The US National Science Foundation announced that the University of Alaska Fairbanks-led Critical Mineral Accelerator Engine will receive US$15 million during its first two years. Subject to performance milestones and future appropriations, total funding could reach as much as US$160 million over the next decade. The initiative will support technologies across mineral exploration, extraction, processing and purification, including artificial intelligence, advanced geoscience and microbial mining methods. Alaska hosts occurrences of 56 of the 60 minerals classified as critical by the US Geological Survey and is home to the Red Dog zinc-lead mine and numerous polymetallic prospects. Industry participants include Alaska Silver, whose Illinois Creek project hosts silver- and gallium-rich galena mineralisation. The programme is expected to support exploration, processing innovation and workforce development for Alaska’s zinc, lead and other critical mineral resources.

[7.15 Morning Meeting Minutes] The US will blockade Iranian ports starting at 4 a.m. on the 15th; Trump stated that a 20% fee will be charged on cargo transportation and may manage the Strait of Hormuz in the future. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract surged during the night session and consolidated in the morning session, closing at 129,250 yuan/mt, with an increase of 0.43%. Over the weekend, renewed tensions in the US-Iran conflict, along with a simultaneous rise in the US dollar and crude oil, exerted pressure on metals. However, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially announced on July 10 that it would no longer raise overall national nickel ore mining production quotas, with increases to be very limited and strict exception approval channels set only for domestic smelters facing severe raw material supply shortages. In the short term, nickel prices may rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price range at 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

On July 14, China Northern Rare Earth's stock price rose. As of the close on July 14, it was up 2.18% to 39.83 yuan per share. In market news, China Northern Rare Earth released its semi-annual earnings forecast, showing: Based on preliminary estimates by the company's financial department, net profit attributable to owners of the parent for H1 2026 is expected to be between 1.98 billion and 2.06 billion yuan, representing an increase of 1.05 billion to 1.13 billion yuan compared with the same period last year (as per statutory disclosure data), up 112.74% to 121.33% YoY. Excluding non-recurring items, net profit attributable to owners of the parent for H1 2026 is expected to be between 1.99 billion and 2.07 billion yuan, an increase of 1.093 billion to 1.173 billion yuan YoY, up 121.90% to 130.82%. The main reasons for the expected profit increase in the period are: In H1 2026, the company served the national rare earth resource strategy and fully implemented the requirements for safety control of the rare earth industry chain. Affected by factors such as supply constraints on the raw material side and the release and sustained growth of downstream demand at multiple points, rare earth product prices generally strengthened and consolidated. The company focused on its annual production and operation targets, carried out integrated planning and comprehensive measures, strengthened comprehensive budget management, and worked on cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency gains in a coordinated manner. It scientifically organized production scheduling, intensified marketing operations, deepened reform and innovation, and strengthened group management and risk control. The company advanced the deep integration of professional management, lean management, and 5S management to a high standard, promoted key project construction, and accelerated the development of new quality productive forces through management and R&D innovation. With strong value creation capabilities across the industry chain and core competitiveness, the company provided solid support and assurance for achieving good operating results. The company refined the organization and operation of production scientifically, with production volumes of rare earth smelting and separation products, rare earth metal products, and new rare earth materials all reaching historical highs for the same period; the subsidiary Inner Mongolia Northern Rare Earth Magnetic Materials Co., Ltd. achieved operating revenue of approximately 9.5 billion yuan in H1, up about 107% YoY, maintaining growth for three consecutive years; the subsidiary Inner Mongolia Xi'ao Ke Hydrogen Storage Alloy Co., Ltd. officially put its first batch of 1,000 hydrogen-powered two-wheelers into operation in Baotou, with a cumulative safe driving mileage of 170,000 kilometers, demonstrating notable project success. The company persisted in benchmarking against internal and external excellence, tapping into internal potential, and strengthening refined management, leading to significant improvements in multiple economic and technical indicators. Targeted measures were adopted for each business segment: In smelting and separation, the division overcame new cost changes brought by rising prices of raw and auxiliary materials, effectively managed cost fluctuations, scientifically organized production scheduling, and ensured new product supply demands. In rare earth metals, leveraging the concept of lean production as a starting point, digital and intelligent methods were further used to strengthen