Silver has seen one of the sharpest pullbacks in recent years within just a few weeks. From the high of US$97.30 on March 2, the price fell to US$61.21 by March 23, losing around 37%. For the market, this was an abrupt break from the previous momentum.

Recently, silver prices have embarked on an upward trend, attracting market attention.

[SMM Commentary on SHFE Tin Futures: SHFE Tin Prices Break Out of Range-bound Trading, Spot Market Sees Brisk Trading]​​Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) fell sharply, closing at 257,000 yuan/mt, with a single-day decline of 3.15%, hitting a new low in nearly two weeks. The price fluctuated sharply during the day, reaching a high of 265,500 yuan/mt and a low of 256,800 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 96,332 lots, while open interest increased by 6,604 lots to 28,221 lots, with a net inflow of funds amounting to 367 million yuan. From the perspective of open interest structure, net long positions increased by 1,743 lots to 1,882 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating that bulls' willingness to enter the market was stronger than that of bears...

SMM May 26 News: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally rose, with SHFE tin down 0.31%, SHFE zinc down 0.58%, SHFE aluminum up 0.15%, and SHFE nickel slightly up. SHFE lead rose 0.36%, and SHFE copper rose 0.53%. In addition, alumina fell 4.18%, lithium carbonate fell 2.05%, silicon metal fell 2.53%, and polysilicon rose 0.52%. Most ferrous metals series fell, with iron ore down 2.28% and HRC down 1.94%. Stainless steel rose slightly, while rebar fell 1.57%. In the coking coal and coke sector: coking coal fell 1.47%, and coke fell 1.61%. In the overseas metal market, the LME metal market was closed for the day due to the Spring Bank Holiday. In the precious metals sector, as of 11:47 a.m., COMEX gold fell 0.6%, and COMEX silver rose slightly. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.55%, and SHFE silver rose 0.38%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping index fell 4.26%, closing at 2,119.3 points. As of 11:47 a.m. on May 26, the midday futures market movements for some contracts were as follows: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 26 Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, the spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a premium of 180-260 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 220 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 120-140 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 130 yuan/mt, also unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,585 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 78,495 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot Market: After the weekend, Guangdong's inventory only rose slightly. The market expects inventory to continue to decline in the future, so suppliers did not respond to the rise in copper prices... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [Eight Departments: Cultivate Around 100 National Leading Enterprises in Digital and Intelligent Supply Chains by 2030] Eight departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the State Taxation Administration, and the National Data Administration, recently jointly issued the "Special Action Plan for Accelerating the Development of Digital and Intelligent Supply Chains." The "Action Plan" makes forward-looking, comprehensive, and systematic arrangements for the development of digital and intelligent supply chains. It proposes the use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and blockchain to promote the digital, intelligent, and visual transformation of supply chains on a "chain-by-chain" basis. By 2030, a replicable and promotable model for the construction and development of digital and intelligent supply chains will be formed. A deeply embedded, smart, efficient, and independently controllable digital and intelligent supply chain system will be basically established in important industries and key areas. Around 100 national leading enterprises in digital and intelligent supply chains will be cultivated, further enhancing the resilience and security level of China's industrial and supply chains. [The central bank's net injection via open market operations was 247 billion yuan] The central bank conducted 382 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 135 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 247 billion yuan was achieved. ► On May 26, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1833 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: The US dollar index fell to a nearly one-month low. As of 11:47, the US dollar index was down 0.31%, at 98.79. According to CCTV News, on the 25th (local time), US President Trump stated that the EU had requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, and he had agreed to this request. Trump described the talks with the EU on tariffs as "very pleasant." He said that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had stated during the call that day, "We will engage quickly to see if an agreement can be reached." In response, Trump said, "I agreed to her request for an extension." On the 23rd, Trump posted on social media that he proposed imposing a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting from June 1. He stated that the main purpose of the EU's establishment was to "take advantage of the US in trade," and that negotiations between the US and the EU had "made no progress." Therefore, he proposed imposing a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting from June 1, 2025. If the goods are manufactured or produced in the US, no tariff will be imposed. Macro: Today, the revised reading for the change in Japan's leading indicators for March and Spain's year-on-year PPI for April will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a commencement address at Princeton University's graduation ceremony, and ECB President Lagarde will speak at the Hertie School in Berlin. On May 26 (Monday), due to Memorial Day holiday in the US and the Spring Bank Holiday in the UK, trading hours in financial markets will be adjusted. The holiday schedule for overseas exchanges is as follows (all times are Beijing time): 》Public holidays in the US and UK today, holiday schedule for overseas exchanges Crude oil: As of 11:47, crude oil futures dropped slightly, with US crude up 0.31% and Brent crude up 0.26%. Earlier, US President Trump extended the deadline for trade negotiations with the EU, alleviating market concerns that US tariffs on the EU could harm the global economy and fuel demand. OPEC is expected to decide at its meeting next week to increase production by another 411,000 barrels per day in July, a forecast that has limited the rise in oil prices. In its closely watched report released last Friday, US energy services company Baker Hughes stated that the number of oil and natural gas rigs operated by US energy firms fell for the fourth consecutive week this week, reaching the lowest level since November 2021. Data showed that, for the week ending May 23, the total number of US oil and natural gas rigs, a leading indicator of future production, decreased by 10 to 566, marking the largest weekly decline since September 2023. It was also the first time since September 2024 that the number of active US oil and natural gas rigs had declined for four consecutive weeks. Data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last Friday showed that, for the week ending May 20, fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options by 12,816 contracts to 81,336 contracts. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► Inventory changes were relatively small over the weekend, and spot premiums remained flat compared to last Friday. [SMM South China Spot Copper] ► Copper prices rose, but demand remained weak, with low market trading activity. [SMM North China Spot Copper] ► Shanghai Zinc: Spot transactions were poor, and premiums remained stable. [SMM Midday Review] ► Ningbo Zinc: Premiums remained high, with attention on subsequent zinc ingot arrivals. [SMM Midday Review] Midday reviews of other metal spot markets will be updated later. Please refresh to view.

