SMM, Aug 14: Pr-Nd metal prices fell 1.13% this week but rebounded near the weekend to RMB 875,000/mt. Higher Pr-Nd oxide prices offered support, while volatile raw material costs kept some producers cautious. Net profit rose to RMB 2,574/mt, ending three weeks of losses. Downstream demand remained weak, but orders may improve as motor makers resume operations and the peak season approaches. Restocking could support prices, though gains depend on demand recovery and new oxide capacity.

During the first half of August, the domestic spent battery cell market exhibited a pattern of price divergence and sluggish trading activity.

On August 13, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) came in at -$175.37/dmt, down $1.46/dmt from -$173.91/dmt in the previous period. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic trade ore was reported at 98.5%-99.5%. Spot market activity this week declined WoW, with some mines launching tenders. Spot transaction side, a trader sold 10,000 mt of Carmen at an index deduction of $25/dmt, for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5, with the additional term that Ag below 20g is payable at 65%; a trader sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at an index deduction of $23/dmt, for October shipment, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 10,000-20,000 mt of Erdenet at an index deduction of $20/dmt; two other traders offered clean ore at index deductions of $24-25/dmt, for shipment from September to October; in addition, market talk indicated that a trader sold copper concentrates to a smelter at a fixed level of -$180/dmt. Mine tender side, for the previously tendered September high-arsenic ore, the transaction price on the trader side was -$260/dmt, QP: M+1/M+4, with 0.6-1g gold not payable; tenders are underway for 10,000 mt of Mantoverde for September shipment and 10,000 mt of Timok for shipment from September to October, and for 10,000 mt each of September and October BVC; tender results remain unknown. At present, against the backdrop of continued declines in the imported copper concentrate index and further widening of spot transaction deductions, some smelters have become less willing to accept pricing at index deductions of $20/dmt or above and have begun to negotiate based on fixed TCs; suppliers, however, still prefer to quote on an index deduction basis. Divergence between buyers and sellers over pricing benchmarks and reasonable deduction levels has widened, and progress on spot transactions has turned more cautious overall. Cochilco recently lowered its 2026 Chilean copper production forecast to 5.27 million mt Cu, down 2.6% YoY, mainly due to lower grades at large mines in H1, maintenance, slower project ramp-ups, and operating constraints. From January to June 2026, China imported 4.2808 million mt of copper concentrates from Chile, down 8.26% YoY, with the import share falling to 29.3%; the supply contribution of Chilean material to the Chinese market weakened on a phased basis. However, most miners are maintaining their full-year production guidance, mainly counting on a recovery in H2 driven by the switch to higher-grade ore sections, completion of maintenance, and project ramp-ups. Expectations for the restart of First Quantum's Cobre Panamá copper mine have increased. Panama’s Minister of Commerce and Industry, Julio Moltó, recently visited Donoso, Omar Torrijos Herrera, and La Pintada, where he met with mine workers, local governments, and suppliers; the relevant recommendations will be submitted to an inter-agency committee for evaluation. The mine is currently authorized to process stockpiled ore and has supported around 3,200 direct jobs and more than 3,000 indirect jobs. As of end-June, First Quantum had processed 2.1 million mt of stockpiled ore and produced about 3,200 mt of contained copper, with the first shipment expected to take place this month. A molten material leak incident occurred at the converter (C-Furnace) of PT Smelting's copper smelter in Gresik, East Java. Currently, there is no clear expectation for when the damaged equipment can return to service, and repairs are expected to take at least several weeks. Due to low in-plant copper anode inventory, the smelting outage has directly affected metal production on the refining side. Copper cathode shipments are expected to be disrupted in the coming weeks, and the plant is negotiating delayed deliveries with clients. In terms of capacity, PT Smelting Gresik has smelting capacity to process approximately 1.3 million dmt of copper concentrates per year, and its refining side has copper cathode capacity of 342,000 mt/year. According to Freeport-McMoRan's annual report, in 2025 the plant produced 230,300 mt of copper anode and 207,200 mt of copper cathode; due to raw material supply disruptions and maintenance, these were significantly lower than the 398,200 mt of copper anode and 335,200 mt of copper cathode in 2024. On August 14, 2026, SMM recorded copper concentrate inventories at 11 ports totaling 770,000 mt in physical content, up 78,000 mt in physical content from August 7. The main increases came from Qingdao Port, Fangchenggang Port, and Yantai Port, with respective WoW increases of 30,000 mt, 20,000 mt, and 23,000 mt; the main decrease came from Nanjing Port, down 10,000 mt WoW.

On August 14, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price declined.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Review] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal was quoted at 2,010 yuan/mt. For coking coal, safety inspections at coal mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi were strictly enforced, and the pace of production resumption fell short of market expectations, providing strong support for coking coal prices. The overall sentiment in online auctions improved, and market activity increased noticeably. In the short term, the coking coal market is likely to consolidate on a strong note. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of dry-quenched quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,925 yuan/mt. Supply side, coking coal prices remain firm, causing significant losses for coke producers and prompting voluntary production restrictions; coke supply has contracted. Demand side, some steel mills have expectations of blast furnace production resumptions, and rigid demand for coke is expected to increase. In addition, coke inventories at some steel mills are at low levels, and buying interest has picked up. However, end-user demand for finished steel has not changed materially, and steel mills are not yet ready to accept higher coke prices. In summary, under the combined effect of cost support and recovering rigid demand, some coke producers have already begun preparing for the first round of price increases. [SMM Steel]

[India] The Indian domestic steel market showed a mildly positive but cautious sentiment on Thursday. Prices edged higher in Mandi Gobindgarh, while Mumbai remained relatively stable, indicating limited improvement in market activity. Buying interest remains cautious with monsoon conditions continuing to weigh on construction demand. In northern Mandi Gobindgarh, HMS 1&2 (80:20) edged up by at 2.10USD/tonne delivered Mandi to (33,900 INR/tonne). Billet prices up 1.05USD/tonne delivered Mandi to (42,400INR/tonne). Meanwhile, Mumbai HMS 1&2 (80:20) unchanged delivered Mumbai (31,000INR/tonne). Rebar prices up 1.05USD/tonne delivered Mumbai to (47,200INR/tonne).