South Africa exported 123,310.23 tonnes of high-carbon ferrochrome in June 2026, down a modest 0.32% month-on-month but sharply lower — down 44.57% — year-on-year. The near-flat monthly reading suggests exports have found a temporary floor after an extended period of decline, but the scale of the annual drop confirms that South Africa's ferrochrome trade remains firmly on the back foot, in stark contrast to the chrome ore side of the business, which posted export volumes nearly 39% higher than a year earlier over the same month. Figure 1: South Africa high-carbon ferrochrome export volume and destination breakdown, June 2026 A Decline Rooted in the Smelters, Not the Market The subdued year-on-year performance is best explained by looking at what has been happening inside South Africa's ferrochrome furnaces rather than at demand abroad. Merafe Resources' H1 2026 production report, released in late July, showed the scale of the domestic problem directly: attributable ferrochrome production from the Glencore Merafe Chrome Venture collapsed 75% to just 28,000 tonnes, driven by extended suspensions at the Wonderkop and Boshoek smelters and a partial suspension at Lion. With a significant share of the country's ferrochrome-producing capacity effectively offline for much of the period being compared against, a steep year-on-year export decline is a direct, mechanical consequence of reduced output — not evidence that international buyers have gone elsewhere. Read this way, June's export weakness is a supply-side story, not a demand-side one. A Destination Mix That Looks Nothing Like Chrome Ore's China remained South Africa's largest ferrochrome destination in June, but at 31.56% of shipments, its share was far lower than the 67.61% it commanded in the equivalent chrome ore export data for the same month. That gap is telling: China's ferrochrome smelters are built to process imported raw chrome ore into alloy domestically, which is precisely why the country absorbs such an outsized share of South African ore but a comparatively smaller share of already-finished ferrochrome. South Korea's position as the second-largest destination, at 16.63%, fits the same logic from the opposite direction — Korea has limited domestic chrome ore resources and no comparable smelting base, so its stainless steel producers rely on imported semi-finished ferrochrome rather than ore. Together, the two destinations underscore how the ferrochrome trade is shaped by which countries can smelt their own ore and which cannot, a very different dynamic from the ore trade's concentration around Chinese furnace demand alone. A Possible Turning Point Ahead The timing of June's data is worth noting. Around the same period, Eskom and South Africa's ferrochrome producers reached a negotiated electricity tariff agreement, and Merafe subsequently announced the restart of the Wonderkop and Boshoek smelters at the very end of June. If that restart translates into a sustained production ramp-up through the second half of 2026, it raises the prospect that the worst of the year-on-year export declines may be behind the industry, with H2 2026 figures potentially beginning to narrow the gap against 2025 comparatives. That said, restarting idled smelters is rarely instantaneous, and the extent of any recovery will depend on how quickly output ramps back toward pre-suspension levels — a trend worth tracking closely over the coming months rather than assuming resolved. A Policy Backdrop Pulling in the Opposite Direction It's worth noting that ferrochrome sits on the other side of South Africa's chrome policy debate compared with raw ore. Where chrome ore exports have drawn government intervention — export permitting through ITAC and a proposed export tax, aimed specifically at discouraging raw shipments and pushing more material toward domestic beneficiation — ferrochrome is the very outcome that policy is designed to encourage more of. Seen against that backdrop, June's weak ferrochrome export figures represent something close to the opposite of the government's stated goal: less beneficiated product reaching export markets, even as raw ore shipments continue to climb. That contrast adds a layer of urgency to the smelter restart story, since a durable recovery in ferrochrome export volumes would be a more direct sign of the beneficiation strategy gaining traction than any adjustment to ore-export policy alone. A Note on Demand Resilience While South Korea's steady share of June shipments points to continued underlying buying interest, it's worth flagging that Chinese domestic high-carbon ferrochrome tender pricing had shown signs of softening in mid-July, with a bearish outlook for the following month's tender round. That suggests demand resilience may not be uniform across all destination markets, and is a detail worth weighing alongside the export volume data rather than assuming steady global demand across the board. Bottom Line June's ferrochrome export data tells a story of a market held down by supply constraints rather than weak demand, with a destination mix shaped by which countries smelt their own ore and which import the finished alloy. With Wonderkop and Boshoek now restarted and a new electricity tariff framework in place, the coming months will be the real test of whether South Africa's ferrochrome trade can begin closing the gap with 2025 levels, or whether the divergence between a booming chrome ore trade and a struggling ferrochrome trade becomes the defining feature of the country's chromium sector for the rest of 2026.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 27 – July 31, 2026. Conflicting RKAB supplementary quota signals and a hawkish Fed swing the benchmark contract to a RMB 30/mt gain in the week of August 3–7.