On May 16, the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. and Quanda New Materials (Ningbo) Co., Ltd., and supported by sponsors including Fujian Zijin Precious Metals Materials Co., Ltd., Huizhou Yian Precious Metals Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Jiangshan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou Jinquan Mining and Metallurgical Equipment Co., Ltd., Hunan Shengyin New Materials Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Weida Precious Metals Powder Materials Co., Ltd., Guangxi Zhongma Zhonglianjin Cross-border E-commerce Co., Ltd., Suzhou Xinghan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Yongxing Zhongsheng Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., IKOI S.p.A, Hunan Zhengming Environmental Protection Co., Ltd., Kunshan Hongfutai Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., and Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd., featured a presentation by Liang Yonghui, Deputy General Manager of Shandong Zhaojin Gold and Silver Refining Co., Ltd., on the topic "Analysis of Gold and Silver Price Trends: A Trader's Perspective." Logic of Gold and Silver Price Analysis The logical hierarchy of gold price drivers differs from that of commodities due to gold's financial attributes. Silver prices are increasingly influenced by copper prices. Long-term: The macro trend of gold prices opposes paper currency credit. Medium-term: Guided by expectations of real interest rates, with capital flows dominated by technical factors, speculation, and risk aversion. Short-term: Market sentiment Gold price = Real interest rate + Risk aversion + Market sentiment, etc. Logic from 1997 to present: From 1997-2015, real interest rates and inflation; from 2016-2018, technical factors; from 2019 to present, real interest rates, risk aversion, and market sentiment. Gold and Silver Price Analysis Framework (Mind Map) Macro fundamentals: From the perspective of military cycles, the current period is a high-incidence era of revolutions over the past century, indicating a more severe situation than in the 1930s and 1970s. From the Kondratieff wave (long-wave cycle) perspective, the current situation in the US resembles that of the 1970s, both experiencing high inflation during the Kondratieff depression phase. Sunspots: A century-long solar storm tide provides long-term support for gold and silver prices. The rise in global average temperatures will significantly increase the number of hungry people, raising uncertainty risks. Abnormal weather patterns, economic turmoil, and population growth will provide long-term bullish factors for gold and silver (carbon neutrality). From the perspective of the US dollar index, it has fallen below 100 but is expected to remain volatile, with a bullish impact on gold and silver prices. The purchasing power of major currencies and commodities has significantly declined relative to gold. Historically, major currencies were pegged to gold. Following the final collapse of the US Bretton Woods system in 1971, gold was delinked from the US dollar. Since then, with a few exceptions, gold has significantly outperformed all major currencies and commodities as a medium of exchange. A key factor behind this robust performance is the slow growth in gold supply, with gold mine production increasing gradually over time—by approximately 1.7% annually over the past two decades. In contrast, fiat currencies can be printed in unlimited quantities to support monetary policies, such as the quantitative easing (QE) policies implemented after the 2008 global financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These crises have prompted investors to turn to gold as a hedge against currency depreciation risks and to protect the purchasing power of their assets. Currently, the US Fed's interest rate cut cycle has entered a pause phase. A series of uncertainties are affecting the outlook for US Fed interest rate cuts. The minutes of the US Fed's monetary policy meetings indicate that policies such as the Trump administration's tariffs have led to increased economic uncertainty and upside risks to inflation. Therefore, the US Fed will continue to pause interest rate cuts and wait for clearer inflation and economic outlooks before taking further action. According to statistics, the term "tariffs" was mentioned 107 times in the US Fed's Beige Book report, while terms related to "uncertainty" appeared 89 times, reflecting the US Fed's concerns about the uncertain consequences arising from tariff policies. Currently, market expectations are for an interest rate cut as early as June, with up to four cuts possible throughout the year. According to the US Fed's interest rate forecast dot plot, a report based on individual members' predictions of future target interest rates released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Looking ahead to the US Fed's future interest rate cut path, the prerequisites for future US Fed interest rate cuts are sustained declines in inflation or significant weakness in the labour market. Trump has repeatedly pressured Powell to cut interest rates, but Fed Chairman Powell has clearly stated that the current stance is to remain on the sidelines. Currently, influenced by the continued weakening of the labour market, market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts this year have risen to 100 basis points, with a total of four cuts expected. The ongoing global de-dollarization is causing cracks in the US dollar system, reshaping the world order. With no alternative to gold emerging yet, this supports gold prices. The macroeconomic cycle influences medium and long-term fluctuations in gold prices. US