\LME aluminium prices have retreated steadily from their late-May peak, falling from nearly $3,680 per metric ton to around $3,480 per metric ton. More notably, the LME aluminium Cash-3M spread narrowed sharply over just one week, dropping from a cash premium of $104.56 per metric ton on June 1 to $15.17 per metric ton on June 9, a loss of nearly $90 per metric ton. This marks the steepest contraction in the backwardation structure since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.

SMM News, June 11: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell: SHFE copper fell 1.4%, SHFE lead rose 0.68%, and SHFE tin fell 1.08%. SHFE nickel fell 1.49%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.33%. SHFE zinc fell 2.48%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.46%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 1.19%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 3.17%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.81%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 4.19%. Ferrous metals mostly fell: iron ore fell 0.46%, rebar fell 0.28%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.3%, and stainless steel fell 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.41%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 1.27%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals were down nearly across the board. LME copper fell 0.19%, LME aluminum fell 0.31%, and LME lead rose 0.48%. LME zinc fell 0.45%, LME tin fell 0.77%, and LME nickel fell 0.23%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 1.16%, hitting an intraday low of $4,046.2/oz; COMEX silver fell 2.04%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 4.58%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 3.89%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.77%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 3.7%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract was flat at 3,977.5 points. As of 11:43 on June 11, midday moves in selected futures: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at 240 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,625 yuan/mt, down 585 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,550 yuan/mt, down 585 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to decline today, marking the eighth consecutive drop... Macro Front China: [China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance: In May, China’s power and energy storage battery sales rose 47.4% YoY] The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released monthly power battery information for May 2026. In May, total production of power and energy storage batteries in China was 191.7 Gwh, up 4.2% MoM and up 55.2% YoY. In May, China's sales of power batteries and ESS batteries totaled 182.2 GWh, up 11.0% MoM and 47.4% YoY. Of these, power battery sales were 127.0 GWh, accounting for 69.7% of the total, up 16.6% MoM and 45.2% YoY; ESS battery sales were 55.2 GWh, representing 30.3% of the total, down 0.1% MoM but up 52.7% YoY. [Changchun: Building a World-Class Vehicle Manufacturer Group, Supporting FAW and Huawei to Deepen Strategic Cooperation] The 15th Five-Year Plan for the Automobile Industry Development in Changchun (Draft for Comment) has been released for public comment. It mentions providing full support for vehicle enterprises to transform and upgrade, with the aim of building a world-class vehicle manufacturer group. It focuses on supporting vehicle enterprises to develop new energy and energy-efficient vehicles and to establish a clear brand system. It also supports carriers to strengthen strategic cooperation with domestic cross-industry enterprises in the field of intelligent connected vehicles. In particular, it fully supports China FAW in integrating global innovation resources and deepening strategic technological cooperation with Leap Motor, Huawei, DJI, and other enterprises in areas such as new energy vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles. The plan emphasizes the industrialization application and iterative upgrade of key technologies such as all-solid-state batteries, the 'Hongqi No.1' multi-domain fusion chip, the Sinan Intelligent Driving large model, and the Lingxi Cockpit large model. It supports China FAW in deepening strategic cooperation with leading technology enterprises such as Huawei, Baidu, and iFLYTEK, as well as internet platforms, to jointly establish innovation laboratories, focusing on tackling key technologies such as end-cloud integrated intelligent architecture, Level 3 and above autonomous driving, and multimodal interaction, thereby creating a nationally influential source of intelligent connected vehicle innovation. (From WSJ APP) The PBOC conducted 188.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. No reverse repos matured today. As for the US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.96. The US Labor Department said on Wednesday that the CPI rose 4.2% YoY in May, accelerating from 3.8% in the previous month. This marked the highest year-on-year increase since April 2023, indicating that high energy costs due to the conflict with Iran continue to drive up price pressures. Since the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran in late February, Americans have been feeling the pain of rising oil prices. Rising energy costs have weakened consumer confidence. Currently, there is little sign that oil tankers can obtain sustained permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz, meaning that supply pressure in the global energy market is expected to persist. