President Hakainde Hichilema’s re-election provides greater policy continuity for Zambia’s mining sector, but the focus is now shifting from investment commitments and macroeconomic stabilisation toward whether the country can translate its expanding copper project pipeline into sustained production growth.​ Official results confirmed Hichilema’s second-term victory on August 18, with around 60% of the vote. For mining investors, the result reduces uncertainty around the policy direction that has underpinned Zambia’s recent push to attract capital into copper and other strategic minerals.​ Zambia is targeting annual copper production of 3 million tonnes by 2031, nearly triple current output levels. The strategy depends on a combination of brownfield expansions, new mine developments and continued exploration, making execution over the next several years critical to determining whether the target can be achieved.​ The main constraint is increasingly infrastructure rather than geological potential. Mining companies have highlighted electricity availability as one of the most important risks to future production growth, with industry estimates indicating that roughly 2,000 MW of additional power capacity will be required to support the planned expansion of the mining sector.​ Climate risk adds further complexity. Zambia’s heavy dependence on hydropower leaves the system exposed to weak rainfall and reservoir inflows, while the developing 2026–27 El Niño raises the possibility of renewed pressure on electricity supply. Reuters notes that previous drought-related shortages constrained mining activity and remain an important risk to the country’s copper-growth outlook.​ From a copper-market perspective, Hichilema’s second term therefore represents a transition from policy continuity to delivery. Zambia has attracted renewed mining investment and built a substantial project pipeline, but reaching the 3 million-tonne target will depend on whether new mines and expansions can be brought online alongside sufficient power, infrastructure and financing.​The next phase of Zambia’s copper story will therefore be measured less by announced investment and more by actual tonnes produced.

After hitting the daily limit on August 5, Baowu Magnesium’s share price pulled back over the past two trading days. As of around 10:55 a.m. on August 7, the stock was up 2.74%, trading at 11.26 yuan per share. On the news front, Baowu Magnesium’s investor relations activity record dated August 4, 2026 shows: Question: What are Baowu Magnesium’s main businesses? Baowu Magnesium responded: The company’s businesses include magnesium materials, magnesium products, aluminum products, mineral products, and building formwork. Its main products include magnesium alloys, magnesium alloy deep-processed products, aluminum alloys, aluminum alloy deep-processed products, master alloys, and strontium metal. Question: Could you introduce the company’s ore resources? Baowu Magnesium responded: The company’s subsidiary Chaohu Baomei holds 90 million mt of dolomite ore reserves and is in active mining operation; subsidiary Wutai Baomei holds 580 million mt of dolomite ore reserves; and associate company Anhui Baomei holds 1.3 billion mt of dolomite ore reserves. The subsidiary Gansu Mining under Gansu Baomei holds 14.91 million mt of available quartzite ore reserves. Question: How was China’s magnesium product production in H1 2026? Baowu Magnesium responded: In H1 2026, China’s primary magnesium production was approximately 603,100 mt, up 26.49% YoY. China exported approximately 239,100 mt of various magnesium products, up 7.95% YoY. Question: How does the company promote magnesium metal? Baowu Magnesium responded: Relying on its full magnesium industry chain, the company focuses on lightweighting and high-end manufacturing, seizes the rapid growth opportunity of magnesium applications in lightweighting, and will focus on the following points: 1. Full-chain guarantee: With an integrated industry chain covering ore mining, magnesium smelting, alloys, and deep processing, we ensure a stable magnesium supply to support large-scale applications across sectors. 2. Technology leadership: Leveraging our technological strengths, we collaborate with universities, research institutes, and clients on R&D for new magnesium alloys, and break through key technologies such as large-scale integrated die casting and magnesium alloy corrosion resistance and flame retardancy. 3. Application expansion: Guided by high-end, green and intelligent development, we focus on automotive, robotics, aerospace and other fields, and provide integrated services covering materials, components, and solutions. Question: What is the pace of design wins and mass production of magnesium alloy die castings in the NEV sector? Baowu Magnesium responded: The company has concentrated superior technical resources to continue deepening its presence in mid-to-large magnesium casting businesses such as drive motors, instrument panel cross car beams, seat frames, and integrated auto body structural components. In the cross car beam area, we focused on breaking through with leading automakers, securing design wins for multiple hot-model cross car beams, and during this period launched the world’s first “semi-solid process CCB.” In drive motors, we are orderly advancing customer mass production deliveries, actively conducting aluminum-to-magnesium feasibility studies with industry-leading suppliers, and have achieved major breakthroughs