As the core production area for lepidolite in China, Yichun in Jiangxi Province has drawn significant industry attention for its special compliance rectification of lithium mines. Amid an uncertain outlook, two other publicly listed firms decided to "partner up" and consolidate their resources. On the evening of June 22, Canmax and Yongxing Materials simultaneously disclosed that Canmax's holding subsidiary, Yichun Shengyuan Lithium Co., Ltd. ("Shengyuan Lithium"), signed an Equity Increase and Cooperation Agreement with Yongxing Materials' holding subsidiary, Yifeng County Huaqiao Yongtuo Mining Co., Ltd. ("Huaqiao Yongtuo"), and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Yifeng County Huaqiao Mining Co., Ltd. ("Huaqiao Mining"). Under the agreement, Shengyuan Lithium will use the porcelain clay (lithium-bearing) ore from the Jinzifeng-Zuojiali mining area in Fengxin County and Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province ("Jinzifeng Mine"), which it holds, to increase its capital in Huaqiao Mining. According to the announcement, Shengyuan Lithium will contribute the Jinzifeng Mine, valued at 2.692 billion yuan, to Huaqiao Mining, subscribing to 200 million yuan of newly added registered capital in exchange for a 50% equity stake in Huaqiao Mining upon completion. The 200 million yuan will be recorded as Huaqiao Mining's registered capital, and the remaining 2.492 billion yuan will be recorded as its capital reserve. Of this, the registered capital and capital reserve contributed by Shengyuan Lithium will be exclusively owned by Shengyuan Lithium, while all shareholder equity of Huaqiao Mining existing prior to Shengyuan Lithium fulfilling its capital contribution obligations will be exclusively owned by Huaqiao Yongtuo. After the capital increase, Huaqiao Mining's registered capital will grow from 200 million yuan to 400 million yuan, with Huaqiao Yongtuo and Shengyuan Lithium each holding a 50% stake. Huaqiao Mining will simultaneously hold the mining permits for both the Huashan Mine and the Jinzifeng Mine. Huaqiao Mining will then apply to the relevant authorities to merge the mining rights for the Jinzifeng Mine and Huashan Mine into a new single mining right. Using this new right as the vehicle, it will apply for a safety production permit and other required procedures for production and construction at an annual mining capacity of 18 million mt, with Huaqiao Mining subsequently taking unified charge of all ore extraction. Regarding ore extraction, the announcement specifies that it will be organized uniformly by Huaqiao Mining. In principle, mined ore from within the original Jinzifeng Mine boundary will be sold to Shengyuan Lithium or its designated third party, while ore from within the original Huashan Mine boundary will be sold to Huaqiao Yongtuo or its designated third party. Regarding the management of the future consolidated mines, the announcement states that Huaqiao Mining will be managed and operated through separate divisions for Huashan Mine and Jinzifeng Mine. Shareholders, the board of directors, and management shall respect historical practices and adopt lawful and compliant management, dividend distribution, and sales models to minimize the impact of differing ore resource endowments between Jinzifeng Mine and Huashan Mine on the investment returns of both shareholders and subsequent beneficiation revenues. On the mining right consolidation, both publicly listed firms note that Huashan Mine and Jinzifeng Mine are adjacent. Under relevant laws and regulations, a safe production setback distance must be established between adjacent mines during mining operations. Both parties believe the consolidation aligns with the national policy direction of intensive development of strategic mineral resources. On one hand, integrating the two adjacent mining areas of Jinzifeng Mine and Huashan Mine will allow coordinated development planning and safety production control, optimize the overall mining layout, strengthen the mine safety management system, and ensure long-term compliant and stable operations. On the other hand, the mine consolidation is expected to fully release the mineral resource potential within the mining area, increase total recoverable resources and the comprehensive utilization rate of mineral resources, thereby achieving scientific, standardized, and efficient resource development. It is worth noting, however, that the effectiveness of the agreement between Yongxing Materials and Canmax remains subject to two conditions. First, the transaction must be approved by the competent authorities of all parties involved. Second, the primary mineral types of both Jinzifeng Mine and Huashan Mine must be changed to "lithium ore." As the "Asian Lithium Capital," Yichun saw many mines in earlier years extract lepidolite under porcelain clay mining certificates, leading to long-standing issues such as certificate-mineral mismatches, extensive mining, ecological pollution, underpayment of taxes and fees, and