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the US Fed holding interest rates steady through June was 98.4%, with a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut seen at just 1.6%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate through July stood at 89.1%, a cumulative 25-bp hike at 9.5%, and a cumulative 25-bp cut at 1.5%. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, described the latest CPI report as a “tale of two cities.” While the data was highly consistent with expectations, the overall trend remained negative. This did not alter the policy path for the Fed’s next meeting. However, the prevailing consensus is that the Fed will hold steady, and Fed funds futures are currently pricing in only one hike. In summary, after significant profit-taking pressure on semiconductor stocks and the broader tech sector, these factors were likely instrumental in helping the market recover some lost ground in early trading today. A CICC research note argued that US inflation remains dominated by structural factors, such as energy shocks, with cyclical inflation not yet evident. However, it warned of the risks of a rebound in aggregate demand driven by AI capex expansion and improving employment. On monetary policy, the firm maintained its baseline call of no cuts and no hikes by the Fed this year. It expects the Fed’s stance to stay hawkish, noting that Fed Chair Warsh’s top priority upon taking office would be to rebuild policy credibility, likely demonstrating resolve by signaling stronger expectations for balance sheet reduction rather than hinting at rate hikes. A scenario of “balance sheet reduction first, delayed rate cuts” could not be ruled out, posing sustained pressure on assets that conflict with Warsh’s philosophy, those reliant on liquidity, and those benefiting from dollar over-issuance. (Jin10 Data App) On the Data Front: Releases due today include the Eurozone’s ECB Deposit Facility Rate and ECB Main Refinancing Rate as of June 11, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6, and the US PPI year-over-year and month-over-month figures for May. Additionally, attention will be on the Ministry of Commerce’s second regular press briefing for June; the ECB’s interest rate decision; and the monetary policy press conference held by ECB President Christine Lagarde. In Crude Oil: As of 11:43, oil prices were up across both benchmarks, with WTI gaining 1.94% and Brent crude rising 1.65%. Prices climbed amid escalating military conflict between the US and Iran. The US Department of Energy (DOE) stated on Wednesday local time that the US is seeking to lend up to 40 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to energy enterprises to help lower fuel prices. This plan is part of a previous agreement to release 172 million barrels from the SPR. To date, the US has lent approximately 133 million barrels of crude oil under that agreement. In March this year, after the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, the US reached an agreement with about 30 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to jointly release approximately 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to help stabilize the global oil market. At that time, the US SPR inventory stood at 349.2 million barrels, the lowest level since August 2023. Enterprises that borrowed crude oil had to return an equal amount and pay a premium of up to 24% in the form of additional crude oil. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 11 news: Metal market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.79%. SHFE aluminum edged up 0.02%, while SHFE lead and SHFE tin fell slightly. SHFE zinc fell 1.98%. SHFE nickel fell 0.72%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.73%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.07%, hot-rolled coil edged up, stainless steel rose 0.17%, and rebar rose 0.19%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 0.44%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 2.34%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 0.81%. LME aluminum fell 1.09%, and LME lead fell 0.93%. LME zinc fell 2.19%. LME tin fell 0.34%. LME nickel fell 1.47%. Overnight, precious metals : Overnight, COMEX gold fell 4.49%, and COMEX silver fell 2.67%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 3.37%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.08%. Citibank expects that if the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continues into this summer, global gold purchasing demand may shrink further, and gold prices may fall to $3,500 per ounce by September. Currently, Citibank has lowered its three-month gold price target from $4,300 per ounce to $4,000 per ounce. CITIC Securities pointed out that the US CPI for May was broadly in line with expectations, with high oil prices continuing to push up the overall inflation rate, while core inflation was mild. CITIC Securities believes the risk of a second round of US inflation is low, and the overall CPI YoY may have peaked for this cycle. It is expected to gradually decline slowly until September, then rebound slightly, before pulling back rapidly in March next year. The US Fed is expected to keep its target rate unchanged this year, and the interest rate hike expectations priced in the derivatives market have room to be revised downwards. The key focus of next week's Fed meeting will be the new Chair, Mr. Walsh's, remarks on the