SMM, February 28 news： In February 2026, China's secondary lead market was squeezed by three factors—the holiday effect, high costs, and weak demand—leading to a significant pullback in production as expected, with industry operations characterized by "weak supply and demand and profit margins under pressure." Data showed that secondary lead production in February 2026 fell as expected by 140,000 mt, plunging 40.38% MoM and dropping 2.19% YoY; secondary refined lead output decreased 45.18% MoM and declined 11.36% YoY. In terms of the causes of production cuts, the primary factors were fewer calendar days in the month combined with the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday, which led to widespread shutdowns or production cuts at mainstream secondary lead smelters across the country. Worker departures for the holiday pushed operating rates to low levels, with particularly sharp declines in core production areas such as Jiangsu and Henan due to delayed worker returns and logistics constraints. Pressure on the cost side further exacerbated the scale of production cuts: before the holiday, scrap battery prices remained high due to recyclers' reluctance to sell, pushing up secondary lead smelting costs, while lead prices continued to trend weakly during the same period, causing widespread losses among secondary lead enterprises. Theoretical comprehensive profit/loss margins for large-scale producers were in negative territory, with small and medium-sized enterprises facing even more severe losses. Weakness on the demand side created a dual suppression: downstream battery producers entered the holiday early, causing lead ingot purchase willingness to hit rock bottom, while smelters' finished product inventories continued to accumulate, further dampening production enthusiasm among enterprises and ultimately leading to a sharp contraction in secondary lead output in February. Looking ahead to March, China's secondary lead market is expected to see a clear corrective rebound, with production forecast to increase by about 70,000 mt compared to February. The core driver of this trend is the comprehensive resumption of work and production across the industry chain after the holiday. With workers returning in concentration after the Lantern Festival, secondary lead smelters will enter a period of concentrated production resumptions, and some enterprises have indicated that they can resume operating at full capacity by mid-March. Gradual recovery in downstream demand will provide solid support for the production rebound: battery producers are resuming work successively, pre-holiday accumulated lead ingot inventories are entering a digestion cycle, and purchase willingness is expected to continue improving. Meanwhile, some secondary lead enterprises need to ramp up production to fulfill long-term contract delivery obligations, further driving up operating rates. On the raw material side, the scrap battery recycling market is gradually recovering after the holiday, and smelters' raw material inventories are expected to be replenished, easing supply constraints. Although enterprises still face certain profit pressures, with the combined effects of demand recovery, order support, and inventory digestion, production enthusiasm in the secondary lead industry is expected to improve significantly. Output in March is likely to achieve a substantive rebound, and industry operations will gradually return to normal.

SMM February 26, the total inventory of the two major stainless steel markets in Wuxi and Foshan showed a further inventory buildup trend this week, decreasing from 894,500 mt on February 12, 2026 to 1.0161 million mt on February 26, 2026, up 13.59% WoW. Social inventory of stainless steel increased significantly this week. Currently, the Chinese New Year holiday has begun, with downstream end-users and stainless steel traders on holiday, leading to a complete suspension of market transactions; major public warehouses are mostly in a "inbound-only, no outbound" state, causing cargo flow to stall. Although road transport was largely suspended, and some steel mills entered maintenance shutdowns, resulting in a significant drop in monthly production, downstream demand completely halted. Meanwhile, state-owned steel mills maintained normal production, and large steel mills' rail transport remained unaffected, with continuous cargo arrivals at warehouses, directly driving a substantial accumulation in stainless steel social inventory this week. In terms of the nature of the inventory buildup, historical data show that stainless steel social inventory typically experiences a significant seasonal buildup during the Chinese New Year holiday, which is a normal market pattern; additionally, some cargo awaiting pick-up had not yet been warehoused, further boosting inventory growth. Combined with the recent continuous rise in stainless steel prices, market expectations for a strong recovery in the post-holiday "Golden March, Silver April" peak consumption season are high. Overall, the significant inventory buildup this week was mainly driven by the Chinese New Year holiday, logistics constraints, downstream shutdowns, and continued supply from some steel mills, rather than being caused by a fundamental supply-demand imbalance. Although short-term inventory exceeded one million metric tons and market transactions halted, supported by rising prices, the rationality of seasonal inventory buildup, and optimistic expectations for post-holiday consumption recovery, overall market confidence remained firm. The short-term substantial inventory accumulation did not significantly suppress the market's long-term positive trend.

SMM February 12, the total stainless steel inventory in Wuxi and Foshan markets showed a further buildup trend this week (February 6–12, 2026), decreasing from 868,600 mt on February 5, 2026 to 894,500 mt on February 12, 2026, up 2.98% WoW. This week, social inventory of stainless steel continued to rise. SS futures were driven by news related to Indonesian nickel ore approvals, showing a strengthening and upward trend mid-week, providing some sentiment support to the market. Ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, trading activity gradually cooled, with most traders already on holiday, leading to few actual transactions during the week. Coupled with the gradual suspension of logistics, some public warehouses were in a "inbound-only, no outbound" state, hindering the flow of goods and directly driving a noticeable increase in stainless steel social inventory this week. In terms of the nature of the inventory buildup, stainless steel social inventory typically experiences a seasonal rise during the Chinese New Year holiday period, which aligns with normal market patterns. Moreover, current inventory levels remain in the lower range, and the short-term accumulation has not created supply pressure. Combined with market optimism for the post-holiday "Golden March, Silver April" peak consumption season, market confidence is relatively strong. Overall, this week’s inventory buildup was mainly driven by the approaching Chinese New Year holiday, logistics constraints, and seasonal factors. Despite sluggish short-term transactions and rising inventory, supported by periodic futures strength, low inventory levels, and optimistic post-holiday expectations, overall market confidence remains solid, and the short-term seasonal inventory accumulation has not significantly suppressed the market’s long-term trend.

SMM, February 13: During the week of February 6-12, 2026, the weekly operating rate for secondary lead in four provinces monitored by SMM was 38.86%, basically flat WoW. Operating enterprises in Anhui that faced production restrictions last week due to environmental protection-related controls resumed operations this week. Notably, additional enterprises in Anhui suspended production for holidays this weekend, and the regional operating rate is expected to drop by 8.87 percentage points next week. Operating rates in Henan and Inner Mongolia remained stable. As next week falls during the Chinese New Year period, some local enterprises still have expectations for production cuts; the weekly operating rate is projected to decrease by 3-4 percentage points. This week, the operating rate in Jiangsu dropped by 6.58 percentage points due to workers leaving factories for the holiday, coupled with factors like logistics constraints and sluggish sales of finished products. The operating rate in Jiangsu is expected to decline by over 10 percentage points next week. 》Order and View SMM Historical Spot Metal Prices

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Polysilicon Costs Redefined, Module Prices Temporarily Hold Steady] Over the weekend, the quoted price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 48.2-59 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index stood at 52.58 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 49-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained temporarily stable over the weekend, while the related cost verification results were released. It is understood that the full tax-inclusive cost of polysilicon may be set at 54.125 yuan/kg, and manufacturers might make minor adjustments based on their individual costs.

As of Thursday this week, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index stood at 31,939 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate between 31,700-32,800 yuan/mt. The average price edged down WoW.