[SMM Global Steel Enterprise Special Report] A Detailed Analysis of US "Steel King" Nucor: 100% Electric Arc Furnace Forging High Profits, Vertical Integration Mitigating Cost Fluctuations Nucor Corporation is a company incorporated in Delaware in 1958. The company and its subsidiaries are engaged in the manufacture of steel and steel products. It also produces and procures ferrous and non-ferrous metal materials, primarily for use in its steelmaking operations. Most of its operating facilities and clients are located in North America. Its operations include international trading and sales companies responsible for buying and selling steel and steel products manufactured by the company and others. Nucor is also the largest recycler in North America, using steel scrap as the primary raw material for producing steel and steel products. In 2025, it recycled approximately 20 million gross tons of steel scrap. Operating Performance Data source: Nucor Corporation Annual Report、SMM Reasons behind the performance changes: ① Decline in gross profit: The primary reason for the decline in gross profit in 2025 was the compression of profit margins in the steel products segment. Due to lower average selling prices, gross profits from the grating and decking, building systems, and rebar fabrication businesses under this segment all experienced significant declines. ② Steel mill segment growth: In contrast, gross profit in the steel mill segment increased, primarily driven by higher sales and improved steel industry spreads. ③ Investment expenditures: Over the past three years, Nucor invested approximately $9.73 billion in capital expenditures and acquisitions, aiming to expand its product portfolio and enhance operational flexibility. Segments, Major Products, and Marketing Nucor reports its results in three segments: the steel mills segment, the steel products segment, and the raw materials segment. The steel mills segment is Nucor's largest segment, accounting for 62% of the company's sales to external clients for the fiscal year ended 2025. It primarily sells its products to steel service centers, manufacturers, and fabricating enterprises located in the US, Canada, and Mexico. In 2025, the steel mills segment sold approximately 19,848 kt of products to external clients. Data source: Nucor Corporation Annual Report、SMM The Steel Products segment primarily produces high-value-added downstream construction and industrial components, holding leading positions across the U.S. in multiple sub-segments including steel joists, prefabricated metal buildings, and insulated metal panels. It accounted for 29% of the Company's net sales to external clients for the year ended 2025. In 2025, total sales of major products in the Steel Products segment were approximately 1.478 million mt, including approximately 658,000 mt of steel joists and joist girders, approximately 436,000 mt of steel deck, and approximately 384,000 mt of metal building systems. Although physical sales volume (tonnage) was far below that of the Steel Mills segment, the per-mt selling price and profit margin were much higher than those of basic steel, and the segment also ranked first in market share across the U.S. in multiple areas. Data source: Nucor Corporation Annual Report、SMM The Raw Materials segment is the cornerstone of Nucor's vertical integration strategy, primarily operated through its wholly-owned subsidiary The David J. Joseph Company (DJJ), and manages DRI production facilities in Louisiana and Trinidad. By blending DRI with steel scrap, it supports electric arc furnace (EAF) production of higher-grade sheets & plates while ensuring cost advantages and supply security of raw materials. It accounted for 9% of the Company's net sales to external clients for the year ended 2025. In 2025, approximately 20 million gross tons of steel scrap were recycled and processed. Data source: Nucor Corporation Annual Report、SMM Clients and Markets Data source: Nucor Corporation Annual Report、SMM Major Development Projects in Recent Years The vast majority (91%) of Nucor's capital was allocated to internal construction (CapEx), strengthening core competitiveness through technology upgrades (such as electric arc furnaces and micro mills); a small portion was used for strategic acquisitions to achieve "outward expansion" into high-margin downstream areas. Through acquisitions such as SWDP, the company quickly entered high-barrier, high-growth sub-segments including data centers and green energy, making its business structure more resilient to cyclical downturns. Data source: Nucor Corporation Annual Report、SMM Core Logic of Vertical Integration for Cost Reduction: Raw Material Supply Structure Data source: Nucor Corporation Annual Report、SMM Core Risk Factors The greatest risk facing Nucor is a combination of internal and external challenges — internally, cost fluctuations in steel scrap and energy; externally, the impact of low-priced imported steel resulting from global (especially China's) overcapacity. Specifically: 1. Core Industry Risks ① Severe global supply-demand imbalance: Global steel surplus capacity reached 704 million net mt in 2025 (8 times US annual production). It is expected to further increase to 795 million mt by 2027. ② Regional impact: China's annual production has exceeded 1 billion mt in each of the past 8 years, and Chinese steelmakers continue to invest in new capacity in Southeast Asia and Africa. ② Import shock: This surplus leads to a flood of low-priced steel into the US market, creating significant downward pressure on Nucor's product prices, sales, and profit margins. 2. Production Cost Risks ① Steel scrap price sensitivity: Nucor uses 100% electric arc furnaces (EAF), with steel scrap being the largest cost item. Steel scrap prices fluctuate significantly and are beyond Nucor's control. ② Supply chain uncertainty: Although Nucor has achieved a degree of self-sufficiency through its DRI plants and DJJ recycling system, pig iron and iron ore pellets still rely on international procurement, facing geopolitical risks (e.g., Ukraine, Russia, Brazil). 3. Operational Challenges ① Energy-intensive nature: Steelmaking relies on large amounts of electricity (for melting) and natural gas (for heating and DRI production). ② Cost pass-through: Energy prices are affected by demand, the regulatory environment, and transmission infrastructure (pipelines/power grid), and cost surges may erode profits. 4. Compliance and ESG Risks ① Emission reduction pressure: The steel industry faces intense scrutiny due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. ② Policy risk: Although Nucor's emission intensity is far lower than its blast furnace peers, increasingly stringent environmental protection laws and regulations may increase capital expenditures or restrict operations at existing facilities. 5. End-Use Market Risks ① Industry cyclicality: The steel industry is highly correlated with the macro economy. ② End-use market fluctuations: Nucor's largest market is non-residential construction. If this sector (e.g., commercial offices, industrial facilities) contracts due to high interest rates or economic recession, it will directly impact Nucor's performance severely. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.