on-site process operation management, driving new breakthroughs in economic and technical indicators such as quality and material ratios. In new rare earth materials and applications, the segment fully utilized newly added capacity advantages, precisely aligned with client needs, and made new progress in promoting sales through production. Deepening industry chain synergy, the Company solidified the foundation of downstream client cooperation while ensuring stable product supply. The Company closely tracked market demand, strengthened marketing management, optimized sales structure, client credit evaluation, and product account period management, adjusted and shortened account periods by category, secured the fundamental base with long-term agreement orders, and met differentiated market demand through retail. Sales of rare earth metals and magnetic materials rose steadily, achieving full coverage of top-tier magnetic material players; sales of lanthanum-cerium products increased YoY, further digesting historical inventory; sales of polishing materials increased YoY; 5 new equipment items and 20 customized and distinctive new products were developed, continuously expanding product application scenarios. Key project construction advanced efficiently, continuously enhancing intelligence and informatization levels. The first phase of the rare earth green smelting upgrade and transformation project has been put into production, with the entire production line connected; the second phase construction is progressing in an orderly manner. Projects across the industry chain, including mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, joint ventures, cooperation, and capacity expansion and production increase for rare earth metals, magnetic material alloys, magnets, and secondary resource utilization, are accelerating toward implementation. The secondary resource utilization project achieved volume increase and quality and efficiency improvement; the Company accelerated its pace of digital and intelligent transformation, with digitalization and intelligence levels continuously improving. Regarding the 2026 operating plan, China Northern Rare Earth announced in its 2025 annual report: 2026 is the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan and a crucial year for the Company to advance high-quality development and accelerate the building of a world-class rare earth leader. The Company will uphold Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as its guide, take fostering a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation as the main theme, fully implement the spirit of the 20th CPC National Congress and all previous plenary sessions of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and translate into action the important speeches and instructions of General Secretary Xi Jinping on Inner Mongolia and the rare earth industry, as well as the decisions and plans of higher-level authorities such as the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Baotou City. Adhering to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, the Company will fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, bravely shoulder its responsibilities and missions, steadily improve the quality and efficiency of operations, build an industry system covering all elements and categories, promote the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation with industrial innovation, accelerate the pace of deepening reforms, enhance modern governance capabilities, continuously strengthen core functions and enhance core competitiveness, accelerate the realization of a world-class rare earth leader, ensure a good start and solid beginning for the 15th Five-Year Plan, and make new and greater contributions to the construction of the "Two Rare Earth Bases." The main production and operation targets for 2026 (these targets are merely planned objectives, and there is uncertainty as to whether they can ultimately be achieved. They do not constitute a substantive commitment by the Company to investors. Investors and relevant parties should maintain sufficient risk awareness and understand the differences between plans, forecasts, and commitments): achieve operating revenue of 44 billion yuan or more, and total profit of 3.5 billion yuan or more. While achieving operational targets, employee compensation is linked to enterprise economic performance and labor productivity in the same direction. Looking back at the price trend of Pr-Nd oxide in H1, SMM data show that it started the year at 609,000 yuan/mt, then hit a H1 high of 890,000 yuan/mt by the month-end of February, marking a cumulative increase of up to 46.7% from the beginning of the year. The core driver came from the supply side: spot Pr-Nd oxide remained tight, futures surged sharply, suppliers held back from selling amid strong bullish sentiment, and metals enterprises were stockpiling ahead of holidays, all of which pushed prices up rapidly. At the same time, disruptions in Myanmar ore supply, domestic separation plants resuming production slower than expectations, and boosted market sentiment formed a combined effect of "undersupply + bullish holdback." However, during March-April, affected by bearish supply-side news and lackluster demand from end-user traditional sectors, the Pr-Nd oxide price quickly pulled back to around 700,000 yuan/mt. That said, the rise in China Northern Rare Earth's concentrate prices in April, supply support from production halts at separation plants, and the release of export orders under the export