SMM News Flash: [Sheets & Plates] HRC export prices were quoted at 493-497 USD/tonne today, up 1 USD/tonne MoM. Recent market sources indicated that approximately 10,000 tonnes of Chinese HRC were traded at the Port of Sohar in Oman, Middle East, at a CFR price of around 560 USD/tonne, but this was insufficient to suggest a full demand recovery. [Saudi Arabia] Driven by rising scrap and logistics costs, Saudi steelmaker Hadeed has raised prices for the third time in April. The specific adjustments are as follows: rebar (12-32mm) increased by 21 USD/tonne to 704 USD/tonne (CPT Riyadh, excluding 15% VAT); wire rod (7-14mm) increased by 37 USD/tonne to 717 USD/tonne.

In March, total exports of copper wire rod (HS codes 74081100 and 74081900) weakened, showing a MoM decline but YoY growth. The specific data are as follows: According to customs data, in terms of total copper cathode wire rod exports, total exports of copper cathode wire rod (HS code 74081100, 74081900) in March were down 1.27% MoM but up 73.71% YoY. Among them, exports of refined copper wire with a maximum cross-section dimension >6mm were 13,600 mt, down 21.73% MoM but up 100.86% YoY. Exports of other refined copper wire were 11,900 mt per month, up 40.79% MoM and up 50.47% YoY. In March 2026, exports of copper wire rod (HS code 74081100, 74081900) declined MoM, primarily due to chain reactions triggered by escalating geopolitical conflicts, compounded by a cyclical pullback in the prior export pace. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts disrupted international shipping and drove up logistics costs, significantly increasing the difficulty and cost of exports. This, combined with the onset of the off-season following the concentrated release of earlier orders, collectively dragged down exports. By specific trade mode, in March 2026, processing trade with imported materials accounted for 58.55% of total copper wire rod exports, processing trade with supplied materials accounted for 26.9%, Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area accounted for 11.83%, and Ordinary Trade accounted for 2.71%. By country, in March, copper wire rod was mainly exported to Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and India, with combined exports accounting for over 70% of the national total. Notably, Saudi Arabia's ranking pulled back sharply from first to seventh place, with exports plunging 87.4% MoM. This was mainly due to the continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which weakened domestic demand in Saudi Arabia and slowed down the procurement pace in infrastructure, power grid, and other sectors. Compounded by disruptions in regional shipping, logistics, and customs clearance, trade flows were hampered, leading to a decline in exports. In summary, copper wire rod exports pulled back MoM in March, mainly due to the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts and periodic disruptions in shipping logistics. Overseas trade channels were obstructed, shipping schedules were extended, and transport capacity was tight, causing the export pace to slow down significantly. Entering April, as geopolitical tensions gradually eased, shipping and trade conditions improved. Combined with the gradual recovery of downstream procurement demand outside China, overall copper wire rod exports in April are expected to rebound MoM.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,240.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,295/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to $13,182.5/mt, followed by wild swings, and finally closed at $13,242/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 287,000 lots, a decrease of 2,451 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,350 yuan/mt, rose to 102,510 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to 101,700 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 102,290 yuan/mt, down 0.09%, with trading volume at 28,500 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, an increase of 820 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

On April 16, 2026, the stainless steel market saw major shifts. The EU's move to cut quotas by 47% and double tariffs to 50% in July triggered panic buying in Europe. India extended BIS certification until late September to ensure supply flexibility. Supported by Indonesia’s HPM formula adjustments, export prices remain firm, with slight gains in Foshan 304 spot prices. Rising logistics costs due to Middle East tensions and new trade barriers are collectively pushing up global trade expenses.

Copper prices edged lower as traders focused on potential US-Iran peace negotiations and a possible ceasefire extension. Easing geopolitical tensions could reduce energy and logistics costs, removing part of the risk premium that had supported copper prices.

