The EU's temporary steel safeguard expired at end-June 2026 and a permanent TRQ took its place — duty-free volume nearly halved to about 18.35 Mt, the out-of-quota duty doubled to 50%, and a first-ever "melt and pour" origin rule. Using the official allocations, this piece breaks the quota down category by category and country by country: HRC alone claims about 5.2 million tonnes, Türkiye takes the largest share, Taiwan, China is squeezed hardest — and CBAM stacks a second barrier on top.

The European Commission has launched a consultation on expanding the scope of its 2026 Steel Regulation, which cuts duty-free steel import quotas to 18.3 million mt/year, nearly 47% below 2024 levels, and raises the out-of-quota tariff to 50%. The regulation also introduces “melt and pour” traceability, requiring importers to identify where steel was originally melted and cast. The consultation considers adding four product groups, including stainless steel wire, steel wire, cast iron pipes and forged steel bars, and will remain open until September 30, 2026. The new rules could pose challenges for Vietnamese exporters using imported billets or hot-rolled steel, as products may be counted under the raw material’s country of origin rather than Vietnam. Vietnam’s steel exports to the EU already fell 18.3% in volume and 23.3% in value year on year in the first five months of 2026. Exporters, particularly those in stainless steel wire and steel pipes, are advised to closely monitor the consultation and engage with EU importers and industry associations.

The EU's new permanent steel measure (Regulation 2026/1384) entered into force on 1 July 2026, replacing the 2018 safeguard with an indefinite regime. The out-of-quota duty rose to 50% ad valorem from 25% and stacks on top of any existing antidumping or countervailing duties. Duty-free tariff-rate quotas were cut to about 18.3 million tonnes annually—roughly 47% below 2024 levels. From 1 October 2026, importers must provide "melt and pour" evidence identifying where raw steel was first produced in liquid form. European suppliers withdrew offers after the late-June country-quota publication, and the Fastmarkets HRC index for Northern Europe rose about €9/t to €690.94/t on 2 July. The regime is a structural reset for ex-China exporters into the EU; the enforcement date (1 July) sits just outside the strict 7-day window but remains the dominant trade backdrop this month.

New country-by-country quotas reward South Korea's balanced access and Indonesia's hot-rolled position, while Taiwan, China, Vietnam and Turkey face a tighter squeeze once melt-and-pour disclosure rules bite from October 1.

Under the EU's new steel trade regime, importers must prove the 'country of melt and pour'—where steel or iron was first produced in liquid form and cast into its first solid state—to improve supply-chain traceability. Evidence such as a mill test certificate is required from 1 October 2026; melt-and-pour data will feed into country quota distribution from 1 October 2027; and by 30 June 2028 the Commission will assess whether to make melt-and-pour the basis for quota eligibility, possibly via a legislative proposal. The rule targets origin-washing, raising the cost of routing non-EU steel—including Chinese stainless—through third countries to dodge quotas and duties.

The Council of the European Union has formally adopted a revised tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system set to enter into force on July 1, 2026, immediately after the current safeguard expires on June 30. The new regulation aims to reduce steel import quotas, apply higher duties to imports exceeding quota volumes, and introduce a strict "melt and pour" requirement to ensure traceability. This framework provides greater flexibility by allowing unused quotas to roll over within the same year but firmly limits non-EU influxes and Russian steel dependence. By strengthening import surveillance, these measures provide structural insulation for European domestic mills, allowing them to defend local pricing despite challenging market conditions.