May 19, 2026 15:00The minutes of Tianhe Magnetics' investor briefing held on May 7 showed: 1. What is the trend in the revenue share of the NEV business, and how is the recovery in wind power, consumer electronics, and other segments? Tianhe Magnetics responded: Hello, thank you for your attention! The company's products are widely used in NEVs and parts, wind power, energy-efficient home appliances, consumer electronics, and other fields. Its clients are all industry leaders, and the company has been deeply integrated into the core supply chains of top-tier players in and outside China. During the reporting period, NEVs and parts remained the downstream segment with the highest share; wind power and consumer electronics segments recovered and grew YoY. The company adheres to a diversified strategy, deepens strategic cooperation with clients, strengthens client loyalty, and continues to expand downstream applications to support steady business growth. 2. What is the specific progress of "small-batch delivery" of dedicated magnets for humanoid robots, and what is the expected revenue contribution? Tianhe Magnetics responded: Hello, thank you for your attention! In the humanoid robot field, the company works closely with relevant clients to jointly conduct R&D and trial production of related projects. The specific revenue contribution is directly linked to the promotion and application progress of humanoid robots. 3. Against the backdrop of tightening rare earth export controls, how can the sustainability of the 44% ex-China business be ensured? Tianhe Magnetics responded: Hello, thank you for your attention! The company coordinates and obtains export licenses from the Ministry of Commerce in an orderly manner based on client orders to ensure the smooth and sustained operation of its export business. At the same time, the company actively expands markets outside China, deepens engagement with existing clients and develops new clients, increases efforts in developing zero-heavy-rare-earth products, and scales up product exports to ensure steady growth in ex-China performance. Tianhe Magnetics' Q1 2026 report disclosed on April 28 showed: the company achieved total operating revenue of 594 million yuan, up 13.12% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company was 47.873 million yuan, up 33.41% YoY. Tianhe Magnetics' Q1 report showed: raw material prices remained at high levels, and selling prices of some sales orders were raised, which in turn affected related profit indicators. Tianhe Magnetics' annual report showed: 2025 was the inaugural year of Tianhe Magnetics' entry into the capital market, and the company embarked on a new phase of high-quality development. Positioned at the forefront of the industry, amid the trend of high-end, intelligent, and green development in the rare earth industry, the company anchored on technological innovation and intelligent management as its core, deepened collaborative partnerships with clients, continuously optimized its supply chain layout, steadily released capacity from IPO-funded projects, and progressively implemented automated production line upgrades and green process improvements. Meanwhile, the company actively expanded its product portfolio and industrial reach into injection-molded magnets, bonded magnets, and magnetic assemblies to provide clients with comprehensive rare earth permanent magnet solutions. In addition, the company accelerated its positioning in emerging sectors such as humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy to build momentum for long-term growth. In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.346 billion yuan, down 9.47% YoY, total profit of 170.908 million yuan, up 18.81% YoY, and net profit of 161.161 million yuan, up 18.43% YoY. In its annual report, when introducing its main business, products, and application fields, Tianhe Magnetics stated: The company is a leading high performance rare earth permanent magnet material provider in China. With the corporate vision of "being a leader in permanent magnet material innovation," the company is primarily engaged in the R&D, production, and sales of high performance rare earth permanent magnet materials such as sintered NdFeB and sintered SmCo, while extending its industrial reach into injection-molded magnets, bonded magnets, and magnetic assemblies to provide clients with comprehensive rare earth permanent magnet solutions. With independent R&D and technological innovation at its core, and guided by the application scenarios and development needs of downstream cutting-edge fields such as NEVs and auto parts, wind power generation, intelligent manufacturing, and 3C consumer electronics, as well as emerging industries such as humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy, the company effectively leverages the fundamental and pioneering role of rare earth permanent magnets as key strategic materials, continuously advancing the innovation and application of high performance, resource-efficient rare earth permanent magnet materials to drive downstream technological innovation, product upgrades, and industrial transformation. Regarding the company's business plan, Tianhe Magnetics stated in its annual report: 2026 is the second year since Tianhe Magnetics' listing and the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Standing at a new starting point, the company adopts "innovation" as its annual development theme, upholds the philosophy of "breaking conventions and embracing change," and continues to deepen its presence in the high performance rare earth permanent magnet material field. Leveraging its two rare earth bases in Baotou, the company plans to focus on core technology upgrades and high-end market expansion both in and outside China, seize the strategic opportunities of the global energy transition and intelligent development, and drive "development" through "innovation." Under the leadership of the board of directors, the company plans to further integrate resources, leverage its strengths, and systematically advance various initiatives around its business objectives to ensure high-quality and sustainable development. In 2026, the company plans to focus on the following initiatives: 1. With "innovation" at the core, continuously strengthen R&D investment and drive product and technology upgrades. 2. Pursue new frontiers: focus on expanding new products, new clients, and new markets. 3. Continuously strengthen production and quality management to improve yield and turnover efficiency. 