[SMM Nickel Flash] This week, auxiliary material prices were generally stable with slight rise, while market sentiment in the coking coal and coke markets improved, and coke producers showed a stronger willingness to increase prices. Ore side, Philippine ore prices edged lower, while Indonesian nickel ore prices continued to rise. Meanwhile, downstream high-grade NPI prices remained under pressure, and amid cost uncertainties caused by high freight rates and geopolitical conflicts, smelter profit margins were squeezed.

[SMM Nickel Flash] In China, disruptions in nickel ore-related news continued. Supported by costs, upstream quotations were firm for a time, but steel scrap supply in the market increased significantly. Under the dual pressure from end-users and the cost advantage of steel scrap, upstream quotations for high-grade NPI gradually showed signs of weakening.

Nickel Ore " Sluggish RKAB Approvals Drive Potential for Ore Price Hikes" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is recovering from previous floods. However, Halmahera continues to be hampered by thunderstorms, resulting in high moisture content and dragging down mining efficiency. The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Although the spot supply of hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. However, given the concerns over RKAB approval uncertainty, the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and the growing demand from outer islands, hydrometallurgical ore prices are expected to follow the trend of pyrometallurgical ore and remain elevated. On March 3, 2026, Tri Winarno, Director General of Mineral and Coal, clarified that rumors of a "25%–30% universal increase in RKAB quotas" are false. Quota supplements will be based on individualized assessments of production capacity and compliance, with the approval process not expected to start until the second half of 2026. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices in April are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "NPI Prices See Periodic Retracement as Tug-of-War Intensifies Between Cost Support and Downstream Pressure​​​​​​​" The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 0.3 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1090.2 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.65 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.28 per nickel unit. This week, following consecutive price drops in stainless steel finished products and LME/SHFE nickel, the High-Grade NPI market experienced panic selling and low-price liquidation, entering a phase of periodic decline. From the supply side, With ore prices remaining elevated, smelter production costs continue to rise. However, triggered by the sharp decline in futures markets, some traders began offloading arbitrage stocks at low prices, leading to a general softening of upstream quotes.From the demand side, Weighed down by falling stainless steel prices and the influx of low-priced spot goods, most steel mills have lowered their bid intentions, exerting downward pressure on NPI prices. Overall, while cost support for smelters remains, downstream suppression is evident. The combination of futures-driven market sentiment and loosening upstream quotes has led to a periodic retracement in High-Grade NPI Overall outlook, market transactions will remain under pressure in the short term as the cost-tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues. However, the downward room for NPI prices is expected to be limited.

[SMM Nickel Flash] March 13 News: Supply side, as rising ore prices provided strong cost support, upstream offer prices remained firm. Demand side, as market activity gradually rebounded, steel mills' indicative prices also saw some increases. Overall, market trading activity gradually recovered, and high-grade NPI prices were supported.

[SMM Nickel Flash] March 12 News: Supply side, upstream quotations remained at elevated levels. Demand side, transaction prices and indicative prices at most steel mills stayed below 1,100 yuan/nickel unit, but market activity recovered to some extent, and procurement volume gradually increased. Overall, the market price center was still moving upward slowly.

Nickel Ore "Tight Supply-Demand Balance Drives Premiums; Government Clarifies RKAB Mechanism " Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.104/dmt, a month-on-month decrease of 3.21%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $34, $38, and $38.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.2–$72.2/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a fundamental perspective, as of March 6, Sulawesi and Halmahera are in a volatile transition at the tail end of the rainy season, where intermittent heavy rainfall continues to obstruct mining logistics. Morowali is currently overcast with high humidity (94%), and while immediate rain is light, a heavy precipitation system is expected around March 13 with up to 48mm of rain; Konawe remains cloudy with daily thundershowers. Halmahera also faces a high-precipitation weekend with a 65% chance of thunderstorms on March 7-8. Despite BMKG's forecast of an early dry season in April, saturated soil and local wind gusts currently prevent these regions from reaching full mining and loading capacity. Under the dual pressure of scarce tradable supply and RKAB uncertainty, some NPI smelters have been forced to ramp up procurement to secure raw materials. Hydrometallurgical Ore While spot supply of limonite is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project has forced related production lines to operate at low utilization, causing temporary demand weakness. However, due to concerns over RKAB approvals, stockpiling for new projects, and growing demand from outer islands, limonite prices are expected to shadow saprolite prices and remain high. On the policy side, Director General Tri Winarno of the ESDM clarified on March 3, 2026, that any RKAB increases will be based on individual company assessments of capacity and compliance rather than a universal percentage hike, with the approval process slated for the second half of 2026. The government emphasized that this is a routine regulatory procedure to optimize resources, not a reactive measure against the previously set annual production cap of 260–270 million tons. Nickel Pig Iron " Strong Cost Support Drives High-Grade NPI Prices Upward " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 21.1 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1092.6 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index increased by USD 2.22 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.54 per nickel unit. This rally is primarily fueled by a "scarcity of high-nickel-content units" and firm offers from smelters facing intense cost pressure from rising ore prices. While downstream stainless steel mills remain reluctant to accept these peak prices due to limited gains in finished products, the overall market remains supported by tight tradable supply and the post-holiday resumption of production. The surge in nickel ore costs has significantly squeezed smelter margins, with many producers now facing contracting profits as NPI price growth lags behind feedstock inflation. Looking ahead, it is expected that NPI prices to maintain their upward momentum as raw material costs remain "easy to rise but hard to fall" and seasonal demand begins to recover.