current inflation situation and interest rate levels. For US Treasuries, trading opportunities are more suitable than allocation opportunities now, and short-term bonds are better than long-term bonds. The US dollar index finds support, and gold prices may need to wait for accommodative expectations to restart before breaking out of their predicament. As of 7:19 AM on June 11, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic: [Zheng Zhajie: Fully implement the "AI+" initiative and deeply address "involution-style" competition] On June 10, Zheng Zhajie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired an expert symposium on the economic situation, exchanging views with Cai Fang, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhang Li, President of the CCID Research Institute, and chief economists from some domestic and international securities firms, including BOC International. The discussion focused on analyzing and assessing the current economic situation, continuously expanding domestic demand, promoting high-level sci-tech self-reliance and strength and autonomous control of the industry chain, and stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations. The attending experts' views, opinions, and suggestions were heard. Zheng Zhajie stated that the NDRC would earnestly implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council by making best use of its macro policies and leveraging the integrated effects of existing and incremental policies; strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, new-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks to promote a close integration of investment in objects and investment in people, and effectively implementing the consumer goods trade-in policy; accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and fully implementing the "AI+" initiative; continuously strengthening reform and innovation to deeply advance the construction of a unified national market and deeply address "involution-style" competition; enhancing energy and resource security levels and implementing a comprehensive conservation strategy; effectively ensuring the basic wellbeing of the people and making every effort to promote employment for key groups; at the same time, promptly researching and reserving a batch of targeted and highly operational policy tools, ready to be introduced and implemented as needed, to continuously consolidate the foundation for sustained and stable economic improvement. It is hoped that the experts would provide more suggestions to contribute their wisdom and strength to promoting high-quality development. [Ministry of Commerce and seven other units issue "Several Measures to Promote the Integrated Development of Railways and Tourism and Expand Service Consumption"] It is proposed to strengthen the coordination and alignment of railway and tourism planning. Planning guidance should be enhanced. Compiling railway-related plans should encompass the developmental needs of the tourism industry, site planning and layout must be effectively executed, and the accessibility and convenience of tourism resources should be elevated. The compilation of tourism-related plans should coordinate the layout and development of cultural tourism resources and railway resources, promoting the integrated and mutually reinforcing development of railways and tourism. [NRDC Price Cost and Certification Center Conducts Survey at SPIC] On June 3, Cheng Gang, Deputy Director of the Price Cost and Certification Center of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), led a team to conduct a survey at State Power Investment Corporation Limited (SPIC). The two sides exchanged views on the operation of wind power and PV projects, as well as the development of the hydrogen-based energy industry. (NDRC Price Cost and Certification Center) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.09%, closing at 100.04. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% YoY in May, the highest level since early 2023 and in line with market expectations. This marked the first time in three years that CPI inflation breached the 4% mark. The main factor driving the overall inflation higher was the rise in energy prices triggered by the Iran war. The 0.5% MoM rise matched expectations and was slightly lower than the previous 0.6%. "New Fed wire" Nick Timiraos' analysis pointed out that on a three-month annualized basis, the overall CPI increase in May was as high as 8.2% ; the overall CPI rose 0.47% MoM, with an annualized rate of approximately 5.8%, pushing the 12-month increase to 4.2%, a three-year high. Core CPI rose 2.9% YoY in May , matching expectations and edging up from the previous 2.8%; the MoM increase was 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3% and a significant slowdown from the previous 0.4%. Core inflation was mild, but US real wages have already seen their first YoY negative growth since April 2023, worsening the situation for consumers. Furthermore, multiple Wall Street institutions believe that while this CPI data reinforces the "higher for longer" logic, it is not enough to trigger an interest rate hike. Market bets on the Fed resuming rate hikes have risen, but mainstream institutions still tend to believe the Fed will stay on hold in the coming months. (Wall Street Insights) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 98.4%, with a 1.6% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. The probability for the Fed to keep rates unchanged through July is 89.1%, with a 9.