Nickel Ore " RKAB Approval Delays and Policy Shifts Expected to Drive Nickel Ore Prices Higher" This week, the price of domestic nickel ore in Indonesia has increased. In the first half of April, the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) was set at $17,093 per dry metric ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.37%. According to SMM's Indonesian nickel ore premium data, the average premiums for laterite nickel ore with grades of 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% were reported at $37.5, $41.5, and $42 per wet metric ton respectively. Among them, the domestic arrival price for 1.6% grade nickel ore was $69.2–75.2 per wet metric ton. The dual strengthening of premiums this month reflects the release of smelters' restocking demand and pessimistic expectations regarding the reduction of RKAB quotas. Meanwhile, the delivery price of 1.2% grade hydrometallurgical ore has also increased to $27–30 per wet metric ton. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, as of April 10, 2026, according to the forecast of the Indonesian Meteorological Agency BMKG, core nickel ore producing regions such as Morowali, Kolaka, and Halmahera will face continuous moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms this week, with humidity expected to approach the saturation level of 99%. Under the combined effect of active atmospheric waves and thick clouds, this extremely humid and changeable weather is expected to continue to constrain the mining efficiency of open-pit mines, slow down logistics and transportation, and further increase the operational difficulty of high-moisture management during the shipping process of laterite nickel ore. The current market is facing an obvious trend of grade decline. Although some NPI smelters have begun to accept ore with a grade of 1.45% and below, pyrometallurgical ore remains tight in April. Currently, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia announced to the media on April 6, 2026, that approximately 190 million to 200 million tons of nickel production quotas in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) have been approved. At present, some mining enterprises have received preliminary notices from the government regarding the latest quota indicators, but most enterprises have yet to obtain the final approved data. The market generally expects that the final approved amount of the 2026 RKAB will be officially finalized in the second week of April. In terms of demand, due to the resource uncertainty faced by some smelters in Indonesia and the difficulty in obtaining high-grade nickel ore, prices have shown strong performance. To ensure raw material supply, some smelters have even increased trade bonuses. Hydrometallurgical Ore Additionally, there have been some transactions of low-grade saprolite ore in the market, with its fixed price relatively lower than that of high-grade ore. Following the significant increase in the price of pyrometallurgical ore, the price of limonite has also risen, aiming to further stimulate the sales enthusiasm of mines. In terms of shipping costs, affected by the increase in domestic fuel prices in Indonesia, inter-island logistics costs have shown an upward trend. It is estimated that as the RKAB quotas of mines are gradually issued in the future, freight demand will further increase, and domestic shipping costs may face a new round of upward pressure at that time. On the policy side, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia is finalizing the review of the calculation formula for the Mineral Reference Price (HPM) of nickel ore and plans to officially implement it within April 2026. Tri Winarno, the Director General of the Mineral and Coal Directorate, pointed out that the current HPM can no longer accurately reflect the current market price, especially failing to cover the "market premium" actually paid by smelters. Although the regulatory details for specific products such as NPI and MHP still await finalization by inter-ministerial bodies, judging from the current policy trend, this may indicate that the era of tax-free exports of nickel intermediate products from Indonesia is coming to an end. Looking ahead to the after-market, the continuous tightening of Indonesia's policies is expected to open up further upward space for nickel ore prices and have a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain. Overall, affected by potential major policy adjustments in Indonesia in the future, market uncertainty has increased, supporting the continuous volatile strengthening of Indonesia's nickel ore prices. Nickel Pig Iron "High-Grade NPI Under Short-Term Pressure Amid Upstream-Downstream Tug-of-War " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price dropped by RMB 2.25 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1080.25 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.43 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 137.01 per nickel unit. High-grade NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) market conditions generally remained steady. As transaction levels stabilized, the market entered a period of tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players, leaving prices under short-term pressure. From the supply side, the center of upstream quotes continued to drift slightly lower. The market has seen a notable increase in the availability of stainless steel scrap. Under the dual weight of weak terminal demand and the cost-effectiveness of scrap, upstream quotes for high-grade NPI are increasingly showing signs of softening. In Indonesia, domestic nickel ore prices have risen, and the market is grappling with a clear decline in ore grades; consequently, the supply of saprolite for pyrometallurgical processing remains tight for April. In the stainless steel spot market, social inventory levels remain at absolute highs. Despite significant pressure to move shipments, steel mills are maintaining high production rates. While there is some support from the cost side, the mills themselves are facing heavy internal cost pressures. Furthermore, with the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap becoming more prominent, mills have low tolerance for high-priced NPI and are maintaining a cautious procurement stance. In summary, NPI prices remain locked in a short-term stalemate between upstream and downstream. Influenced by competition from scrap and limited buying interest from stainless steel mills, prices continue to face overhead pressure.