4. Deepen the construction of digital smart factories to continuously enhance production efficiency. 5. Steadily advance IPO-funded and new project construction to expand capacity and support performance growth. (1) Continue to advance IPO-funded project construction. In 2026, the company plans to continue advancing the implementation of IPO-funded projects as planned. Upon full production, the company will reach an annual capacity of 12,300 mt. The company plans to continuously improve manufacturing efficiency through automated production line upgrades, digital management system deployment, and green production process transformation, ensuring capacity alignment across all stages from blank production to finished product inspection, and laying a solid foundation for performance growth. (2) Advance the Tianhe New Materials project construction. The Phase I of the "Tianhe New Materials Rare Earth Zero-Carbon Industrial Park (High Performance Rare Earth Permanent Magnets and Assemblies, Equipment Manufacturing and R&D Project)" invested and constructed by the company's subsidiary Tianhe New Materials has been launched. Upon completion, the project will further expand the business scale and enhance the company's overall profitability, market competitiveness, and risk resilience. 6. Enhance intelligent equipment manufacturing capabilities and cultivate new growth drivers. 7. Management empowerment: continuously strengthen organizational and talent development. 8. Continue to improve ESG efforts and promote sustainable development. 9. Strengthen investor relations and market capitalization management to drive sustained enhancement of company value. When disclosing the risk of raw material price fluctuations, Tianhe Magnetics stated: The main raw materials required for the company's production are rare earth metals, which are relatively expensive and subject to notable fluctuations due to multiple factors including macro economy, trade environment, industrial policies, and market supply and demand. Although rare earth permanent magnet material enterprises can dynamically adjust product selling prices based on factors such as raw material price changes, some existing order prices are locked in, and price adjustments for new orders also involve negotiation cycles, so product price adjustments typically lag behind raw material price fluctuations. If raw material prices continue to swing wildly in the future and the company fails to respond in a timely and effective manner, it may adversely affect business performance. Countermeasures: To address this risk, the company continuously strengthens supply chain management, signs long-term agreements with major suppliers to establish stable partnerships, and implements a scientific raw material reserve strategy to smooth out the impact of price fluctuations. A review of the 2025 price performance of Pr-Nd alloy, a key raw material for NdFeB, showed: the average price of Pr-Nd alloy on December 31, 2025 was 735,000 yuan/mt, up 50.31% compared with its average price of 489,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024. The annual daily average price of Pr-Nd alloy in 2025 was 602,181.07 yuan/mt, up 117,476.52 yuan/mt or 24.24% YoY compared with the annual daily average price of 484,704.55 yuan/mt in 2024. A review of the price trend of Pr-Nd alloy in Q1 this year showed: the average price of Pr-Nd alloy on March 31 this year was 880,000 yuan/mt, up 145,000 yuan/mt or 19.73% compared with its average price of 735,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025. The daily average price of Pr-Nd alloy in Q1 this year was 913,035.71 yuan/mt, up 385,018.17 yuan/mt or 72.92% compared with the Q1 2025 daily average price of 528,017.54 yuan/mt. On May 8, the price of Pr-Nd alloy was 925,000–930,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 927,500 yuan/mt, down 0.8% from the previous trading day. Currently, rare earth market prices continue to weaken. Pr-Nd market, downstream purchasing inquiries showed no improvement, and suppliers of oxides maintained a low-price selling strategy to facilitate shipments. However, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices recovered somewhat on the morning of May 8, narrowing the price decline of Pr-Nd oxide. Metal market, constrained by sluggish downstream inquiries, factories showed limited willingness to actively quote, and some suppliers chose to continue lowering their offers. However, as the decline in spot oxide prices narrowed, the actual decline in Pr-Nd alloy prices also narrowed. Nevertheless, downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and the market trading atmosphere did not see effective improvement. In the short term, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways amid the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players.
May 9, 2026 18:27》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM News on May 22: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally declined, with only SHFE lead rising, up 0.48%. SHFE nickel fell 0.7%, SHFE tin dropped 0.48%, and the rest of the metals saw slight declines, with alumina falling 2.01%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell 1.65%, the main polysilicon contract rose 1.09%, the main silicon metal contract increased 0.25%, and the main European container shipping contract surged 2.73%. The ferrous metals series generally declined, with iron ore falling 1.24%, HRC dropping 0.75%, and rebar decreasing 0.42%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 4.01%, and coke dropped 1.81%. In the overseas market, as of 15:03, overseas market base metals generally rose, with only LME copper falling 0.04%. LME lead increased 0.76%, LME tin rose 0.52%, and LME aluminum gained 0.22%, with the rest of the metals seeing slight fluctuations in their increases. In precious metals, as of 15:03, COMEX gold rose 1.04%, and COMEX silver increased 0.35%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.1%, and SHFE silver fell 0.37%. According to Jordan Roy-Byrne, author of CMT, MFTA, and the book "Gold and Silver: The Greatest Bull Market Has Begun," gold is in the early stages of a strong, long-term bull market, with its price potentially rising to $4,500, while silver prices may also exceed $100. Market conditions as of 15:03 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspects: [Ministry of Commerce: Online Sales of Digital Products Increased by 8.4% from January to April, with Smart Robots and Smart Home Systems Rising by 87.6% and 16%] The head of the E-commerce Department of the Ministry of Commerce introduced the development of China's e-commerce from January to April 2025. Digital consumption growth accelerated, with online sales of digital products increasing by 8.4% according to e-commerce big data monitoring, among which smart robots and smart home systems rose by 87.6% and 16%, respectively. Products under the trade-in policy grew rapidly, with online sales of 15 categories of home appliances and digital products increasing by 11.5%, among which three expanded categories of digital products, including mobile phones, rose by 18.5%. Service consumption led the growth, driven by factors such as policy efforts, supply optimization, and holiday economy, with key monitored online service consumption increasing by 12.1%, among which online entertainment and online tourism rose by 31.9% and 25.4%, respectively. [The People's Bank of China Net Injected 36 Billion Yuan in the Open Market] The People's Bank of China conducted 142.