SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,216/mt and dipped to $12,181.5/mt in early trading. Copper prices then fluctuated upward in center and, near the close, touched a high of $12,420/mt, finally closing at $12,382.5/mt, up 1.64%. Trading volume reached 18,800 lots, and open interest stood at 298,900 lots, an increase of 3,875 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,730 yuan/mt and fluctuated rangebound in early trading, hitting a low of 95,550 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated upward all the way to a high of 96,780 yuan/mt, finally closing at 96,760 yuan/mt, up 1.26%. Trading volume reached 56,200 lots, and open interest stood at 186,300 lots, an increase of 598 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by increased long positions.
Apr 1, 2026 09:17[SHFE Aluminum Night Session Closed Higher, with Geopolitics and Fundamentals Jointly Supporting Aluminum Prices] Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, together with support from expectations of the gradual release of peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.
Apr 1, 2026 09:12[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Weak Trading in the Aluminum Alloy Night Session, ADC12 to Move Sideways in the Short Term] The aluminum alloy 2605 contract showed a pattern of opening higher and then fluctuating lower in the night session. It opened at 23,985 yuan/mt, hit an intraday high of 23,985 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 23,705 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 23,745 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, or 0.21%. Trading volume was 2,253 lots, down 5,248 lots from the previous trading day, while open interest stood at 6,784 lots, down 174 lots. Both trading volume and open interest pulled back, indicating weak trading sentiment in the night session.
Apr 1, 2026 09:02![Aluminum Semis Export Profits Continued to Rise, Recovering to Pre-Rebate-Cancellation Levels [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/JnyfJ20251217171654.jpg)
In Q1 2026, China’s aluminum semis exports showed a pronounced pattern of product-category divergence amid the interplay of three factors: the long-term impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates in December 2024, the divergence in demand structures outside China, and the sudden outbreak of geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.....
Mar 31, 2026 23:33Q1 SHFE Aluminum Price Review (By Stage) January: Market traded on Fed rate-cut expectations, decoupled from fundamentals Fundamentals: Spring Festival low season + demand vacuum + inventory accumulationAluminum prices rose continuously and hit a historical high for the period, squeezing downstream profit margins and weighing on primary aluminum demand.Environmental production restrictions in some regions constrained raw material consumption.Social inventories of primary aluminum kept accumulating. By the end of January, SMM social aluminum ingot inventory rose to 782,000 tonnes, the highest level for the same period in nearly three years. Macroeconomics: The Federal Reserve was in a rate-cut cycle in January. The U.S. dollar weakened notably, and large capital inflows into commodity futures boosted broad commodity prices.Coupled with positive domestic consumption-boosting policies, aluminum prices were well supported. February: Market traded on Fed rate-hold expectations, decoupled from fundamentals Fundamentals: Aluminum prices traded in a weak range.Domestic downstream fabricators sharply reduced purchases due to the Spring Festival holiday, while smelters raised ingot-casting activity, leading to continued accumulation in primary aluminum social inventories.After the holiday, SMM social aluminum ingot inventory climbed to 1.108 million tonnes. High inventory provided little upward support for aluminum prices. Macroeconomics: Diminished U.S. rate-cut expectations drove the DXY stronger. Profit-taking capital outflows triggered a pullback in aluminum prices, reinforcing the weak sideways pattern. March: Market swung between Middle East supply disruptions and demand headwinds Intensive long-short competition drove aluminum prices into a “rally – correction – rebound” volatile structure. Supply side: Frequent overseas production cuts continued to roil the market.Mozal entered maintenance. Qatar Aluminum announced it would halt further cuts and maintain 60% operating rate.Alba Bahrain shut down Lines 1, 2 and 3 under controlled and safe conditions, with market rumors later emerging that Line 4 may also face production cuts or shutdowns.EGA suffered severe facility damage, with the extent still under assessment; the market expects large-scale production cuts or shutdowns.Worsening concerns over global supply shortages became the key driver of periodic aluminum price gains. Escalating Middle East conflicts and safety concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heightened uncertainty over global primary aluminum supply, injecting sustained geopolitical risk premium and supporting high price levels. Demand side: Rising stagflation fears boosted risk aversion, pressuring aluminum prices to correct and limiting upside. Downside risks in overseas demand became prominent, as downstream fabricators faced multiple constraints:(1) High aluminum prices significantly suppressed purchasing willingness and restrained demand realization;(2) Shortages of natural gas, crude oil and other energy resources forced some fabricators to cut or halt production;(3) Sharply rising freight and smelting costs squeezed downstream margins, further dampening demand indirectly.
