China’s NPI prices have remained firm despite falling production costs because freely available inventories have tightened. FeNi, meanwhile, has followed lower benchmark nickel prices and faced competition from cheaper refined nickel, compressing its premium over NPI. The divergence could reverse as Chinese output rises and Indonesian producers switch capacity back to NPI.

From July 1, a 50% out-of-quota tariff grabs the headlines — but for stainless steel, the real rule change is "melt-and-pour" origin, and it rewrites who counts as the producer.

Macro tailwinds drive a 320 yuan recovery in SS2605, while high supply and weak spot demand limit the upside