.03-0.045 this week; Halmahera was the most stable, mainly cloudy with light rain. The market is currently facing a clear trend of declining grades. Although some NPI smelters had begun accepting nickel ore with grades of 1.45% and below, saprolite ore remained tight in March. At present, as of mid-March, ESDM had approved about 100 million mt of RKAB nickel ore quotas, and the remaining 160 million-170 million mt is expected to complete approval before month-end. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr holiday from March 18 to 24, approval progress may be delayed, making it difficult for the tight supply situation to ease in the short term. Demand side, as some Indonesian smelters faced resource uncertainty and had difficulty obtaining high-grade nickel ore, prices remained strong. To secure raw material supply, some smelters even raised trading bonuses. In addition, some transactions of low-grade humic soil ore also emerged in the market, with fixed prices relatively lower than those of high-grade ore. Limonite ore prices remained at low levels, mainly due to the tailings dam landslide accident at an MHP project in a certain industrial park, which kept related production lines running at low operating rates and hindered the rebound in demand. However, considering RKAB uncertainty, stockpiling demand from new projects, and growing demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices are expected to stay high later by following saprolite ore. Policy side, although rumors about the implementation and delayed release of the new tax regime continued, the specific implementation rules were still under internal review by relevant ministries. Although execution details for specific products such as NPI and MHP still awaited finalisation across ministries, current policy signals may indicate that the era of tax-free exports for Indonesia's nickel intermediate products is about to come to an end. Looking ahead, Indonesia's continued policy tightening is expected to open upside room for nickel ore prices and have a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain.

Philippines Market: Tight Supply and Surging Freight Rates Supported Ore Prices to Fluctuate at Highs Philippine nickel ore prices rose sharply this week. In terms of prices, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes were $64-68/wmt for Ni 1.3% grade, $71-75/wmt for Ni 1.4% grade, and $78-82/wmt for Ni 1.5% grade, up $6 WoW. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $65.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $72.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Supply side, although the Philippines was transitioning into the dry season, mining hubs such as Surigao and Homonhon continued to see heavy rainfall due to a low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao. Although Metro Manila and most parts of Luzon saw hot and sunny weather, the probability of rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Surigao and Caraga remained “very high.” Strong thunderstorms and scattered precipitation were expected to further intensify during March 9 to 13. Affected by the trough of the low-pressure area and the easterlies, persistent rainfall may continue to disrupt open-pit mining and vessel loading operations in southern regions. Market supply remained scarce. Driven by both supply tightness caused by cuts in Indonesia’s RKAB quotas and expected supply gaps, mainstream prices for Philippine nickel ore have surged recently. As of Friday, March 13, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 5.23 million mt, down 500,000 mt WoW. Current total port inventory was equivalent to about 41,100 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China’s NPI prices rose this week, with spot transaction prices up about 1,089.9 yuan per nickel unit. As smelters had sufficient stockpiling earlier and showed limited acceptance of recently high-priced nickel ore, most were currently taking a wait-and-see stance. In terms of ocean freight rates, affected by a sharp jump in oil prices, nickel ore freight rates climbed, with the ocean freight rate from the Philippines to Lianyungang reaching $15/mt or above. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs. Indonesia Market: Under Weather Disruptions and RKAB Policy Clarification, Tight Supply Continued Indonesia's local nickel ore prices rose somewhat this week. Indonesia’s nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the first half of March was set at $17,104/dmt, down 3.21% MoM. According to SMM Indonesia nickel ore premium data, average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively. Among them, the port arrivals under domestic trade price for 1.6% grade was $65.2-74.2/wmt. The simultaneous strengthening in premiums this month reflected both the release of smelters’ restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota cuts, while the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up to $24-26/wmt. From the supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 13, Indonesia’s key nickel ore producing areas of Morowali, Konawe, and Halmahera were affected this week by strong thunderstorms and extremely high humidity of up to 94%. Weather continued to fluctuate, causing soil to become highly saturated and seriously hindering mine drying and transport operations. Morowali and Konawe will face a heavy rainfall system over the weekend with precipitation probability as high as 80%, while Halmahera, under high-humidity conditions, is expected to see rainfall intensity rebound again next Friday, with overall logistics capacity remaining constrained. At present, RKAB approvals for most small- and medium-sized mines remained pending. As existing quotas could no longer be used for next month’s production and sales, rising supply uncertainty was pushing nickel ore prices higher. Demand side, as some Indonesian smelters faced uncertainty over nickel ore resources and found it difficult to secure high-grade saprolite ore, nickel ore prices remained firm. To secure raw material supply, some smelters even raised trading bonuses. Overall, although the impact of the current MOMS system failure on mines had largely faded, overall nickel ore supply remained tight. Although spot supply of limonite ore was relatively sufficient, some related production lines were currently running at low load due to a tailings dam landslide accident at some MHP projects in an Indonesian industrial park, leading to temporary weakness in overall demand. However, considering concerns among some Indonesian smelters over RKAB approval uncertainty, raw material stockpiling demand from newly commissioned projects, and continued growth in demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices are expected to closely track saprolite ore and remain high. On the policy side, in response to recent market rumors that “production quotas (RKAB) will be uniformly supplemented by an additional 25%-30%,” Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), clarified on March 3, 2026, that RKAB supplements would be based on individual assessments of enterprise production capacity and compliance, rather than a uniform proportional increase, and indicated that the approval process would start in H2 2026. Officials emphasized that this was a routine regulatory process for resource optimization, rather than a passive countermeasure to the previous output cap policy. Looking ahead, affected by the relatively slow progress of RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices are expected to remain more likely to rise than fall in April.