in both rare earth alloy R&D and process optimization. Meanwhile, "magnesium alloy auto body integrated castings" became a hot topic in magnesium applications most concerned by NEV manufacturers in 2025. After successfully passing the whole-vehicle road test for a certain automaker's tailgate inner panel, one-stage sample trial production of magnesium components was subsequently completed, contributing substantial verification and testing data for industry technology iteration and further boosting NEV manufacturers' confidence in large magnesium part applications. Under this favorable situation, the company gradually established in-depth R&D cooperation with some leading automakers. In terms of performance: Baowu Magnesium's semi-annual performance forecast showed it expected a net loss of RMB14-20 million in H1. Regarding the reasons for the performance change, Baowu Magnesium stated: Due to a slight YoY increase in magnesium prices, the profitability of the company's magnesium materials segment was basically stable YoY. The main reasons for the YoY decline in the company's H1 performance include: due to aluminum price fluctuations and lower sales volume of aluminum products compared to the same period last year, the aluminum products business saw a decline in profitability; the newly built ferrosilicon project of subsidiary Gansu Baowu Magnesium was just commissioned in May, with consumption indicators not yet stable, leading to relatively high product costs; the company's associate company Anhui Baowu Magnesium was still in the capacity ramp-up stage, with crude magnesium and alloy production significantly higher YoY, and various production technical indicators gradually optimized, but the products remained loss-making, impacting the company's investment income YoY; and due to the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and euro, the company's foreign exchange losses on export business increased YoY, etc. On July 14, Baowu Magnesium issued an announcement on daily related-party transactions. Due to daily production and operation needs, the company and its controlled subsidiaries plan to conduct daily related-party transactions in 2026 with related parties including the controlling shareholder Baosteel Metal and its affiliates, other Baowu second-level subsidiaries and their affiliates, and the associate company Yi'an Yunhai. The types of related-party transactions include purchasing products and goods from related parties, accepting operational services from related parties, selling products and goods to related parties, providing operational services to related parties, providing and financial services (including deposits and loans, factoring, discounting, foreign exchange settlement and sales, etc.). The total estimated amount of daily related-party transactions (excluding financial services) in 2026 is RMB1.28 billion; in addition, the estimated amount of financial related-party transactions with Baowu Group Finance Co., Ltd. has not been adjusted, and the relevant quotas are already included in the overall arrangement. These related-party transactions strictly follow market-based fair pricing principles, with fair and reasonable transaction terms, which are conducive to ensuring the company's sustained and stable operations, will not harm the lawful rights and interests of the publicly listed company and minority shareholders, nor affect the company's operational independence. When asked "Hello, board secretary, could you tell me whether your company can stably mass-produce semiconductor-grade ultra-high-purity magnesium metal ingots as found online, and is the only publicly listed company? Also, what is the proportion of your sales in this area to the company's total sales over the past few years?" Baowu Magnesium responded on the investor interaction platform on June 23: The company's business includes magnesium materials, magnesium products, aluminum products, mineral products, and building formwork. The company's main products include magnesium alloys, magnesium alloy deep-processed products, aluminum alloys, aluminum alloy deep-processed products, master alloys, and strontium metal. Please refer to the 2025 annual report for the proportion of revenue by product segment. Regarding the specific products and sales proportion you mentioned, the company has not publicly disclosed such information; please refer to the company's official periodic reports or announcements. In response to the questions: "1. Regarding the Anhui Qingyang project, what is the mine commissioning progress, and what is the current approximate ore output of the mine? 2. What are the advantages of the company's vertical retort magnesium smelting technology? How does it compare with peers in Fugu?" Baowu Magnesium replied on the investor interaction platform on June 17: The company adopts the vertical retort magnesium smelting process, which has outstanding technical advantages: increased per-retort capacity, shortened production cycle, improved production efficiency, extended service life of reduction retorts, and a higher level of mechanized and automated operations. The Anhui Qingyang mine project has achieved a capacity of 20 million mt per year. Regarding the main business engaged in during the reporting period, Baowu Magnesium introduced in its 2025 annual report: The company is the leader in magnesium-based new materials under China Baowu, possessing the advantages of the entire industry chain and mine resources, leading vertical retort magnesium