The silver price has already shown this year how quickly dynamics in the precious metals market can change.

[Guotai Haitong Securities: Multiple Automakers Shorten Payment Terms for Suppliers, Improvement Expected in the Automotive Parts Industry Landscape] According to a research report by Guotai Haitong Securities, if automakers can strictly shorten payment terms for parts suppliers, the price differences of parts will become more pronounced, which will be beneficial for the improvement of the competitive landscape in the long run. The firm maintains an "overweight" rating for the industry and recommends high-quality parts companies that are expected to benefit from the improvement in the industry landscape. (Cailian Press) [Leap Motor's Zhu Jiangming: Least Favors and Hopes to Avoid "Price Wars"] On June 11, Zhu Jiangming, Chairman and CEO of Leap Motor, shared his views on the recent "price wars" in the automotive industry during a media interview: "In fact, the so-called price wars are not as intense as everyone imagines. Many companies are simply combining various discounts that were previously offered separately. This is a promotional strategy aimed at attracting more attention. We cannot arbitrarily reduce prices. We are the least inclined and hope to avoid engaging in 'price wars'." Li Tengfei, Vice President of Leap Motor, added: "Firstly, we do not participate in (price wars), nor do we initiate them; secondly, our cost control capabilities enable us to respond to such market changes, ensuring sustained profitability while maintaining product competitiveness." [Zhongtong Bus: Expected to Continue Positive Growth Trend in 2025] Zhongtong Bus (000957) stated during an institutional survey on June 12 that, based on industry and company operations, 2025 is expected to align with the initial forecasts and continue a positive growth trend, though there will be no significant changes compared to 2024. There will be certain adjustments in the product mix. In 2025, the domestic trade-in subsidy policy will continue with increased subsidy amounts. The integration of urban and rural areas will continue to drive the growth in demand for passenger, freight, and postal services, and the domestic bus market will continue to release incremental demand. After experiencing explosive growth in the previous year, the tourist bus segment will undergo adjustments. The proportion of new energy vehicle sales in exports is expected to increase significantly. [Guangxi: Intensifies and Expands Support for Trade-in Subsidies for Automobiles, Home Appliances, Home Furnishings, Kitchen and Bathroom Products, E-bikes, as Well as Purchase Subsidies for New 3C Digital Products] The General Office of the People's Government of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region recently issued the "Implementation Plan for Special Actions to Boost Consumption in Guangxi." The plan mentions intensifying and expanding support for trade-in subsidies for automobiles, home appliances, home furnishings, kitchen and bathroom products, and e-bikes, as well as purchase subsidies for new 3C digital products. The scope of subsidies for vehicle scrappage and renewal will be expanded to include eligible China IV vehicle emission standards fuel-powered passenger vehicles. The categories of subsidized home appliances and home furnishings, kitchen and bathroom products will be expanded to 24 and 48 categories, respectively, and the process for subsidy application and review will be optimized. In 2025, the sales of key commodities are expected to be boosted to exceed RMB 38 billion, driving the scrappage and renewal of 4,700 old commercial freight vehicles, the renewal of 400 new energy urban buses, the replacement of power batteries in 700 new energy urban buses, and the scrappage and renewal of 2,500 sets of old agricultural machinery. [Xinhongye: Early payments from downstream automakers will have a positive impact on the company] Xinhongye stated on an interactive platform that early payments from downstream automakers will have multiple positive impacts on the company, such as improving cash flow, reducing financial costs, and enhancing financial flexibility. While ensuring the provision of high-quality products and services, the company will explore win-win payment arrangements with customers. [Chervon Auto: No material information that should be disclosed but has not been disclosed] Chervon Auto (603982.SH) announced that the cumulative deviation in the closing prices of its shares over two consecutive trading days on June 11 and June 12, 2025, reached 20%, constituting abnormal fluctuations in stock trading. After self-inspection and written inquiries to its controlling shareholder, Chervon Precision Technology Holdings Co., Ltd., and the actual controller, Pan Longquan, the company confirmed as of the disclosure date of this announcement that there was no material information that should be disclosed but had not been disclosed. The company's production and operation are proceeding normally and orderly, and there have been no significant changes in its internal and external operating environments, except for the information already disclosed. (Finance News) Related Reading: Weekly Summary of the LFP Market in June [SMM Lithium Battery Market Analysis] [SMM Analysis] Behind the 60-Day Payment Commitment: Suppliers' Wry Smiles and Anticipation Quotations for cobalt-based products continue to fall, with Co3O4 prices dropping by RMB 7,650 in a single week. Will the decline stop next week? [Weekly Observation] [SMM Analysis] Rio Tinto and Codelco Join Forces to Enter the Lithium Triangle, Investing $900 Million to Develop a World-Class Salt Lake Project [SMM Analysis] Separator Prices Remain Stable [SMM Analysis] Raw Material Prices Drag Down Overall Prices, with Potential for a Bottom-Out Rebound During the Policy Window Period The battery and solid-state battery sectors strengthen again, with multiple automakers announcing the latest progress. Lopal shares hit the daily limit for nearly six consecutive trading days. [Hot Stocks] [SMM Analysis] Cathode Material Production Increased MoM in May, with Sluggish Growth in Downstream End-Use Demand [SMM Analysis] Anode Material Production Increased in May Due to Rising Demand [SMM Analysis] Co3O4 Production Increased MoM in May, with Most Industry Players Adopting a Cautious Wait-and-See Attitude Quotations for cobalt-based products collectively "fall," while cobalt chloride smelters maintain firm quotations. Will prices remain high and volatile in the future? [Weekly Observation] [SMM Analysis] The Impact of US Tariffs on China on the Export Methods and Prices of Chinese ESS Battery Cells to the US - An Exploration of Three Methods: "Direct Export from China, Re-Export via Malaysia, and US Domestic Production" (Part I) [SMM Analysis] The Impact of US Tariffs on China on the Export Methods and Prices of Chinese ESS Battery Cells to the US - An Exploration of Three Methods: "Direct Export from China, Re-Export via Malaysia, and US Domestic Production" (Part II) [SMM Analysis] The Impact of US Tariffs on China on the Export Methods and Prices of Chinese ESS Battery Cells to the US - An Exploration of Three Methods: "Direct Export from China, Re-Export via Malaysia, and US Domestic Production" (Part III) [SMM Analysis] New Breakthrough in Lithium Battery Technology: Can a Single Injection Extend Battery Life? [SMM Analysis] Lithium battery recycling procurement continued to decline in May, potentially marking the sluggishest period of the year [SMM Analysis] In May, the production of ternary cathode material increased by 3.52% MoM [SMM Analysis] In May, the production of ternary cathode precursor decreased by 3.99% MoM