Mar 31, 2026 19:30I. Review of SHFE Aluminum Price Trends in Q1 2026 (by Stage) January: The market’s core trading logic deviated from fundamentals and centered on macro expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts Fundamentals: Chinese New Year off-season + demand vacuum + inventory buildup Aluminum prices continued to climb and hit a record high for the period, while downstream profit margins came under pressure, leading to weaker demand for primary aluminum. Repeated environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions constrained demand for raw materials. Aluminum social inventory continued to accumulate. As of end-January, SMM aluminum ingot social inventory rose to 782,000 mt, a high for the same period in the past three years. Macro front: In January, the US Fed was in an interest rate cut cycle, and the US dollar weakened significantly. Large amounts of capital flowed into the commodities futures market, driving broad commodity prices higher; together with favorable support from China’s consumption stimulus policies, this jointly supported aluminum prices. February: The market’s core trading logic deviated from fundamentals and centered on macro expectations for the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged Fundamentals: Aluminum prices were generally in the doldrums. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, procurement demand from China’s downstream processing enterprises dropped sharply, aluminum plants showed stronger willingness to cast ingots, and aluminum social inventory continued to accumulate. After the Chinese New Year holiday, SMM aluminum ingot social inventory rose to 1.108 million mt. Elevated inventory levels struggled to provide effective upward support for aluminum prices. Macro front: Cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts pushed the US dollar index higher, and profit-taking outflows triggered a pullback in aluminum prices, further reinforcing their weak and rangebound trend. March: The market’s core trading logic repeatedly switched between supply-side disruptions in the Middle East and demand-side suppression. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, dominating aluminum prices in a volatile pattern of “surge - correction - rebound.” Supply side: I. Production cut events occurred frequently on the overseas supply side, and disruptions continued to intensify. Mozal entered maintenance status. Qatar Aluminium Smelter announced its decision to stop further production cuts and maintain a 60% operating rate. Aluminium Bahrain initiated shutdowns of Production Lines 1, 2, and 3 under controlled and safe conditions, and the market later heard that Line 4 might also face production cuts or suspension. EGA’s aluminum plant facilities suffered severe damage, and the extent of the damage was still under assessment. The market expected it to undergo large-scale production cuts or suspensions. Ongoing concerns over continued tightening on the overseas supply side became the core driver pushing aluminum prices higher in stages. II. As the Middle East conflict continued to escalate, shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz drew widespread market attention, further increasing uncertainty over global aluminum supply and continuously injecting a geopolitical risk premium into aluminum prices, supporting prices fluctuating at highs. Demand Side: 1. From a macro perspective, concerns over stagflation continued to intensify, risk-off market sentiment picked up, dragging aluminum prices into a pullback and limiting upside room. 2. Hidden concerns on the demand side outside China became more prominent. Some downstream processing enterprises were constrained by multiple factors, triggering market concerns over weak demand: 1) high aluminum prices significantly suppressed downstream purchase willingness, hindering demand release; 2) shortages of energy resources such as natural gas and oil put some processing enterprises under pressure to reduce or suspend production; 3) costs such as freight rates rose sharply, and together with higher smelting costs, further squeezed the profit margins of downstream enterprises, indirectly suppressing demand release. Source: SMM
Mar 31, 2026 19:27To better serve industrial clients and more closely align with the market, SMM has added a weekly price for 1.8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod Premium (Electroplating), Ex-works China, VAT included, yuan/tonne, which will be officially launched on the SMM website (smm.cn) on December 19, 2025. 1. SMM 1.8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod Premium (Electroplating), Ex-works China, VAT included, yuan/tonne Methodology 1.1 SMM Price Assessment Methodology General Provisions Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is a fully independent third-party service organization that does not participate in any actual transactions. Instead, it maintains close communication with buyers or sellers in the market as an observer or organizer and provides relevant services to the market. SMM continuously develops, reviews, and revises its methodology through communication with industry professionals, adopting the most common product specifications, trade terms, and trade conditions in the industry. Equal importance is given to normal transactions that meet the standard specifications. SMM reserves the right to exclude any price information deemed less reliable or unrepresentative from its price assessments. SMM publishes daily spot metal prices (or price indices, including those for the Chinese market, markets outside China, and global markets), commonly referred to as SMM prices. For each published SMM price, a corresponding methodology is established (all of which are available for reference on SMM’s official website, www.smm.cn). The methodology specifies the methods and procedures for generating and publishing SMM prices, and SMM