Macro tailwinds drive a 320 yuan recovery in SS2605, while high supply and weak spot demand limit the upside

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated downward, with raw materials declining significantly more than finished steel. Cost-side logic weakened further during the week. Mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran indicated they had entered the final stage of finalising negotiation details, causing overseas market crude oil to plunge and dragging down the coal sector. In the latter half of the week, rumors emerged that negotiations between China Mineral Resources and BHP would be announced next week, with iron ore leading the downward trend. On the finished steel side, inventories of the five major steel products continued to destock, maintaining a structure of both rising supply and demand. Spot market side, futures were weak, end-user purchasing enthusiasm was lukewarm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and some market arbitrageurs between spot and futures began to take profits...

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 6 – April 10), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 502.9 yuan/gram and closed at 521.45 yuan/gram, up 19.2 yuan/gram or 3.82% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 529.5 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 496.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 377.85 yuan/gram and closed at 385.05 yuan/gram, up 7.65 yuan/gram or 2.03% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 399.85 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 366.2 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,133 lots with a total turnover of 9.348 billion yuan and open interest of 15,303 lots, a WoW decrease of 1,287 lots. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 11,379 lots with a total turnover of 4.348 billion yuan and open interest of 7,216 lots, a WoW increase of 88 lots. US-Iran conflict, Israel launched its most intense airstrikes on Lebanon to date. On April 9, the Speaker of Iran's Parliament issued a statement saying that three key provisions in the proposal (comprehensive ceasefire, airspace security, and uranium enrichment rights) had been violated before negotiations even began, and under such circumstances, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations would be unreasonable. Iranian media issued a statement claiming the Strait of Hormuz had been fully closed. US Fed monetary policy, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson noted that employment faced downside risks while inflation faced upside risks. Nick Timiraos wrote that the ceasefire agreement made the US Fed's decision-making more difficult, as energy fluctuations persisted, leading to a prolonged period of rates being held steady. Tariff side, tariff policy has been one of the core political assets during Trump's administration. If high tariffs cannot be maintained through legal channels, his political influence and foreign negotiation leverage will be significantly weakened. After the "reciprocal tariffs" were overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration implemented temporary tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act in the short term to fill the policy vacuum, and in the medium and long-term may rely on Sections 232 and 301 to sustain a high-tariff policy framework, while threatening on social media to impose 50% tariffs on countries providing military weapons to Iran. Against this backdrop, the final determination in the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Russian unwrought palladium is highly likely to maintain the affirmative conclusions of the preliminary ruling. Additionally, the tariff illegality ruling triggered massive tax refund pressures, exacerbating the US fiscal burden, and after geopolitical premiums are digested, will reinforce the "weak US dollar" logic. Palladium new demand, attention should be paid to China's fiberglass industry's transition from platinum to palladium. Starting April 2026, full-year testing will be conducted, and if successful, annual demand could reach 800,000 ounces, potentially offsetting declining demand from the automotive industry. Watch for palladium test results in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the US International Trade Commission's final-stage injury hearing on the palladium anti-dumping and countervailing duty case on April 27. Watch for the transition following LBMA's appointment of IBA as the platinum and palladium price auction administrator.

Average prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled products remained largely stable this week, with overall transactions showing no significant change WoW, though low-price transactions and basis trading in some regions were moderate. In terms of supply, rolling line maintenance decreased this week, and overall HRC production increased. Demand side, apparent demand increased WoW this week. Inventory side, SMM-tracked HRC social inventory stood at 5.4382 million mt this week, down 65,600 mt WoW, or -1.19% WoW. Nationwide social inventory continued destocking this week. By region, south China, north China, and northeast China markets saw good destocking, while east China and central China were still experiencing inventory buildup. Cost side, iron ore negotiations have ...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Strengthened, Stainless Steel Spot Market Ran Steadily SMM, April 10: SS futures strengthened and rose. SS futures extended the mid-week rally and further explored upward. As of the morning close, the most-traded contract was reported at 14,495 yuan/mt. Spot market side, despite SS futures exploring higher, the spot market remained stable. In addition, a major stainless steel producer released its guidance price today, which held steady MoM. Although intraday inquiry activity picked up somewhat and some low-priced resources decreased, actual transactions remained limited, and upward momentum for prices was insufficient. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and rose. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was reported at 14,470 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area ranged from 50-250 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the Wuxi average price rose by 50 yuan/mt while the Foshan average price held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area held steady; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes remained flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market was currently in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April." In the short term, macro tailwinds helped restore confidence, and spot inquiry activity picked up. However, cautious sentiment among downstream end-users persisted, with procurement still driven by rigid demand. Acceptance of high-priced resources remained poor, and transactions relied on low-priced resources, with no significant volume increase overall. Futures side, the US-Iran conflict de-escalated this week, with both sides reaching a two-week ceasefire agreement and initiating negotiations. Macro...

SMM Nickel News, April 10: Macro and market news: (1) Data from the NBS showed that in March, consumer demand pulled back seasonally after the extended Chinese New Year holiday, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) down 0.7% MoM and up 1.0% YoY. (2) Sources said that Iran had informed Pakistan, the mediator in the negotiations, that the Iranian delegation would not participate in peace talks with the US until a ceasefire was achieved in Lebanon. Previously, on April 9, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Sayed Khatibzadeh said the Iranian delegation would head to Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, for negotiations. Spot market: On April 10, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,350 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged in the morning session before pulling back slightly, closing at 133,210 yuan/mt, down 0.72%. In the short term, Indonesia's policy tightening and cost support have built a solid floor for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand capped upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.