On Wednesday local time, the US Fed released the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting on its official website. The minutes showed that Fed officials believed they might face a "difficult trade-off" in the coming months, with both inflation and unemployment rising, and increased economic uncertainty justifying a cautious monetary policy stance. The meeting minutes indicated that policymakers judged that the risks of both rising unemployment and inflation had increased since the March resolution, primarily due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies. This situation could create a conflict between the Fed's goals of price stability and full employment, forcing members to decide whether to prioritize tightening monetary policy to combat inflation or to support economic growth and employment by cutting interest rates. Participants agreed that, given the continued solidity of economic growth and the labour market, along with the current moderately tight monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had the flexibility to wait for greater clarity on the outlook for inflation and economic activity. However, it was evident that uncertainty about the economic outlook had further increased, and thus officials believed it was appropriate to adopt a cautious stance until the economic impacts of the Trump administration's series of policy changes became clearer. The meeting minutes highlighted the willingness of Fed officials to maintain interest rates unchanged for a period, as policy changes in Washington cast a shadow over the economic outlook. At the May meeting, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% for the third consecutive time. Following the interest rate decision this month, Trump made progress in trade negotiations with other countries. On May 8, Trump announced the outline of a new trade agreement with the UK. Subsequently, China and the US also agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on each other's goods. Despite this, US tariff rates remained at historically high levels, forcing many companies to put hiring and investment decisions on hold. Therefore, as the US economy adjusted to the higher tariffs proposed by the Trump administration, nearly all participants indicated that inflation might be more persistent than expected. The US Fed projected that, due to the impact of tariffs, inflation would rise "significantly" this year, while the job market was "expected to weaken substantially." Economists generally expected that tariffs would push up inflation and drag down economic growth, though they also lowered their expectations for a recession following the easing of trade tensions. The meeting minutes mentioned that Fed staff's forecasts for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 were lower than those presented at the March meeting, as the announced trade policies implied a greater drag on real economic activity relative to the policies assumed in staff's previous forecasts. It is expected that trade policies will also lead to a slowdown in productivity growth, thereby reducing potential GDP growth in the coming years. As of early May, officials also noted that the volatility in the US bond market in the weeks preceding the meeting was "worthy of attention," and pointed out that changes in the US dollar's safe-haven status, along with rising US Treasury yields, could have long-term impacts on the economy. The meeting also discussed the US Fed's five-year policy framework. Fed Chairman Powell stated that officials agreed on the need to reassess the key factors surrounding employment and inflation in the current monetary policy approach. The Fed's next meeting will be held from June 17 to 18, at which time the Fed will release policymakers' new forecasts for inflation, employment, and economic growth prospects over the coming period, as well as their expectations for interest rates that they deem appropriate. The market currently expects that the likelihood of an interest rate cut before the September meeting is almost zero.