Next week, the key macroeconomic data will include the US July unadjusted CPI YoY rate, July retail sales MoM rate, and preliminary August one-year inflation expectations. On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East have eased. According to US media, Iran and Oman have reached a temporary agreement on the Strait of Hormuz issue; meanwhile, US President Trump again stated that military operations against Iran may end soon. In addition, the US will release several economic indicators next week, and markets will continue to monitor statements from Fed officials on future monetary policy. In the short term, the macro front remains highly uncertain, providing limited support for base metal prices. On the LME lead front, suppliers in markets outside China have been actively picking up goods recently, with LME lead inventory dropping by over 16,000 mt this week. However, considering the current overseas lead consumption situation, the supply shortage is mainly concentrated in 4N lead, while 3N lead trading remains sluggish. The market widely views this destocking as a result of inventory transfers rather than improvement in end-use consumption. Meanwhile, LME lead Cash-3M contango widened further to -$47.56/mt, also reflecting that expectations for spot consumption improvement remain limited. Attention should still be paid to developments in the Middle East and the Fed's monetary policy impact on the base metal market. Next week, LME lead is expected to continue its range-bound consolidation, trading at $1,870-1,915/mt. For SHFE lead, the accumulation of lead ingot social inventory is a normal phenomenon ahead of SHFE lead delivery. As delivery approaches next week, suppliers are expected to further increase shipments to delivery warehouses, and visible inventory may continue to rise, exerting some pressure on lead prices in the short term. However, on the supply side, maintenance shutdowns at major primary lead delivery brand smelters are gradually starting, which could become an important factor supporting lead prices in mid-to-late August. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to dip first and then stabilize and rebound, with a trading range of 15,450-15,900 yuan/mt. Spot lead price forecast: 15,400-15,650 yuan/mt. In the short term, downstream lead-acid battery enterprises are seeing both production recovery and output cuts, and consumption improvement remains limited, providing insufficient support for lead prices. On the supply side, maintenance shutdowns at primary lead smelters are increasing, and market availability of goods is expected to tighten gradually, with primary lead spot cargo likely to maintain a slight premium. If lead prices gradually recover, secondary lead enterprises' losses are expected to be repaired, and smelters' willingness to sell may pick up accordingly, with secondary refined lead trading at a discount likely to increase.

This week, nickel prices experienced wild swings dominated by Indonesia's RKAB supplementary quota policy. At the start of the week, nickel prices were in the doldrums, pressured by progress in US-Iran negotiations and growing expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Mid-week, news that a major mine had been approved for additional RKAB quotas ignited the market, sharply intensifying expectations of ample supply and sending SHFE nickel down to 127,460 yuan/mt. On Friday, Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that "the quota additions circulating in the market have not been approved," prompting a rebound in futures from the deep losses, with SHFE nickel recovering to 129,000-130,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 131,360 yuan/mt this week, down 2,700 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel cathode premiums remained stable this week at 1,100-1,200 yuan/mt. Mainstream electrodeposited nickel discounts were in the range of -200 to -400 yuan/mt, with electrodeposited nickel discounts narrowing. Spot market transactions recovered this week compared to last week, but overall purchasing sentiment remained subdued. The July US Fed meeting kept rates unchanged as expected, but its overall stance leaned hawkish, putting broad pressure on commodity valuations, with the base metals sector weakening collectively. A US Fed governor stated that if inflation fails to pull back, further policy tightening may be inevitable. The US-Iran situation showed a pattern of "détente first, then relapse." Early in the week, US-Iran negotiations continued to send signals of easing, and expectations for the Strait of Hormuz reopening rose. Trump said he was negotiating with Iran, with talks divided into two phases: the strait's opening and denuclearization. However, the situation later took a new turn—Iran's passage regulations for the Strait of Hormuz banned vessels from the US, Israel, and other hostile nations. A provisional strait transit agreement drafted by Iran and Oman also faced dual obstacles from US sanctions and insurance issues, leaving the strait's full reopening mired in resistance. Domestically, China’s July manufacturing PMI data indicated weak economic recovery momentum. On the inventory side, the Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory stood at approximately 1,400 mt this week, down 300 mt WoW. China's social inventory was around 133,000 mt, with a WoW buildup of approximately 2,000 mt. Nickel prices are currently in a state of high uncertainty, where policy expectations are swinging wildly, macro headwinds and geopolitical risks intertwine. They are expected to maintain wild swings in the short term, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract trading range at 125,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