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 1.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stated on Wednesday that BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has been hospitalized and is expected to remain in hospital for about two weeks, therefore he will miss the monetary policy meeting on June 15-16 but is expected to attend the meeting on July 30-31. BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will chair the June 15-16 monetary policy meeting, and Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold a press conference after the June meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today's releases include the Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate up to June 11, the Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate up to June 11, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6, and the US May PPI YoY and MoM rates. Also, focus on: the Ministry of Commerce holds its second routine press conference of June; the ECB announces its interest rate decision; ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US crude up 4.14% and Brent crude up 3.88%. The Iran situation escalated abruptly, causing crude oil prices to surge. Additionally, a sharp decline in Cushing crude oil inventories and significant withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) once fueled an acceleration in the rise of oil prices. Trump subsequently stated on social media that over 100 million barrels of crude oil are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which slightly capped the gains. (Wall Street Insights) The US Department of Energy (DOE) stated on Wednesday local time that the US is seeking to lend up to 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to energy companies to help lower fuel prices. This plan is part of the previous agreement to release 172 million barrels from the SPR. To date, the US has lent approximately 133 million barrels of crude oil under this agreement. In March, after the US and Israel launched the war on Iran on February 28, the US reached an agreement with about 30 member countries of the International Energy Agency to jointly release approximately 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to help stabilize the international oil market. Currently, the US SPR inventory stands at 349.2 million barrels, the lowest level since August 2023. Enterprises borrowing crude oil must return an equivalent amount of crude oil plus pay a premium of up to 24% in extra crude oil. (Jin10 Data APP)

June 10, 2026 The price of gold has triggered a technical warning signal by falling below its 200-day moving average. If upcoming U.S. inflation data reinforces expectations of persistently high interest rates, market observers warn that the precious metal could face an extended correction down to $4,000 per ounce. While short-term momentum is clearly weakened, many observers believe the long-term, structural investment thesis for gold remains intact. Technical sell-off accelerates After the gold price failed to establish itself permanently above the $4,500 mark, the subsequent break of the closely watched 200-day moving average has noticeably intensified selling pressure. Analysts at FOREX.com, for example, view this as having permanently damaged the short-term chart picture. The next critical support level is now a long-term upward trend line in the $4,230 range, followed by the annual lows from March at around $4,100. Should this zone also fall, the market will lack solid technical support levels, making a pullback to the psychologically important $4,000 mark likely. A look at the historical pattern in September 2023 highlights the relevance of this signal: At that time, the price plummeted by another 5 percent after breaking the 200-day moving average. Whether the bears retain control will thus be decided primarily by the key zone between $4,230 and $4,100. U.S. Inflation and a Restrictive Fed as Headwinds The fundamental headwind for the non-interest-bearing precious metal comes primarily from U.S. monetary policy . The upcoming US Consumer Price Index is eagerly awaited, with core inflation forecast to rise by 2.9 percent year-over-year. A hotter data point is likely to reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates at elevated levels for longer, which strengthens the US dollar and weighs on gold via rising opportunity costs (US Treasury yields). Other analysts also expect continued volatility with a moderate downward trend in the short term, given the robust U.S. labor market and persistent inflationary pressures. As long as bond yields remain high and hopes for rate cuts fade, only extreme geopolitical upheavals are likely to be able to reverse this macroeconomic trend. Structural drivers support the long-term outlook Despite the gloomy short-term outlook, experts advise against losing sight of the long-term perspective. They point to the ongoing diversification of global central bank reserves, as central banks worldwide are increasing their gold holdings to specifically reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. Additionally, drastically rising government debt, fiscal risks in major industrialized nations, and geopolitical instability act as reliable, strategic drivers of demand. In this context, it is emphasized that the fundamental investment thesis remains intact. Systemic risks in the global financial system and real inflationary pressures persist. Two different time horizons are thus currently colliding in the gold market: While the technical picture and the interest rate environment point to further turbulence in the short term, gold remains supported in the long term by central bank purchases and systemic currency risks. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-under-pressure-how-hard-will-the-correction-hit