economic recession cycles often correspond with rising gold prices and falling silver prices. The risk of economic recession has significantly increased, which is bullish for gold and bearish for silver. From the perspective of real interest rates, the current static gold price is $1,850. ►Silver Supply and Demand The latest report released by the Silver Institute predicts that the global silver deficit will narrow to 117.6 million ounces in 2025, a decrease of 21%. This change stems from the combined effects of a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply. Silver, as a crucial material for jewelry, electronics, EVs, and solar panels, and with investment value, has experienced a structural market shortage for five consecutive years. It is expected to remain stable in 2025, while demand for jewelry and silverware is anticipated to decline. The report specifically mentions that adjustments to the US tariff policy pose a major risk factor for silver demand this year, and changes in this policy may profoundly impact the supply-demand balance in the global silver market. Both the total global silver supply and silver mine production have slowed down. Total demand has weakened somewhat, while industrial silver demand continues to grow, and PV demand growth is limited. It also elaborates on the narrowing of the silver supply-demand gap; the low level of domestic and overseas silver inventories; the historically high levels of silver CFTC open interest, bulls, and net long positions; the rise in silver investment demand; and the increase in silver ETF holdings. ►Gold-silver price ratio: The ratio of silver to gold is an important indicator for measuring their relative value. Due to the impact of safe-haven and investment demand, gold surged significantly in April, while silver, lacking safe-haven attributes, saw limited gains, leading to a rapid widening of the gold-silver ratio to 107. After the release of the overheated sentiment in the gold market, gold bulls reduced their positions in stages and exited the market. Meanwhile, silver remained unusually resilient, and the gold-silver ratio once fell below 100. The long-term upward logic for gold remains unchanged, while silver currently lacks the conditions for a long-term rally. Despite the already high gold-silver ratio, as the correction in gold concludes, bullish capital is expected to return to the market, and the gold-silver ratio may continue to rise in the future. From the perspective of the Kondratieff depression phase, considering excess premium or a macro bull market, gold has risen, and the excess premium has been realized. Will there be a macro bull market? Bearish in the medium term. From the perspective of the gold-to-metal and gold-to-agricultural product ratios during the depression, gold is at a high level with excess premium, which is bearish. From the perspective of central banks' gold buying and selling, central banks' purchases have been on an upward trend in recent years, which is bearish in peaceful times and bullish during war cycles. From the perspective of capital flow—open interest, a unilateral trend can be maintained. Exchange rates will reduce volatility: From the perspective of the silver bull-bear cycle, with eight operational phases, it is bearish. However, silver's application in PV at 3,000 mt per year is bullish in the long term (due to major industrial technological breakthroughs). ►Key factors Some thoughts: 1. Gold's correction is similar to that in December 2009. Most non-ferrous metals have seen their prices halved, while gold has continuously hit new highs, and silver's performance resembles that of copper in the 1980s. 3. Prices tend to rise during interest rate hike cycles, and there is a high probability of rising during interest rate cut cycles as well. 4. The global macro cycle suggests a chaotic world in the future. Under this macro cycle, gold prices may exceed expectations. Could silver reach $49? 5. Opportunities arise from the scarcity of gold, silver, platinum, tin, gallium, germanium, and major industrial technological breakthroughs. 6. Digital currencies represent the greatest uncertainty in weakening the financial attributes of gold and silver. Gold has the foundation for a major bull market, and silver's long-term target is close to its previous high. ►Forecast: Its long-term attributes resemble those of copper, with a new cycle trend emerging after March 2024. In the near term, prices are expected to range from $27 to $38, with an overall fluctuating upward trend based on weekly adjustments. Gold: Is there a foundation for a long-term bull market at $5,000? Risk warnings: (In the VUCA era) 1. Uncertainty of war and conflicts. 2. Uncertainty of technological revolutions. 3. Uncertainty between the East and the West. 4. Uncertainty of exchange rates. 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference