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 106.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net injection of 36 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 23 was 7.1919 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell by 0.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17 was 227,000, compared to market expectations of 230,000 and 229,000 the previous week. The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell by 2,000 last week to a four-week low, indicating that the job market remains healthy despite uncertainties brought about by trade policies. However, the number of continuing claims rose, making it increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. The US manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.3 in May. The flash services PMI stood at 52.3, hitting a two-month high. The index for new orders from enterprises rose to 52.4 from 51.7 in April, mainly driven by the manufacturing sector. The index measuring the prices paid by enterprises for inputs rose to 63.4 from 58.5 in April, reaching its highest level since November 2022. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Fed would not purchase bonds in primary auctions, as hard data indicated that the economy was performing quite well and had not yet shown clear signs of tariff impacts. Waller still believed that tariffs would lead to one-time price increases, and said that if tariffs were lowered, the Fed was expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Macro: Today, data such as the revised quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Germany in Q1, the revised year-on-year non-seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Germany in Q1, the month-on-month seasonally adjusted retail sales growth rate for the UK in April, the month-on-month seasonally adjusted core retail sales growth rate for the UK in April, the revised month-on-month building permits growth rate for the US in April, the revised annualized total building permits for the US in April, the month-on-month retail sales growth rate for Canada in March, the month-on-month core retail sales growth rate for Canada in March, and the annualized total of seasonally adjusted new home sales for the US in April will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at a seminar on monetary policy implementation; FOMC voters for 2025, St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Kansas City Fed President Schmid, will participate in a fireside chat in Northwest Arkansas hosted by the St. Louis Fed to discuss the economy and monetary policy. Crude oil: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude oil down by 0.82% and Brent crude oil down by 0.79%. OPEC's production policy moves remain the core variable driving oil price trends. At this stage, OPEC member countries are discussing whether to agree to another round of oversized production increases at the June 1 meeting, which could be the third consecutive month that the organization adds extra oil production to the market. Delegates stated that a 411,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) increase in daily production in July was one of the options under discussion, but no final agreement had been reached. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia indicated that an oil price of $60 per barrel was sustainable. If production is further increased, it could signal a clearer intention by OPEC to compete for market share. At a recent meeting, Saudi Arabia, as the leader of OPEC+, warned non-compliant member countries such as Kazakhstan and Iraq that if they did not adhere to their quotas, Saudi Arabia might further increase production. Despite Kazakhstan's commitment to make some compensatory measures, the country has not taken substantive steps to restrict international oil companies operating within its borders, and its exports remain near record highs. If major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia push for a larger-scale production increase plan, it could trigger a new round of downward pressure on the crude oil market. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Concerns about the continuous decline in LME copper prices prompt import traders to slightly increase shipments [SMM Secondary Copper Daily Review] ► Aluminum prices rebound slightly, and the secondary aluminum market operates steadily [ADC12 Price Daily Review] ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] On May 23, nickel salt prices remained stable ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] On May 23, Indonesian MHP prices slightly declined ► Silver prices consolidate, with downstream cautious and trading remaining light [SMM Daily Review]
May 23, 2025 15:28》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM, May 23: Metal Market: Overnight, most of the domestic base metals market fell, with SHFE tin down 0.59%, SHFE copper down 0.12%, SHFE nickel down 0.48%, SHFE lead down 0.51%, SHFE aluminum down 0.17%, and SHFE zinc up 0.22%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.08%. Overnight, the ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore slightly down, stainless steel slightly up 0.04%, rebar flat at 3,059 yuan/mt, and HRC slightly down. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 1.2%, and coke rose 0.35%. Overnight, LME base metals nearly fell across the board, with LME copper down 0.15%, LME aluminum down 0.61%, LME lead down 0.51%, LME zinc up 0.43%, LME tin down 1.29%, and LME nickel down 0.72%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.56%, and COMEX silver fell 1.39%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.71%, and SHFE silver fell 0.52%. As of 8:22 a.m. on May 23, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [Latest Statements from the Ministry of Science and Technology, the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission Signal Important Developments] At 3 p.m. on the 22nd, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant officials introduced the situation regarding science and technology finance policies and answered questions from reporters. Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the "Science and Technology Board" in the bond market will primarily support top-tier equity investment institutions with strong rankings and rich investment experience in issuing bonds. Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, stated that the Ministry of Science and Technology will fully leverage its role as the leading department, further refine the task assignments for constructing the science and technology finance system, and promote the implementation of policy measures. Guo Wuping, spokesperson for the National Financial Regulatory Administration and Director of the Policy Research Department, stated that the initial pilot scale for the long-term investment reform pilot of insurance funds is 50 billion yuan, the second pilot is 112 billion yuan, and the third pilot of 60 billion yuan will be approved soon, bringing the total scale to 222 billion yuan. Yan Bojin, Chief Risk Officer of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and Director of the Issuance Supervision Department, stated that in response to the characteristics of technology enterprises, the CSRC has streamlined and optimized listing conditions, continuously enhancing the technological content of newly listed companies. The number of listed companies in strategic emerging industries on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges has approached 2,000, with a market capitalization ratio of nearly 40%. 》Click to view details [PBOC: Conducted RMB 500 billion MLF Operation on May 23 with a One-Year Tenor] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, it would conduct a Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation of RMB 500 billion on May 23, 2025 (Friday), with a one-year tenor, through fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering, and multiple-price bidding. US Dollar Aspect: The overnight US dollar index rose by 0.33% to close at 99.94. The US House of Representatives passed President Trump's massive tax and spending cut bill. Bond vigilantes continued to monitor the global bond market, with the US House narrowly passing President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax cut bill by a single vote. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, this would increase federal government debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade. Currently, US government debt stands at $36.2 trillion. US corporate activity rebounded in May, but the US's across-the-board tariffs have made imported goods more expensive for businesses and consumers. The S&P Global US Composite PMI, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 52.1 in May from 50.6 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector. The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell last week, and the labour market remained stable, providing some support to the US dollar. The US weekly report also showed that the number of unemployed Americans was close to the level at the end of 2021. In the week ending May 17, the number of Americans filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000. Economists surveyed had expected 230,000 claims. Other Currencies Aspect: The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, suggesting that economic activity may be stalling again. Bert Colijn, an economist at ING, pointed out that the impact of trade conflicts on the economy is more reflected in uncertainty than in direct shocks. The data only showed a slight decline in new overseas orders, while manufacturing output even increased. The services sector was the main reason for this economic slowdown, having previously been the main driver of Eurozone economic growth. Colijn stated that the Eurozone's economic activity still faces downside risks in the short term, as trade conflicts may further escalate. (Huitong Finance) Data Aspect: Today, data such as the UK's May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Japan's April National CPI Year-on-Year Rate, Japan's April National Core CPI Year-on-Year Rate, Germany's Q1 Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly GDP Growth Rate Revised Value, Germany's Q1 Unadjusted Quarterly GDP Year-on-Year Growth Rate Revised Value, the UK's April Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Retail Sales Growth Rate, the UK's April Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Core Retail Sales Growth Rate, the US's April Monthly Building Permits Growth Rate Revised Value, the US's April Annualized Total Building Permits Revised Value, Canada's March Monthly Retail Sales Growth Rate, Canada's March Monthly Core Retail Sales Growth Rate, and the US's April Annualized Total Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales will be released. In addition, it is noteworthy that: FOMC permanent voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John C. Williams, delivered a keynote speech at the Monetary Policy Implementation Seminar; FOMC voting members for 2025, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Alberto G. Musalem, and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Esther L. George, participated in a fireside chat event in Northwest Arkansas hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to discuss the economy and monetary policy. Crude Oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose slightly, with WTI down 1.23% and Brent down 1.36%. The market is paying attention to reports that OPEC is discussing increasing production in July, which has sparked concerns that global supply growth may outpace demand growth. It is reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, forming the OPEC+ alliance, are discussing whether to significantly increase production again at their meeting on June 1. Delegates attending the meeting said that increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day in July is one of the options under discussion, but no final agreement has been reached. Data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil and refined product inventories last week, causing oil prices to fall during the trading session. The EIA stated that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels in the week ending May 16. Analysts surveyed had previously expected inventories to decrease by 1.3 million barrels. (Webstock Inc.)