non-compliant approval levels. In July 2025, the new Mineral Resources Law designated lithium as an independent strategic mineral at the national level, setting a lithium ore recognition threshold of 0.4% Li₂O, elevating lithium mine approval authority, and significantly increasing resource taxes. In July 2025, the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau issued a notice identifying that eight lithium-related mining rights, including Jianxiawo, had problems such as circumventing higher-level approval authority and handling procedures beyond their mandate. It required the preparation of mineral type change reserve verification reports to be completed by the end of September that year. The newly disclosed mining rights evaluation reports from Canmax and Yongxing Materials indicate that work such as reserve verification and development plan formulation for the Jinzifeng Mine and Huashan Mine has been completed, an application to change the main mineral type has been submitted, and the Ministry of Natural Resources accepted it on March 12, 2026. The main mineral type is expected to be changed to lithium ore. In its 2025 annual report, Yongxing Materials also noted that Huaqiao Mining needs to change the mining types on its mining license, and therefore must pay the mining rights transfer proceeds for the lithium ore resources that have historically been exploited at the Huashan Mine but not yet compensated through paid disposal. As of the end of 2025, Huaqiao Mining had accrued 144 million yuan in mining rights transfer proceeds payable. However, both evaluation reports emphasize that "this evaluation is based on the proposed change of the main mineral type to lithium ore, and the final outcome is subject to approval by the Ministry of Natural Resources and the issuance of a new mining permit." The reports also caution, "If the change is not approved, the evaluation results will become invalid."

In recent years, Indonesia's energy transition has shown clear signs of acceleration. As the government sets more ambitious renewable energy targets, and as mining decarbonisation, island-based power system upgrades, floating PV project development and local manufacturing build-out continue to advance, the long-term growth potential of Indonesia's solar PV, energy storage and microgrid markets is opening up further.

From June 3 to June 5, Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 120+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Conference Background of Tin Forum In 2022, both LME and SHFE tin annual prices closed lower, and the market at the time may not have anticipated that this would serve as the prelude to a three-year upward cycle. From 2023 to 2025, tin prices recorded three consecutive years of gains, with both LME and SHFE tin surging over 30% in 2025. Entering 2026, the upward trend has continued, with tin prices hitting a new record high and becoming one of the most closely watched metals in the industrial metals market. However, this rally has not been smooth. In the past two years, tin prices have fluctuated significantly within an upward channel, driven by deep adjustments in global supply-demand patterns, especially multiple disruptions on the supply side. On the demand side, emerging sectors such as AI servers, PV welding strips, and NEVs have rapidly risen, coupled with a recovery in consumer electronics, continuously highlighting tin's strategic value in high-end manufacturing and steadily expanding rigid demand. On the supply side, global tin resources are highly concentrated, production resumptions in Myanmar have fallen short of expectations, some ex-China mining areas have been disrupted by geopolitical factors, and Indonesia—a key link in global refined tin supply—has seen its industrial policy adjustments become a critical variable affecting market expectations. Reviewing Indonesia's tin industry policy, the past two years have shown a clear trajectory of "standardizing and regulating, tightening exports, and promoting downstream development." In 2024, the Mining Work Plan (RKAB) was adjusted from an annual to a three-year basis, and exports experienced temporary fluctuations during the policy transition. In 2025, Indonesia further strengthened governance over illegal mining, shutting down some illegal tin mines, cracking down on smuggling activities, and adjusting tin ore royalty fees, leading to higher production costs. Entering 2026, the policy direction has become clearer, with studies on restricting refined tin exports, lowering export quotas, and plans to raise tin royalty tax rates, promoting the transition from resource exports to high value-added processing. These adjustments are reshaping the rhythm and trade patterns of the global tin supply chain. As an important platform connecting the global tin industry chain with the Indonesian resource market, the Tin Forum focuses on the latest developments in Indonesia's tin policies, the evolution of the global tin supply-demand pattern, price trend analysis, and