William Pulte, Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), called out to Fed Chairman Powell on social media: "It's time to resume interest rate cuts!" "Really, enough is enough! Stop it already! Powell needs to lower interest rates. President Trump has crushed Biden's inflation, and there's no reason not to lower interest rates. If Chairman Powell does so, the real estate market will be in much better shape." He wrote. Pulte's latest remarks echo the "long-held wish" of US President Trump since taking office. Since assuming office, Trump has been continuously pressuring Powell to cut interest rates promptly, especially against the backdrop of indiscriminate use of "tariff sticks." However, can an interest rate cut really "cure all ills"? Many analysts' answer is no, and it is precisely because of Trump's economic policies that US home prices have been difficult to cool down. Some experts have pointed out that the US housing inventory remains limited, and this issue is unlikely to ease this year. Moreover, due to tariffs driving up US material prices and immigration policies leading to labor shortages, US builders lack the motivation to construct. Many companies and business groups have frequently warned that Trump's tariff policies will force them to raise prices. According to the US Fed's latest Beige Book, retailers generally expect to raise prices in the near future in response to tariffs. In early April, Trump stated, "This would be the best time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. He's always 'late,' but he can now quickly change his image. Lower interest rates, Jerome, and stop playing politics." Since cutting interest rates by 100 basis points in the second half of last year, the US Fed has remained inactive, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%. As of the interest rate-setting meeting in May this year, it was the third consecutive meeting where the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. At the press conference after the May interest rate meeting, Powell stated that the Fed does not need to rush to adjust interest rates, and the current policy is moderately restrictive. Trump's calls for interest rate cuts will not affect the Fed's work. He also pointed out that the White House's intermittent trade wars have created an environment of economic uncertainty. Currently, high home prices are one of the most stubborn areas of US inflation. Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, recently warned that Trump's policies on immigration, tariffs, etc., have kept US home prices high, which has increased the risk of rising US inflation and also led to greater resistance to interest rate cuts by the Fed. Economists generally expect that inflation in the US will rise—at least in the short term—which could lead the US Fed to maintain high interest rates for a longer period.

As trade tensions eased, the US Consumer Confidence Index rebounded sharply in May from a nearly five-year low, ending a streak of consecutive declines. Data released by The Conference Board on Tuesday showed that the US Consumer Confidence Index rose by 12.3 points to 98 in May, significantly surpassing the expected value of 87 and the previous value of 86. This marked the first monthly increase since November last year and the largest monthly gain since March 2021. The report also indicated that the index measuring Americans' short-term expectations for income, business, and the job market surged by 17.4 points to 72.8, though it remained below the 80 threshold, which typically signals an impending recession. Over the past few months, a series of policies introduced by US President Trump had triggered a global trade war and dealt a severe blow to American confidence. Last month, consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since the outbreak of COVID-19. However, this month, Trump made progress in trade negotiations with other countries. On May 8, Trump announced the outline of a new trade agreement with the UK. Most UK goods will still be subject to a 10% benchmark tariff. However, UK steel and aluminum will be exempt from the 25% tariff imposed by the US, while tariffs on the first 100,000 UK cars exported to the US will be reduced from 25% to 10%. Subsequently, China and the US also agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on each other's goods, representing an unexpected breakthrough for the market. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist for Global Indicators at The Conference Board, stated, "The Consumer Confidence Index improved in May after five consecutive months of decline. This rebound showed signs before the China-US trade agreement was reached on May 12 and has since gained momentum." The monthly improvement was primarily driven by consumer expectations, as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, job prospects, and future income—rebounded from their April lows. Consumers' pessimism about business conditions and job opportunities over the next six months eased, and they regained optimism about future income prospects. Consumers' assessments of the current situation also improved. Guichard added, "As the US stock market continued to rebound in May, consumers' outlook on stock prices improved. Forty-four percent of consumers expect stock prices to rise over the next 12 months (up from 37.6% in April), while 37.7% expect them to fall (down from 47.2% in April)." Perceptions of the labour market also improved, with 19.2% of respondents expecting more job opportunities in the next six months, up from 13.9% in April. Meanwhile, 26.6% of respondents expected job losses, down from 32.4% previously. Nevertheless, tensions remain. If countries fail to negotiate trade agreements with the US, by early July, the Trump administration will still have over 100 trade agreements to discuss, at which point his reciprocal tariffs will be re-imposed. Therefore, uncertainty remains high, raising the question: what does this mean for consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the US economy? Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, commented, "Consumer confidence may have soared, and Americans have reason to be happy given the reduction in tariffs, especially those on China. But when prices start to rise again in a month or two, it will be a sobering reminder that a new inflation battle has just begun." Many companies have already warned of raising the selling prices of their goods, with Walmart being the most prominent. The world's largest retailer recently stated that it would not be immune to the impact of Trump's tariffs and planned to raise prices on some items later this month as the trade war drives up costs.

Against the backdrop of the evolving global PV industry landscape, the US's newly introduced tariff policy on solar products from Southeast Asia is triggering a major transformation in the industry chain.