SMM February 28 News: In February 2026, China's metallurgical-grade alumina output decreased by 10.6% month-on-month and also fell by 4.83% year-on-year. By the end of February, the national installed capacity stood at approximately 110.32 million mt, while operating capacity decreased by 1.06% month-on-month and 4.83% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend for the industry. The main reasons for the output decline this month were, on one hand, the concentrated implementation of maintenance and production cuts by enterprises, and on the other hand, the fewer natural days in February, which further impacted production schedules. Around the middle of the month, a company in the northern region implemented large-scale production cuts, coupled with equipment maintenance and production line upgrades by some enterprises. Simultaneously, some southern companies reduced operating loads, leading to a slight contraction in overall monthly output. Looking ahead to March, the overall oversupply situation in the alumina market is unlikely to change in the short term. Although the earlier maintenance and production cuts have led to a decrease in enterprise inventories and slightly eased overall shipment pressure, operational pressure within the industry persists. In March, some enterprises may continue to carry out maintenance and production line upgrades, and the industry will enter a phase of gradual destocking. However, the gradual release of new production capacity in the Guangxi region will offset some of the reductions, and overall operating capacity is expected to show a slow downward trend. Overall, it is projected that operating capacity in March will be approximately 85.11 million mt, and the market will still face oversupply pressure.

9th Feburary 2026: According to SMM statistics, in January 2026, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production decreased by 3.17% month-on-month and increased by 3.42% year-on-year; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises edged down 0.04 percentage points month-on-month to 79.37%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10 percentage points. Alumina production saw both increases and decreases during the month. By region: Indonesia: According to SMM research, PT Kalimantan Alumina Nusantara (KAN), approximately 80%-owned by Press Metal Group, is constructing an alumina refinery with an annual capacity of 1–1.2 million tonnes in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. The project is expected to gradually commence production in late 2026 or early 2027. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s bauxite quota has not been updated for the time being and is only sufficient to support the country’s existing 7 million tonnes of alumina operating capacity. Taking into account the newly added alumina production capacity totalling 2 million tonnes, bauxite demand stands at approximately 24 million tonnes, exceeding the bauxite quota of 18 million tonnes. The tight supply of bauxite at the raw material end will affect the ramp-up of new production capacity. SMM will continue to monitor bauxite supply and alumina production. Middle East: Chuangyuan Metal’s “Alumina—Aluminium Smelting—Power Plant—Aluminium Deep Processing” integrated green and low-carbon aluminium industrial park project in Saudi Arabia is scheduled to begin construction by the end of 2026. Phase I of the project plans to build 500,000 tonnes of aluminium smelting capacity. The project is expected to have a construction period of 24 months and commence production before the end of 2028. Saudi Arabia currently has only one alumina refinery in operation, with an annual capacity of 2 million tonnes. Apart from meeting the production needs of its associated aluminium smelter, the surplus is mainly exported to neighbouring countries. With the commissioning of Chuangyuan’s aluminium smelting project, the trade flow of alumina in the Saudi region is set to change. Africa: During the month, Ghana completed the review of the proposal for its first large-scale alumina refinery project. The project aims to change the country’s long history of exporting bauxite raw materials and importing high-cost finished products. By constructing a refinery, it will directly supply alumina to the Volta Aluminium Company (VALCO), laying the foundation for the downstream aluminium manufacturing industry and driving the development of related industrial clusters. The project is expected to commence in 2026, with a target to restore VALCO’s annual capacity to over 200,000 tonnes by the end of 2028. United States: On January 15, the United States invested $450 million to rescue its last and only domestic alumina refinery and build a complete gallium supply chain. This strategic initiative aims to secure the supply of critical raw materials needed for the defence, aerospace, and high-tech sectors. The refinery will process imported Jamaican bauxite into alumina, targeting an annual output of over 1 million tonnes of alumina, which would meet nearly 40% of U.S. demand. At the same time, the investment will be used to construct a new gallium extraction production line, with a planned capacity of up to 50 tonnes of gallium per year. Outlook for February 2026: Overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to decrease by 10.95% month-on-month and increase by 1.34% year-on-year; the operating rate is expected to be approximately 78.11%, down 0.01 percentage points month-on-month and down 2.84 percentage points year-on-year. The main reasons are the fewer days in February and the fact that some new production capacity is still in the ramp-up stage, leading to a decline in the operating rate.

On April 18, the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Expo, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., and sponsored by Shangli County Keyuan Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd., Press Metal International Ltd., Delta Metal (Holdings) Limited, Jinqiao Light Alloy Technology (Jiangmen) Co., Ltd., and other entities as forum title sponsors, Sunstone Development Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jialang Industrial Co., Ltd. as forum co-organizers, and supported by various specially invited supporters, conference supporters, conference acknowledgment units, and media partners, successfully concluded at the Suzhou International Expo Center in Jiangsu!

[SMM Weekly Review: Prices of Key PV Segments Fell in April, Main Material Producers to Implement Production Cuts in May] This week, the mainstream transaction prices for N-type recharging polysilicon in the market were 37-44 yuan/kg, while those for N-type dense polysilicon were 36-40 yuan/kg. The price index for N-type polysilicon. This week, polysilicon prices continued to decline, with the overall sentiment in the polysilicon market remaining weak. The center of transaction prices continued to move downward, with the transaction prices between some top-tier polysilicon enterprises and traders falling by approximately 4 yuan/kg compared to the quotes in early March. In May, some polysilicon enterprises may introduce new production capacity, but several enterprises are also expected to implement production cuts. Overall, polysilicon production schedules are anticipated to decline on a MoM basis in May.

①During the downturn in the PV industry, second- and third-tier PV film enterprises encountered profitability challenges, with multiple enterprises experiencing negative gross profit margins in this business segment. ②Some industry insiders stated that their operational focus has shifted towards cash flow management, adopting the principle of "no unnecessary transactions" and selectively conducting business while ensuring the safety of funds.

【As the flat and rainy seasons approach, the operating rate of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan remains relatively low YoY due to the sluggish silicon price】 The weekly production of Yunnan's sample silicon enterprises is 1,890 mt, with a weekly operating rate of 22%. The operating rate of Yunnan's sample silicon enterprises remains unchanged WoW. The deviation in sample selection results in the operating rate of Yunnan's sample silicon enterprises being significantly higher than the overall operating rate in Yunnan. The first electric arc furnace of the 100,000 mt silicon metal project in Baoshan was put into operation during the week and is currently in the trial production stage. With the commissioning of new capacity, some old capacity is expected to be subject to production cut plans in May, and the overall supply is expected to fluctuate relatively small.