industrial cooperation opportunities. It brings together government officials, industry experts, miners, smelters, and downstream end-user representatives to jointly explore new opportunities in the global supply chain amid the transformation of Indonesia's tin industry. Click to view photo gallery of tin forum Tin Forum June 4 Visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is pleased to announce that an SMM-led delegation, headed by SMM Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager Jenny Wu and made up of delegates from the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2026 , conducted a formal visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) on June 4. The event was organized by SMM and co-organized by Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Economic Council, Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI), and MMR, with the Jakarta Futures Exchange as the strategic partner. This visit underscores SMM’s commitment to fostering long-term, win-win partnerships between Indonesia’s top mineral exporters and global metals industry stakeholders. Supply and Demand Exchange Session June 5 Opening Remarks Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Keynote Speech Keynote Speech: DRC Tin Ore: Current Supply Status and Market Dynamics Insights Speaker: Raj Chug, General Manager, Mining Mineral Resources Keynote Speech: African Tin Ore: Resource Potential and Supply Chain Breakthrough Paths Amid Supply Shortages Speaker: Egyul Mamoko， Metallurgist Expert， CTCPM (Cellule Technique de Coordination et de Planification Minière) [Panel Discussion] Global Tin Mine Supply Seminar: Current Status, Opportunities, and Future Challenges Moderator: Vicky Qiao, Senior Analyst at SMM Panelists: Egyul Mamoko, Metallurgist Expert, CTCPM (Cellule Technique de Coordination et de Planification Minière) Erwin Setyawan, Head of Trading & Operation, Jakarta Futures Exchange Joseph G. Miller Esq, Strategic & Defense Metals Specialist/Director, Mission Critical Metals, Mission Critical Metals Keynote Speech: The Development Trend of the Tin Market in China Speaker: Zheyu Zhang, Tin Market Analyst, Marketing Department, Yuntin (Honghe) Investment Development Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Opportunities and Challenges for Smelters Under Indonesia's New Tin Industry Policies Speaker: Yazid Kanca Surya, Chief Executive Officer, Jakarta Futures Exchange Fragmented Global Supply Chain System Reshaping of the Geopolitical Landscape : Trade disputes and geopolitical tensions are profoundly altering traditional commodity trade patterns. Industrial Security :Countries are increasingly prioritizing long-term stable supply of strategic resources over short-term price advantages. Focus on Critical Minerals : Tin’s industry role is no longer isolated; it has become a core issue in the global energy transition and high-end manufacturing sectors. Evolution of the Tin Market The industry is entering a new phase where credibility is as important as capacity. Promoting Downstream Industrialisation (Hilirisasi) •Historical Development Background: Indonesia has long been dominated by the supply of primary processed products, with most downstream value addition achieved outside China. • Strategic Goals : Indonesia is adjusting export policies, trade management, and supply chain oversight to retain high-value-added industries within the country. Strengthening regulation and cracking down on illegal mining are not punitive measures, but rather efforts to build a transparent system to help the local area vigorously promote the development of downstream industries. Smelters Under Pressure Upstream uncertainties: Illegal mining disrupts the market, raw material supply fluctuates, and price trends are difficult to predict. Downstream market requirements: Strict compliance standards, full transparency in raw material traceability, and continuously rising screening thresholds for buyers. Market Volatility Intensifies The uncertainty in the current operating environment has increased significantly. Enterprises must not only cope with production risks, but also simultaneously address the multiple pressures arising from external shocks and rising operating costs. Investment Barriers in Deep Processing Keynote Speech: Deepening Downstream Diversification, Joining Hands to Foster Long-term Prosperity Guest Speaker: HARRY BUDI SIDHARTA, S.T, MM., Vice President Director, PT Timah (Persero) Tbk Keynote Speech: Challenges and Opportunities for China's Tin Industry amid Global Tin Ore Supply Changes Guest Speaker: Huanbo Qin, Market Analyst, International Tin Association China Keynote Speech: Analysis of Global Tin Price Trends and Future Outlook Speaker: Vicky Qiao, Senior Analyst, Shanghai Metals Market Price Trend Overview Price Review: Amid macroeconomic and geopolitical disruptions, market fundamentals have provided structural support Key Points: Tight mine-side supply has established a long-term price floor, while macro liquidity has primarily driven price fluctuations. Tin Resources and Mine Supply Landscape Supply elasticity is limited, accompanied by a high geographic concentration of reserves; the global static mine life is less than 15 years. Rising mine production alongside shrinking global resources has accelerated reserve depletion in producing countries. DRC: Output from major mines remained stable; however, M23 militant activities increased market uncertainty. ►Risks 1. The M23 armed conflict has spread to the Masisi region east of the Bisie mine and the Goma border crossing between the DRC and Rwanda, directly disrupting the original tin ore transportation route via Goma to Dar es Salaam. 