Philippine Ore Prices Strengthened Sharply, With Multiple Supply-Side Risks Supporting the Cost Floor Philippine nickel ore prices rose sharply this week. In terms of pricing, Philippine nickel ore CIF China: NI 1.3% grade at $58-63/wmt, NI 1.4% grade at $65-69/wmt, and NI 1.5% grade at $72-76/wmt, up $4 from the previous week. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $62.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $69.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Supply side, the Philippines was in a transition to the dry season, but affected by a developing low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao, heavy rainfall continued in mining hubs such as Surigao and Homonhon Island. Although Metro Manila and most of Luzon had sunny and hot weather, the probability of weekly rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Surigao and the Caraga region was “high to extremely high,” and strong thunderstorms and scattered rainfall were expected to further intensify from March 9 to 13. Influenced by the LPA trough and the Dongfeng, this persistent rainy weather could continue to disrupt open-pit mining and vessel loading operations in the southern regions mentioned above. Currently, available spot cargo in the market was limited; coupled with the tightness in nickel ore supply and a potential demand gap driven by expectations of RKAB quota cuts in Indonesia, mainstream prices for Philippine nickel ore have risen markedly in recent periods. As of Friday, March 6, China’s port nickel ore inventory stood at 5.73 million mt, down 370,000 mt WoW. Current total port nickel ore inventory was equivalent to metal content of about 45,000 mt Ni. Demand side, domestic NPI prices rose this week, while spot transaction prices fell by about 1,092.6 yuan/nickel unit. From the perspective of smelters’ procurement departments, given ample earlier stockpiling and limited acceptance of recently extremely high-priced ore, most were currently staying on the sidelines. In terms of ocean freight rates, ocean freight rates rose sharply recently due to the situation in Iran, with the ocean freight rate from the Philippines to Tianjin Port at $11/mt. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs. Indonesia Market: Tight Supply and Demand Drove Premiums Higher; Authorities Clarified the RKAB Supplement Mechanism Indonesia's local nickel ore prices rose significantly this month. For the first half of March, the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) was set at $17,104/dmt, down 3.21% MoM. According to SMM data on Indonesia nickel ore premiums, the average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $34, $38, and $38.5/dmt, respectively. Among them, the port arrivals under domestic trade price for 1.6% grade was $65.2–72.2/wmt. The dual strengthening of premiums this month reflected the release of smelters’ restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota reductions; meanwhile, the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up in tandem to $24–26/wmt. Supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 6, Sulawesi and Halmahera were in a period of wild swings at the tail end of the rainy season, and intermittent heavy rainfall continued to hinder mine logistics. Morowali was currently overcast with extremely high humidity (94%); although rainfall remained light for now, a strong rainfall system was expected around March 13, with precipitation reaching 48 mm. Konawe likewise remained mostly cloudy with daily thunderstorms. Meanwhile, Halmahera was set to face a high-precipitation weekend, with the probability of thunderstorms as high as 65% on March 7–8. Although Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecast that the dry season would arrive earlier in April, the above areas were still unable to reach full-load mining and loading capacity due to highly saturated soil moisture and localized gusts. Under the dual pressure of tight tradable availability and uncertainty over RKAB quotas, some NPI smelters were forced to significantly step up procurement this month to secure raw material supply. While spot supply of limonite ore was relatively ample, a tailings dam landslide incident at certain MHP projects in an Indonesian industrial park kept the relevant production lines operating at low load, resulting in a phase of overall demand weakness. However, considering concerns among some Indonesian smelters over uncertainty in RKAB approvals, raw material stockpiling needs for newly commissioned projects, and continued growth in demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices were expected to closely track saprolite ore and remain elevated. Policy side, regarding recent widespread market rumors that “production quotas (RKAB) will be uniformly increased by an additional 25%–30%,” Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), clarified on March 3, 2026 that RKAB increases would be based on individual assessments of enterprises’ production capability and compliance, rather than a uniform proportional increase, and indicated that the approval process would begin in H2 2026. Officials emphasized that this move was a routine regulatory process to optimize resources, not a passive offset against the previous production cap policy.

On May 30, 2025, the nickel ore inventory at ports nationwide decreased by 40,000 wmt compared to May 23, reaching 5.94 million wmt. The total metal content was 46,680 mt (metal content). In the Philippines, significant precipitation across the country last week largely affected shipping conditions. This week, the volume of nickel ore arriving at ports decreased. Domestic NPI enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, resulting in a slight destocking at ports. 》Check SMM nickel quotes, data, and market analysis 》Click to view the SMM nickel industry chain database

[Morning Meeting Minutes on May 13] In terms of supply, although there was precipitation at major nickel ore loading points in the Philippines, with relatively heavy rainfall in areas such as Sta Cruz, Eastern Davao, and Tawi Tawi, the rainfall in the Surigao region decreased compared to previous weeks. Overall, following the reduction in rainfall in Surigao, the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is expected to increase. On the demand side, with the continuous decline in downstream NPI prices and the deepening of the inversion margin, the sentiment of domestic NPI smelters regarding raw material procurement has been dampened, and the support for nickel ore prices from the demand side continues to weaken. Looking ahead, the domestic transaction prices of nickel ore in the Philippines may be dragged down by the downstream sector and operate under pressure.