War damage to Iran’s key steel mills threatens ~14 Mt of capacity, sharply reducing crude steel output and exportable supply. While domestic demand remains relatively stable, energy shortages and logistics disruptions amplify losses, tightening regional supply, supporting semi-finished steel prices, and reshaping trade flows.

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated downward, with raw materials declining significantly more than finished steel. Cost-side logic weakened further during the week. Mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran indicated they had entered the final stage of finalising negotiation details, causing overseas market crude oil to plunge and dragging down the coal sector. In the latter half of the week, rumors emerged that negotiations between China Mineral Resources and BHP would be announced next week, with iron ore leading the downward trend. On the finished steel side, inventories of the five major steel products continued to destock, maintaining a structure of both rising supply and demand. Spot market side, futures were weak, end-user purchasing enthusiasm was lukewarm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and some market arbitrageurs between spot and futures began to take profits...

According to reports, on April 8, Shiyan Taixiang Industrial Co., Ltd. announced its approval to terminate the original IPO-funded project "Hongma Technology R&D Center Construction Project" and redirect the unused raised funds to a new project, "Automotive Parts Intelligent Manufacturing Technological Transformation Project," to further optimize the efficiency of raised fund utilization and better align with the company's actual business development needs.

According to SMM data, total aluminum production outside China in March 2026 edged up 0.2% YoY, while daily average production outside China fell 2.7% MoM, mainly due to extensive production cuts and suspensions at aluminum plants in Mozambique and the Middle East during March. Looking ahead to April, although aluminum plants in the US and Iceland are expected to resume production, the resumption of production at a Spanish aluminum plant continues to advance, and operating capacity at new projects in Indonesia and Angola continues to ramp up, given the large-scale production cuts and suspensions at aluminum plants in the Middle East and Mozambique in March and the further emergence of their impact, aluminum production outside China is expecte

SMM News, March 31 According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of domestic aluminum industry in March 2026 rose 0.5% MoM and fell 5.7% YoY, mainly due to a slight rebound in alumina raw material costs during the period. In March, Middle East production cuts pushed up aluminum prices in and outside China. The SMM A00 monthly average spot price (February 26-March 25) rose 2.9% MoM, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 8,316 yuan/mt. Based on monthly average price calculations, 100% of China’s operating aluminum capacity was profitable in March. From the cost breakdown side: Alumina raw materials : According to SMM data, the monthly average of the SMM alumina index in March was 2,685 yuan/mt (January 26-February 25), up 2.4% MoM. During the month, total operating alumina capacity was basically stable, but the Middle East geopolitical conflict raised ocean freight rates for alumina and bauxite, and domestic alumina costs are expected to move higher. Futures prices drove spot prices higher, lifting the monthly average alumina price. Entering April, the upward momentum in spot alumina prices at month-end March appeared slightly insufficient. Some new projects are expected to come online in April or ramp up operating capacity, but as the base price at the beginning of the month was already at a high level, alumina raw material costs in April are expected to post a slight increase. Auxiliary materials market : In March, both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back, lowering aluminum auxiliary material costs. Entering April, the Middle East geopolitical conflict raised international oil prices, and higher costs continued to push up petroleum coke prices, which in turn supported higher prebaked anode prices. The April prebaked anode tender price at a large aluminum plant in Shandong rose 300 yuan/mt MoM; for aluminum fluoride, prices are also expected to rise significantly in April due to higher raw material costs. Overall, auxiliary material costs are expected to increase significantly in April. Electricity prices : Electricity prices were generally stable in March. Entering April, power prices are expected to remain broadly stable, and aluminum power costs are expected to hold steady. Overall, in March 2026, SMM expected the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of dometstic aluminum industry to rise slightly; in April, it was expected to increase significantly MoM, with the average at around 16,150-16,550 yuan/mt.

SMM, March 31 – In March 2026, China's metallurgical-grade alumina output rose 10.56% month-on-month but fell 3.33% year-on-year. From a capacity perspective, as of the end of March, the national installed capacity stood at approximately 113.22 million tonnes, with some growth driven by the gradual commissioning of new alumina projects in Guangxi. However, operating capacity declined 2.1% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year. Although new projects were brought online, they were still in trial production at the end of March and did not contribute effective output, leading to a decline in the overall operating rate. Looking at output structure, total production in March increased from February, but average daily output declined. The main reasons are: on one hand, several enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi carried out various levels of maintenance; among them, one Guizhou-based company shut down part of its production lines due to operational pressure, significantly lowering the operating rate in southern China. On the other hand, northern regions such as Henan and Shandong saw relatively stable operations, mainly fulfilling long-term contract deliveries. In Shanxi, some enterprises continued upgrading their production lines, causing a slight decline in the operating rate. These factors combined led to a month-on-month drop in average daily output in March. Looking ahead to April, the oversupply pattern in the alumina market is expected to persist. First, newly added capacity in Guangxi and Chongqing will be gradually released, driving overall output higher and intensifying competition within the industry. Second, attention should be paid to the indirect impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East: some overseas alumina originally destined for the Middle East has been forced to be re-exported to China, resulting in an unexpected increase in China's imported alumina volume. This will likely impact the domestic market and may restrain the release of domestic production capacity. Based on a comprehensive assessment, China's operating alumina capacity in April 2026 is expected to be around 86.63 million tonnes.