2. To mitigate conflict risks, security at the Bisie mine has been reinforced, and freight routes have been adjusted northward to reroute through Uganda, ultimately destined for the port of Mombasa in Kenya. Nevertheless, market concerns persist that further spread of the M23 conflict could disrupt normal production operations at the mine. 3. The DRC recently experienced an Ebola outbreak, with confirmed cases concentrated in Beni and Bunia, areas adjacent to Uganda. Strict disease prevention measures have been implemented at both the mine and along transportation links; Bisie's mining and freight activities have yet to be affected by the pandemic impact. However, the market remains apprehensive about the local mineral supply outlook. Myanmar's Man Maw Tin Mine: Production Resumptions Hindered • 90% of Myanmar's tin ore production is concentrated in Wa State. To ensure rational resource extraction and stable regional development, Wa State suspended all tin ore mining starting in 2023, with new mining permits only reissued in July 2025. Due to the local rainy climate, the mine pits accumulated significant water during the suspension, making drainage the primary challenge upon work resumption. As the water accumulation issue affected multiple pits, the cost-sharing arrangements for drainage among mining enterprises were long delayed and never finalized. The resulting obstruction of drainage work has directly constrained the mine's production resumption progress. •In February 2026, the local government issued detailed rules clarifying the cost-sharing standards for drainage, and the Wa State tin mine immediately began resuming production. •Currently, strict approval and control of civilian explosives in Myanmar, compounded by disruptions to mining and logistics caused by the rainy season, have led to progress in local production resumptions falling short of expectations. Full resumption is expected only by 2027. The number of new tin mine projects globally is scarce, with generally low ore grades and lengthy development-to-production cycles. New projects generally have low ore grades, posing upside risks to future mining costs and increasing operational difficulty. Only three new projects have grades above 1%. Lower ore grades mean that more raw ore must be processed to produce the same amount of tin metal. The future supply landscape will be markedly differentiated, with total planned and under-construction projects reaching 173.5 kt in capacity, and just four major projects accounting for over 67%. Global supply will be highly dependent on these core mine projects, while five new projects in Australia can only bring a small incremental increase with limited impact. Global Tin Ingot Supply The high concentration of primary tin smelting capacity limits the global supply elasticity of tin ingots. Keynote Speech: Achieving the Trading and Risk Hedging of Pure Tin Ingots Through the Standardized Trading Mechanism of the Futures Market – Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Authority Guest Speaker: Ima Siti Fatimah, Head of the Commodity Futures Trading Development Bureau, Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia Keynote Speech: Under the Drive of Geopolitical Policies: Global Strategic Metal Tin Trade Restructuring, Breakthroughs in North American Secondary Production, and New Logic in Solder Consumption Guest Speaker: Joseph G. Miller Esq, Strategic & Defense Metals Specialist/Director, Mission Critical Metals, Mission Critical Metals ► Securing Supply: US Plan to Reshore Critical Metal (Tin) Capacity • Lessons drawn from COVID-19 and World War II. • No primary tin capacity currently exists in North America: no tin ore mining operations, no tin ore smelting capacity. • The US secondary tin market is regionally fragmented. • The US government supports the Nathan Trotter primary/secondary tin smelter. • The Trump administration has made multiple investments in the critical metals sector. • Security situation in the DRC and surrounding regions. ► Data Center Tin Consumption Estimates How much tin is consumed per gigawatt of installed data center capacity? • Servers, GPUs, network systems: 500–1,500 mt. • Power systems, switchgear: 100–400 mt. • Control devices, communication equipment, cooling systems: 50–200 mt. • Tin usage per gigawatt of installed AI data center capacity is