smelting technology, and its magnesium alloy capacity and market share rank among the top globally. The company focuses on lightweight materials, with products covering automobiles, household consumer electronics, e-bikes, building formwork, and other fields. After more than 30 years of development, the company has become a high-tech enterprise integrating mining, non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, committed to becoming a global leader in the magnesium industry. The company's business includes magnesium materials, magnesium products, aluminum products, mineral products, and building formwork. Its main products include magnesium alloys, magnesium alloy deep-processed products, aluminum alloys, aluminum alloy deep-processed products, master alloys, and strontium metal. For the company's future development outlook, Baowu Magnesium stated in its 2025 annual report: 2026 marks the starting year of the company's 15th Five-Year Plan, and the industry will usher in an important period of opportunity for high-end and large-scale development. The company's board of directors will lead the management to, with "building a lightweight solution provider and becoming a mainstay of China Baowu's new materials" as the core positioning, focus on the main business, deepen and refine operations, promote the upgrading of the entire industry chain, technological innovation, market expansion, and green development, achieving sustained improvement in operating performance and significant enhancement of core competitiveness. 1. Strengthen strategic guidance, consolidate the foundation for magnesium industry new quality productive forces. Accelerate the construction of a development pattern for the entire industry chain covering primary magnesium—alloys—deep processing—end-use applications, focus on tackling key technologies in green smelting and stable production with cost reduction, and accelerate large-scale promotion of key products. 2. Coordinate key project construction, synergistically enhance overall operational efficiency. Accelerate the construction and comprehensive acceptance of the Huayuan Wu's Mine in the Qingyang project, orderly promote the construction of the main plant area and optimization of production indicators, and orderly advance key projects of Gansu Baowu Magnesium, Wutai Baowu Magnesium, and Chaohu Baowu Magnesium. 3. Deepen magnesium industry reform and innovation, promote the modernization of corporate governance systems. Steadily promote business development transformation and innovation, advance asset integration, and further optimize governance and control as well as business management models. 4. Accelerate the layout of smart development, comprehensively advance the construction of information systems. Complete full coverage of the Baowu standard financial system and the update and launch of the cost systems of subsidiaries, build a full-process informatization model project for magnesium business, and further enhance Baowu Magnesium's capabilities in operation management, cost-based management, compliance operation, and risk prevention and control. 5. Focus on reducing primary magnesium costs, continuously enhance market competitiveness. Reduce manufacturing costs of the three core components—reduction retorts, center tubes, and cones—optimize steel grades to extend the service life of reduction retorts, lower auxiliary energy consumption and the material-to-magnesium ratio. 6. Implement cost-based management, systematically build a high-quality development operating model. Deepen comprehensive benchmarking to identify gaps, systematically tackle the "four major costs" of primary magnesium, energy, logistics, and quality, and improve the operation management and control system. 7. Strengthen safety and environmental protection fortifications, systematically enhance green development levels. Continuously strengthen safety and environmental compliance rectification, highlight risk control and inherent safety improvement in key areas, and accelerate the construction of green factories and low-carbon capacity building. 8. Major risk factors and countermeasures the company faces (1) Risk of fluctuations in main raw material prices The company's main business involves magnesium, aluminum alloys and deep processing, with main raw materials being magnesium and aluminum metals. Magnesium and aluminum prices are affected by supply-demand dynamics, global and Chinese economic conditions, and are closely related to factors such as the progress of automotive lightweighting and demand from the 3C industry. If future magnesium and aluminum prices experience wild swings, it will have a certain impact on the company's cost control and profitability. The company is increasing the self-supply ratio of raw materials, adjusting product mix, and increasing the proportion of deep-processed products to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations. (2) Risk of market demand fluctuations The company's magnesium and aluminum lightweight alloy products are mainly used in automobiles, consumer electronics, and other fields. At present, seizing the opportunity of automotive lightweighting development, while stabilizing the supply of magnesium and aluminum alloy base materials, the company is focusing on expanding downstream deep-processing businesses such as magnesium alloy automotive die-casting parts, magnesium alloy building formwork, and aluminum alloy extrusion products. Market demand in areas such as automotive