strictly adheres to these guidelines when producing and releasing SMM prices. To align with the actual conditions of the spot market, SMM will make necessary revisions to the SMM price assessment methodology and announce these revisions on the official website www.smm.cn 28 days before their formal implementation. If you have any questions or suggestions regarding SMM prices or the methodology, please contact SMM customer service (contact information can be found on the official website www.smm.cn ). This document specifies the standards for formulating the weekly RC for 1.8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod Premium (Electroplating), Ex-works China, VAT included, yuan/tonne. The purpose of establishing this standard by SMM is to create a transparent and verifiable mechanism for SMM price formation. The SMM Benchmark Management Committee also regularly reviews the methodology and its assessment and publication processes. This committee oversees SMM’s methodology and compilation procedures, ensuring that the prices or indices accurately reflect the objective conditions of the physical spot market for the relevant commodities. If the committee identifies any issues, it will promptly highlight them and propose external consultation and revisions to the ongoing methodology or processes, thereby improving the quality of SMM’s published prices or indices. The committee may only propose modifications to the methodology and procedures used for future price or index assessments it cannot alter already published prices or indices. 2. Formation of 8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod Premium (Electroplating), Ex-works China, VAT included, yuan/tonne. 2.1 Significance of the Price Assessment Current copper rod industry faces increasingly prominent overcapacity issues, with low capacity utilization rates. The market for ordinary power-grade rods suffers from homogenized competition, processing fees are caught in internal competition, and profit margins for most enterprises are severely compressed. Against this backdrop, the copper rod industry is gradually transitioning toward high-quality development, enhancing product added value, expanding profit margins, and progressively addressing the structural imbalance of "excess low-end supply and insufficient high-end supply." Tin-plated copper rods, leveraging characteristics such as oxidation resistance, ease of welding, and strong stability due to the tin coating, meet the demands of high-end sectors like new energy vehicles and electronic devices. With the continuous expansion of emerging industries such as new energy and 5G communication, the tin-plated copper rod market holds broad prospects and will become a key direction for the transformation and upgrading of the copper processing industry. 2.2 SMM 1.8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod Premium (Electroplating), Ex-works China, VAT included, yuan/tonne Price Assessment Methodology 2.2.1 Product Specifications and Standards Given the wide variety of tin-plated copper rod specifications, SMM adopts the 1.8mm diameter, which holds a relatively high market share, as the basis for quoting tin-plated copper rod processing fees, with reference to the standard GB/T3952-2016 Copper Rod for Electrical Purposes. 2.2.2 Price Terms Ex-works, China, 1.8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod premium top on SMM 1# Copper Cathode 2.2.3 Payment Terms cash, other terms normalized. 2.2.4 Delivery Time Within 3 days. 2.2.5 Reference Transaction Volume Min 1 tones. 2.2.6 Delivery Location China 2.2.7 Price Release Time Weekly, by 11:30 am Beijing time, last working day of every week. 2.2.8 Processing Fee Format The reported processing fees are presented as a range, indicating the lowest and highest prices. For example: 1.8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod Premium (Electroplating), Ex-works China, VAT included, yuan/tonne range 3,000–4,000 yuan/tonne, average: 3,500 yuan/tonne. 2.2.9 Price Collection Methodology SMM will, in accordance with the price collection confirmation agreement, have price analysts regularly collect price information from copper foil industry price contacts via phone, QQ, WeChat, fax, and email. This price information includes concluded transaction prices, the enterprise's expected most likely pending transaction prices, etc. All instant messaging content, email communications, and any records of face-to-face communications will be archived details of phone communications will be recorded and entered into the database. SMM analysts must comply with the Compliance System when reporting any forced or threatened communications from market participants, or any induced offers attempting to influence the assessment. Once published, SMM will not revise or adjust the price on the same day. 2.2.10 Standardization of Data Although SMM has standardized definitions for our prices, diversity exists in market transactions. The price of each transaction is influenced by numerous factors, including order size, brand of goods, delivery time, payment terms, etc. SMM will comprehensively consider market offers, bids, and transaction information, aligning them with our standards. Each price datum will be electronically recorded or accompanied by written records. All electronic and paper records must be archived by price collection personnel and retained long-term (at least 5 years) in secure network and physical environments. For details, please refer to the SMM Data Retention Policy. 