May 23, 2025 08:41》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM News on May 22: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, overseas base metals generally declined, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel rising together. SHFE aluminum rose by 0.2%, and SHFE nickel rose by 0.03%. SHFE lead led the losses with a decline of 1.21%, while SHFE tin fell by 0.87%. The main alumina contract rose by 1.01%, recording four consecutive gains. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 1.67%, the main polysilicon contract rose by 1.14%, the main silicon metal contract fell by 0.19%, and the main European container shipping contract fell by 0.95%. The ferrous metals series showed mixed performance. Iron ore led the gains with a rise of 0.14%, stainless steel rose by 0.04%, and HRC rose by 0.09%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.85%, and coke fell by 1.66%. In the overseas market, as of 15:02, only LME aluminum rose, up by 0.4%. The rest of the metals recorded varying degrees of decline, with LME lead falling by 0.91% and LME tin falling by 0.62%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:02, COMEX gold rose by 0.49%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.12%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 1.22%, recording five consecutive gains, and SHFE silver rose by 1.06%. Market conditions as of 15:02 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [State Administration for Market Regulation Seeks Public Comments on Renewal of Old Residential Elevators] According to today's official website news from the State Administration for Market Regulation, in order to thoroughly implement the relevant decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, systematically promote the use of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support the renewal of old residential elevators, and ensure the safety of residents using elevators, the "Notice on Further Improving the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators (Draft for Comments)" has been drafted and is now open for public comments. It mentions that local market regulatory authorities should urge elevator manufacturing units to earnestly fulfill their production responsibilities and provide elevator products with high quality, reasonable prices, and excellent after-sales service for the renewal of old residential elevators. The safety performance indicators of the drive units, control systems, door systems, suspension devices, and deflector sheaves selected by the manufacturing units for the renewed elevators must not be lower than those of the original elevators in use, ensuring sufficient safety margins. [Total Installed Power Generation Capacity Nearly 3.5 Billion kW in the First Four Months of This Year] Statistics released by the National Energy Administration show that as of the end of April, the total installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.49 billion kW, up 15.9% YoY. Among them, the installed power generation capacity for solar energy was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY; the installed capacity for wind power was 540 million kW, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April this year, the total investment in power supply projects by major power generation enterprises nationwide reached 193.3 billion yuan, up 1.6% YoY; the total investment in power grid projects reached 140.8 billion yuan, up 14.6% YoY. [Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau: Supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges] Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau, stated at the "2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum" that Shanghai is further strengthening the functions of its financial markets, supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges, accelerating the construction of a center for RMB financial asset allocation and risk management, and better serving national strategies and safeguarding national security. First, it will continue to deepen the opening up of financial markets and enhance their internationalization. It will deepen the interconnection and interoperability of financial markets and accelerate the launch of international-oriented financial products. Second, it will continue to improve the layout of the derivatives system and expand the breadth and depth of services to the real economy. It will support the further enrichment of commodity and financial futures products, empowering the development of new quality productive forces with a more comprehensive product system. Third, it will enhance the ability to prevent and resolve financial risks and safeguard national strategic security. It will leverage the functions of the futures market to help real enterprises better manage risks and safeguard the security of China's industry and supply chains. It will support financial markets in seizing opportunities in digitalization, intelligence, and green development, enhancing their capabilities for independent and controllable system operations and secure maintenance. (Caijing) [SHFE: Accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy and LNG] Tian Xiangyang, Chairman of SHFE, stated at the 2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum that SHFE will establish a first-class product system that meets the needs of new quality productive forces, accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy, LNG, offset printing paper, and corrugated base paper. It will create a first-class institutional mechanism that combines international standards with Chinese characteristics, steadily promoting portfolio margining, launching new trading instructions, and deepening the market's functions. The People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 64.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 90 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 22 was 7.1903 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:02, the US dollar index fell by 0.01% to 99.6. Increased market concerns over the growing US debt, coupled with weak demand for 20-year US Treasury bonds, highlighted the market's low appetite for US assets. US House Speaker Johnson stated that a vote on a massive tax cut and spending bill could take place as early as Wednesday evening. The US Treasury Department sold $16 billion worth of 20-year bonds on Wednesday, but demand was weak. Investors are concerned that as Congress continues to debate the tax cut bill, the US debt burden will continue to grow. Later this week, several US Fed officials will deliver speeches that may provide further clues about the economy and the central bank's policy path. The market is currently pricing in at least a 50 basis point interest rate cut this year, with the first cut expected in October. Macro Aspects: Today, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for France in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for Germany in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in May, the Germany May IFO Business Climate Index, the preliminary SPGI Services PMI for the UK in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the UK in May, the CBI Industrial Trends Orders in the UK in May, the CFIB Business Barometer in Canada in May, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17, the continued jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 10, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the US in May, and the annualized total of existing home sales in the US in April, among other data, will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting that Thomas Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, will