lightweighting progress and 3C electronics consumption is influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomics, industrial policies, and process technology innovation. If downstream market demand falls short of expectations, it will affect the company's operating performance level. The company is expanding the application of its products in various fields, increasing the penetration rate of products in various application fields, to reduce the risk of market demand fluctuations. Looking back at the Chinese magnesium market in H1 2026, affected by the concentrated production stoppages at magnesium plants earlier, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand was quietly reversed. Tight spot supply and low inventory provided a good foundation for a phased rise in the magnesium ingot market fundamentals. Coupled with market disturbances such as the explosive demand for magnesium alloys, speculative demand surged, and market purchasing enthusiasm ran high. Magnesium prices showed a staircase-like increase in Q1. Overly high expectations boosted magnesium plants' production enthusiasm, and magnesium production climbed all the way. By June 2026, China's primary magnesium production exceeded 110,000 mt. The persistently rising production increased sales pressure on magnesium plants. As both inventory and production grew, magnesium prices trended downward in a staircase-like manner in Q2, and overall magnesium prices in H1 showed an inverted V-shaped trajectory. From the price performance of 99.90% magnesium ingot (Fugu, Shenmu) in H1 this year, it can be seen: the average price of 99.90% magnesium ingot (Fugu, Shenmu) on June 30, 2026 was 15,850 yuan/mt, compared to its average price of 17,950 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025, its average price fell by 2,100 yuan/mt in H1, a decline of 11.7%. Its daily average price in H1 was 16,607.33 yuan/mt, compared to its daily average price of 16,241.45 yuan/mt in H1 2025, its daily average price increased by 365.88 yuan/mt YoY, an increase of 2.25%. According to SMM quotes, the price of 99.90% magnesium ingot (Fugu, Shenmu) on August 7 was 15,850-15,950 yuan/mt, with an average price of 15,900 yuan/mt, up 0.32% from the previous trading day. Low-priced supply in the market tightened, and magnesium prices edged up slightly. On the supply side, affected by rising coal costs and sustained losses, producers had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, but some sources still offered small discounts, leading to a divergence in selling attitudes. On the demand side, downstream users and traders maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with weak restocking willingness, making only small-scale just-in-time procurement, and market trading was sluggish. Cost support limited the downside room, but production cuts have not yet effectively promoted inventory destocking, and social inventory pressure remained. In the short term, magnesium prices lack upward momentum and face downside limitations, likely to continue moving sideways. Subsequent attention should be paid to the downstream recovery pace and restocking signals.

August 3, 2026 The precious metals markets remained highly volatile over the past several days while continuing to trade within what has ultimately been a relatively narrow range. Gold began the week with an upside gap and rallied to US$4,116, only to retreat to US$3,996 shortly before yesterday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Following the announcement, prices rebounded back to US$4,116 within hours before coming under renewed pressure late in the session and during early Asian trading, falling to US$4,042 and US$4,028, respectively. Overall, however, little has changed compared to last week's close of US$4,054. Silver traded within a range of US$56.62 to US$60.09 over the same period. Both metals remain locked in an uncertain sideways consolidation as they continue searching for a clear bottom and a decisive trend reversal. Two Time Horizons, One Market The precious metals market continues to be influenced by two very different time horizons. On one hand, a structural demand story unfolding over many years—driven largely by China—continues to provide strong fundamental support for gold. On the other hand, Federal Reserve policy, bond market developments, corrections in technology and semiconductor stocks, and the escalating conflict with Iran continue to generate short-term shocks that affect not only gold and silver but virtually every financial market sector. The Fed Holds Steady While the Market Tightens Financial Conditions This tension between long-term fundamentals and short-term volatility was highlighted once again by the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting. More noteworthy than the decision itself, however, was the reaction in the bond market. While two-year Treasury yields declined, the 30-year Treasury yield surged to approximately 5.21%, its highest level in nearly two decades. Fed Chair Warsh deliberately avoided providing forward guidance, instead pointing to the increases already taking place across the yield curve. The result is an unusual situation: although the Fed has left its policy rate unchanged, the bond market is effectively tightening monetary conditions on its own through rising long-term yields. Real Yields Versus Currency Debasement For gold and silver, this environment creates conflicting forces. Rising long-term real interest rates traditionally weigh on precious