[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Weaker Aluminum Prices Weigh on the Market, ADC12 Remains in the Doldrums] Spot side, the ADC12 market continued to fluctuate downward. Affected by the widening decline in aluminum prices, market sentiment turned cautious, and most enterprises lowered their quotations; a few enterprises temporarily held prices steady and stayed on the sidelines with support from costs. As the Qingming Festival holiday approaches, downstream stockpiling demand fell short of expectations, with procurement still mainly driven by rigid demand, and transaction performance showed no obvious improvement. Coupled with market expectations of weakening demand in April, ADC12 prices are still facing some downward pressure in the short term, and the market remains in the doldrums.

[Concerns Over Supply Shortfalls Triggered by Attacks on Middle Eastern Aluminum Plants Give Aluminum Prices Strong Upward Momentum] Overall, expectations of a substantive supply contraction triggered by attacks on Middle Eastern aluminum plants, combined with low global inventory and a recovery in peak-season demand in China, will provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to break out of their trading range and hold up well.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China held steady at 10,100-10,200 yuan/mt; prices for the same grade of stainless steel scrap off-cuts in Foshan dropped back slightly, with the price range at 9,700-10,000 yuan/mt. Raw material production cost side, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,218.64 yuan/mt, while the production cost of using only high-grade NPI was 14,745.57 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices remained largely stable, mainly as supportive and constraining factors were intertwined, with no obvious one-way trend. Stainless steel finished product prices edged down under pressure from weaker SS futures, and market sentiment was somewhat disturbed, but this did not directly transmit to the stainless steel scrap market, where prices remained stable. Substitute furnace charge performed steadily, with both high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome prices largely stable this week and showing no obvious fluctuations in change, so their overall impact in driving stainless steel scrap prices was limited and failed to provide effective support or drag. Factors supporting the stable performance of stainless steel scrap prices were more prominent. The recent tightness in stainless steel scrap tax invoices eased somewhat, improving the market trading environment. Meanwhile, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI remained in place. In addition, stainless steel mills' April production schedules stayed high, and steel mills increased their use of stainless steel scrap with economic advantages, lifting recent market trading activity, while previously accumulated inventory pressure also eased to some extent, providing strong support for stable prices. However, constraining factors also remained. Stainless steel finished product prices currently faced difficulty moving higher, and under this transmission effect, stainless steel scrap prices still faced some pressure to rise, making any obvious upward trend difficult to emerge. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a pattern of "strong support, clear constraints, and stable prices." Supportive and constraining factors counterbalanced each other, and stainless steel scrap prices were expected to remain stable in the short term.

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Pulled Back to Fluctuate Below 7.2]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio pulled back to fluctuate around 7.2, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, Powell released a dovish signal that long-term inflation expectations remained anchored, while LME Cash-3M shifted into a backwardation structure. Inventories outside China remained at low levels, cancelled warrants increased sharply, and LME zinc surged. On Friday, the LME zinc market was closed for a holiday.

As production order fully resumed after the Chinese New Year, the sodium-ion battery industry chain saw a strong recovery in March. Production across the four major segments—cathode, anode, electrolyte, and battery cell—posted substantial growth both YoY and MoM, with industry prosperity rebounding markedly.