approximately 1,200–1,500 mt. Additionally, the speaker noted: the PV industry's annual tin consumption is about 25,000 mt, with average annual new installations of around 30 GW, corresponding to tin demand of 36,000–45,000 mt. Keynote Speech: Due Diligence in the Indonesian Tin Sector: A Tradition of Early Adoption and Pathways for ESG Leadership Guest Speaker: Josue Ruiz, Director of Facility Engagement, Responsible Minerals Initiative Keynote Speech: Malaysian Tin Mine: Market Breakthrough and Global Expansion from the Perspective of Critical Minerals Guest Speaker: DATO DEREK TENG, Director of the SETARA JELITA SDN BHD, President of the MALAYSIA MARITIME SILK ROUTE RESEARCH SOCIETY Critical Minerals in the New Era Strategic Positioning and Core Applications of Tin National Strategic Cornerstone: Listed in the “Critical Minerals List” by many countries, it holds an irreplaceable core position in securing national resource security and maintaining the resilience of global supply chains. Modern Industrial Lifeline: The core raw material for electronic solder manufacturing, it supports semiconductor packaging, PCB circuit boards, and other electronic information industries, serving as the “industrial monosodium glutamate” of modern manufacturing. Frontier Technology Engine: Empowering emerging technologies such as 5G communications, NEV batteries, PV modules, and AI chips, it drives the dual transformation of the digital economy and green transition. Tin: The “Industrial MSG” Driving High-Tech Industries ► A Core Member of the Global Critical Minerals System U.S. Official Designation: According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “2025 Critical Minerals List,” tin is formally listed as a critical mineral, regarded as a strategic resource vital to national economic development and national security. Global Industry Consensus: In the mineral assessment systems of the EU and other developed economies, tin also occupies a core position. It is an indispensable “emerging cornerstone mineral” supporting the global digital economic transformation and the upgrade of the new energy industry. The global tin application structure in 2025 is very clear: 53% is used in semiconductors and high-end electronic solder, 16% in fine tin chemical new materials, 11% in food-grade tinplate and tin cans, and 8% directly in the PV green new energy industry. Tin Applications in High-Growth Sectors Currently, three major high-growth tracks worldwide are continuously driving rigid incremental demand for tin. First, AI computing power and hyperscale data centers: The tin consumption per unit of high-end AI servers is 3–13 times that of ordinary servers. With the explosive growth of global AI computing power demand, the demand for high-end solder will continue to grow rapidly. Second, new energy vehicles: Tin consumption per vehicle is about three times that of internal combustion engine vehicles, and for intelligent car models, it can reach up to 1.5 kg per vehicle. Third, advanced packaging: The solder ball usage of advanced packaging technologies such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is more than five times that of traditional DRAM. Malaysia at a Crossroads The Decline of a Former Empire and Opportunities for Transformation ► Glorious History · Tin Empire: In the 1960s, Malaysia was the world's veritable "Tin Empire." Its tin production once accounted for one-third of the global total, and revenue from tin exports represented as much as 60% of the country's total export revenue, dominating the global tin trade landscape. ► Current Situation · Dual Challenges: However, after industrial iteration, its share of global production was only 0.2% in 2023, with annual output falling to 6,100 mt, marking a sharp decline. Malaysia still holds considerable secondary resource reserves of 780,000 tonnes, with native ore depleted but tailings holding significant potential. ► Future · Reshaping Value Strategic Empowerment: Leverage the new strategic identity of “critical minerals” to enhance discourse power and bargaining power in the international supply chain. Industrial Leap: Shift away from dependence on primary tin ingot exports and move towards high value-added deep processing manufacturing and the establishment of a circular economy system. Core Challenges Faced Currently, Malaysia’s tin industry faces four core structural challenges. Market Breakthrough: Reshaping Value Embrace the New Identity and Extend into Downstream High Value-Added Sectors Build a Regional Circular Economy Center Core Strategy: Fully leverage Malaysia’s industrial advantage as a global electronics manufacturing center, turning the large amount of tin-containing scrap generated during production—including solder dross, waste circuit boards, etc.—into valuable recycled tin resources, and establish an “urban mining” resource recycling system. Keynote Speech: From Waste to Value: How Smelters and Recycling Enterprises Uncover Hidden Treasures in Tin Ore By-Products Guest Speaker: Justin Wang, Director of Marketing and Technology, Stannum Solutions(Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