metals, while declining confidence in long-duration government bonds and growing concerns about fiscal deficits and currency debasement strengthen gold's appeal as an alternative store of value. Geopolitics Continues to Fuel Inflation Concerns The already complicated picture has been further intensified by the military escalation between the United States and Iran. Following Iranian missile attacks on U.S. positions, CENTCOM responded with strikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets. Brent crude oil briefly climbed above US$94 per barrel amid concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments normally pass. Higher energy prices continue to increase inflationary pressures worldwide, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's cautious approach toward monetary policy. Selling Pressure from Financially Stressed Holders While geopolitical risks continue to support inflation concerns, they have also created selling pressure in the gold market. Financially strained Gulf states and countries such as Turkey have reportedly sold portions of their gold reserves to stabilize their currencies. These transactions temporarily increase supply but do not alter the longer-term demand trend. Instead, they represent a transfer of gold from weaker holders to long-term strategic buyers, particularly in Asia. China's Strategic Gold Accumulation Remains the Dominant Long-Term Story Zentralbank-Goldreserven China vs USA, vom 27. Juli 2026. © BMO, Gold.de The recent market turbulence has overshadowed what remains the dominant long-term narrative: China's systematic accumulation of gold. According to a recent BMO analysis, China has accumulated approximately 29,500 tonnes of above-ground gold since 1949, compared with an estimated 32,200 tonnes held by the United States. Remarkably, 93% of China's total gold accumulation has occurred during the past 25 years. The People's Bank of China officially reports gold reserves of around 2,300 tonnes, but discrepancies between reported central bank purchases and actual gold flows from the United Kingdom and Switzerland since 2022 suggest China's true holdings could be closer to 5,200 tonnes. Two Targets, One Timeline Based on these estimates, BMO outlines two potential milestones. China would require approximately 2,911 additional tonnes to match U.S. official central bank reserves, a target that could be reached in roughly five years at the current pace of purchases. To match total U.S. above-ground gold holdings, China would need only around 2,700 tonnes, a level that could potentially be reached in as little as two years. Shanghai and Hong Kong Are Emerging as a New Pricing Hub Globale Gold Handelsplätze, vom 27. Juli 2026. © BMO, Gold.de At the same time, China continues expanding the Shanghai Gold Exchange while strengthening Hong Kong as an offshore gold trading center through new clearing systems, the Delivery Connect program, and the reintroduction of U.S. dollar-denominated gold futures. Together, these initiatives are creating a second global pricing hub alongside the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and New York's COMEX, while supporting the broader internationalization of the renminbi. Gold Remains Resilient Despite Strong Headwinds Despite the challenging macroeconomic backdrop, gold has shown remarkable resilience. The actively traded August futures contract gained 0.91% yesterday to close at US$4,065.50 , a respectable performance considering both the geopolitical escalation and the Federal Reserve meeting. BMO continues to forecast additional upside during the second half of 2026, targeting approximately US$4,750 by the fourth quarter once inflation concerns related to the conflict begin to ease. The Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August is widely viewed as the next major catalyst. Silver Caught Between Conflicting Forces Silver currently finds itself in a particularly difficult position. Historically, silver follows gold's direction, often with considerably higher beta. If gold successfully maintains support around US$4,000 and resumes its recovery, silver could potentially deliver even stronger gains. Unlike gold, however, silver lacks one critical pillar of the China investment thesis: there is no structural central bank demand providing long-term support. Instead, silver remains much more dependent on two other factors—the direction of real interest rates and industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector, which has remained relatively resilient despite inflationary pressures and higher energy costs. Silver Forms a Potential Wedge Pattern Silber in US-Dollar, Tageschart vom 17. Juli 2026. © Gold.de Since late June, silver has been attempting to establish a slow, narrow and rather confusing bottoming formation. Prices remain well below both the declining 50-day moving average at US$63.99 and the relatively flat 200-day moving average at US$70.71. At the same time, bears have repeatedly tested the broad support zone between US$55 and US$60 without achieving any meaningful downside follow-through, leaving a potentially bullish wedge pattern intact. Daily stochastic indicators have yet to generate meaningful upside momentum and continue to drift sideways, reflecting the fading media attention toward precious metals and the typically quieter summer trading environment. Nevertheless, prospects for a recovery remain favorable. Seasonally, silver has historically performed well between late June and early September, making