attend an event titled "Fed Listens." The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and relevant officials from the National Administration of Financial Regulation and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will introduce the situation regarding science and technology finance policies and answer questions from reporters. The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting. Crude Oil Aspects: As of 15:02, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US oil down 1.61% and Brent oil down 1.63%. Kazakhstan continues to overproduce, and OPEC+ may adopt a more aggressive production increase strategy to enforce discipline. Kazakhstan has repeatedly exceeded its OPEC+ production quota, with its oil output further increasing by 2% in May to reach 1.86 million barrels per day, far exceeding its quota of 1.486 million barrels per day. This country, which has significantly overproduced, is becoming a headache for cooperation within OPEC+, undermining the credibility of OPEC+'s compensatory production cut agreement. OPEC+ may still consider a more aggressive production increase strategy on June 1 to warn member countries within the organization to strengthen production cut discipline, thereby putting greater supply pressure on the oil market. As Saudi Arabia shifts towards increasing production and demand slows down, the risk of inventory buildup in the oil market is gradually intensifying. According to the IEA's latest monthly report, it is expected that the increase in global crude oil supply in 2025 will far exceed the increase in demand, which is also the mainstream view of the vast majority of research institutions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly raised its forecast for global supply growth in 2025 by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.6 million bpd, primarily due to Saudi Arabia's shift from adhering to production cuts to accelerating production increases. The IEA also sharply lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 from 1.03 million bpd to 730,000 bpd, and further reduced its projection for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 690,000 bpd, citing a global economic slowdown leading to a slowdown in oil product consumption. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 from 1.45 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd. While the organization remains more optimistic from a seller's perspective, it has to admit that the demand outlook is deteriorating. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] May 22: Indonesian MHP prices slightly decline ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] May 22: Nickel salt prices remain stable
May 22, 2025 15:22》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM, May 22: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally fell. SHFE tin dropped 0.67%, SHFE zinc fell 0.6%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.27%, and SHFE nickel increased slightly. SHFE lead fell 0.83%, and SHFE copper dropped 0.14%. In addition, alumina rose 1.48%. Lithium carbonate increased 0.56%, silicon metal fell 0.25%, and polysilicon dropped 0.55%. The ferrous metals series mostly fell, with iron ore increasing slightly and HRC rising 0.22%. Stainless steel and rebar fell slightly, with declines both within 0.1%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 1.19%, and coke dropped 1.09%. In overseas metal markets, as of 11:42 a.m., LME metals generally fell. LME copper rose 0.18%, LME aluminum increased 0.59%, LME zinc and LME nickel fell slightly, LME tin dropped 0.32%, and LME lead fell 0.43%. In precious metals, as of 11:42 a.m., COMEX gold rose 0.81%, and COMEX silver increased 0.4%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.72%, and SHFE silver increased 1.4%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European Containerized Freight Index fell 3.55%, closing at 2148.1 points. As of 11:42 a.m. on May 22, midday futures market movements for some metals: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 22 Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: Inventory: According to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, as of May 22, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 557,000 mt, a destocking of 28,000 mt from Monday. In the short term, the lower arrival of aluminum in east China is conducive to the rise in premiums and discounts. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in demand... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [SAMR Publicly Solicits Opinions on the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators] According to today's official website news of the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), in order to thoroughly implement the relevant decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, orderly promote the use of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support the renewal of old residential elevators, and ensure the safety of residents using elevators, the SAMR has drafted the "Notice on Further Improving the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators (Draft for Public Comments)" and is now publicly soliciting opinions from society. It mentions that local market regulation departments should urge elevator manufacturing units to earnestly fulfill their production responsibilities and provide elevator products with high quality, reasonable prices, and excellent after-sales service for the renewal of old residential elevators. The safety performance indicators of drive units, control systems, door systems, suspension devices, and deflector sheaves selected by manufacturing units for the renewed elevators must not be lower than those of the original elevators in use, ensuring sufficient safety margins. [China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached nearly 3.5 billion kW in the first four months of this year] According to statistics released by the National Energy Administration, as of the month-end of April, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.49 billion kW, up 15.9% YoY. Among this, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY, and the installed capacity of wind power was 540 million kW, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April this year, China's major power generation enterprises completed investments of 193.3 billion yuan in power supply projects, up 1.6% YoY, and investments of 140.8 billion yuan in power grid projects, up 14.6% YoY. [Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau: Supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges] Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau, stated at the "2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum" that Shanghai is further strengthening the functions of its financial markets, supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges, accelerating the construction