SMM, June 10: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market weakened across the board. SHFE lead fell 0.43%, SHFE tin dropped 1.89%, SHFE nickel lost 2.29%, SHFE copper edged down 0.33%, SHFE aluminum declined 0.85%, and SHFE zinc slipped 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.11%, the most-traded alumina contract gained 3.21%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract added 0.53%, the most-traded silicon metal contract increased 2%, while the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.63%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.59%, rebar added 0.13%, HRC edged lower, and stainless steel fell 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract dropped 3.13%, and the most-traded coke contract declined 1.35%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper edged up 0.06%, LME aluminum fell 1.03%, LME lead dropped 0.38%, LME zinc declined 0.24%, LME tin lost 0.92%, and LME nickel slipped 0.36%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.99%, touching an intraday low of $4,195.5/oz, while COMEX silver dropped 1.82%. In domestic precious metals, the most-traded SHFE gold contract declined 3.79%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract slumped 6.79%. Ilya Spivak, global macro head at Tastylive, noted that the real drivers lie in shifting expectations around US Fed policy, rising yields, and a stronger US dollar. "I think these factors are all weighing on gold," he said. Spivak added that if gold breaks below the $4,100 mark, support levels would fundamentally change, and by the end of the year, we may be looking at the next threshold of $3,500. (Jin10 Data APP) Meanwhile, by the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 5.43%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 2.77%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container freight futures contract climbed 3.2% to 3,993 points. As of 11:39 on June 10, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated in the 24,575-24,745 yuan/mt range, Shuangyan was mainly transacted at 24,675-24,835 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream deals were at 24,505-24,675 yuan/mt. In early trading, the market quoted premiums of 20-30 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no quotes against the futures contract yet... Macro Front China side: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): May CPI Rose 1.2% YoY, PPI Rose 3.9% YoY, with PPI Continuing to Increase] NBS data showed that in May 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% YoY. Specifically, urban CPI rose 1.3% YoY, while rural CPI rose 1.1% YoY; food prices fell 1.7% YoY, while non-food prices rose 1.9% YoY; consumer goods prices rose 1.6% YoY, while services prices rose 0.8% YoY. In the January–May average, national CPI rose 1.0% YoY. In May, national CPI edged down 0.1% MoM. In May 2026, China’s national producer price index (PPI) rose 3.9% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The industrial producer purchasing price index rose 5.8% YoY and 1.3% MoM. In the January–May average, PPI rose 1.0% YoY, while the purchasing price index rose 1.6% YoY. Within the purchasing price index in May, price increases were led by non-ferrous metals and wires (22.0%), chemical raw materials (11.8%), fuels and power (10.0%), textile raw materials (2.5%), and ferrous metals (0.3%); meanwhile, declines were seen in building materials and non-metallic products (-5.5%) and agricultural and sideline products (-1.6%). Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on the CPI and PPI data for May 2026. The PBOC conducted a 159-billion-yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. No reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index slipped 0.01% to 99.94. Renewed conflict between the US and Iran drove up both the dollar and oil prices, exacerbating market concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes. Markets are awaiting key US inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. (Jinshi Data APP) At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI data. This is also the most closely watched heavyweight inflation data ahead of the new Fed Chair Warsh's policy rate meeting next week. According to forecasts, four institutions, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, project the overall CPI YoY for May to be in the 4.17%–4.3% range, all above April’s 3.81% . However, their MoM core CPI forecasts are generally below market consensus. (Wall Street CN) According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 98.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 1.8%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July stands at 85.