a return toward the rapidly declining 50-day moving average appear entirely plausible later this summer. Given the growing number of bearish forecasts calling for gold to fall toward US$3,500, the market could just as easily remember that precious metals remain within a long-term secular bull market. Only six months ago, gold and silver had outperformed nearly every other asset class. A sudden shift in market sentiment could therefore transform the current setup into what many investors would view as an attractive "buy-the-dip" opportunity. Conclusion: Silver's Bottoming Process Remains Complicated The precious metals sector continues to move through a complex period in which long-term structural trends are colliding with short-term macroeconomic shocks. While gold remains fundamentally supported by China's ongoing accumulation strategy and growing concerns about currency debasement, rising long-term real yields, the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, weakness in technology stocks, and escalating geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on near-term price action. Silver, meanwhile, remains trapped between US$56 and US$60, searching for a decisive trend reversal. Seasonal patterns and the emerging wedge formation continue to support the case for a recovery later this summer. The central investment thesis for the second half of the year remains unchanged. Once inflation concerns related to the geopolitical conflict begin to ease and interest-rate uncertainty subsides, gold could resume its advance. Given silver's historically higher beta, it would likely outperform during such a move. Unlike gold, however, silver lacks the powerful structural support provided by central bank buying and therefore remains more dependent on industrial demand—particularly from the solar sector—and on the direction of real interest rates. Overall, the current consolidation can still be viewed as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity within an ongoing secular bull market, although investors continue to await more convincing technical confirmation, such as a sustained move back above silver's 50-day moving average. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-a-complex-bottoming-process-continues

LME nickel prices strengthened in July, rising from US$16,175/mt on July 1 to a monthly high of US$17,205/mt on July 24, before easing to US$16,860/mt on July 28. Despite the late-month pullback, prices remained approximately 4.2% higher than at the start of July. The price rally was mainly supported by improving macroeconomic sentiment, as expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes weakened, boosting risk asset performance and pressuring the US dollar. In addition, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over potential supply risks for Middle East sulphur, while expectations of tighter nickel ore supply from Indonesia provided further support to the market. Meanwhile, LME nickel inventories continued to decline through most of July, falling from 274,230 mt on July 1 to 267,522 mt on July 28, a net reduction of 6,708 mt. Although inventories saw a slight rebound toward the end of the month, stock levels remained below early-July levels, reinforcing a more supportive market sentiment.

July 9, 2026 Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, gold is losing its lustre as a safe haven for the time being. Rather than benefiting from the renewed tensions between the US and Iran, precious metals remain in the stranglehold of macroeconomic factors: A sharp rise in oil prices, climbing US yields and a strengthening dollar are dominating market activity, pushing spot gold down to around US$4,074 per ounce, whilst silver slips to around US$58.12. Macroeconomics trumps geopolitics Even following the weak US labour market report for June, which briefly fuelled hopes of a more accommodative monetary policy, the outlook for precious metals looked positive. However, this positive effect quickly faded with the publication of the latest Fed minutes , which underline the US Federal Reserve’s continued focus on persistent inflation. At the same time, the military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is driving massive market volatility. Following clashes between the US and Iran, oil prices surged sharply, with WTI and Brent initially soaring by around six per cent to US$74.93 (WTI) and US$78.73 (Brent) per barrel respectively. However, this crisis situation did not trigger a flight-to-safety reaction for the price of gold. Rather, the surge in oil prices fuelled fresh inflation fears and expectations of higher interest rates in the longer term. As a result, the yield on ten-year US government bonds climbed to over 4.58 per cent, pushing the dollar index to its highest level since early July. Silver was hit even harder, as concerns over the industrial economy put further downward pressure on its price and widened the gap with gold even further. Key technical levels in focus Due to these economic headwinds, the bears have taken the upper hand in the short term. Spot gold hit a five-day low of US$4,022 and failed in its attempt to reclaim the 20-day moving average. On the downside, a break below the US$4,041.65 level is now seen as the next negative signal, which could pave the way towards US$3,942.10 and US$3,886.46. For a noticeable improvement in the chart picture, prices would first need to break through the resistance zone between US$4,162.36 and US$4,214.34 in order to target the 50-day moving average at US$4,372.44. Technical weakness is also weighing on sentiment for silver. The market recently tested the key support zone between US$59.44 and US$58.53. If this level gives way, there is a risk of further declines down to the region around US$55.60 or even US$50.00. Only a return above US$63.28 would unlock new potential and once again make the moving averages beyond the US$70 mark realistic targets. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/current-gold-and-silver-prices-rising-interest-rates-and-the-us-dollar-are-holding-back-precious