2.2.11 Price Assessment Process The specific process is as follows: 2.3 Methodology Changes All markets change, and SMM has a responsibility to ensure that the methodology for market reports evolves with the market. Therefore, SMM will regularly conduct internal reviews of the methodology's appropriateness based on industry feedback. For all substantive but non-urgent potential modifications, SMM will follow a formal external consultation process. Major changes will then be announced with a notice period of at least 28 days, inviting industry comments, unless special circumstances, particularly force majeure (natural disasters, war, exchange bankruptcy, etc.), necessitate a shorter notice period. SMM is committed to carefully considering all comments on proposed methodology changes, but in some cases, it may be necessary to proceed with changes contrary to the wishes of some market participants. Additionally, SMM has a formal methodology consultation process. SMM commits to holding a formal consultation on the methodology every three years. The date of the last consultation and the deadline for the next consultation committed by SMM are located at the top of the methodology document. 2.4 Compliance with SMM Policies All relevant SMM employees must not only comply with the methodology published by SMM but also adhere to SMM's internal standards and policies. These include: SMM Conflict of Interest Policy, SMM Whistleblower Policy, SMM Error Correction Policy, SMM Methodology Review Consultation and Change Policy, SMM Complaints Policy, etc. Welcome more relevant enterprises in the industry chain to participate and support SMM in better serving related enterprises in the Copper Cathode Rod industry chain. For inquiries, please contact: Shanghai Metals Market Copper Research Team, Xinyang Wang Contact: 021-20707846, +86 15762822325
PriceDec 11, 2025 19:27Dear User, Greetings! In recent years, the rare earth-NdFeB magnetic material industry chain has been continuously developing. During the process of refining its industry chain, SMM identified that the existing NdFeB-related data in the original terminal could no longer meet market demands. Therefore, after multiple rounds of surveys and verification, SMM has revised and expanded its original NdFeB data. The specific adjustments are as follows: NdFeB Production: 1. Discontinued 1 data point, namely the Monthly NdFeB Magnet Output by Manufacturer. The discontinued data location: Rare Earth - Rare Earth Production – NdFeB Magnet. 2. Added 5 data points, respectively [National Monthly Total Production], [Monthly Total Production of Sample Enterprises], [Monthly Production of Top-Tier Enterprises], [Monthly Production of Mid-Tier Enterprises], [Production Volume of Marginal Enterprises per Month]. The above data locations are all under Rare Earth - Rare Earth Production – NdFeB Magnet. 3. The above data are all updated monthly, with the update date being the last working day of each month, and the data dimension being the current month's data. 4. The data start date is January 2025. NdFeB Operating Rate: 1. Added five data points: [National Average Operating Rate], [Average Operating Rate of Sampled Enterprises in the Current Month], [Operating Rate of Top-Tier Enterprises in the Current Month], [Operating Rate of Mid-Tier Enterprises in the Current Month], [Operating Rate of Marginal Enterprises in the Current Month]. 2. The above data are located under Rare Earths - Rare Earth Operating Rate – NdFeB Magnet. 3. These data are updated monthly, with the update date being the last working day of each month, reflecting the current month's data. 4. The data series begins in January 2025. NdFeB Capacity 1. Added new category: Rare Earth - Rare Earth Capacity 2. Added four data points: [Quarterly Total NdFeB Capacity in China], [Quarterly NdFeB Capacity of National Top-Tier Enterprises], [Quarterly NdFeB Capacity of Mid-Tier Enterprises Nationwide], [Quarterly NdFeB Capacity of Small-Scale Enterprises Nationwide] 3. Location of the above data: Added new category: Rare Earth - Rare Earth Capacity 4. The above data is updated quarterly, with the update date being the last working day of the final month of each quarter. The data dimension reflects the current quarter. 5. The data start date is March 2025. NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance 1. Discontinued 3 data series: [SMM NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance: Supply], [SMM NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance: Consumption], [SMM NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance: Supply-Demand Balance] 2. Added 3 data series: [SMM NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance: National Total Supply], [SMM NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance: National Total Consumption], [SMM NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance: National Total Supply-Demand Balance] 3. Data location: Rare Earth - Supply-Demand Balance - NdFeB 4. These data series are updated monthly on the last business day of each month, reflecting the previous month's data (e.g., July data updated on August 29). 5. Data coverage starts from January 2025. Pr-Nd Alloy Supply-Demand Balance 1. Added a new classification for Pr-Nd alloy supply-demand balance 2. Added three datasets: [SMM Pr-Nd Alloy Supply-Demand Balance: Supply], [SMM Pr-Nd Alloy Supply-Demand Balance: Consumption], [SMM Pr-Nd Alloy Supply-Demand Balance: Supply-Demand Balance] 3. Data location: Rare Earth - Supply & Demand Analysis - Pr-Nd Alloy 4. The above data is updated monthly, with the update date set as the last working day of each month, reflecting the current month's data 5. The data series starts from January 2025 NdFeB Production and Operating Rate Forecast 1. Discontinued two data series: [Production - Forecast] and [Operating rate - Forecast]. 2. These will be replaced by two alternative data series: [NdFeB - Monthly production schedule expectation] and [NdFeB - Monthly operating rate expectation]. The above data adjustments will officially take effect on September 10, 2025. Users can then query the aforementioned data in the SMM data terminal. For any inquiries, please contact the SMM Rare Earth Research Team. SMM Rare Earth Research Team Shi Xin Contact: shixin@smm.cn
DataSep 8, 2025 18:51