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 12.6%, and that of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.6%. CSC Financial pointed out that, in the short term, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike remains low, and the market's concerns about Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, built on assumptions of sticky US inflation and a persistently hot labor market. CME FedWatch data shows that markets outside China expect the most likely Fed rate hike to begin at the end of October 2026. The current global liquidity tightening and market adjustment represent a front-running reaction to expectations for a Fed rate hike in Q4. For China’s bond market, the increase in expectations of Fed tightening is not a negative factor. China’s bond market is relatively independent and has a relatively small correlation with US Treasuries. Moreover, given the ample liquidity in China, the expected tightening of liquidity outside China and the adjustment in equity markets may not rule out the possibility of driving capital into the bond market, supporting current levels of long-dated bonds. Going forward, the 10-year Chinese government bond yield is expected to continue to fluctuate around the 1.70% mark; a break below 1.70% would still require the emergence of incremental domestic information. Data Releases: Today, the following data will be released: US May unadjusted CPI YoY, US May seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US May unadjusted core CPI YoY, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision due June 10, and China May M2 money supply YoY (pending). In addition, the following should be watched: the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision announcement; and a monetary policy press conference by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers. Crude Oil: As of 11:39, both oil benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.94% and Brent up 0.98%. Renewed supply concerns stemming from the re-erupting conflict in the Middle East, together with declining US crude oil inventories, have provided support to oil prices. Data: US API crude oil inventories for the week ended June 5: -9.119 million barrels (expected -3.421 million, prior -6.757 million). US API gasoline inventories for the week ended June 5: -1.191 million barrels (expected -614,000, prior 3.454 million). (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday local time that, due to the loss of over 11 million barrels per day of crude oil production in the Middle East caused by the conflict, major consuming countries are drawing down inventories at an unprecedented pace to fill the supply gap, and OECD oil inventories are heading towards their lowest levels since at least 2003. EIA stated that, under its current assumption that shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before early 2027, total OECD oil inventories will fall to just below 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 10 news: Metal markets: The domestic base metals market mostly fell overnight. SHFE copper fell 0.34%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.67%, and SHFE lead fell 0.4%. SHFE zinc rose 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 1.1%. SHFE nickel fell 1.34%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.68%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract closed flat at 22,995 yuan/mt. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.26%, HRC flat at 3,360 yuan/mt, stainless steel down 0.69%, and rebar up 0.19%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 0.58%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 0.38%. On the overseas metals market overnight, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.23%. LME aluminum fell 2.08%, and LME lead fell 0.38%. LME zinc rose 0.33%. LME tin rose 0.16%. LME nickel fell 2.2%. Overnight precious metals market : Overnight COMEX gold fell 1.8%, and COMEX silver fell 4.56%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 1.51%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract fell 4.06%. Bob Haberkorn, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures, stated: "Traders are slightly uneasy about the current market situation... A broad risk-off mode has taken hold across all markets. I believe this risk-off sentiment is what drove gold prices down." Haberkorn added: "Until the US Fed provides clearer guidance, gold and silver prices remain under downward pressure." (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at Saxo Bank stated that gold futures prices closed below their 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, following last Friday's non-farm payrolls report and a broad deterioration in risk sentiment that also weighed on stock markets. The combination of a resilient US economy and rising inflation expectations is creating a challenging environment for gold, overshadowing long-term supportive factors such as central bank purchases, fiscal concerns, and reserve diversification. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:19 on June 10, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Guangdong: Over 3 million charging facilities to be built province-wide by the end of 2027, meeting the charging demand of more than 8 million NEVs] The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other departments recently issued the "Guangdong Province EV Charging Facility High-Quality Development Action Plan." The plan proposes to build a high-quality charging facility system where super-charging, fast charging, and slow charging complement each other by continuously innovating application scenarios, improving charging networks, enhancing charging efficiency, optimizing service quality, and innovating the industrial ecosystem. This aims to promote the balanced development of charging facilities in eastern, western, and northern Guangdong alongside the Pearl River Delta region, and facilitate