In H1 2026, Shanghai aluminum prices followed a high-first-then-low trajectory. In Q1, a mix of market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove aluminum prices to multi-year highs. Entering Q2, confirmation of the US strong-dollar policy stance, easing supply disruptions in the Middle East, and a seasonal lull in domestic downstream consumption combined to push the aluminum price center downward continuously. Looking ahead to H2, persistent strong US dollar sentiment and overseas liquidity concerns will cap non-ferrous metal valuations. On the supply side, elevated aluminum prices have incentivized higher production releases; domestic operating capacity is projected to rise month-on-month, while newly commissioned capacity in the Middle East and Indonesia will ramp up output gradually. On the demand side, domestic consumption recovery is set to remain modest. Existing export order backlogs will still prop up aluminum semi-finished product shipments, yet market expectations for new export orders have softened. All told, Shanghai aluminum’s price center is likely to slide further in H2, delivering a full-year high-first-then-low price pattern. 1. H1 2026 Shanghai Aluminum Price Review by Stage 1.1 Q1: Macroeconomics & Geopolitics Dominate, Aluminum Prices Surge Then Consolidate Shanghai aluminum prices in Q1 2026 were primarily dictated by macro sentiment and overseas supply disruptions, with seasonally weak fundamentals taking a backseat. January: Rate Cut Expectations & Capital Inflows Fuel Price Rally Fundamentals: A seasonal lull ahead of the Lunar New Year created demand weakness, leading to a continuous build-up of social aluminum ingot inventories. By late January, SMM-tracked social inventories hit 782,000 tonnes, the highest level for the period in three years. Sustained high aluminum margins squeezed profit margins for downstream processors, dampening their willingness to operate and curbing primary aluminum purchasing activity. Macroeconomics: Markets priced in an impending Fed rate-cut cycle, sending the US Dollar Index sharply lower and drawing heavy speculative capital into commodity futures. Complementary pro-consumption policies rolled out domestically further underpinned aluminum prices. SMM’s average A00 aluminum price stood at RMB 24,086/tonne in January, the highest monthly average in H1. February: Cooling Rate-Cut Hopes Trigger Range-Bound Weakness Fundamentals: Lunar New Year holidays triggered a sharp collapse in downstream procurement, while smelters ramped up ingot casting, pushing social inventories even higher. Post-holiday SMM social inventories climbed to 1.108 million tonnes, with bloated stock levels failing to provide upward price support. Macroeconomics: Dimming Fed rate-cut bets lifted the US Dollar Index, prompting profit-taking liquidation that dragged aluminum prices lower and locked the market into weak consolidation. The average SMM A00 aluminum price retreated to RMB 23,385/tonne in February, down roughly RMB 700 month-on-month. March: Alternating Middle East Supply Risks & Demand Drags Intensify Volatility March trading centered on alternating forces of Middle East supply disruptions and demand-side headwinds, amplifying long-short volatility and driving aluminum prices through a pattern of rally-correction-rebound. Supply-side developments saw widespread overseas production curtailments: Mozal entered maintenance; Qatalum maintained a 60% operating rate and ruled out further output reductions; Alba shut down Lines 1, 2 and 3 with additional cutbacks rumoured; major damage to EGA facilities stoked fears of large-scale production suspensions. SMM estimates tally nearly 4 million tonnes of overseas primary aluminum capacity subject to cuts, including Mozambique’s smelter. Worries over contracting overseas supply became the core catalyst for periodic price rallies. Geopolitical risks: Escalating conflict in the Middle East raised widespread market concerns over shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, embedding persistent geopolitical risk premiums into aluminum valuations. Demand-side headwinds: Mounting stagflation fears lifted risk aversion; lofty aluminum prices deterred downstream buying, while surging energy and freight costs crushed processor profitability and restrained demand recovery. SMM’s average A00 aluminum price rebounded to RMB 24,386/tonne in March, the second-highest monthly average in H1, alongside markedly wider price swings. 