“ In the critical period of global energy transition and the reshaping of the manufacturing landscape, the lead-zinc industry chain is undergoing profound structural adjustments. Upstream mine resources remained tight continuously, smelting and processing profits were under pressure, while downstream application fields represented by batteries and galvanizing faced opportunities and challenges from new technology iterations and green low-carbon transformation. Against this backdrop, collaboration and price risk management across the industry chain are more important than ever before. SMM deeply insights into industry needs and dedicates to creating a unique industry conference. This conference will focus on downstream applications and long-term contract supply-demand matching, aiming to build a high-end communication platform integrating macro outlook, price analysis, and long-term contract negotiations. The conference will not only analyze in depth the market trends of lead, zinc, precious metals, copper, tin, antimony, bismuth, and other associated metals, but also innovatively set up a long-term contract supply-demand negotiation meeting as a highlight, striving to help clients seize market opportunities in 2027 and foster business cooperation through precise data services and practical agenda design. In the golden autumn of October, we sincerely invite leading enterprises and elites of the lead-zinc industry chain from China and overseas to gather together, to have open exchanges and seek common development in a relaxed and pleasant negotiation atmosphere! Nandan County Zhenghua Non-Ferrous Metals Company will attend this grand event, discussing industry development trends with industry peers and jointly promoting the lead-zinc industry to a new height. Click on the to register immediately, and join us to witness and participate in this significant and far-reaching industry event, creating a new chapter of brilliance together! Nandan County Zhenghua Non-Ferrous Metals Company was founded in 2000, with a history of over 20 years. Located at Xiaoping Tun, Daping Village, Chehe Town, Nandan County (within Hechi-Nandan Non-Ferrous Metal New Material Industrial Park), the company is mainly engaged in non-ferrous metal rolling and processing. It completed construction of a lead-antimony smelting production process using the advanced "oxygen-enriched bottom side-blowing bath smelting-oxidation-reduction fuming triple furnace—smelting flue gas double conversion and double absorption acid-making" technology to process antimony-lead concentrates, gold-antimony ore, and comprehensively recover gold, silver, copper, and bismuth, and has a complete antimony industry chain deep processing enterprise. Designed total metal capacity is 45,000 mt/year, including antimony ingot (10,000 mt/year), antimony trioxide (10,000 mt/year), lead ingot (25,000 mt/year), silver ingot (100 mt), gold ingot (2 mt), sulfuric acid (60,000 mt), and comprehensive recovery of other valuable metals. Total investment is 850 million yuan, covering a total area of 172 mu. The company has obtained certifications for quality management system, environmental management system, occupational health and safety management system, and energy management system from the national quality certification center, and has been rated as a Guangxi S&T enterprise, high-tech enterprise, specialized and sophisticated enterprise, enterprise technical center, gazelle enterprise, and national-level green factory. Zhenghua Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. has a group of experienced and skilled management personnel, technical personnel, and operators, forming an excellent management team with high enforcement capability. The company has departments such as Office, Production Department, Safety and Environmental Protection Department, Finance Department, Operations Department, Logistics Department, Engineering Department, and Electrical and Mechanical Section, with over 400 employees, including 60 professional and technical personnel. Over the years, with the care and support from Party committees and governments at all levels, peers in the industry, and people from all walks of life, Zhenghua Company has been committed to the concepts of safe production, circular economy, green development, honest operation, and win-win cooperation, dedicated to serving users wholeheartedly, committed to gathering talents and building a first-class management team, and striving to advance towards the goal of "10 billion Zhenghua". Contact Information zhenghuayelian@163.com Long Press to Scan and Sign Up Now 2026 SMM Lead-Zinc Annual Conference