the wider purchase and use of EVs. By the end of 2027, the province will have cumulatively built over 3 million charging facilities to meet the charging demand of more than 8 million NEVs; the province will achieve "super-charging coverage in every county," with the number of super-charging stations no fewer than the number of gas stations. (Jinshi Data APP) [CPCA: Retail sales in China's domestic narrow PV market reached 1.51 million units in May 2026] According to the latest retail sales statistics from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), retail sales in China's domestic narrow passenger vehicle (PV) market reached 1.51 million units in May 2026, down 22.1% YoY, but up 9.2% MoM. Cumulative sales from January to May totaled 7.099 million units, down 19.5% YoY. US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.95. Data: The weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending May 23 was 29,000, compared to the previous figure of 35,750. Jay Woods, Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, stated that the US May headline CPI YoY rate is expected to jump from 3.8% to 4.2%, which would be the highest level since March 2023. But the real concern isn't the headline number; it's the potentially entrenched "sticky" items like housing, insurance, and services. These categories could keep inflation persistently above the US Fed's comfort zone, as they may remain elevated for longer. Woods noted that high inflation driven by gasoline is typically less worrying, whereas sustained price increases in housing and services could be a trend that takes time to reverse. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 98.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 1.8%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged through July is 85.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point hike at 12.6% and a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 1.6%. (Jinshi Data APP) China Securities pointed out that in the short term, the probability of a US Fed interest rate hike remains low, and market concerns about Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, based on assumptions of sticky domestic US inflation and a persistently hot job market. CME FedWatch data indicates that the most likely timing for a Fed rate hike expected by markets outside China begins in late October 2026. The current tightening of global liquidity and market adjustments represent a front-running reaction to expectations of a Q4 Fed rate hike. Regarding the domestic bond market, increased expectations for Fed tightening are not bearish. China's bond market is relatively independent and has a small correlation with US Treasuries. Furthermore, given ample domestic liquidity, the anticipated tightening of overseas liquidity and adjustments in equity markets could potentially drive capital flows into the bond market, supporting the current level of long-term bonds. Subsequently, China's 10-year government bond yield is expected to continue oscillating around the 1.70% level; a break below 1.70% still requires the emergence of new incremental information from domestic sources. Data: Today will see the release of China's May CPI YoY, the US May unadjusted CPI YoY, the US May seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, the US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, the US May unadjusted core CPI YoY, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of June 10, and China's May M2 money supply YoY (date TBD), among other data points. Also, attention should be paid to: the Bank of Canada's announcement of its interest rate decision; and the monetary policy press conference held by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with US crude oil down 2.85% and Brent crude oil down 2.03%. Oil prices were volatile on Tuesday. Trump stated earlier in the day that negotiations with Iran were "in the final stages of a very, very good deal," pushing Brent crude lower. However, Trump subsequently posted on social media stating that Iran had shot down a US Apache helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz and declared "the US must respond," causing oil prices to jump immediately. Iranian officials further warned afterward that "foreign military forces near Iran face risks," briefly lifting oil prices further. Despite this, crude oil closed lower. (Wall Street CN) Data: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 5 fell by 9.119 million barrels, compared to an expected draw of 3.421 million barrels, with the prior figure showing a draw of 6.757 million barrels. The US API gasoline inventory for the week ending June 5 fell by 1.191 million barrels, compared to an expected draw of 614,000 barrels, with the prior figure showing a build of 3.454 million barrels. (Jinshi Data APP) The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated on Tuesday local time that due to crude oil production losses exceeding 11 million barrels per day in the Middle East caused by the Iran war, major consumer nations are drawing down inventories to bridge supply shortfalls at an unprecedented rate. Consequently, oil inventories among OECD members are heading toward their lowest levels since at least 2003. The EIA stated that under its current assumptions, where maritime shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before the beginning of 2027, total oil inventories held by OECD member nations will fall to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jinshi Data APP)