Philippine Market: Port inventories continued to accumulate, high freight costs coupled with smelters pushing for lower prices, ore prices faced increasing downside risks This week, CIF China quotes for Philippine nickel ore were generally flat WoW, with no significant loosening or increases across various grades. Specific quotes were: CIF China: Ni 1.3% at $49–52/wmt, 1.4% at $57–60/wmt, 1.5% at $65–67/wmt; CIF Indonesia: 1.3% at approximately $48–50/wmt, 1.4% at approximately $56–58/wmt. Supply and Weather As of June 12, Philippine nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports totaled approximately 5.77 million wmt, equivalent to around 45,300 mt in nickel metal content, up WoW as supply remained ample. Weather conditions at mining areas were relatively manageable, with no major typhoons or heavy rainfall disrupting supply chains recently. However, spot freight rates stayed high, providing minimal support for miners' FOB prices, intensifying cost pressure on miners' shipments. Some mines opted to hold off on shipments, awaiting next week's new round of bidding results before making decisions. Demand and Inventory Demand side, smelters' desire to bargain down prices remained strong, continuing to pressure miners with ample inventories, while the buyer-dominant landscape persisted. Smelters in both China and Indonesia held inventories that fluctuated at highs, with weak short-term restocking willingness and sluggish trading in the market. Considering the continued accumulation of port inventories, high freight costs squeezing miner margins, coordinated price pushing by smelters, and rising wait-and-see sentiment among miners, ore prices could edge down further in the coming weeks. Indonesian Market: Smelters' High Inventories Continued to Weigh on Prices, Premiums Showed a Narrowing Trend The HMA was unchanged at $18,799.29/mt. Theoretical HPM prices were: Ni 1.6% at approximately $70.75/wmt, 1.2% at approximately $49.84/wmt. The delivery-to-factory price for 1.6% ore was $73.8–78.8/wmt, with premiums at +3 to +8 dollars, flat WoW and significantly narrower than earlier highs. Looking ahead, with ore supply continuing to be ample and smelters' willingness to bargain down prices increasing, premiums are expected to have room to decline further. Indonesia's local ore supply was relatively abundant, with some mines taking advantage of weather windows to maximize production. According to BMKG: Sulawesi (Morowali Utara) experienced relatively dry weather with calm seas and smooth shipping; East Halmahera saw persistent rainfall with wave heights of 1.4–2.0 m; Obi had light rain with wave heights of 1.3–1.6 m, with shipment efficiency affected in both areas. This week, the saprolite ore market saw ample cargo availability and relatively active trading volumes. However, with inventories at many smelters staying at sufficient levels, the desire to push for lower prices strengthened noticeably. In some industrial parks, unloading vehicle queues appeared this week, directly reflecting the market reality of loose ore supply and persistently high delivery-to-factory volumes. Traded grades were concentrated at 1.45–1.50% Ni, while high-grade ore (≥1.6%) remained scarce. In addition, spot limonite ore was priced at approximately $26–34/wmt, with the price range widening. The market exhibited some divergence, with select transactions at lower prices and a few at higher levels, as the overall center shifted slightly lower WoW, mainly dragged down by high freight costs. The discount to the theoretical HPM price remained deep and detached. Sulphuric acid supply stayed relatively tight, HPAL operating rates were low, and purchasing prices for limonite ore remained under pressure. Policy Developments Newly approved RKAB for nickel ore were relatively rare this week, with the market widely expecting more approvals to be released in July. Meanwhile, Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated that the government would implement an "orderly and flexible" policy for 2026 mineral and coal RKAB, where production quota adjustments would be linked to global commodity price trends and domestic industrial demand—moderately expanding production when prices rise and tightening promptly when prices are under pressure to maintain supply-demand balance. This statement reserved policy space for within-year quota revisions, warranting ongoing market attention to the release periods of subsequent official documents. The DSI takeover mechanism for ferroalloy exports entered a transition period on June 1, with NPI (HS 7202.60.00) highly likely to be included; Harita’s PT Trimegah had already completed the first DSI single-window export declaration, with smooth operations. The government was simultaneously pushing forward a strict crackdown on under-invoiced contracts, with relevant departments set to consult with industry associations to close loopholes.