AI-Driven Electronic Fabric: From Supporting Material to Computing Power Base Electronic fabric (electronic-grade glass fiber cloth) is the core reinforcing substrate for copper clad laminate (CCL), which ultimately goes into printed circuit boards (PCB). In the past, electronic fabric was mostly used as a supporting material, but as AI servers dramatically raise requirements for PCB layer count, signal speed, and stability, low-dielectric (Low-Dk) and ultra-low-loss electronic fabric has become a rigid demand, upgrading electronic fabric into a core foundational material for computing and communication infrastructure. This demand boost has led to tighter supply and rising prices. Taking the operating data disclosed by industry leader Honghe Technology as an example, the average price of electronic-grade glass fiber cloth climbed from 4.51 yuan/meter in Q1 2025 to 9.78 yuan/meter in Q1 2026, a YoY increase of 116.85%. 2026 Expansion Panorama: An "Electronic Fabric Arms Race" Driven by AI demand, publicly listed firms across the industry chain densely disclosed electronic fabric project construction and capacity deployment plans in 2026, with capital expenditure intensity at a high level in recent years. Based on public information alone, the newly planned capacity of top-tier players is already considerable: China Jushi's electronic fabric sales reached 1.062 billion meters in 2025, ranking first in the industry; Jushi alone has announced approximately 570 million meters in new planned capacity over the past two months. Many enterprises are currently operating at full production and full sales. Glass Fiber Drawing and Pt-Rh Bushings The birth of electronic fabric begins at an ultra-high temperature of around 1600°C: raw materials like quartz sand and pyrophyllite are melted into molten glass, which flows through an alloy bushing precisely formulated with platinum and rhodium, streaming out from thousands of micron-scale nozzles. Pulled by high-speed drawing machines, it is stretched into glass fibers finer than human hair (down to below 9 microns). This bushing is the key component of a glass fiber production line and the entry point for platinum demand: Irreplaceability : In a 1300–1600°C molten glass environment, ordinary metals would rapidly oxidize, corrode, or even melt; only Pt-Rh alloy possesses the combined ability to withstand high temperatures, resist molten glass erosion, and conduct electrical heating for temperature control. Perpetual Consumable Attribute : Bushings undergo continuous wear under high-temperature scouring, with a service life of about 1–1.5 years (shorter for standard bushings; dispersion-strengthened bushings can reach 12–18 months), resulting in very strong repurchase demand. In 2025, the total in-service Pt-Rh bushing inventory across the industry reached 85.7 mt , with over 10,000 bushings in operation. Capital Expenditure Threshold : For a 100-kt level direct roving production line, the investment in Pt-Rh alloy alone has risen from approximately 200 million yuan to about 450 million yuan; each ton of electronic yarn produced requires about 6,300–6,900 yuan in Pt-Rh bushing input. Demand Volume : The global glass fiber industry has an annual platinum demand of approximately 700,000 ounces (about 21.8 mt). The platinum circulation volume involved in the full life cycle of bushings in China exceeds 3.5 million ounces (approximately 109 mt). The annual feed volume for bushing manufacturers doubled over the past five years. In 2025, the total global volume of platinum-rhodium bushings in service was approximately 85.7 mt, with over 10,000 bushings in operation. The bushing lifespan is about 1–1.5 years, requiring maintenance or replacement for over 10,000 units annually. China accounts for over 60% of global glass fiber capacity, making it the largest consumer market; correspondingly, the majority share of the in-service stock is concentrated in domestic production lines. Overall, electronic cloth has become another clear demand growth pole for platinum, following hydrogen energy. Platinum-rhodium alloy is the core consumable for glass fiber tank furnace drawing bushings. Establishing new production lines requires a substantial one-time initial feed, while ongoing volatilization losses during production constitute a continuous net consumption. This round of high-end PCB capacity expansion, driven by AI computing power, boosts both volume and price for electronic cloth, accelerating capacity deployment for ultra-thin and low-dielectric specialty cloth. This, in turn, leads to a dual increase in new bushing procurement and full-production loss, providing marginal growth for industrial platinum demand. In terms of scale, the overall demand of the glass fiber sector remains smaller than that of autocatalysts, but it exhibits high prosperity elasticity and strong linkage with the AI industry chain, representing a structural growth point on the platinum demand side that cannot be overlooked. Currently, the core pricing of platinum is still dominated by macro factors, mineral supply, and autocatalyst demand, while electronic cloth mainly amplifies the supply-demand tight balance expectations at the margin.