1.2 Q2: Expanding Supply & Marginal Demand Weakness Push Price Center Lower In Q2, high aluminum prices lifted domestic capacity utilization, while the market gradually priced in the impacts of overseas smelter cutbacks, shifting focus back to domestic fundamentals. Shanghai aluminum’s average price fell from roughly RMB 24,665/tonne in April to RMB 23,769/tonne in June, with prices dipping to an intra-year low of RMB 22,665/tonne in late June. Supply side: Strong prices encouraged primary aluminum smelters to boost operating rates and lift domestic output. The market gradually absorbed the impact of cutbacks in Mozambique and the Middle East, weakening the Shanghai-LME aluminum price ratio. Between June and July, rumours circulated that curtailed Middle East capacity would resume production, coupled with sequential commissioning of new Indonesian smelters, amplifying expectations of rising overseas supply. Industry communications indicate domestic primary aluminum output rose approximately 3.5% year-on-year over the first five months. Demand side: Elevated aluminum prices weighed on domestic end-user consumption, yet a stronger LME premium relative to Shanghai aluminum boosted semi-finished aluminum exports, offsetting weak domestic primary aluminum offtake. General Administration of Customs data records cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and semi-finished products at 2.685 million tonnes in Jan-May, up 10.4% YoY. April single-month exports hit 598,000 tonnes, a one-year-plus high, followed by May shipments of 632,000 tonnes, up 15.5% YoY. Robust export volumes effectively filled the gap left by muted domestic consumption. Inventory side: Q2 delivered a pronounced destocking cycle. Social inventories peaked at 1.465 million tonnes in early May before falling to 1.165 million tonnes by end-June, a total drawdown of around 300,000 tonnes with an accelerated destocking pace. Weekly inventory drawdowns once surged to 170,000 tonnes, a four-year high for single-week de-stocking volumes. 2. Fundamental Supply & Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply: High Smelting Margins Boost Operating Rates, New Capacity Ramp-Ups Keep H1 Supply Ample Persistently robust smelting profitability in H1 2026 significantly expanded production flexibility, acting as the core driver of loose supply conditions through the first half. On one hand, sustained aluminum price strength maintained healthy per-tonne margins, maximizing smelters’ production incentives. On the other hand, new projects commissioned from late 2025 through H1 2026 entered sequential ramp-up phases, delivering steady monthly output increments. Continuous volume growth from newly commissioned capacity further lifted domestic primary aluminum production. The combined effects drove steady gains in national primary aluminum output, resulting in abundant raw material supply across the market. 2.2 Demand: Muted Domestic Consumption, Exports Act as Key Support Domestic primary aluminum demand in H1 2026 displayed a clear divergence: soft domestic offtake offset by buoyant external demand. Persistently high aluminum prices suppressed downstream purchasing, yet semi-finished aluminum exports benefited from favourable cross-market price differentials and delivered standout performance. General Administration of Customs data shows China exported 1.435 million tonnes of aluminum semi-finished products in Jan-May 2026, up 13.7% YoY, with May single-month exports reaching 320,000 tonnes (+14.7% YoY). Elevated export volumes over the first five months created a vital outlet for domestic primary aluminum digestions. The core driver behind export strength was the LME-over-Shanghai price spread: overseas markets faced tight supply expectations stemming from Middle East production cuts, while bloated domestic inventories depressed Shanghai aluminum, creating lucrative profit windows for semi-finished aluminum exporters. 2.3 Inventories: H1 Inventory Build to Multi-Year Highs Followed by Rapid Q2 Destocking Domestic social primary aluminum inventories traversed three distinct phases in H1 2026: rapid accumulation, consolidation at elevated levels, then steep destocking. Early-year seasonal weakness ahead of the Lunar New Year combined with high aluminum prices curbing demand drove continuous inventory builds, which peaked at a multi-year high of 1.465 million tonnes in early May. Subsequent downstream post-holiday restocking and surging export shipments triggered accelerated inventory drawdowns through Q2. The sharp destocking rate stemmed from concentrated export deliveries paired with a wave of downstream replenishment demand. 3. H2 2026 Outlook 3.1 Macroeconomics: Strong US Dollar Caps Metal Valuations The US will maintain its strong-dollar policy stance, keeping the US Dollar Index elevated and capping valuation upside across non-ferrous metals. Middle Eastern geopolitical risk premiums will gradually fade amid improved shipping outlook for the Strait of Hormuz and easing overseas liquidity jitters, creating long-term bearish pressure on aluminum prices. 3.2 Supply: Overseas Capacity Resumptions & New Commissioning Run Parallel Overseas market developments include incremental production restarts across Middle Eastern smelters, alongside faster ramp-up schedules for newly commissioned overseas capacity. 3.3 Demand: Weakening Support from Export Orders Short-term backlogged orders will continue to underpin semi-finished aluminum export volumes, yet narrowing cross-market price spreads have softened market expectations for new export order intake, pointing to downside risks for export growth over the medium-to-long term. Market participants will closely monitor domestic seasonal peak consumption trends and overseas new order placement momentum. 4. Comprehensive Market Assessment All factors considered, the Shanghai aluminum market will face dual headwinds of macro valuation pressure and expanding supply volumes throughout H2 2026.