Chapter 1: The Energy Crisis Reshapes Coking Coal Value In 2026, with the Russia-Ukraine war still ongoing and the U.S.-Iran war reigniting, crude oil price centers continued to shift upward. Coupled with persistent geopolitical conflicts in other regions worldwide, energy security demand climbed, driving a systematic revaluation of coking coal value. Moreover, against the backdrop of high oil prices, the cost advantages of coal-based chemicals over oil-based chemicals began to emerge, improving the economics of coal-to-oil substitution and expanding coking coal demand. Coking coal possesses the dual attributes of industrial raw material and energy commodity, supported by both rigid demand and high elasticity to energy prices, with premium capacity far exceeding that of ordinary industrial products. Market perception underwent a fundamental shift, as coking coal gradually shed its subordinate positioning within the steel industry chain and was upgraded to a scarce strategic energy asset. The energy crisis restructured its valuation logic. Pricing broke free from the singular steel supply-demand framework and was incorporated into the global energy price comparison system. Energy and security premiums elevated the valuation center, making it an important target for hedging geopolitical risks and allocating strategic resources. Chapter 2: Global Coking Coal Market Landscape (1) Global Coking Coal Resource Distribution Data source: publicly available data Global coking coal resources account for 13% of total global coal resources, approximately 1,140 billion mt. About 49% are distributed in Europe, 29% in Asia, and 19% in North America. The economically recoverable reserves of coking coal are approximately 500 billion mt, of which high-quality coking coal with low ash and low sulfur content amounts to only about 60 billion mt. Economically recoverable coking coal resources are primarily concentrated in three countries: Russia (42%, approximately 210 billion mt), China (23%, approximately 115 billion mt), and the US (18%, approximately 90 billion mt), with other countries accounting for relatively small shares. (II) Global Coking Coal Production Distribution Data source: publicly available data Global coking coal production in 2025 was approximately 1.1 billion mt, with a highly concentrated production landscape. China ranked first at 514 million mt, accounting for 47% of global production and serving as the core supply pillar, though virtually all output was consumed domestically. Australia (172 million mt) and Russia (98 million mt) ranked second and third, followed closely by the US (59 million mt), Mongolia (54 million mt), and Canada (32 million mt), while India produced 25 million mt and Indonesia produced 11 million mt. These eight countries collectively accounted for 88% of global coking coal production. Data source: World Steel Association, IEA Major producing countries: China firmly held the top global position with absolute volumes rising from 480 million mt (2020) to 514 million mt (2025), achieving the highest global increase of 34 million mt, primarily driven by new domestic mine commissioning and supply security policies. Russia and Mongolia became key growth contributors with increases of 12 million mt and 23 million mt respectively — the former benefiting from post-sanction market redirection and new mine development, while the latter achieved substantial production increases through upgraded border customs clearance with China and railway cost reductions. Australia's capacity remained basically flat. EU countries (Germany, Poland) and Ukraine continued to cut production due to factors such as coal phase-out policies, aging mines, and geopolitical conflicts, while the US, India, Mozambique and other countries achieved capacity growth driven by export demand and downstream industry boost. (III) Analysis of Global Coking Coal Export Trade Data source: publicly available data Global coking coal export trade is highly concentrated in five countries—Australia, Russia, Mongolia, the US, and Indonesia—primarily for the following reasons: Monopolistic resource endowment: Russia accounts for 42% of the world's recoverable coking coal reserves, and the US accounts for 18%. Australia possesses globally scarce high-quality coking coal resources with low ash and low sulfur content. Mongolia and Indonesia also have distinctive coal varieties suited to blending needs. These resource barriers create a supply-side monopoly. Locational and logistics cost advantages: Australia's coking coal producing regions are adjacent to east coast ports, enabling low-cost seaborne access to the world's core steel-producing regions. Mongolia's mining areas border China, with overland logistics providing direct access to the Chinese market. Russia, the US, and Indonesia leverage mature seaborne and cross-border railway networks to achieve efficient coverage of global demand markets. Industrial structure and supply-demand mismatch: Although China holds 23% of the world's coking coal reserves, as the world's largest steel producer, China has extremely rigid coking coal consumption demand, making it the world's largest coking coal importer. In contrast, the five countries mentioned above have limited domestic consumption and surplus coking coal