of a center for the allocation and risk management of RMB financial assets, and better serving national strategies and safeguarding national security. First, it will continue to deepen the opening up of financial markets and enhance their internationalization. It will deepen the interconnection and interoperability of financial markets and accelerate the launch of international-oriented financial products. Second, it will continue to improve the layout of the derivatives system and expand the breadth and depth of services to the real economy. It will support the further enrichment of commodity and financial futures products, empowering the development of new quality productive forces with a more comprehensive product system. Third, it will enhance the ability to prevent and resolve financial risks and safeguard national strategic security. It will leverage the functions of the futures market to help real enterprises better manage risks and safeguard the security of China's industry and supply chains. It will support financial markets in seizing opportunities in digitalization, intelligence, and green development, enhancing their capabilities for autonomous control, secure operation, and maintenance. (Caijing) [SHFE: Accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy and LNG] Tian Xiangyang, Chairman of SHFE, stated at the 2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum that SHFE will improve a first-class product system tailored to the needs of new quality productive forces, accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy, LNG, offset printing paper, and corrugated base paper. It will establish a first-class institutional mechanism that combines international standards with Chinese characteristics, steadily advancing the implementation of portfolio margins, introducing new trading instructions, and deepening the market's functions. The People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 64.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 90 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1903 RMB per US dollar on May 22 US dollar: The US dollar index continued its downward trend from the previous three trading sessions, remaining in the doldrums. As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell by 0.1% to 99.51. Mounting concerns over the US's ever-increasing debt, coupled with weak demand for 20-year US Treasury bonds, underscore the market's low appetite for US assets. US House Speaker Johnson stated that a vote on a massive tax cut and spending bill could take place as early as Wednesday evening. The US Treasury Department sold $16 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday, but demand was sluggish. Investors are worried that as Congress continues to debate the tax cut bill, the US's debt burden will continue to grow. Later this week, several US Fed officials are scheduled to speak, potentially offering further clues about the economic outlook and the central bank's policy path. The market is currently pricing in at least a 50 basis point interest rate cut this year, with the first cut expected in October. In other currency news: Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Board Member Asahi Noguchi said that the BOJ should not preset a terminal interest rate during the process of raising interest rates; instead, it should take time to assess the impact of each rate hike on the economy, carefully review the associated risks, and then consider the next rate increase. In his view, there is no need to make significant adjustments to the existing central bank's tapering plan. (Caijing) On the macro front: Today, the following data will be released: flash France May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, flash Germany May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, flash Eurozone May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Germany May IFO Business Climate Index, flash UK May S&P Global Services PMI, flash UK May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, UK May CBI Industrial Trends Orders, Canada May CFIB Business Barometer, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17, US continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 10, flash US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and US existing home sales annualized total for April. In addition, it is worth noting that: Thomas Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, will attend an event titled "Fed Listens"; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and relevant officials from the National Financial Regulatory Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will introduce the relevant situation of science and technology finance policies and answer questions from reporters; and the European Central Bank (ECB) will publish the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting. In the crude oil market: As of 11:42, crude oil futures fluctuated rangebound. US crude oil was flat at $61.57 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.05%. Oil prices came under pressure due to unexpected increases in US crude oil and fuel inventories, raising demand concerns. Additionally, the market remained cautious, keeping an eye on the resumed negotiations between Iran and the US. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil and fuel inventories rose unexpectedly last week, as crude oil imports hit a six-week high and gasoline and distillate demand declined. In the week ending May 16, US crude oil inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventory rose by 816,000 barrels to 225.5 million barrels. Distillate inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 104.1 million barrels. Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, said, "Although the increase in US inventory has raised concerns, some investors expect that the summer driving season will arrive after the Memorial Day weekend, which is expected to destock inventory and limit further downside room for oil prices." (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► Suppliers' sentiment to sell off inventory is evident, with the premium center continuing to move lower [SMM Shanghai spot copper] ► Both inventory and copper prices are declining, with suppliers refusing to budge on prices while selling [SMM South China spot copper] ► The aftermath of the trade war lingers, with China's secondary copper import structure accelerating its reconfiguration [SMM Analysis] ► Destocking in east China exceeds expectations, with suppliers showing strong willingness to refuse to budge on prices [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review] ► [SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices changed relatively little on May 22, with the 20-year US Treasury auction being the worst in five years Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated later. Please refresh to view~
May 22, 2025 11:58