Since the beginning of this month, a rather unusual phenomenon has emerged in the US interest rate market: nearly every "big day" for economic data releases (including US Fed decision days) has dealt a blow to expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts... On Tuesday, Biancore Search strategist Jim Bianco stated on social media that the next FOMC meeting with a probability of over 50% for an interest rate cut is now not expected until the September policy meeting—with the latest probability for a cut at the September meeting exceeding 60%. However, less than two weeks ago, this probability was actually over 100%, implying that the market was betting on an earlier rate cut. Bianco thus lamented that if this trend continues, the window for the next rate cut could soon be pushed back to December. It is worth noting that a chart attached to Bianco's post indeed shows that since the beginning of this month, from the ISM Manufacturing PMI, non-farm payrolls, ISM Services PMI, and US Fed decisions, to the latest US April CPI data released last night, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have weakened on nearly every "big day"... This is not to say that every set of data has been unfavorable for the rate cut outlook. For instance, the US April CPI data released yesterday, which came in below expectations, should theoretically have favored an earlier US Fed rate cut. However, rather unusually, even as Trump used the data to "press" Fed Chairman Powell, expectations for a rate cut still continued to weaken: Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the US CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY in April, both below market expectations of 0.3% and 2.4%, respectively. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, in line with expectations. The 2.3% YoY increase in CPI and the 2.8% YoY increase in core CPI are both the lowest since early 2021. After the CPI data release, Trump once again pressured Fed Chairman Powell to take action to cut interest rates. Trump wrote on the social platform Truth Social, "There is no more inflation! Prices for gasoline, energy, groceries, and almost everything else are all falling!!!" The Fed must lower interest rates, just as Europe and China have already done. What's going on with 'Mr. Delay' Powell? Isn't this unfair to a US that is about to take off? Let the rate cut happen—it would be wonderful!" However, data from the interest rate futures market on Tuesday still showed that expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts continued to weaken—moving further towards only two rate cuts this year. Will the pullback in CPI still fail to guarantee an interest rate cut? Well, if it was understandable that several sets of hot US data released earlier this month did not support the US Fed's interest rate cut, why did yesterday's CPI data still fail to ignite market expectations for an interest rate cut? In response, a data commentary by Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed Wire," may reflect the current market sentiment: that is, from the perspective of the future evolution trend of CPI, the US Fed still has little reason to change its wait-and-see stance. Timiraos believes that these data are basically in line with the expectations of forecasters who closely track how the Labor Department measures inflation. If there is any good news, it is that the CPI data did not reach the upper limit of expectations—or worse. Nevertheless, for the US Fed, the April inflation data is like a (final) piece of good weather news before a highly anticipated storm—the intensity of which remains uncertain. This CPI report may only make officials feel more at ease with their decision to cut interest rates by 100 basis points last year. He believes that if it were not for the widespread tariff increases in April, this inflation data might have given the US Fed hope of resuming interest rate cuts soon. However, potential cost increases in the coming months are likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines until it can better determine whether the price increases are merely a one-off phenomenon. Interest Rate Expectations "Change Daily" Currently, an increasing number of market traders are abandoning their bets on a US Fed interest rate cut. Open interest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Tuesday confirmed that several previously large bets on an interest rate cut have been closed out—one of which had a target price of up to four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, and this closure may have resulted in losses of up to $10 million. Swap contracts linked to the US Fed's policy meetings currently reflect an interest rate cut of just over 50 basis points this year, compared to expectations of more than 100 basis points last month. "The current news flow on tariffs, trade agreements, geopolitical tensions, and domestic fiscal policy is changing so rapidly that it is enough to make people adjust their expectations for the target meeting time of a US Fed interest rate cut (or hike) every day," Jefferies strategist Thomas Simons wrote in a research report. As traders exit their bets on a dovish stance by the US Fed, major Wall Street banks are also rapidly reshaping their expectations for the Fed's policy. Goldman Sachs and Barclays now both expect the first interest rate cut of the year to occur in December rather than the previously expected July, while Citi has adjusted its expected timing of the interest rate cut from June to July, and JPMorgan Chase has also postponed its interest rate cut expectations from September to December. "The potential impact of tariffs, along with persistent inflationary pressures in interest rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and automobiles, suggests limited room for interest rate cuts. Therefore, patience remains the US Fed's best course of action," Simons said. Judging from the options activity at the far end of the Treasury curve, the demand for protection against rising yields has been increasing. In Tuesday's trading, multiple bets were placed on the 10-year yield rising to nearly 5% in the coming weeks, about 50 basis points above the current level. In the spot market, bearish sentiment toward bonds is also heating up. JPMorgan's US Treasury client survey released on Tuesday showed that outright short positions rose to their highest level in seven weeks, while net long positions shrank to their lowest level since February 10.