supply. Their industrial structures are centered on resource exports, providing a supply foundation for large-scale exports. Coal quality and global demand matching: The coal varieties from these countries form a complementary supply system. Australian coal is suited to high-end coke demand, Mongolian coal serves as a premium blending raw material, Russian coal covers the full range of varieties, and US and Indonesian coal meet the blending needs of different steelmaking processes. This precisely matches the rigid blending needs of global steel enterprises, forming a stable export pattern. Chapter 3: China's Coking Coal Market (1) Current Supply and Demand of Coking Coal in China Data sources: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), General Administration of Customs of China, publicly available data Supply side, China's coking coal concentrate production grew steadily, rising gradually from 480 million mt in 2020 to 514 million mt in 2025, with overall supply scale remaining stable and no wild swings observed. Import and export side, imports became the core variable supplementing China's domestic supply: imports briefly declined 24% YoY to 54.768 million mt in 2021, then entered a sustained expansion trajectory, with 2025 imports surging 117% from 2021 to 118 million mt; exports remained at low levels over the long term, once plunging 89% YoY to 92,000 mt in 2021, then gradually rebounding, but the 2025 export volume of 1.175 million mt had minimal impact on the overall market. Demand side, coking coal concentrate demand also maintained mild growth, with 2025 demand reaching 628 million mt, a modest increase from 2020. Demand growth was primarily supported by the concurrent expansion of coke production (coke production reached 502 million mt in 2025). Overall, China's domestic coking coal production growth was unable to fully match demand expansion, with imported resources effectively filling the supply-demand gap. (II) China's Coking Coal Supply-Demand Balance Data source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), publicly available data From 2020 to 2025, China's coking coal concentrate market completed a transition from tight supply to a tight balance with a slight surplus, with both supply and demand expanding simultaneously and market operational stability improving significantly. The supply side exhibited a sustained and steady growth trend, with the release of domestic capacity combined with supplementary import resources jointly driving continuous enhancement of supply capability. The demand side maintained mild expansion, primarily supported by rigid production demand from the coke and steel industries, with overall growth notably slower than the supply side. By phase, from 2020 to 2022, the market was in a state of persistent undersupply, with supply gaps appearing in all three years, and the industry was highly reliant on imported resources to fill the supply-demand gap. In 2023, the market reached a structural turning point, achieving a supply surplus for the first time; in 2024, the surplus scale expanded significantly; in 2025, the surplus pulled back, but the market had thoroughly shed its prolonged deficit status. With China's coking coal concentrate supply assurance capability continuing to improve, combined with flexible adjustment of import channels, the market entered a healthy tight balance range where supply was slightly greater than demand. Chapter 4: Global Coking Coal Supply-Demand Balance Data source: IEA, publicly available data From 2020 to 2025, the global coking coal market gradually shifted from maintaining a slight surplus to a slight supply-demand deficit. The long-term tightening of global premium coking coal resources, compounded by multiple external factors such as the restructuring of the global energy landscape triggered by the energy crisis and shifts in national energy policies, ultimately drove the global coking coal market from a relatively loose state in the earlier period to a slight deficit. Chapter 5: Summary Affected by geopolitical conflicts and energy transition, the strategic value of coking coal continued to rise, with energy security premiums becoming prominent, and the overall industry landscape gradually evolving toward a tight supply-demand balance. Global coking coal production is limited, with low-ash, low-sulfur premium resources being particularly scarce. Reserves, capacity, and export trade are all highly concentrated, with a few countries such as Russia, China, the U.S., and Australia controlling the supply side, forming a monopolistic landscape through advantages in resources, logistics, and coal grade complementarity, while the energy crisis brings new opportunities and challenges. Overall, coking coal markets both in and outside China have shifted toward a tight balance, with structural shortages of premium coal grades being a prominent issue. The coking coal market may hold up well throughout 2026.

As mid-year approaches, financial reports of major listed overseas mining companies for the first quarter have all been released. A combination of earthquakes, falling ore grades, floods and other disruptions has hampered global mine operations, driving down overseas zinc concentrate output both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026.