control extension window jointly drove prices to rebound slightly. Starting in May, the downstream gradually entered the off-season, and purchasing became more cautious. It was not until late June that the Pr-Nd oxide price was boosted again by factors including the official implementation of the Mineral Resources Law Implementation Regulations, which designates rare earths as strategic minerals, and production cuts at scrap recycling enterprises due to tax invoice issues, rebounding to 7.425 billion yuan/mt on June 30. According to SMM quotes, as of July 14, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 762,500 yuan/mt, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. Currently, influenced by the intense tug-of-war between upstream and downstream, the oxide market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, while the metals market is relatively sluggish in terms of inquiries, with suppliers holding their quotes relatively firm and showing no obvious adjustments. In the short term, as some raw ore separation and scrap recycling plants undergo production cuts and suspensions, oxide suppliers' willingness to sell at low prices is weak, which is expected to drive Pr-Nd product prices to drift higher. Recommended reading:

SMM Nickel July 14 News: Macro and Market News: (1) The US will blockade Iranian ports starting at 4:00 a.m. on the 15th; Trump: Will impose a 20% fee on cargo shipments; May take over management of the Strait of Hormuz in the future. (2) US Fed Governor Waller: If core inflation posts another hot reading this week, the FOMC will have to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. Spot Market: On July 14, SMM #1 refined nickel price increased by 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,100 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while domestically mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands ranged between -300-500 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged during the night session before consolidating in the morning session, closing the morning session at 129,250 yuan/mt, up 0.43%. Over the weekend, the US-Iran conflict took another unexpected turn, with synchronized rises in the US dollar and crude oil weighing on metals. However, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially announced on July 10 that it would not raise the overall national nickel mining production quota, with any quota increases to be very limited and only granted through a strict, special approval channel for local smelters facing severe raw material supply shortages. In the short term, nickel prices may see a rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract expected to trade within a range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

[7.14 Morning Meeting Minutes] On the 12th local time, US President Trump said the US carried out “heavy strikes” on Iran the night before. Regarding the navigational status of the Strait of Hormuz, there are disagreements among various parties. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority posted on social media on the 12th, stating that the Strait of Hormuz is currently impassable. Trump, however, said, “As far as the US is concerned, the Strait of Hormuz is still open.” The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract edged down in early trading, closing at 128,030 yuan/mt by the end of the early session, up 0.02%. Over the weekend, the US-Iran conflict took another turn. The simultaneous rise of the US dollar and crude oil weighed on metals, but Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially announced on July 10 that it will no longer raise the national nickel ore mining production quota overall. The increase will be very limited, with strict exception approval channels set only for domestic smelters facing severe raw material supply shortages. In the short term, nickel prices may rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract trading in a range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Nickel, July 13: Macro and market news: (1) On the 12th local time, US President Trump said the US had launched a "heavy strike" against Iran the previous night. There were conflicting statements about the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization of the Persian Gulf posted on social media on the 12th that the Strait of Hormuz was currently impassable. Trump, however, said, "As far as the United States is concerned, the Strait of Hormuz remains open." (2) Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting to hear a report on the progress of building a digital China and to study the cultivation of emerging pillar industries. Spot market: On July 13, SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -300 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract edged down in the morning session, closing at 128,030 yuan/mt as of the morning close, up 0.02%. Over the weekend, the US-Iran conflict took another turn, with the dollar and crude oil rising in tandem, weighing on metals. However, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially announced on July 10 that it would no longer raise the national nickel ore mining production quota across the board, and any increase in quotas would be very limited, with a strict special approval channel set up only for local smelters facing severe raw material shortages. In the short term, nickel prices could rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price expected to trade in a range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.